Rafale is not a Game Changer - Senior Analyst Shahzad Chaudhry

[denel]

Core takeaways should be:

1. Rafale does add to IAF capability
2. It is not being purchased in large enough quantities to make a difference in a 2 Front war
3. JF17B3 will also be a big jump in PAF's capabilities
4. No need to buy J-10 since better AC will soon be available (J31 or AZM)

I would disagree with you on No.4. I see J-10 still being a heavier class to jf-17s with more capabilities. It could be a credible shot against rafale - electronics are the game changer; you reach that level - we are on even playing field.

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

Correct - i invisage a 2 seperate track; one a medium and later a heavier class. For this there is no alternative.

Well, even this would align with a recommendation by some here (incl. myself) that we should un-tie any PAF need before 2040 from Project AZM. Instead, from 2030 to 2040, procure the FC-31E/J-35 (i.e., the medium-weight), but in parallel, slowly on AZM as a 5+/6-gen project. In this case, AZM could become that strike fighter (and the initial design concepts may suggest that as well).

 

[mudas777]

We need to fulfil the PAF 4.5 + generation requirements while India is bringing new aircrafts and capabilities in our neighbourhood and we can't wait for another 10 years AZM to materialize and even take further to mature. While block 3 is on its way why PAF can't go for block 1V in next 2-3 years and fix the stopgap requirements till AZM project shows up in Pakistan colours. We all support AZM project whole heartily and its a long term project but at the same token can't be left so much behind that a sword beginning to start dangling on our neck.

 

[ziaulislam]

if J31 will be available by 2025 PAF should wait as acquiring J31 will give PAF the advantage while acquiring J10 will simply be an equalizar which could have been acheived with large numbers of jf-17s

However if j31 is a dead project then J10s would make some sense

 

[CrazyZ]

Well, even this would align with a recommendation by some here (incl. myself) that we should un-tie any PAF need before 2040 from Project AZM. Instead, from 2030 to 2040, procure the FC-31E/J-35 (i.e., the medium-weight), but in parallel, slowly on AZM as a 5+/6-gen project. In this case, AZM could become that strike fighter (and the initial design concepts may suggest that as well).

My personal opinion in AZM should focus more on stealthy ground/naval strike AC (manned and unmanned). Stealth fighters will be available from China or Turkey.

 

[jupiter2007]

Correct - i invisage a 2 seperate track; one a medium and later a heavier class. For this there is no alternative.

AZM will most likely be a heavier class. J-31/35 will be medium weights or are thinking about JF-17-E ?

 

[MastanKhan]

I would disagree with you on No.4. I see J-10 still being a heavier class to jf-17s with more capabilities. It could be a credible shot against rafale - electronics are the game changer; you reach that level - we are on even playing field.

Hi,

The built in fear of a weapons system makes the enemy make mistakes & errors.

 

[manga]

More threads ?
I think India should emboss the message on rafale that it is not a game changer and not a threat. So that our friends in Pakistan can have a peaceful sleep.

 

[MastanKhan]

Hi,

The retd Paf officer's are blowing wind---.

The Rafale is the frontline line aircraft of the world #2 super power or #3 or #4---. So---by default it is an extremely superior aircraft in its form---function & utility.

To compete it against another that has barley just flown---is irresponsible and arrogant.

The Paf claimed the Mirage F1 not upto the mark---. Today---they have manufactured the identical copy of the Mirage F1 aka the JF17 thunder---.

The the Mirage 2K did not come up to the mark---and later they admitted that it was and then they could not get it.

Then came the Rafale---the Paf mentioned it was not up to the mark---but then after Libyan campaign they admitted that it was---but by then it was not available---.

Now the Paf is upto its old games one more time.

Keep telling the enemy that it has gotten the wrong equipment---and the enemy might surprise you one day by getting the right equipment---.

 

[Asifkamal]

I stopped writing anything in this forum since last year Indian occupation of kashmir and no reply from our side.
But Mastan khan's brutal and correct analysis forced me to take part.
When I was in school in 1989,s at that time science digest was a magazine to inform us about defence updates as well. And anything Pakistan use to get from America, was highly appreciated in that magazine. while it was presented if indians do not know anything about weapons purchases.
Some of those Indian purchased systems later on Pakistan purchased or wished to get them like ATGM or SAM or some tank or artillary systems....
Raffle is a generation ahead of F16 and its not one to one fight but destructive capabilities of a generation ahead aircraft which makes it formidable .
There must have been some planning from our side when India was planning for MMRCA . Now 10 years passed by and we could not find a solution and according to some news , we want J10 from China as immediate reply to Rafael.
A squadron of Grippen fighters might have cost about 1.5 billion dollars or max 2 billion dollars but we could be able to counter the technological advantage which India is enjoying. From 2011 onwards we have not purchased anything new apart from jf17.
Even we cancelled the deal for 8 F16 as we had to pay from our own pocket on one hand we are stating that due to infrastructure availability and experience on F16 its best suited aircraft for us , on the other hand we are reluctant to pay 700 million dollars for these 8 aircrafts, as if some other country like Russia will deliver us fighter aircraft' free
Of cost. Time is passing by very quickly and we must decide to get some advance fighters

 

[triangle]

Core takeaways should be:

1. Rafale does add to IAF capability
2. It is not being purchased in large enough quantities to make a difference in a 2 Front war
3. JF17B3 will also be a big jump in PAF's capabilities
4. No need to buy J-10 since better AC will soon be available (J31 or AZM)

Rafale is indeed not a game changer but as it now stands the PAF does not have a suitable way to counter the Rafale in the air. it's superior sensor package will be able to detect PA fighters from longer distances. PAF can remedie this by getting better EW platforms, either in the air and/or on the ground, like the Koral. The DA20 won't cut it against the Rafale I'm afraid.

Imagine this scenario: PAF Korals or airborne EW platforms jamming Rafale radars, while F-16's and Thunders under guidance of AEW&C can shoot at the Rafale with Aim-120's and Pl-12/15's before the Rafale can use it's optronics to detect fighters and fire a MICA-IR at them.

 

[denel]

AZM will most likely be a heavier class. J-31/35 will be medium weights or are thinking about JF-17-E ?

No, JF-17s remain a lightweight baseline but there will need to be continous evolution - i do see block 4/5 onwards happen.

 

[denel]

Hi,

The built in fear of a weapons system makes the enemy make mistakes & errors.

Correct; the Su's on paper appear to be very formidable and they are to some extent but size does not matter. David/Goliath scenario. Find their weakness and they will be on their knees.

 

[BON PLAN]

if J31 will be available by 2025 PAF should wait as acquiring J31 will give PAF the advantage while acquiring J10 will simply be an equalizar which could have been acheived with large numbers of jf-17s

However if j31 is a dead project then J10s would make some sense

F31 looks well ! but we don't know exactly the real perf....
J10 is better than JF17, but not really impressive (a F16 like bird, with nearly the same perf)

 

[BON PLAN]

Imagine this scenario: PAF Korals or airborne EW platforms jamming Rafale radars, while F-16's and Thunders under guidance of AEW&C can shoot at the Rafale with Aim-120's and Pl-12/15's before the Rafale can use it's optronics to detect fighters and fire a MICA-IR at them.

the same can be made by India. With more range thanks to Meteor.... (because India is not only MICA equipped...)