Ratus Ratus
PROFESSIONAL
- Joined
- Dec 24, 2008
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Initially when things started to move against the Taliban/TTP/TNSM, I thought at last reason had set in.
Things changed.
Firstly and too many peoples horror I dont personally believe that the campaign against the Taliban, (TTP etc) will last long. I would give it at best 3 weeks.
At that point peace deals will be struck and at the point of a gun, held by the wrong people again.
Why?
It is somewhat obvious that this will occur.
Firstly you have a politician who ahs gain in polls in that persons we should do something other than use the army rhetoric.
This will gain good media and attach that to the number of displaced pers makes that politicians call look good.
Secondly, many deep down still see the TTP/TNSM as people who got things done which the governments, national and provincial did not do. They see the atrocities that were carried out as being done by non Pakistanis and hence not really the TTP/TNSM.
The media initially was pro Taliban and hence denounced any thing coming for GOP etc. After the horrific shots coming out of Swat etc the media changed and started to call for action. Action came but the media as a group wanted action and some how without any form of disruption to life, somehow no blood shed, and the list of pie in sky thoughts and beliefs go on. When things happened and people were displaced, villages shelled, people being killed the media decided that their desires were not being met so they backed some politician or two who presented ideas close to their desires.
Many all believed that due to the size of the Army this will all be done with in a week tops. No one had any real understanding of the situation and to some extent the Army as well.
This is part conventional warfare and part COIN. I believe the Army has and will execute the conventional part well but F UP the COIN part very well.
As for duration it is going to take months, not weeks if done properly.
It might just pay for many section commanders, officers, etc to re read the US Counterinsurgency manual, or the British one or the Australian one.
Read, absorb and put into practice.
Yes the Army is and I strongly believe conventional war savvy and very good at that, and possibly better than the standard conventional enemy they are trained for.
But I doubt strongly the Army is CI/COIN savvy to the required need as it is not normally a form of conflict they train for.
Yes many will howl and scream but it is about time some of you took a closer look at the big picture. It aint good.
Small point before the howls, during the Vietnam war it was politicians such as the one you have currently screaming down the army and the media joining in that brought that conflict to an end. It was not a military defeat it was a political defeat.
You are on the verge of repeating that example.
Yes I lived through that. I saw our troops coming home and saw people throwing red pain on them. Saw people denounce the soldiers as murders. Saw people desecrating war memorials.
Many soldiers from that period do not say they fought there because that stigma caused by politicians and the media still lingers.
OK simple outline, but why bother with detail since no one will believe it.
Things changed.
Firstly and too many peoples horror I dont personally believe that the campaign against the Taliban, (TTP etc) will last long. I would give it at best 3 weeks.
At that point peace deals will be struck and at the point of a gun, held by the wrong people again.
Why?
It is somewhat obvious that this will occur.
Firstly you have a politician who ahs gain in polls in that persons we should do something other than use the army rhetoric.
This will gain good media and attach that to the number of displaced pers makes that politicians call look good.
Secondly, many deep down still see the TTP/TNSM as people who got things done which the governments, national and provincial did not do. They see the atrocities that were carried out as being done by non Pakistanis and hence not really the TTP/TNSM.
The media initially was pro Taliban and hence denounced any thing coming for GOP etc. After the horrific shots coming out of Swat etc the media changed and started to call for action. Action came but the media as a group wanted action and some how without any form of disruption to life, somehow no blood shed, and the list of pie in sky thoughts and beliefs go on. When things happened and people were displaced, villages shelled, people being killed the media decided that their desires were not being met so they backed some politician or two who presented ideas close to their desires.
Many all believed that due to the size of the Army this will all be done with in a week tops. No one had any real understanding of the situation and to some extent the Army as well.
This is part conventional warfare and part COIN. I believe the Army has and will execute the conventional part well but F UP the COIN part very well.
As for duration it is going to take months, not weeks if done properly.
It might just pay for many section commanders, officers, etc to re read the US Counterinsurgency manual, or the British one or the Australian one.
Read, absorb and put into practice.
Yes the Army is and I strongly believe conventional war savvy and very good at that, and possibly better than the standard conventional enemy they are trained for.
But I doubt strongly the Army is CI/COIN savvy to the required need as it is not normally a form of conflict they train for.
Yes many will howl and scream but it is about time some of you took a closer look at the big picture. It aint good.
Small point before the howls, during the Vietnam war it was politicians such as the one you have currently screaming down the army and the media joining in that brought that conflict to an end. It was not a military defeat it was a political defeat.
You are on the verge of repeating that example.
Yes I lived through that. I saw our troops coming home and saw people throwing red pain on them. Saw people denounce the soldiers as murders. Saw people desecrating war memorials.
Many soldiers from that period do not say they fought there because that stigma caused by politicians and the media still lingers.
OK simple outline, but why bother with detail since no one will believe it.