Rawalpindi | Gentlemen, it’s time

[Ratus Ratus]

Initially when things started to move against the Taliban/TTP/TNSM, I thought at last reason had set in.

Things changed.

Firstly and too many peoples’ horror I don’t personally believe that the campaign against the Taliban, (TTP etc) will last long. I would give it at best 3 weeks.
At that point peace deals will be struck and at the point of a gun, held by the wrong people again.

Why?
It is somewhat obvious that this will occur.
Firstly you have a politician who ahs gain in polls in that persons we should do something other than use the army rhetoric.
This will gain good media and attach that to the number of displaced pers makes that politicians call ‘look good’.

Secondly, many deep down still see the TTP/TNSM as people who got things done which the governments, national and provincial did not do. They see the atrocities that were carried out as being done by non Pakistanis and hence not really the TTP/TNSM.

The media initially was pro Taliban and hence denounced any thing coming for GOP etc. After the horrific shots coming out of Swat etc the media changed and started to call for action. Action came but the media as a group wanted action and some how without any form of disruption to life, somehow no blood shed, and the list of pie in sky thoughts and beliefs go on. When things happened and people were displaced, villages shelled, people being killed the media decided that their desires were not being met so they backed some politician or two who presented ideas close to their desires.

Many all believed that due to the size of the Army this will all be done with in a week tops. No one had any real understanding of the situation and to some extent the Army as well.
This is part conventional warfare and part COIN. I believe the Army has and will execute the conventional part well but F UP the COIN part very well.

As for duration it is going to take months, not weeks if done properly.

It might just pay for many section commanders, officers, etc to re read the US Counterinsurgency manual, or the British one or the Australian one.
Read, absorb and put into practice.
Yes the Army is and I strongly believe conventional war savvy and very good at that, and possibly better than the standard conventional enemy they are trained for.
But I doubt strongly the Army is CI/COIN savvy to the required need as it is not normally a form of conflict they train for.

Yes many will howl and scream but it is about time some of you took a closer look at the big picture. It aint good.

Small point before the howls, during the Vietnam war it was politicians such as the one you have currently screaming down the army and the media joining in that brought that conflict to an end. It was not a military defeat it was a political defeat.
You are on the verge of repeating that example.
Yes I lived through that. I saw our troops coming home and saw people throwing red pain on them. Saw people denounce the soldiers as murders. Saw people desecrating war memorials.
Many soldiers from that period do not say they fought there because that stigma caused by politicians and the media still lingers.

OK simple outline, but why bother with detail since no one will believe it.

 

[Ratus Ratus]

Just for the record, I am not anti-army

now is that the joke of the year!

Don't see that statement as a joke but fact. Makes sense.

 

[S-2]

Lashkars are destroyed in Waziristan, aren't they, if the tribal leadership has been too? Seems I recall that Waziristan was particularly affected by the killing of tribal leaders. Please correct me if wrong.

If your army goes in, it won't be coming out for many, many moons if not suns. Waziristan is huge and the topography and densities change. Lots of land to patrol and cover. Lot of tiny villages scattered.

Look at American experiences and your own near the border in Bajaur. A very lonely platoon fight by infantry that will wear their feet and azzes off going up and down hills.

Good questions.

 

[blain2]

The Army is doing what it can..I thought this was a good humanitarian gesture on the Part of Army:

Kayani said while collateral damage and displacement had to be expected, managing the displaced was as important as the military operation.

The army, which played a major role in helping survivors of a big earthquake in 2005, was donating part of its rations to the relief effort, enough to feed about 80,000 adults a day, it said.

Pakistani army ordered to avoid civilian casualties

 

[blain2]

Initially when things started to move against the Taliban/TTP/TNSM, I thought at last reason had set in.

Things changed.

Firstly and too many peoples’ horror I don’t personally believe that the campaign against the Taliban, (TTP etc) will last long. I would give it at best 3 weeks.
At that point peace deals will be struck and at the point of a gun, held by the wrong people again.

Why?
It is somewhat obvious that this will occur.
Firstly you have a politician who ahs gain in polls in that persons we should do something other than use the army rhetoric.
This will gain good media and attach that to the number of displaced pers makes that politicians call ‘look good’.

Secondly, many deep down still see the TTP/TNSM as people who got things done which the governments, national and provincial did not do. They see the atrocities that were carried out as being done by non Pakistanis and hence not really the TTP/TNSM.

The media initially was pro Taliban and hence denounced any thing coming for GOP etc. After the horrific shots coming out of Swat etc the media changed and started to call for action. Action came but the media as a group wanted action and some how without any form of disruption to life, somehow no blood shed, and the list of pie in sky thoughts and beliefs go on. When things happened and people were displaced, villages shelled, people being killed the media decided that their desires were not being met so they backed some politician or two who presented ideas close to their desires.

Many all believed that due to the size of the Army this will all be done with in a week tops. No one had any real understanding of the situation and to some extent the Army as well.
This is part conventional warfare and part COIN. I believe the Army has and will execute the conventional part well but F UP the COIN part very well.

As for duration it is going to take months, not weeks if done properly.

It might just pay for many section commanders, officers, etc to re read the US Counterinsurgency manual, or the British one or the Australian one.
Read, absorb and put into practice.
Yes the Army is and I strongly believe conventional war savvy and very good at that, and possibly better than the standard conventional enemy they are trained for.
But I doubt strongly the Army is CI/COIN savvy to the required need as it is not normally a form of conflict they train for.

Yes many will howl and scream but it is about time some of you took a closer look at the big picture. It aint good.

Small point before the howls, during the Vietnam war it was politicians such as the one you have currently screaming down the army and the media joining in that brought that conflict to an end. It was not a military defeat it was a political defeat.
You are on the verge of repeating that example.
Yes I lived through that. I saw our troops coming home and saw people throwing red pain on them. Saw people denounce the soldiers as murders. Saw people desecrating war memorials.
Many soldiers from that period do not say they fought there because that stigma caused by politicians and the media still lingers.

OK simple outline, but why bother with detail since no one will believe it.

Many points are valid. However COIN is something that is not totally alien to PA. Militarily a lid can be kept on an insurgency, it cannot be defeated altogether. As long as we all understand that, the outcome should not surprise anyone.

Secondly, without a shadow of doubt, most of the COIN training anywhere in the world is an OJT type of deal. You bring the lessons back and try to formulate a doctrine and a training curriculum around it so you can respond to such threats better. This is what has been going on in Pakistan ever since 2002.

Although many may not know this, but most of the development and medical aid in remote tribal areas (even since the Army moved in there) has been provided by the Army. These things help no matter how little.

The problem of Taliban in Pakistan in inexplicably linked to what is going on in the neighbourhood. Pakistan Army on her own cannot put an end to this because its an ideology that has to be checked through religious, social and economic means backed up by force. However the concern for most of the posters remain on component regarding the use of force.

My own take is that Pakistanis will have to look beyond the critique that is bound to pile up at our running of this COIN campaign. I stand by my assertion that nobody has run it clean and nobody has been an exception to the OJT nature of this exercise. You run into it, then you bring the lessons back, train your troops and go back into it.

The last thing I want to mention is that while folks here are stating that Army is going in with all guns blazing and not thinking about the follow-up with developmental aid and humanitarian assistance, the fact is that Army is cognizant of this need, however there are immense financial limitations on the GoP. The economy is in the gutters because no foreign investment is coming in. The government is relying on IMF to stay afloat, so to expect that Pakistan alone will be able to militarily defeat the militants, and simultaneously carry on with immediate and massive relief and development work etc. is asking way too much. The Army will do what it can, the GoP will do what they can, however just the number of IDPs streaming in settled Pakistan is something that we have not seen since the Russian war in Afghanistan and that required massive International aid to keep these folks afloat. I see none of this support forthcoming. Lacking this, no matter how effective a military campaign the Army runs, the opponents of Talibanization will lose. All one can hope for is that this campaign is short but there is enough capability and presence maintained in these areas that it discourages these elements from regrouping.

Currently the prevailing sentiment is to only ask Pakistan for everything without realizing the limitations of the Pakistani government. Something is bound to give way and I hope its the resolve of the Taliban, but I am not too sure of that. The GoP may go broke before that happens.

 

[Kasrkin]

"As for the rest of the country, they have already made inroads into the Punjab: the attack on the police training centre and the Sri Lankan teams are examples.

Bottom line: improve intelligence."

No, the bottom line is that all the intelligence won't make a difference if the Taliban are allowed to retain territory, recruit, train, organize and rule entire districts. You don’t need to be a security expert to know this. Your arguments are only designed to belittle the army, little else… Suicide attacks will stop if the terrorists are kept on the run; their numbers and influence negated. But you viciously oppose the only way this can be done.

Terrorism will also be destroyed if we win the ideological fight, if people realize that whatever their issues, be that anti-Americanism or demand for ‘religious’ laws, private armies, militias, separatist violence is not the acceptable way to go. But instead, here we are in the middle of a war, and you prefer to dispute the Army’s ‘right’ to secure the country’s borders, defend itself and other state institutions from insurrectionists or even follow the orders of a bloody democratic government.

It’s one thing to advise tactical prudence or criticize performance, but what you are doing is the exact opposite: taking away from the defenders of Pakistan the one thing they need the most right now. Legitimacy. And your suggested ‘solution’ of throwing down our weapons and saying ‘we don’t use force so you might as well do what you want with our country’ is preposterous and it doesn’t take a genius to figure where we’d end up in 3 months if we did that.

”Just because someone doesn’t agree with your viewpoint doesn’t make them opportunists or hypocrites. They are entitled to their opinions — counter their arguments all you want but be impersonal.”

I have countered the rhetoric of such individuals through their own arguments, there is nothing ‘personal’ about calling you out on your inconsistencies. If your words are hypocritical and destructive then we will say they are, counter that if you can but dont dramatize your plight.

”like my ideals and all other idealists. And as for Musharraf’s bloodless coup — it’s not a mean feat. He didn’t do an ehsaan on me or the nation. The same people who were despised (read BB and Zaradri) were given a safe-passage into the country courtesy his NRO. At the end of the day he was as political and power-thirsty as any “civilian” politician/bureaucrat will be.”

I don’t want you to be a Musharraf fan, it just pains me to see that you are so selective (destructively so) with what you call your ‘ideals’ and ‘love’ for country. Musharraf was a fairly popular guy but his Achilles heel was the WoT, it was the one thing that united all his rivals and generated so much hate that was used by the very same politicians who are in power today. Opposition to Musharraf was generated at the cost of our position in the WoT that not only prevented our country from mobilizing properly against the threat but also obliged our army take an inconsistent approach to balance their chief’s political vulnerabilities. Now that Musharraf is gone, the excuse for hating the PA and not supporting them in the time of need is gone. But still we refuse to play our parts as patriotic citizens even when the same politicians who exploited the WoT to depose Musharraf are in power and calling the shots?

”Yes, they are “our” people who were allowed to be brainwashed. You want to take care of them, then do so but with a well-sketched strategy.”

Yes, because one as yourself would know a ‘well-sketched strategy’ when you see one? They maybe ‘our’ people in the most technical sense (not all of them) but, as I just explained, that doesn’t excuse them in the way you’re insisting they should be excused. In the end everyone has a choice, those who make the wrong choices suffer in this world and the hereafter. No one is born good or evil, a murderer is a murderer because of the choices he makes and is therefore responsible for his actions and decisions. We cannot baby the whole populous through your ridiculous (and selective) ideals because that endangers the lives of so many in the vast majority who do want to live like honorable, peaceful and law-abiding citizens of Pakistan.

The right thing to do now is to tell our simple people that there is a line between what is acceptable and what is not. You are blurring that line at every opportunity and thus negating our nation’s ability to ideologically oppose and isolate the killers who bomb our cities and intimidate entire populations and murder our service-men on a daily basis.

 

[blain2]

A clarification:


With a population of 170 million and more than four dominant ethnicities, wishing for a collective approach seems idealism on your part

We haven't been able to agree on anything since the March 23 resolution in 1943.

My criticism to army action is that how many cycles will it go through before it gets it right? No lessons learnt from Fata whatsoever?

Its not idealism when at least 45% of the population supports the military action in Swat.

When asked if they felt that religious extremism was a serious problem in Pakistan, 74 percent replied yes, the highest percentage since September 2007. The highest percentage yet, 69 percent, agreed that the Taliban and al-Qaeda operating in Pakistan was a serious problem, while
45 percent said that they supported the Pakistani Army fighting the extremists in the North West Frontier Province and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas, another all time high.

45pc back military operation | Pakistan | News | Newspaper | Daily | English | Online

We haven't been able to agree on anything since the March 23 resolution in 1943.

Come now..how can you get THE date wrong?

My criticism to army action is that how many cycles will it go through before it gets it right? No lessons learnt from Fata whatsoever?

As many as it takes. Who is getting it right anywhere? Do the lives lost or collateral damage incurred in any such campaign make that campaign effective at the end? I do not know but I feel that PA is being judged very irrationally on something that has taken ISAF in Afghanistan more than 5 years to get right and they are still trying to figure it out.

"No lessons learnt" from FATA is a baseless claim and your perception. First thing you need to do is to understand and admit that this is a very difficult campaign made all the more difficult due to various religious and cultural linkages between the protagonists involved. There are overlapping interests here as well which makes this COIN campaign that much more difficult.

Secondly, tactics aside, what else is the Army to learn from it besides the fact that none of its operations in FATA were considered to be in the national interests and were actually seen as being conducted at the behest of the Americans? How can an Army succeed in such a mission? FATA is as expansive as Southern Afghanistan. With our very limited mobility, our troops were trying their level best and were not very effective. However if you look across the border in Afghanistan, how is the ISAF campaign any more effective in the Pakhtun areas despite the much touted COIN training and the maximum mobility available to the force there?

 

[Patriot]

Well, Taliban supporters are hypocrites.What if your own people rob your house kill your family..will you give them free hand as they are your very own people.This is disgusting.Our soldiers are wasting their life for nothing.I think all people supports taliban should be dropped into Swat from 10,000 Feet..Our own people so let them loot our country, destroy it's economy.If our country breaks up then Talibans and their supporters will be responsible.

 

[Ratus Ratus]

With a population of 170 million and more than four dominant ethnicities, wishing for a collective approach seems idealism on your part

This is not impossible. The problem is the way each group approaches the concept of nationalism. From an outsider to be honest the concept of nationalism seems to be heavily stuck on religious basis and sorry that does not work.
Throw in the fact you as a nation really have not had too many so called stable periods of "government of the people for the people". Now if you want to chuck in "by the people" that is your prerogative, but not critical.


My criticism to army action is that how many cycles will it go through before it gets it right? No lessons learnt from Fata whatsoever?

How ever you look at CI/COIN there will be lessons learned and also new ones to pick up for each conflict district.
It is not a matter of cycles but a learning period. I have already pointed out that the Army is very conversant in conventional warfare. But though it does some training in CI it has not been its main training thrust. Thus it will be a very much On the Job training experience for all levels from the private through to the battle group commander.
If you look at the early US experience in Iraq and Afghanistan they were trying to relearn COIN on the job and stuffed up quiet a bit in the beginning. The advent of their CI manual helped bring many back into the fold.
Other militaries have CI as normal training in parallel with conventional warfare training so they don’t see it as anything different. It is a mind set of the overall military command.
Now some may argue that CI is not something really different to normal training. There is a difference in that the battle is quit fluid and quick decisions must be made at the section and platoon level that are outside of the box.

The biggest issue with the PA is how it works with the displaced people. How it provides medical transport and food distribution.
Add to that any plan involving NGOS etc to assist these people. Cohesive plans are critical and need central control to avoid duplication and waste of limited resources.

 

[blain2]

The biggest issue with the PA is how it works with the displaced people. How it provides medical transport and food distribution.
Add to that any plan involving NGOS etc to assist these people. Cohesive plans are critical and need central control to avoid duplication and waste of limited resources.

They have put a very capable officer (Lt Gen Nadeem Ahmed - he managed the 2005 earthquake relief and rehabilitation work) in charge of the above.

It has been decided to provide all out support to Government and International Agencies in the management and rehabilitation of IDPs. For this purpose a Corps Headquarters headed by Lieutenant General Nadeem Ahmed (Ex Deputy Chairman ERRA) has been tasked to form a Special Support Group for IDPs, for coordinating and directing all efforts of Government, Army and other Agencies for optimal utilization of resources in providing relief.

For the first time in its history, Pakistan Army has taken a decision to give part of its daily ration (items of daily food; Atta, Sugar, Ghee and Dhall) to these IDPs. This exemplifies the Army�s spirit of sacrifice. The food items so provided will be able to daily feed about 80,000 adults. Furthermore, Army is deploying its medical resources in all the IDPs camps. These medical camps will have adequate medicines for 90 days. Local Military Hospitals will also go on surge to treat patients.

 

[Ratus Ratus]

blain2:
without a shadow of doubt, most of the COIN training anywhere in the world is an OJT type of deal. You bring the lessons back and try to formulate a doctrine and a training curriculum around it so you can respond to such threats better

Yes and No.
In the early stages the military may phase in an OTJ training and implementation. But if you look at as a simple example the US, Australia and UK you will find doctrine is already written, ok updated where necessary, but it is inherent in the overall training. It is not an add-on.
Simple example in Vietnam the Australia did not have any specific COIN doctrine. What they pulled on was experiences from WWII in PNG, the Malaya campaign. This with then current experiences formed the COIN doctrine. It has been inexistence since early days of Nam.
It is constant included in all training as much as normal conventional training for all arms.

Nadja:
COIN intelligence..
Ho Hum..
Intelligence in these ops can be gained fro people providing it, i.e. the displaced pers, or by hard work, that is patrolling in depth.
At this point of time you do not have that luxury. At best you have unsubstantiated pointers from the displaced pers. This is a big problem as you have no idea if it is a fact that the enemy is there or it is a vendetta issue.

 

[Ratus Ratus]

They have put a very capable officer (Lt Gen Nadeem Ahmed - he managed the 2005 earthquake relief and rehabilitation work) in charge of the above.

Not actually disputing anything here but pointing out the need of a central control and why.

 

[fatman17]

At this point of time you do not have that luxury. At best you have unsubstantiated pointers from the displaced pers. This is a big problem as you have no idea if it is a fact that the enemy is there or it is a vendetta issue.

2 days ago, a 2/Lt, his JCO and 2 soldiers were blown up when they stopped a pick-up truck loaded with IDPs, an old man and a woman, 2 children and the driver. as the army jeep neared the pick-up to check the IDPs, it was blown up by a remote device!

 

[Ratus Ratus]

Are you trying to say don’t trust anything or anyone?

 

[Patriot]

Saad Rafique of PML(N) on Express TV "We do not support military operation....army is just killing ordinary men women and kids.......We were not taken into confidence before launching this operation....how you justify it? If Mulvi Sufi breaks deal/promise you bomb his valley and when Musharaf breaks Constitution you give him Guard of Honor.....
These bastards should be hanged.