Rafale Out of MRCA Consequences FOR PAF

[Hasnain2009]

And MICA range is <= 60??

 

[Contrarian]

I dont get it, why are people here assuming that Dassault would drop prices for Pakistan along with offering high amount of ToT in addition to helping out with the JF-17, when India was buying 126 planes outright with a strong likelyhood of buying another 74 planes, making a total of 200+.

 

[sancho]

Don't think there are real consequences for PAF only because IAF don't buy the Rafale. PAF is getting JF17, J10 and F16 block 52 so why do they need a 4. new type that is so expensive? What would be useful is the engine (specially if UAE funds the M88-3 version) and the AESA radar.

 

[Gabbar]

Rafale shot down for real or victim of the Gripen syndrome?

by Edouard Billet

If we believe in recent press reports (Dow Jones, Reuters, etc.), Dassault would be about to make its Rafale fighter remain a true &#8220;French exception&#8221;. The news is still not confirmed but an anonymous MoD official is said to have announced to the media that the French combat aircraft has been rejected from the IAF MMRCA contest.

What happened? Is it really true? Is the Rafale a victim of the Gripen syndrome? Remember January when rumors popped up suggesting that Saab's JAS-39 Gripen might be left out of the field trials following the IAF's Technical Evaluation Committee report.

The news (if confirmed) sounds very. The aircraft, among the six contenders, is maybe one of the most pertinent for the IAF in terms of technical and operational aspects given the wide range of capabilities but let's try to put some distance between us and the aircraft first.

I think it is useless here to make yet another technical description of the aircraft itself. Every reader of this blog knows now the different features of each contender and their strengths/weaknesses. But maybe we should do the right assessment, instead. This recent announcement (if true) was released just after Air Chief Marshal FH Major, the Chief of Air Staff, said the first technical evaluation made by the militaries is over. Field trials have not begun yet and will probably be launched just after the elections in mid-May, and Dassault&#8217;s offer has already been rejected. In other words, it looks like the offer has been rejected instead of the Rafale.

But what really happened? The debate seems now to have jumped from the technical/technological sphere into the commercial/strategic sphere. The Rafale is a really good plane and shows its potential almost each day in Afghanistan or simply during its test campaigns in the hands of the French flight test center (CEV) teams. Its potential and its present capabilities are really great, no doubt about that. But let&#8217;s question ourselves about the way the Indian commercial campaign has been led by its maker and the French authorities. The problem might be here.

Some Indian observers believe that Dassault does not really believe the fact that the RfP process will survive the coming elections. Except this hypothesis, nothing can really explain the lack of communication from the French side that many observers have highlighted compared to the commercial show orchestrated by Boeing, Lockheed Martin (even the flames on the runway&#8230; the Americans always bring some special FX with them!) or even EADS.

Many things are not clear at all because of a lack of official communications from the MoD. But would it be reasonable to put into perspective the MMRCA deal and the future contract to upgrade the IAF&#8217;s Mirage 2000? Did Indian authorities make Dassault understand that Mirage + Rafale is an impossible equation given their will to reinforce their ties with the US? Because if we remember the words that Indian officials said few months ago that clearly signified &#8220;We won't sign any other strategic partnership apart from those with the US and Russia&#8221; Therefore, is the die cast?

Another element that should be taken into account in the &#8216;unconfirmed&#8217; statement made by the anonymous MoD official is the price of Dassault&#8217;s offer. This argument seems to be recurrent concerning French offers in general, and was notably heard concerning the Mirage 2000 upgrade program. If some observers and militaries sometimes reproach French programs to be expensive, the most part of them also admit in the same time that French products have very good records in terms of serviceability, and are not linked to any constraining end-use monitoring agreements. Maybe quality and sovereignty have a cost. That's a thought.

Let&#8217;s try to stay careful for now since the &#8220;rejection&#8221; has not been formalized yet. Dassault itself, according to one of its spokespersons, still has not been informed of anything by the Indian government.

Even if we try to get out of technical discussions, many readers here would probably agree with that: it is quite frustrating to totally ignore technological aspects to only focus on commercial reflections. Because, indeed, one question remains. What makes possible the fact that the Rafale is excluded for technical reasons and not the Gripen, for instance? Neither the Gripen IN/NG nor the MiG-35 are operational and field trials expected to start next month, which could become a strange mix of prototypes and operational aircrafts test flights. The Rafale in its F3 standard is today a very competitive aircraft. Neither the cheapest nor the most expensive solution, its abilities have a strong point: they are proven (Red Flag, Afghanistan) and, a minima, at the same level of the five other contenders.

What can we have against it? Maybe its good &#8220;omnirole&#8221; nature. So good that it is not the &#8220;best&#8221; in a particular mission, except maybe deep penetration missions in air-to-ground attack mode given its small EM/IR signature and its important survivability with its SPECTRA self-protection system.

What is censurable in its configuration? Mainly two points:

1) Its thrust -- an engine able to deliver 90kN would have been better, notably for high-altitude take-off and landings, but technically the solution already exists with the M88 ECO. Even if this engine is not yet in production, an agreement seems to be possible (and is thought) between the DRDO (and more specifically the GTRE) and Snecma as a possible way to boost the Kaveri program (but here again the IAF expressed its reluctance due to the level of proposed ToTs).

2) Its radar: an AESA is said to be required in the IAF's ASQR. Thales has been finalizing the development of its new RBE2 AESA for months, which is now ready for low rate production. This system has been flight tested many times in France and was recently evaluated by Swiss pilots in the frame of Switzerland AF own contest to replace its old F-5. According to local sources, pilots are really enthusiastic and enjoyed its performances (range, precision) in various tactical environments (mountains, jammed areas, etc.). Those sources also said most pilots who have flown the Rafale and the other proposed aircrafts (i.e. Gripen and EF) expressed their preference for the French fighter. Furthermore, ToTs proposed to India by Thales for the RBE2 AESA seemed to be very interesting.

So where is the logic? Probably Dassault's offer would have been rejected in the last part of the MMRCA evaluation process at the political/economical level, given the strategic interest to opt for an American solution. But such a rejection now is quite hardly understandable. So wait and see, for two reasons: 1) to see if the announcement is true and 2) to gain more distance with all these parameters.

If ever the announcement is validated by Indian officials, maybe French authorities will have to take in turn some distance with their way to support the French industry abroad. Here again, let's do a flashback two months ago during Aero India 09 and let's remember the words of Nicolas Sarkozy&#8217;s adisor on International Affairs Jean-David Levitte. According to him the Rafale was under damageable political pressure in India. He said he asked the Indian government to consider the Rafale the same way it does with the five other contenders. These words, carefully listened by any polemist, would have been read as: "If you do not select the Rafale that means you are corrupt".

So maybe we should imagine that the French government didn't really help Dassault's efforts. Such a hypothesis could be read in the light of the recent Rafale defeat in Morocco, partially caused by a lack of coordination of the French Administration with Dassault's commercial stance.
But all these are only suppositions and ideas to deepen, of course the discourse. Let's wait, savoring a good French red wine. I'm sure you know that wine possesses neuroleptic effects, i.e. it blunts the peak of emotions and reduces anxiety and stress, providing a mild euphoria and some moral appeasement?

 

[BaburCM]

I dont get it, why are people here assuming that Dassault would drop prices for Pakistan along with offering high amount of ToT in addition to helping out with the JF-17, when India was buying 126 planes outright with a strong likelyhood of buying another 74 planes, making a total of 200+.

Too bad for India that they won't be getting the Rafale. I know that many Indians had hoped otherwise. Well, you'll have to live with that now I'm afraid.

Pakistan on the other hand could not only buy a few squadrons, 100+ engines, avionics etc., but also convince friendly countries like UAE, Kuwait and other oil rich Arab countries to go for the Rafale. The close proximity of Pakistan and such oil rich Arab countries is another solid reason for a production assembly factory, maintenance/spares depot etc. to be set-up in one of the countries. Together with the Arab countries Pakistan can push for a reasonable deal. That's if the oil rich Arab countries and Pakistan play it out smartly. The collective numbers are what really matters and the French know it. PAF is a trendsetter and any air force in the world acknowledges that. The Arabs will follow suite. I know it's a very bitter pill to swallow for many Indian Rafale fan boys. The possibilities for PAF at this stage are quite convenient if the French are willing to cooperate.

 

[Kharian_Beast]

Rafale shot down for real or victim of the Gripen syndrome?

by Edouard Billet

If we believe in recent press reports (Dow Jones, Reuters, etc.), Dassault would be about to make its Rafale fighter remain a true “French exception”. The news is still not confirmed but an anonymous MoD official is said to have announced to the media that the French combat aircraft has been rejected from the IAF MMRCA contest.

What happened? Is it really true? Is the Rafale a victim of the Gripen syndrome? Remember January when rumors popped up suggesting that Saab's JAS-39 Gripen might be left out of the field trials following the IAF's Technical Evaluation Committee report.

The news (if confirmed) sounds very. The aircraft, among the six contenders, is maybe one of the most pertinent for the IAF in terms of technical and operational aspects given the wide range of capabilities but let's try to put some distance between us and the aircraft first.

I think it is useless here to make yet another technical description of the aircraft itself. Every reader of this blog knows now the different features of each contender and their strengths/weaknesses. But maybe we should do the right assessment, instead. This recent announcement (if true) was released just after Air Chief Marshal FH Major, the Chief of Air Staff, said the first technical evaluation made by the militaries is over. Field trials have not begun yet and will probably be launched just after the elections in mid-May, and Dassault’s offer has already been rejected. In other words, it looks like the offer has been rejected instead of the Rafale.

But what really happened? The debate seems now to have jumped from the technical/technological sphere into the commercial/strategic sphere. The Rafale is a really good plane and shows its potential almost each day in Afghanistan or simply during its test campaigns in the hands of the French flight test center (CEV) teams. Its potential and its present capabilities are really great, no doubt about that. But let’s question ourselves about the way the Indian commercial campaign has been led by its maker and the French authorities. The problem might be here.

Some Indian observers believe that Dassault does not really believe the fact that the RfP process will survive the coming elections. Except this hypothesis, nothing can really explain the lack of communication from the French side that many observers have highlighted compared to the commercial show orchestrated by Boeing, Lockheed Martin (even the flames on the runway… the Americans always bring some special FX with them!) or even EADS.

Many things are not clear at all because of a lack of official communications from the MoD. But would it be reasonable to put into perspective the MMRCA deal and the future contract to upgrade the IAF’s Mirage 2000? Did Indian authorities make Dassault understand that Mirage + Rafale is an impossible equation given their will to reinforce their ties with the US? Because if we remember the words that Indian officials said few months ago that clearly signified “We won't sign any other strategic partnership apart from those with the US and Russia” Therefore, is the die cast?

Another element that should be taken into account in the ‘unconfirmed’ statement made by the anonymous MoD official is the price of Dassault’s offer. This argument seems to be recurrent concerning French offers in general, and was notably heard concerning the Mirage 2000 upgrade program. If some observers and militaries sometimes reproach French programs to be expensive, the most part of them also admit in the same time that French products have very good records in terms of serviceability, and are not linked to any constraining end-use monitoring agreements. Maybe quality and sovereignty have a cost. That's a thought.

Let’s try to stay careful for now since the “rejection” has not been formalized yet. Dassault itself, according to one of its spokespersons, still has not been informed of anything by the Indian government.

Even if we try to get out of technical discussions, many readers here would probably agree with that: it is quite frustrating to totally ignore technological aspects to only focus on commercial reflections. Because, indeed, one question remains. What makes possible the fact that the Rafale is excluded for technical reasons and not the Gripen, for instance? Neither the Gripen IN/NG nor the MiG-35 are operational and field trials expected to start next month, which could become a strange mix of prototypes and operational aircrafts test flights. The Rafale in its F3 standard is today a very competitive aircraft. Neither the cheapest nor the most expensive solution, its abilities have a strong point: they are proven (Red Flag, Afghanistan) and, a minima, at the same level of the five other contenders.

What can we have against it? Maybe its good “omnirole” nature. So good that it is not the “best” in a particular mission, except maybe deep penetration missions in air-to-ground attack mode given its small EM/IR signature and its important survivability with its SPECTRA self-protection system.

What is censurable in its configuration? Mainly two points:

1) Its thrust -- an engine able to deliver 90kN would have been better, notably for high-altitude take-off and landings, but technically the solution already exists with the M88 ECO. Even if this engine is not yet in production, an agreement seems to be possible (and is thought) between the DRDO (and more specifically the GTRE) and Snecma as a possible way to boost the Kaveri program (but here again the IAF expressed its reluctance due to the level of proposed ToTs).

2) Its radar: an AESA is said to be required in the IAF's ASQR. Thales has been finalizing the development of its new RBE2 AESA for months, which is now ready for low rate production. This system has been flight tested many times in France and was recently evaluated by Swiss pilots in the frame of Switzerland AF own contest to replace its old F-5. According to local sources, pilots are really enthusiastic and enjoyed its performances (range, precision) in various tactical environments (mountains, jammed areas, etc.). Those sources also said most pilots who have flown the Rafale and the other proposed aircrafts (i.e. Gripen and EF) expressed their preference for the French fighter. Furthermore, ToTs proposed to India by Thales for the RBE2 AESA seemed to be very interesting.

So where is the logic? Probably Dassault's offer would have been rejected in the last part of the MMRCA evaluation process at the political/economical level, given the strategic interest to opt for an American solution. But such a rejection now is quite hardly understandable. So wait and see, for two reasons: 1) to see if the announcement is true and 2) to gain more distance with all these parameters.

If ever the announcement is validated by Indian officials, maybe French authorities will have to take in turn some distance with their way to support the French industry abroad. Here again, let's do a flashback two months ago during Aero India 09 and let's remember the words of Nicolas Sarkozy’s adisor on International Affairs Jean-David Levitte. According to him the Rafale was under damageable political pressure in India. He said he asked the Indian government to consider the Rafale the same way it does with the five other contenders. These words, carefully listened by any polemist, would have been read as: "If you do not select the Rafale that means you are corrupt".

So maybe we should imagine that the French government didn't really help Dassault's efforts. Such a hypothesis could be read in the light of the recent Rafale defeat in Morocco, partially caused by a lack of coordination of the French Administration with Dassault's commercial stance.
But all these are only suppositions and ideas to deepen, of course the discourse. Let's wait, savoring a good French red wine. I'm sure you know that wine possesses neuroleptic effects, i.e. it blunts the peak of emotions and reduces anxiety and stress, providing a mild euphoria and some moral appeasement?

What I got from reading this article among many things is that the Indians have shown their hand which they played much too quickly and gave away the following...the MMRCA tender process, which many had predicted much earlier on, is indeed an unfair display of political favoritism that will rob the IAF of true potentials and capabilities due to GoI playing into the hands of pseudo alliances and disingenuous coercion. Instead of asking the IAF for what it wants, the IAF has been taken hostage by the whims of politicians, who in no way shape or form will be flying the 120 odd birds in defense of their nation.

If verified by Dassault in the coming days, it truly should be a wake up call to Indians in general that as usual, procuring the best defence equipment is never on the agenda.

 

[BaburCM]

LOL French victimization.... The article raises a few good points, but I think with the current line-up who can blame the Indians? The Rafale just isn't the most attractive option out of the whole lot. That's just the way it is I'm afraid.

 

[Kharian_Beast]

The Rafale just isn't the most attractive option out of the whole lot. That's just the way it is I'm afraid.

Well was it given a chance for a full trial period? Just because Dassault and Thales didn't show up with flashy powerpoint presentations and fireworks doesn't mean they should be discounted, at whatever the price it's still lower than EF and with a lot more ToT than the American (and to an extent Swedish) options ! There are pilots out there who have flown the Rafale and prefer it over newer F-16's and Typhoons.

 

[BaburCM]

Well was it given a chance for a full trial period? Just because Dassault and Thales didn't show up with flashy powerpoint presentations and fireworks doesn't mean they should be discounted, at whatever the price it's still lower than EF and with a lot more ToT than the American (and to an extent Swedish) options ! There are pilots out there who have flown the Rafale and prefer it over newer F-16's and Typhoons.

There is no way that the Rafale can survive against the cheaper and better F-16 IN with super cruise capability, state of the art AESA radar or the vastly superior F-18. The AESA AN/APG-79 radar on the F/A-18E/F is simply the most cutting edge. The latest F-16 Block 50/60 cannot be compared with F-16 IN. Gripen has also made heavy modifications to its latest Gripen IN based on Gripen NG (increased combat range and endurance, additional weapons carriage capability and increased payload, the more powerful General Electric F414G engine and super cruise capability). Let's face it, EF is simply a much better fighter and the cheaper MiG-35 being offered with a Russian AESA radar cannot be discarded either. Especially considering the SU-30MKI that the IAF operates with much pleasure. Again, the Rafale isn't offering anything extra and it's expensive as hell. Not to mention the need for additional funds and work to integrate many non-French weapons.

 

[Kharian_Beast]

There is no way that the Rafale can survive against the cheaper and better F-16 IN with super cruise capability...

(From 2 Pilots of the 12F Squadron onboard CdG)
The Rafale is ideal for the job, stresses one of the two duty pilots.
It can climb to 40,000 feet in under two minutes and accelerate very rapidly to supersonic speed. More significantly, it can super-cruise in dry power, even with four missiles and a belly drop tank. Endurance is excellent too, and we can stay airborne up to two hours with one tank.&#187; The pilots also praise the Rafale's advanced man-machine
interface which considerably reduces their workload

...state of the art AESA radar or the vastly superior F-18. The AESA AN/APG-79 radar on the F/A-18E/F is simply the most cutting edge.


Rafale will be fitted with RBE2.

Thales has been working with United Monolithic Semiconductors (UMS), a Franco-German enterprise owned by EADS and Thales, developing and producing microwave T/R modules. UMS optimized the gallium arsenide modules forming the radar&#8217;s antenna.

AESA design offers electronic scanning of the radar beam on both plans, (vertical and horizontal) offering new capabilities beyond the reach of conventional radars. These systems enable the simultaneous designation of multiple targets to different air-to-air missiles, while performing searches in directions completely independent of the target tracks. The level of situational awareness provided by AESA radar far exceeds anything available with conventional radars. RBE2 uses electronic scanning technologies to improve the aircraft low-altitude penetration capability by generating 3D ground map covering a wide area forward of the aircraft, supporting terrain following and maneuvers in the horizontal plane within the area scanned by the radar. The radar will also offer a high resolution ground mapping mode.

Again, the Rafale isn't offering anything extra and it's expensive as hell.

Full ToT. That already trumps the U.S. options without even mentioning the political limboes one faces in procuring and maintaining high level US defence equipment.

 

[BaburCM]

Yes, the Rafale has superior sustained turn rates, higher climb rate and acceleration etc. However, claims of &#8220;super cruise&#8221; capability are far-fetched, and it has been challenging to demonstrate this with the Snecma R88-2 engine. The Rafale cannot perform &#8220;Sustained Super Cruise&#8221; like the genuine F-16 IN or Gripen NG super cruise capability. The new proposed engine for Rafale is still very much on the drawing board.

The RBE2 radar for the Rafale fighter will not be delivered before 2012 to the French Air Force and Navy. The radar is still undergoing trials whereas the US already posses fully matured and functional AESA platforms.

Full ToT will come at a hefty price. The Americans are also offering a transition to F-35 which will surely appeal to the Indians.

 

[Kharian_Beast]

Yes, the Rafale has superior sustained turn rates, higher climb rate and acceleration etc. However, claims of &#8220;super cruise&#8221; capability are far-fetched, and it has been challenging to demonstrate this with the Snecma R88-2 engine. The Rafale cannot perform &#8220;Sustained Super Cruise&#8221; like the genuine F-16 IN or Gripen NG super cruise capability. The new proposed engine for Rafale is still very much on the drawing board.


Having more thrust on paper doesn't mean everything, Rafale was designed to perform optimally at around 75kn - 80kn max thrust, any more and all you are doing really is burning a butt load of fuel for a few seconds of accelleration. Fuel ratio and thrust ratio have to be kept in mind. I can tell you the Typhoon is kept at around 90kn max thrust. Also the claims of Rafale not being able to sustain super cruise is a blogging world fanboy rumour and not substantiated in military circles. Snecma also has the M88-2E4 which reduces fuel consumption and increases life cycle as the parts were originally intended for the M88-3 and can be fitted upon request. Check the link below to scope the improved engine.

Snecma


The RBE2 radar for the Rafale fighter will not be delivered before 2012 to the French Air Force and Navy. The radar is still undergoing trials whereas the US already posses fully matured and functional AESA platforms.

The new AESA RBE2 radar, due for delivery in 2010, would put the Rafale from Dassault Aviation "five years ahead of competitors," Pierre-Yves Chaltiel, senior vice president in Thales airborne systems, told journalists.

Thales Touts 'Market-Leading' AESA Radar - Defense News

The Americans are also offering a transition to F-35 which will surely appeal to the Indians.

That's great, however the F-35 is not part of the MMRCA and IAF claims to be working closely with Russia on FGFA/PAK-FA. F-35 argument is bait being used by the Americans to sell their aging airframes.

 

[BaburCM]

^^ Apart from the technical pros and cons, the Rafale hasn't had any success abroad. There must be something that is halting the sales abroad.

 

[Kharian_Beast]

^^ Apart from the technical pros and cons, the Rafale hasn't had any success abroad. There must be something that is halting the sales abroad.

Basically it's the fact that no one outside of France operates it as it has lost out to aggressive American, Russian, and European consortium marketing. I guess India (apart from the crooked aspects of their dealings) is too shy at this point to be the first export customer of Rafale. There is nothing wrong imo with this bird from a technical standpoint.

 

[sancho]

^^ Apart from the technical pros and cons, the Rafale hasn't had any success abroad. There must be something that is halting the sales abroad.

I think you are underestimating the Rafale and it's capabilities a bit! It is very comparable with the F16 (dimensions, weight, roles), both are very maneuverable aircrafts with good strike capability. The reason why Rafale has problems is, that it's expensive and the high Euro compared to the low Dollar makes other fighters much more interesting. You have to take to account that not only the unit cost is higher, also French made weapons are much costlier than US made. That all and a 5. gen F35 that is nearly ready grabs away potential customers.

In case of MRCA I would say, wait a bit till there is an official announcement from the government, or Dassault that Rafale is out.