There's nothing for Canada to fear in those fertility rates
By Douglas Todd, Vancouver Sun July 2, 2010
In the old days in Canada, Protestants and non-religious citizens used to complain that Roman Catholic women gave birth to far too many babies.
With the Vatican forbidding couples to use artificial birth control, people feared followers of the Pope would overtake the country through fertility -- simply by force of their extra children.
But now Statistics Canada says Catholic women are giving birth to fewer babies than the average female Canadian. And independent polling shows most Canadian Catholics are quietly ignoring the ban on contraception.
However, the Western public's fear about women of a certain religious persuasion being too fertile has not disappeared. It's just shifted targets.
Now many people, including Canadians, are anxious about Islamic mothers bringing too many babies into the world.
Some fear-filled North American commentators have predicted that Europe will be 40-per-cent Muslim by 2020, fuelled by birthrates. They claim it would be more accurate to refer to Europe as "Eurabia."
It's a wild exaggeration. But, as with most stereotypes, there is a kernel of truth behind the belief Muslim women generally have more babies.
A long-ignored Statistics Canada report on fertility rates among women of different religions shows Muslim women in this country on average have 2.4 babies.
That compares with the national average of 1.6 babies per woman.
After Muslims, Canadian Hindu women are the second most fertile by religion, delivering 2.0 babies per woman, followed by Sikhs (1.8) and Jews (1.7).
Canadian Catholic women now give birth to an average of 1.5 children, a fraction below that of Protestants and a bit above women who have no religion. The least fertile Canadian women, by religion, are Buddhists.
Why do members of some religions have more children? Demographers suggest the complex answer lies in a mixture of doctrine and national cultures.
The holy books of Judaism, Christianity and Islam were written in eras when everyone agonized about infants dying young. As a result, scholars say, these scriptures tend to be pro-procreation. However, even though Roman Catholic prelates have interpreted the Bible to be anti-contraception and opposed to abortion, many Protestant Christians do not read it the same way. Similarly, Muslims have different ways of interpreting the Koran when it comes to fertility.
Separate from religion, birthrates are tied to local cultures and ethnic customs. On ethnicity alone, the lowest birthrates in Canada are among white, Chinese, Japanese and especially Korean women, all slightly below the national birthrate average (and well below the "replacement level" of 2.1).
In addition, even though Roman Catholic birthrates in Canada are roughly the same as the national norm, Filipino Canadian women, most of whom are Catholic, have a higher rate -- 1.8 births per woman.
In much the same way, the fertility rate among ethnic Arab women, who come to Canada from Muslim-majority countries, is also high, at 2.2 births per woman. Yet other Muslim women arrive in Canada from ethnic cultures with lower birthrates.
What's the upshot of all these figures? When the statistical analysis about religion and fertility is said and done, how rapidly will Muslim populations expand in the West?
Before offering the best projections, it's worth recognizing the demographic truism that women who emigrate from countries with high birthrates soon start having babies at roughly the same pace as women in their adopted country.
As a result, instead of Europe being 40-per-cent Muslim by 2020, responsible demographers project it will be only six-per-cent Muslim in a decade, a rise of two percentage points.
Statistics Canada has projected this country will be about seven-per-cent Muslim by 2031, up from four per cent. Christianity, in two decades, will account for 65-per-cent of Canadians.
Still, for those Canadians who continue to fear that high fertility and immigration will lead to the Muslim religion becoming dominant, there is another Statistics Canada figure to keep in mind. It is that most Canadian Muslims are not religiously active. Only two out of five Muslims in this country attend mosque once a month or more.
In other words, most Muslims, after moving to Canada, quickly begin accepting the country's overriding secular habits and values, including on fertility, just as most Catholic women have in the past 50 years.
Canadian fertility trends are fascinating to study, especially in regard to religion. But with so many important things to worry about in the world, Muslim birthrates do not need to be one of them.
dtodd@vancouversun.com
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