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RELATIONSHIP WITH US: PAKISTAN’S OPTIONS NOW
QASIM MEHMOOD QURESHI
MAY 23, 2016
If we look at the sequence of events, starting from Jan 2016 to May 2016, there is a strategic shift in Pak-US relations. Previously, State Department of US had informed its determination to sell eight fighter jets to Pakistan. Later, US withdrew funds for F-16 deal and demanded full payment without subsidy on the sale of F-16s. Pakistan has told the US in a response that it will look for alternatives if US failed to fulfil its commitment regarding F16s. This is not over yet, though. On May 6, media witnessed another move of US congress when its members suggested blocking financial aid to Pakistan. One can easily understand that this was not a sudden change in US polices towards Pakistan, rather a planned strategy. The speculations stemming from this move are that Pakistan alone was responsible for the weakening of security situation in Afghanistan. Nothing favorable is in foresight, for either the future of Pak-US relations or for peace process in Afghanistan.
US may want to use F-16s as leverage against Pakistan and for the same old thing ‘Do More’. US has been asking Pakistan for so long to take action against Haqqanis which they consider to be the main problem in Afghanistan but in reality the Haqqanis were never powerful or capable enough to tackle the NATO forces like they did previously against the Soviets. Congress has a perception that Pakistan is using the military aid to increase its nuclear stockpiles and not using the funds in war against terrorism. This is the phenomenon which Indian lobby is also propagating for so long though they don’t have any specific logic behind this perception. Indian lobby never wanted US to sell F-16 fighter jets to Pakistan because of the fear that they would be used against India after removing the terrorists from Pakistani territory or maybe they didn’t want Pakistan to get rid of terrorism and keep on getting targeted by the terrorists.
Refusal of F-16 fighter jet s to Pakistan will lead to some serious issues for both the countries. The domestic politics of both the states will take a slight change and policymakers in Pakistan will be forced to think about the reliability of US as an ally in this war. In such scenario, one can easily assume that USA doesn’t want Pakistan to be strong and pose any kind of threat to India or gain more influence in Afghanistan. In this critical moment when Congress is not playing its part, it doesn’t mean that Pakistan should become Iran or North Korea. Even if somehow GHQ and Pentagon work out F-16 deal and 450 million dollars military aid issues, it is evident that the interests of both the countries have come to a level where they can only be described as “colliding” or “contradictory”.
Still, Pakistan has two very important cards which can be put on table at any time; first by increasing the ties with Iran and second by using China to send a strong message to USA about the options Pakistan still has. Different analysts who believe that by denying the military aid of fighter jets, USA will squeeze Pakistan may not be entirely correct because things have changed now and Pakistan has been playing a bit independently in foreign relations which were considered to be dictated by the external powers previously. Pakistan’s policy in Yemen’s case and relations with Moscow and Iran can be taken as examples.
QASIM MEHMOOD QURESHI
The author is a student of International Relations in National Defense University, Islamabad
http://blogs.dunyanews.tv/13205/pak-us-relations-myths-facts/
QASIM MEHMOOD QURESHI
MAY 23, 2016
If we look at the sequence of events, starting from Jan 2016 to May 2016, there is a strategic shift in Pak-US relations. Previously, State Department of US had informed its determination to sell eight fighter jets to Pakistan. Later, US withdrew funds for F-16 deal and demanded full payment without subsidy on the sale of F-16s. Pakistan has told the US in a response that it will look for alternatives if US failed to fulfil its commitment regarding F16s. This is not over yet, though. On May 6, media witnessed another move of US congress when its members suggested blocking financial aid to Pakistan. One can easily understand that this was not a sudden change in US polices towards Pakistan, rather a planned strategy. The speculations stemming from this move are that Pakistan alone was responsible for the weakening of security situation in Afghanistan. Nothing favorable is in foresight, for either the future of Pak-US relations or for peace process in Afghanistan.
US may want to use F-16s as leverage against Pakistan and for the same old thing ‘Do More’. US has been asking Pakistan for so long to take action against Haqqanis which they consider to be the main problem in Afghanistan but in reality the Haqqanis were never powerful or capable enough to tackle the NATO forces like they did previously against the Soviets. Congress has a perception that Pakistan is using the military aid to increase its nuclear stockpiles and not using the funds in war against terrorism. This is the phenomenon which Indian lobby is also propagating for so long though they don’t have any specific logic behind this perception. Indian lobby never wanted US to sell F-16 fighter jets to Pakistan because of the fear that they would be used against India after removing the terrorists from Pakistani territory or maybe they didn’t want Pakistan to get rid of terrorism and keep on getting targeted by the terrorists.
Refusal of F-16 fighter jet s to Pakistan will lead to some serious issues for both the countries. The domestic politics of both the states will take a slight change and policymakers in Pakistan will be forced to think about the reliability of US as an ally in this war. In such scenario, one can easily assume that USA doesn’t want Pakistan to be strong and pose any kind of threat to India or gain more influence in Afghanistan. In this critical moment when Congress is not playing its part, it doesn’t mean that Pakistan should become Iran or North Korea. Even if somehow GHQ and Pentagon work out F-16 deal and 450 million dollars military aid issues, it is evident that the interests of both the countries have come to a level where they can only be described as “colliding” or “contradictory”.
Still, Pakistan has two very important cards which can be put on table at any time; first by increasing the ties with Iran and second by using China to send a strong message to USA about the options Pakistan still has. Different analysts who believe that by denying the military aid of fighter jets, USA will squeeze Pakistan may not be entirely correct because things have changed now and Pakistan has been playing a bit independently in foreign relations which were considered to be dictated by the external powers previously. Pakistan’s policy in Yemen’s case and relations with Moscow and Iran can be taken as examples.
QASIM MEHMOOD QURESHI
The author is a student of International Relations in National Defense University, Islamabad
http://blogs.dunyanews.tv/13205/pak-us-relations-myths-facts/
