Rafale OR fgfa NOT both is the dilemma Facing IAF

[SQ8]

If my canteen wala source is to be believed, 20 numbers of refurbished Mirage 2000's are being thrown in, in a fly away condition and at a rock bottom price by Dassault to sweeten the rafale deal .. If the rumor is true, we should hear something after May 2014

That makes more sense as it allows the IAF to keep certain force numbers up and running. Again, the threat focus is on the western front and as such I dont really think people in the IAF(or any other branch of the Indian military) buy the two-front scenario as much as the hawks in the media and "retired" think tanks.

Opponents of that theory will argue that then the IAF would not be making such purchases if it is enough to tackle the PAF. However, the IAF does not want to lose 1/3rd of its force in the process and would rather have comprehensive Air dominance on the western front, and favourable in the northern sector.
Which is probably why as such the MMRCA Purchase seems more orientated towards China while the M2K's, Mig-29's and limited MKI numbers are sufficient to handle the western front.

Rafale will go through... it will take longer than expected there is more than defense matter hanging in jeapordy... mama's got to get paid... FGFA is assumed to have 12 months delay.. I have been saying from day one they have overestimated MKI production line and this project will see a minimum of 2-3 year delay....

Lets not forget Jaguars deal had almost 7 year delay...

Question is.. how long does it lose relevancy. Not implying that even if it comes in around 2017 it will be ineffective.. but with a planned service life of 20 years or so. How soon will the IAF find the MMRCA obsolescent with its needs in the region(If China's industry really takes off). Or rather, till 2017 are we looking at a IAF that is excellent on order but no so much on actual inventory.

Also, why cant the MKI's be offset to Irkut to sweeten the Russians and downplay their little grudges.

 

[MilSpec]

Question is.. how long does it lose relevancy. Not implying that even if it comes in around 2017 it will be ineffective.. but with a planned service life of 20 years or so. How soon will the IAF find the MMRCA obsolescent with its needs in the region(If China's industry really takes off). Or rather, till 2017 are we looking at a IAF that is excellent on order but no so much on actual inventory.

Also, why cant the MKI's be offset to Irkut to sweeten the Russians and downplay their little grudges.

The dynamics of immediate threat perception is not going to change vis-s-vis Pakistan, and lets face it, no matter how much India cries chinese wolf to justify it's acquisitions, it's not going to change the fact that primary threat perception for India is Pakistan.

China already has such a huge lead over India in terms of military projection, our stance has been very clear since the mid 80's - credible deterrence +....... Technologically Chinese j31 and J20 is a reality for IAF, but they are not immediate adversaries because the threshold for flash point between India and China is too steep, which is not the case with pakistan. By the time j20 becomes fully operational with PLAAF, induction for PMF FGFA would start.

MKI's going to Irkut is a bad idea, buying from HAL is better than buying from irkut even if offered at 70% of HAL cost, the fact remain that the money stays in India (with a psu recirculated back in the govt coffers), It is never wise to send money outside when you have the capability to manufacture in house especially when the project is so expensive that it's details were never made public till date...... In todays date MKI is the most complex big ticket technological item being produced by India, the transfer deal secured by India when Russia was still in doldrums is mind boggling and there is no project (even fgfa) that would have provided India with the access to technology that MKI did.

Looking back at MMRCA and how it got transformed into a monster seems to be a story of greed of power fueled by free money.

what started out as a acquisition of 50 additional mirage 2000 with all good intention was turned into a option for a Mig 35 MKI. With coffers filled with gold from us tax payers, some air chief and few MBA wallas in MoD decided to take it up a notch and placed a process, now the IAF mid brass saw it as a opportunity to get its hands on the shiniest new toys and did everything by the book to invite the best and the brightest the world had to offer... Looking at the chi-ching, "god of wars" from all corners of the globe obliged and we ended up with this bitter slug fest that wasted almost 5 years ... what could have been a stop gap measure for LCA, made it the prime reasons for what seems like deliberate attempt to thwart the development of LCA... mrca in it's original form could have been flying by the year 2007 , now the situation is we might not see the first home built sqdn till 2017.... It's just sad!!

 

[agni 6]

Abingdon your talking out of your rear.

The Indian gdp today is barely 2 trillion.

2020 is six years and six months away. Where you getting this rubbish of 4 trillion GDP from mate. At average 5%.growrh 3 trillion wil be some going by then.

And yes your dam right I knows for 100% that Indian can't and won't be financially by both rafale and fgfa between 2014_2024.

We left mmrca too late

Get your basic economics straight first.In your pessimistic scenario.Growth rate is 5%.This real growth rate.
Nominal growth rate=real growth rate(5%)+inflation(10%)=16%compound it by 16% annually for 6 and 1/2
years and you get an economy of 4 trillion by 2020even if rupee goes to 70.Abingdon is correct.

However this is a pessimistic scenarion.

If my calculations are correct we will have a 5,5 trillion economy as I have already posted as
You are right.With de facto technology denial regimes in place our capital expenditure and R&D budget will shoot up massively.We will have 100's of indigenous programs and thousands of sub programs along with buying weapons upfront without technology transfer.Most experts say that our economy will crash but with the advent of private sector I foresee a huge boom in the Indian economy itself.The creation of a MIC itself will boost our GDP by 2.5% if done decisively our economy from next FY onwards will start growing at 7% and followed by 9% in the successive year.This will have a multiplier effect since huge investments will start taking place.Only caveat is 'Decisive Government'.

That's my worthless 2 paise opinion.Anybody is free to take it or leave it.

 

[fast]

Both projects will go forward, simply because there are more ways for people to skim money off more projects.

 

[Storm Force]

TO AGNI 6

Dressing up an average inflation rate of 10% and referring to this as GDP GROWTH is a disastourous policy & attitude.

In THE WESTERN WORLD where we live inflation control is the no one priority AND we dont dress this up as GROWTH.

i,ll repeat it again AVERAGE REAL GDP GROWTH WILL BE AROUND 5% for india AND THIS WILL N MEAN THE RIDICULOUS ATTEMPT to have 3 seperate fighter projects on the go simultaneouly are doomed.

THIS IS AN ARTICLE FROM ANOTHER FORUM RE OUR FIGHTER PROJECTS X 3 ATTEMPT

IT SUMS UP WHAT I FEAR AND UNDERSTAND wat post of you people have completely ignored

Philip Post subject: Re: PAK-FA and FGFA ThreadPosted: 11 Oct 2013 06:36


Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Posts: 8453
Location: India Austin true,but it is the duty of any Def. Min. to try and overcome the hurdles,delays and bottlenecks in decision making in his own ministry.At least if the MOD has made up its mind,then the CCS can move forward.Secondly,the priority list of critical items required by the forces cannot be ignored for a decade,as the UPA has done.AKA's lethargy in decision making is too well known to absolve him of the major share of the situ we are in now.

A couple of years ago one asked the Q how we were going to afford 3 major aircraft programmes when even advanced nations could afford only one,that too in collaboration with others.The sh*t has now hit the fan and the headless chicken state of affairs is being experienced.In my mind,the long term requirement of the 5th-gen fighter should be top priority,as we will be facing the challenge of a countering at least one Chinese 5th-gen bird ,no matter how capable it is,by 2020.How much we can budget for this is another matter.The second issue is whether we need to acquire also full TOT for a 4++ gen fighter at huge expense (Rafale) instead of buying the aircraft (as we did with the M-2000) and some selective tech.The money saved going into the 5th-gen project.The LCA has become for India on a far lesser scale,a project comparable to the JSF.We are going to be the only or almost only nation flying the bird.After spending so much time and money,we have to make it succeed and build at least 120-150 of them to keep our numbers in the IAF's inventory happy as MIG-21 replacements and to master the art (diploma certificate) of designing and building our own combat aircraft.Once we also master the art of engine tech,we can graduate to the "Bachelor's degree".What it is finally going to cost us per unit,LC costs,etc. ,recovering the total expenditure on the programme,is still unknown but being a desi holy grail,we have to keep plugging on.There have been various statements that funding of the LCA programme has never been an issue and that funds earmarked have still not been utilised due to delays in the programme.

It would be wise for the IAF/MOD to appoint 3 heads for the 3 projects ,with responsibilities almost equiv. to the DG ADA to focus effort on achieving the required results and cutting through any delays,hurdles being experienced at the technical/MOD level so that swift decisions can be made and the funding found and earmarked for the same purpose.
All 3 programmes are essential to the health of the IAF,in the short,med. and long term.Any tinkering with it will spell catastrophe.The absurdity of the situ speaks for itself,60 yr. old MIG-21s still in service by 2020.Do we have to keep on flying our warbirds until they crash?

Unfortunately,the UPA is consumed with the fear of being swept out of power in the forthcoming elections and is desperate to use whatever money is left in the kitty on freebies for the votebanks.The defence of the nation is their last priority.The UPA and Dr.Singh from its track record appears more willing to compromise and perhaps even tolerate a Nelsonian eye to China's grabbing Indian territory and allowing Pak to continue waging its war of terror against us to stay in power.It is why it is doing b*gger all on both borders.

 

[Su-11]

I'm not sure about LCA MKII. But MKI will only be enough for parades.

MK1 is indeed not some high tech fighter, but apart from parades it will also be good enough for cheap chinese Junk-10s and Junk Fighter-17s.

On topic, Scrap the Rafales and go for FGFA but only if its price is less than 100million per piece. Or else its a waste of money to spend more on that pseudo-stealth fighter. FGFAs bottom is more unrefined than even a Mig-21s.

 

[faithfulguy]

MK1 is indeed not some high tech fighter, but apart from parades it will also be good enough for cheap chinese Junk-10s and Junk Fighter-17s.

On topic, Scrap the Rafales and go for FGFA but only if its price is less than 100million per piece. Or else its a waste of money to spend more on that pseudo-stealth fighter. FGFAs bottom is more unrefined than even a Mig-21s.

It look like the only option is for India to wait in line for F-35.

 

[agni 6]

TO AGNI 6

Dressing up an average inflation rate of 10% and referring to this as GDP GROWTH is a disastourous policy & attitude. In THE WESTERN WORLD where we live inflation control is the no one priority AND we dont dress this up as GROWTH.

i,ll repeat it again AVERAGE REAL GDP GROWTH WILL BE AROUND 5% for india AND THIS WILL N MEAN THE RIDICULOUS ATTEMPT to have 3 seperate fighter projects on the go simultaneouly are doomed.

Kindly read before posting.There is no dressing up. Inflation is not growth but nominal growth.Size of economy the world over is calculated by adding inflation and real growth including US and all other countries including g-8, G-20,China, Pakistan etc. A third rate economist knows this but governments try to spin and hide inflation from the common man.It works too until the currency crumbles as what happened in India but now seems to be under control.I suggest you should read up on it on Google.

As far as rest goes I have already posted but still


If it was not for the Engine TOT the maths is something like this

Estimated Cost of Rafale USD 150 Million

Estimated Cost of Su-30MKI is USD 60 Million, LCA USD 20 Million, upgraded radar equipped Jaguar is USD 20 Million and HTT-40 for CAS is USD 10 Million

So instead of 126 Rafales we can have 126 Su-30MKI, 378 LCA, 126 upgraded radar equipped Jaguar and 126 HTT-40

Whether we go for plan A or B it will cost us around 25b$.

Fgfa will cost another 25b$.total comes to 50b$ spread over 10 yrs it is 5b$/year.Spread it over 20 years it is 2.5b$.
It is affordable whether we grow at 5% or 7% as I assume next year.Governments make tall claims at the end of their term money is allocated but hardly spent in India.It is a cheap election gimmick.So don't worry about money With the change of government impending at the center even these figures are going to look as peanuts. For the time being say 2 years we are safe.We can take on Pakistan just by sheer nos and china by having mountain advantages.70% of their critical equipment will not work at those altitudes compared to 20% of ours.Our mountain warfare and orbats are superior.They are making progress but will need at least 2 yrs to mount any credible offense.Remember we will not sit idle and planes are not the only weapons though they are very Important.Even their we have the qualitative edge. There are many different weapons and ways to skin a cat(I am not talking of N weapons here). However for the Jingoes if we venture say 200 kms into Tibet we will be decimated and the Chinese don't need critical equipment for that.Both countries right now are extremely strong on defense.

However if doom and gloom is your play please continue.
For me their is no eminent threat.I am totally focused on elections which are 7 months away and for 2 yrs we are safe except for minor skirmishes at the borders or LOC and LAC.These elections will decide fate of our country in my very humble opinion,If upa3 or third front comes we will be balkanized in 2-3 years max 5.No amount of money or weapons will or can save us.Only under the CM of Gujarat all these threats will go away for long term.
Peace.

 

[Storm Force]

To Summarise then.

WORST CASE scenario IAF by 2020 WILL END HAVING either crashed ALL MIGS or simply stopped flying them as they are so dangerous.

we will have 27 Sqds and only 470 fighters in FRONTLINE service

272 SU30MKI = 15 sqds including 40 super mki by 2019
200 MIX BAG = 12 sqds of mirage2000=5 , mig29smt & jaguar darin upgrades & (40 TEJAS mk1 only good for short dogfights)

BEST CASE SCENRIO

ALL OF HE ABOVE and

50+ RAFALE F3 delivery starting 2017 & license production 2018 FOR a 126-144 FIGHTERS costoing upwards $25 billion

FGFA 3 prototypes in service and already PAID $5 BILLION to russia to jointly develope this version with entry likely within 3 years ie 2023

AND

Tejas MK2 about to go thru FOC by 2020 and 80 fighters to built by 2025 @ cost of $4 billion +

WHAT WILL HAPPEN IMO

SOMETHING IN THE MIDDLE ME THINKS