Martian2
SENIOR MEMBER
- Joined
- Dec 15, 2009
- Messages
- 5,809
- Reaction score
- -37
1. Lets see China continue to do that for the next 5 years, let alone 20, let alone 40, then we'll talk about reliability. As it is this isn't a contest, both the US and the USSR/Russia have decades more experience paving the path for the other powers in both design and protocol where none before existed, and thus are considered more reliable, while China is still the relative newcomer standing upon the shoulders of giants. China might prove to be more reliable eventually, but it isn't proven yet and their record is still too new to decide when compared to the US and Russia. This is much the same argument used by Boeing vs SpaceX when it comes to reliability, but you know what? It's true.
2. Russia's manned capability is considered the most reliable in the world. It's not difficult to see why with its decades long record and few failures. Of course it isn't hard for it to be considered most reliable since it is essentially a multiple decades old unchanged design, but the maxim 'if it aint broke dont fix it' applies.
Russian unmanned capability is good imo, better than most, but when it comes to exploration Russia seems to have all the bad luck, especially with Mars.
3. US manned capability to LEO before the end of the Shuttle was pretty much second to none in capability, but the costs of the program and bad management have left the US without a manned capability for the moment. Under your guidelines this means the US isn't a premier space power, but that utterly ignores how its achievements in unmanned spaceflight outclasses all the rest.
It can be argued convincingly imo that getting multiple rovers successfully to Mars in working condition, a working probe beyond the edge of the solar system, and a space plane with a staying capability exceeding a year that is able to change orbit and land successfully back on earth are more effective demonstrations of 'space capability' and 'technology' then taking a man to LEO orbit, especially when the country you demote has done it before, sent a man further than anyone else, and has concrete plans to have the capability to send men to LEO again (if not farther, which is likely), by the end of the decade. This may or may not actually happen, but historically there is a great chance it will, the US has been without manned capability before.
If you are adamant that for any country to be a premier space power, they are required to have manned capabilities TODAY at this exact moment without regard to flight history, achievement history, ungoing unmanned operations, or future plans, then yes, the US is not a 'premier space power' under your definition today.
I am of the opinion that many would disagree with such a pedantic view though,
and I am of the opinion that it is so narrowly defined as to hold no meaning.
It should rather be measured in the space of years, if not half-decades rather than the moment.
I think most people are intelligent enough to realize that manned spaceflight capability "today" means any time in the next one or two years. I clarified that for you, because you're dumb enough to think that "today" means literally in the next 24 hours.
The simple fact of the matter is that if a country cannot send an astronaut into space and another country possesses the ability then the incapable country must be ranked lower. This is common sense and fair.
When a country is paying someone else exorbitant prices for seats to fly into space, it is not the world's premier space power. To claim otherwise is laughable. We know the U.S. won't have manned space flight capability until at least 2016 and possibly much longer than that. Face it, the U.S. has no manned space flight capability for the indefinite future (see citations below).
You go ahead and try to explain to an American kid that China sends taikonauts into space on Chinese spaceships. However, American astronauts have to hitch a ride on Russian spaceships. And yet, you think America should rank ahead of China as a space power. The kid will think you're nuts.
----------
No U.S. manned spaceflight capability through 2016 and possibly much longer
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303982504576428080248680032.html
"Jul 7, 2011 – So far, NASA has purchased 46 seats for Soyuz flights through 2016, and it wants to buy more. NASA officials attribute the price hikes to ..."
http://science.slashdot.org/story/11/03/15/1221235/nasa-buys-12-seats-on-soyuz
"Mar 15, 2011 – jamax noted that NASA has announced the purchase of 12 seats on Soyuz for 2014 to 2016. The price tag was $753 million — just a stitch over ..."
Last edited by a moderator: