Revised Data of Import of only goods stand at August 2021 is 6.5 billion dollar, Deficit is at 4.3 billion dollar and CAD will above June 2021 numebrs

[Desprado]

So you agree CAD is bad..uptill now zero % patwaris agree to this

I am in your group..i believe 2% CAD is okay but pushing it 6% is psuhing your luck(like 2018)at current gdp levels 6b$ per year of CAD is acceptable and will not drop the reserves
So what was the deficit in last 6 months?
Trade deficit of GOODS is meaningless..doesnt mean anything

Of course. It is a debt no matter who borrows it and it paid by us not PTI, PPP or PMLN.

CAD is debt good or bad it is debt and have to returned to lenders.

 

[HammerHead081]

Exactly. A sustainable growth is when exports or foreign exchange reserves grow naturally View attachment 775762

I am going to start reporting every single of these graphic posts of your because you spam these pictures in every single economic thread and it has started to get very annoying. Here i am enjoying my time reading through all posts and behold your shitty low effort copy pasted pictures come up.

both @Desprado and @hydrabadi_arab are saying this is not the time for growth, it bring more problems than solutions

am I correct or missing something?

If we agree with them, what's their reasoning?
how is not growing at 6% plus a solution

No point in 5.5% + gdp growth rate until our exports start to rise up significantly. If we keep at this rate, rupee will keep on depreciating. The cycle will continue.

 

[Pak Nationalist]

Revised Data of Import of August 2021 is 6.5 billion dollar.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1434185569664393216

Trade Deficit

https://twitter.com/x/status/1434186282557640705

Can it much beyond when RLNG prices updates come to effect.

Reza Baqir August Statement before getting IMF 2.75 billion dollar

"high current account deficit could reverse progress of a country if it impacts the exchange rate or reduce foreign exchange reserves."

So now ,which loillpop do you suggest he give on Monetary Policy in September 27th? As exchange rate ka to rape hochuka.

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2315131/high-current-account-deficit-not-worrying-baqir

According to Samiuallah Tariq. Most of the increase is due to import SUV, Luxury cars, and Luxury hosing stuff.

So you can expect 100% more CAD than June 2021 had.

This here is the reason why FBR has been posting stellar revenue figures. Custom duties are raking a fortune. Exports aren't growing at the same pace even after all the freebies thrown at the exports sector while keeping low interest rates fixed for over a year now. In fact, the cost of production will begin (has begun) rising after the devaluation of PKR, which makes imports expensive (most of our exports are reliant on imported inputs). Add debt servicing costs to the outflows from imports, and the situation that emerges is far direr than it was at the eve of this government's ushering.

 

[Desprado]

yeah Tareen wants growth and we can theatrically grow at 6-8% in a year or two - not that big of an issue

but the issue was these problems

can we handle these issues?

if not than what's the solution
not grow and stay stagnant for the time being? - what's the guarantee that it'll fix the issue?

Growth is myth till we do not have 40 to 50 billion dollar reserve.

If we want growth than we will 100% have to end IMF program maturely in 2023.

We can only have 2 to 3% of growth we do not have reserve, which are earned through inflows, FDI, and export as simple as that. This growth is causing problem to currency because the growth is fully deepened on imports not exports and that we always early heat up our growth in just second gear because we are borrowing to fill gaps of our CAD through loans because we are not getting proper FDI, investments and exports.

Pakistan can never go for growth of 4% as unless we have 6 months of Import cover.

We only have 3.1 months of import cover due to 6.3 billion dollar is the average of our import in Since june 2021.

In 2017 we had 4 months of import bill cover

In 2018 mid we had 2.5 months of import bill cover from there nothing has changed because our import got dam high.


If our import cover goes to 2.1 months below than no one will going to lend us loan and we cannot launch International bond as well. Shaukat Tarin with pace is trying his best our import cover gets very short and small.

 

[HammerHead081]

This here is the reason why FBR has been posting stellar revenue figures. Exports aren't growing at the same pace even after all the freebies thrown at them while keeping low interest rates fixed for over a year now. Custom duties are raking a fortune. In fact, the cost of production will begin (has begun) rising after the devaluation of PKR, which makes imports expensive (most of our exports are reliant on imported inputs). Add debt servicing costs to the outflows from imports, and the situation that emerges is far direr than it was at the eve of this government's ushering.

From what i understand, the government at first was required to control CAD. It was successfully able to do so. But then afterwards what was expected was increase in exports through different policies, keeping the GDP growth rate up while controlling the CAD as well.

The government at the moment is miserably failing at this. They are even damaging the economy more so now with higher GDP growth rate and letting CAD loose with it. We all knew that our exports were import dependent and it is proven again with more CAD that they are still so. We need to keep our GDP growth rate lower until our exports actually start to rise up significantly otherwise we will be back at square one.

 

[Desprado]

Next month this growth will be graveyard as IMF will now jack up interest too high that shouting will through the roof as IMF will not allow us even 1 million dollar of CAD as we have exhausted up 2.5 billion dollar CAD commitment.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1434445749299855360

 

[Desprado]

From what i understand, the government at first was required to control CAD. It was successfully able to do so. But then afterwards what was expected was increase in exports through different policies, keeping the GDP growth rate up while controlling the CAD as well.

The government at the moment is miserably failing at this. They are even damaging the economy more so now with higher GDP growth rate and letting CAD loose with it. We all knew that our exports were import dependent and it is proven again with more CAD that they are still so. We need to keep our GDP growth rate lower until our exports actually start to rise up significantly otherwise we will be back at square one.

Because they totally depend on devaluation policy it will reduce import and increase export, which fall flat on the face. In fact, even after major devaluation import increase massively and export reduced since June 2021.

Problem is Inflation, electricity prices after devaluation, labor wages, support import for export products, R&D, and no FDI.

Devaluation need balance and no where world excessive devaluation or overvalued currency leads to reduction in imports or increase in export in fact it always increase imports.


PTI devalued currency too much and now PTI it self defeated their view of 3 years that devaluation makes export growth and import reduction.


PMLN overvalued currency too much.


Currency needs balance and stability.

 

[Pak Nationalist]

From what i understand, the government at first was required to control CAD. It was successfully able to do so. But then afterwards what was expected was increase in exports through different policies, keeping the GDP growth rate up while controlling the CAD as well.

The government at the moment is miserably failing at this. They are even damaging the economy more so now with higher GDP growth rate and letting CAD loose with it. We all knew that our exports were import dependent and it is proven again with more CAD that they are still so. We need to keep our GDP growth rate lower until our exports actually start to rise up significantly otherwise we will be back at square one.

I believe that exports would not grow at a quantum that is sufficient to bridge our external account deficits in the short term. Greater FDI, therefore, is the only thing that could relieve pressure from the imbalance in our external financial positions. Moreover, whenever our economy begins to grow, and aggregate demand builds up, the imports increase rapidly. Even our exports are largely dependant on imported inputs/raw materials. Look at the textile sector; for instance, cotton is being imported (we once used to export raw cotton), synthetic yarn/filament is being imported without which most textiles could not be produced in today's world. So, growing exports without seeing growth in imports is not possible unless we work on import substitution by developing downstream sectors like agriculture and downstream industries. The government has put in some work in import substitution (nascent cell phone industry is an example), but the severity of challenges requires a far more robust response. Keeping GDP growth at lower levels is not an option for political reasons. Our public faced a double whammy of covid and the 2018 economic meltdown. The purchasing power of the lower-middle-income groups has declined, and a sizeable portion of households from this income group have, in fact, fallen into poverty due to inflation and job losses. Any political government has to be responsive to such a plight if it wishes to get back to power. 2007-2012 ended PPP as a national party due to its inability to deliver on key fronts. PTI could face the same fate. That is why the realities of political economy would dictate growth-related policies more than anything else.

 

[SQ8]

The number of brand new Toyota Land cruisers and LX570s have never been higher - that tells you the 1% elite in Pakistan have grown(but not exceeding that 1% only relative to the population growth) and are loaded. Yet, doesn’t look like they are being taxed at all because that relative tax would have also increased FBR revenue by a larger percentage.

 

[HammerHead081]

I believe that exports would not grow at a quantum that is sufficient to bridge our external account deficits in the short term. Greater FDI, therefore, is the only thing that could relieve pressure from the imbalance in our external financial positions. Moreover, whenever our economy begins to grow, and aggregate demand builds up, the imports increase rapidly. Even our exports are largely dependant on imported inputs/raw materials. Look at the textile sector; for instance, cotton is being imported (we once used to export raw cotton), synthetic yarn/filament is being imported without which most textiles could not be produced in today's world. So, growing exports without seeing growth in imports is not possible unless we work on import substitution by developing downstream sectors like agriculture and downstream industries. The government has put in some work in import substitution (nascent cell phone industry is an example), but the severity of challenges requires a far more robust response. Keeping GDP growth at lower levels is not an option for political reasons. Our public faced a double whammy of covid and the 2018 economic meltdown. The purchasing power of the lower-middle-income groups has declined, and a sizeable portion of households from this income group have, in fact, fallen into poverty due to inflation and job losses. Any political government has to be responsive to such a plight if it wishes to get back to power. 2007-2012 ended PPP as a national party due to its inability to deliver on key fronts. PTI could face the same fate. That is why the realities of political economy would dictate growth-related policies more than anything else.

But you know that if they keep at this, the rupee will keep on devaluing further and further unless they use forex reserves? Making the situation even worse.

 

[Pak Nationalist]

PS. reducing CAD is no big deal. You jack up the interest rate and enforce heavy duties to discourage imports, and the current account deficit begins coming down. All 3 govts since the Mush era (PPP, PML N & PTI) have been fairly successful in bringing down CAD. The real challenge is undertaking reforms to address this recurrent problem once and for all. That entails increasing exports drastically, import substitution, and attracting higher levels of FDI. That is where all governments have not been able to deliver.

 

[Desprado]

I believe that exports would not grow at a quantum that is sufficient to bridge our external account deficits in the short term. Greater FDI, therefore, is the only thing that could relieve pressure from the imbalance in our external financial positions. Moreover, whenever our economy begins to grow, and aggregate demand builds up, the imports increase rapidly. Even our exports are largely dependant on imported inputs/raw materials. Look at the textile sector; for instance, cotton is being imported (we once used to export raw cotton), synthetic yarn/filament is being imported without which most textiles could not be produced in today's world. So, growing exports without seeing growth in imports is not possible unless we work on import substitution by developing downstream sectors like agriculture and downstream industries. The government has put in some work in import substitution (nascent cell phone industry is an example), but the severity of challenges requires a far more robust response. Keeping GDP growth at lower levels is not an option for political reasons. Our public faced a double whammy of covid and the 2018 economic meltdown. The purchasing power of the lower-middle-income groups has declined, and a sizeable portion of households from this income group have, in fact, fallen into poverty due to inflation and job losses. Any political government has to be responsive to such a plight if it wishes to get back to power. 2007-2012 ended PPP as a national party due to its inability to deliver on key fronts. PTI could face the same fate. That is why the realities of political economy would dictate growth-related policies more than anything else.

It will decline more if the currency devalues to 170-175. Major inflation will come and growth will be full stop because everything will be expensive and imports will be waste of time.

Government has put emergency on food items and this is only done by country when it is BOP aur economic crisis like Argentina or Sri Lanka.

 

[Pak Nationalist]

But you know that if they keep at this, the rupee will keep on devaluing further and further unless they use forex reserves? Making the situation even worse.

Devaluation of PKR could keep making imports expensive till a plateau arrives in theory. The one drawback of this strategy is making exports uncompetitive by increasing the cost of production (input costs that are mostly imported). Inflation is another problem that would have ramifications for the political government. There is some speculation that the incumbents want to call an early election. That is why the taps have been opened prematurely. Before the public begins feeling too much pain from bouts of devaluation, the incumbents want to try their luck at the polls.

 

[Desprado]

Devaluation of PKR could keep making imports expensive till a plateau is reached in theory. The one drawback of this strategy is making exports uncompetitive by increasing the cost of production (input costs that are mostly imported). Inflation is another problem that would have ramifications for the political government. There is some speculation that the incumbents want to call an early election. That is why the taps have been opened prematurely. Before the public begins feeling too much pain from bouts of devaluation, the incumbents want to try their luck at the polls.

Also increase in electricity prices for industries so exports hurts more than Imports and CAD remains the issue.

The pain will start from next month as inflation will be very high and IMF program will start with many hard condition, which will and we have to do it and we have no choice. What ever it takes we will start IMF program because every import products prices are very high and we do not have dollars and we have to pay 14.5 billion debt this FY. Moreover, PTI will never call early election as 8.5% inflation is too high.

 

[Shahzaz ud din]

Sir Pakistan never witnessed 4.3 billion trade deficit in one month and even currency was PKR 100 against dollar. Something is very wrong and Market base currency has flopped.

And sir reserve excuse. In 2017, Overvalued currency we still had 4 months of import cover, now with 6.3 billion dollar ratio of 3 months we have only 3.1 months of import.

Some people mocked and you trying while said all the something 2 months back and people did not believed and mocked me.

As for CAD. Our CAD of August alone will me more than entire FY year of FY 2021. You can screenshot it.

Indian false flager