Cheetah786
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The new Chinese fighter-bomber today represents little threat to the Russian share of the fighter market. Even in China the J-10 is unlikely to compete with the license-produced Su-27 or the imported Su-30MK. However, everything about the current version of the J-10 that we have seen says that it is a transitional model. Already Chengdu is moving toward a two-engine version that would incorporate LO geometry and expanded air-to-ground capability.
Looking at the striking progress of the J-10 (especially in comparison to Russia's own slow-paced development of the next-generation interceptor MFI and the attack aircraft LFS) it should be expected that the future development of the J-10 may be only 3-6 years away. And this will be the aircraft that may eventually encroach on Russia's traditional fighter export market and not just Russia's. This may happen sooner than many Russian and Western analysts believe today. For Russia the J-10 and its derivatives may be what the MiG-15 was for the West half-a-century ago: a rather unpleasant surprise.
Russians had to reproduce a Rolls-Royce jet in secret and at great expense to put it on its MiG-15. Today there is no need for such extreme measures: all essential advanced components are readily available. What really matters is experience with integrating these systems to produce a fighter aircraft. The J-10 clearly shows that China is rapidly gaining this experience.
The new Chinese fighter-bomber will be a welcome addition to the PLAAF, considerably boosting the service's tactical offensive capabilities. Taiwan's Western technological edge is quickly melting away and China's military buildup inevitably leads to restoring the country's territorial integrity. The J-10 is a significant piece of this great wall being built around Taiwan.
Looking at the striking progress of the J-10 (especially in comparison to Russia's own slow-paced development of the next-generation interceptor MFI and the attack aircraft LFS) it should be expected that the future development of the J-10 may be only 3-6 years away. And this will be the aircraft that may eventually encroach on Russia's traditional fighter export market and not just Russia's. This may happen sooner than many Russian and Western analysts believe today. For Russia the J-10 and its derivatives may be what the MiG-15 was for the West half-a-century ago: a rather unpleasant surprise.
Russians had to reproduce a Rolls-Royce jet in secret and at great expense to put it on its MiG-15. Today there is no need for such extreme measures: all essential advanced components are readily available. What really matters is experience with integrating these systems to produce a fighter aircraft. The J-10 clearly shows that China is rapidly gaining this experience.
The new Chinese fighter-bomber will be a welcome addition to the PLAAF, considerably boosting the service's tactical offensive capabilities. Taiwan's Western technological edge is quickly melting away and China's military buildup inevitably leads to restoring the country's territorial integrity. The J-10 is a significant piece of this great wall being built around Taiwan.