Rafale deal in its final stages: IAF chief Raha

[PARIKRAMA]

Bhai did u read latest reports on price tag for 36 rafale ? whopping 8-9 billion $ . Same price they quoted for qatar air force !!!
Now where is @Abingdonboy who believes India will buy 180-200 rafale with ToT !!! 36 jets without ToT 8-9 billion $ .

Lets not carried away this bullisg deal . Lets go far 36 Rafale (additional 18 to form 3 Squadrons. And place order for PakFa say 60-80 . Let this be realised till 2022 .Mean while focus should be on Tejas MK1-P atleast 60-80 in numbers . So by 2022 we will have very impressive fighter fleet with 80 tejas ,80 pakfa,52 Rafale to retire our old migs !!! And move on with MK 2 , FGFA , Super Sukois ,



That's why we will buy it ! MMRCA selection is totally Flaud ! One could wonder how Rafale selected as Lowest bidder ? 36 Rafale is a face saver deal to improve ties between two nation ,.. Its alright .French might invest atleast 30 -5-% as offset . Even if its not rafale parts but surely their private jets supply line

brother, we have still not seen where is cost getting escalated.. if we understand that IAF wanted longer maintenance of 40 years over standard package offered between 25-30 years, we would see an outlay of a good amount there itself. As per open sources, the annual maintenance cost of rafale in FAF is around $4 M (2011-12). If we assume say even $4 Mn a year per bird then
36x4 = $144 Mn a year
over 40 years = 144x40 = $ 5.760 Bn
if we take the normal flyaway cost + minimal standard weapons at say 80-90 Mn a bird then
36x90 = 3.24 Bn

Thus 3.24+5.76 is $9 Bn

But if the same packaged was given to another country then for 25 years maintenance cost would be 3.6 Bn and for 30 years its 4.32 Bn imlying
for 25 years the cost is reduced by 2.16 Bn and deal becomes 7Bn total
for 30 years the cost is reduced by 1.44 Bn and deal becomes 7.5 Bn total

So you see the price of individual rafale and standard weapons set (MICA already with India in good numbers via Mirage deals) is around $90 Mn per bird. The cost is actually via the longer maintenance cost over lifetime..

For any jets we are buying even if its Su30 MKI if we are taking a view from say maintenance cost over 40 years believe me, the similar amounts would be seen surely,

For MKI what i found in Internet is this
Follwoing article-albeit rather old-by Major General Ashok K Mehta (indian army) may shed some light on overall costs of MKI.

rediff.com: Major General Ashok K Mehta on the Sukhoi saga
The amortised per unit cost of the Su-30MKI will be a staggering Rs 1.61 billion. The up-front cost of the multi-role aircraft is the avionics and weapons fit. The 25 tonne Su-30MKI has eight hard points to carry another eight tonnes of missiles and bombs. This will cost money. That is not all. The hidden expenditure lies in the ownership or life-cycle cost, which in Russian aircraft is very high compared to the Western versions. The life-cycle cost of an Su-30MKI is likely to shoot up to Rs 4.5 billion.
Why is the maintenance and life support to Russian aircraft so expensive and complicated? First, the engine life is short and the TBO (Time Between Overhauls) low. After every 300 hours of flying, a lifespan of 3,000 hours, the engine has to be changed. The Su-30MKI has two engines. This gives it immense power and aerodynamics, which depend on canards and thrust vectoring for superb agility. After every 300 hours of flying, two engines, each costing $5 million, will need replacement.

PS. Assuming $1=Rs45 , Rs1.61 billion means aprox $36 mil and Rs4.6 billion mean $102 mil. (2000-01 time) - 2.8 times cost over 25 years and $4.08 Mn per year (2000-01 timeline)

Secondly Each Su-30MKI undergoes three overhauls during its 25-year operational life or 6,000 hours of flying time
HAL hands back first overhauled Su-30MKI to Indian Air Force - IHS Jane's 360

So lets go by what DM M parrikar quoted. he said each MKI is costing INR 358 Crs so cost at current prices
Govt takes note of Su-30MKI's poor 'serviceability' | Business Standard News
This INR 358 Crs is excluding weapons.


so total cost for a deal for 36 birds for 25 years 30 years 40 years is given below
Note i had adjusted maintainece cost from $4.08mn in 2000 timeline to $5 Mn (inflation adjustment)

Birds acquisition cost operational years operational cost @ $5 Mn/bird total in op cost Total in USD
36x358 = 12888 crs or $1.982 Bn 25 years $125 Mn $ 4.5 Bn $ 6.482 bn
30 years $ 150 Mn $ 5.4 Bn $ 7.382 Bn
40 years $ 200 Mn $ 7.2 Bn $ 9.182


So Su30 MKI without weapons over 40 years is costing $9 Bn and rafale with weapons is costing the same. Weapon package itself is around 1 Bn for either of MKI or Rafale in any given scenario.

So now why we are bickering over cost ? For 40 years MKI would cost also 60 Mn flyaway + 20 Mn weapons + 200 Mn maintenance - $ 280 Mn per plane. So how is MKI cheap as compared to rafale

TOT issue. We do make MKI but we dont have 100% TOT for MKI. in Case of Rafale in flyaway condition also we are getting 50% offset. Yes it cannot replace the quantum of TOT we learned from MKI but we have to also agree MKI deal was for 272. That gives lot more bargaining...


Bro the ppl are not saying everything. Irrespective of Russian or French, both jets to me are costly. But we need them anyways and we also need a reliable bird which is not russian as we are alredy planning 5th generation bird with Russia (PAKFA). The 5th generation would definitely cost at least another $75 -150 Mn per bird over 40 years as its yet to achieve economies of scale and new tech cost (R&D for 5th gen stuff) would push the price up anyways

@Abingdonboy : You feel any issue with calculations shown.. I think i have tried to illustrate a few nitty gritty things here.

 

[Ind4Ever]

brother, we have still not seen where is cost getting escalated.. if we understand that IAF wanted longer maintenance of 40 years over standard package offered between 25-30 years, we would see an outlay of a good amount there itself. As per open sources, the annual maintenance cost of rafale in FAF is around $4 M (2011-12). If we assume say even $4 Mn a year per bird then
36x4 = $144 Mn a year
over 40 years = 144x40 = $ 5.760 Bn
if we take the normal flyaway cost + minimal standard weapons at say 80-90 Mn a bird then
36x90 = 3.24 Bn

Thus 3.24+5.76 is $9 Bn

But if the same packaged was given to another country then for 25 years maintenance cost would be 3.6 Bn and for 30 years its 4.32 Bn imlying
for 25 years the cost is reduced by 2.16 Bn and deal becomes 7Bn total
for 30 years the cost is reduced by 1.44 Bn and deal becomes 7.5 Bn total

So you see the price of individual rafale and standard weapons set (MICA already with India in good numbers via Mirage deals) is around $90 Mn per bird. The cost is actually via the longer maintenance cost over lifetime..

For any jets we are buying even if its Su30 MKI if we are taking a view from say maintenance cost over 40 years believe me, the similar amounts would be seen surely,

For MKI what i found in Internet is this
Follwoing article-albeit rather old-by Major General Ashok K Mehta (indian army) may shed some light on overall costs of MKI.

rediff.com: Major General Ashok K Mehta on the Sukhoi saga
The amortised per unit cost of the Su-30MKI will be a staggering Rs 1.61 billion. The up-front cost of the multi-role aircraft is the avionics and weapons fit. The 25 tonne Su-30MKI has eight hard points to carry another eight tonnes of missiles and bombs. This will cost money. That is not all. The hidden expenditure lies in the ownership or life-cycle cost, which in Russian aircraft is very high compared to the Western versions. The life-cycle cost of an Su-30MKI is likely to shoot up to Rs 4.5 billion.
Why is the maintenance and life support to Russian aircraft so expensive and complicated? First, the engine life is short and the TBO (Time Between Overhauls) low. After every 300 hours of flying, a lifespan of 3,000 hours, the engine has to be changed. The Su-30MKI has two engines. This gives it immense power and aerodynamics, which depend on canards and thrust vectoring for superb agility. After every 300 hours of flying, two engines, each costing $5 million, will need replacement.

PS. Assuming $1=Rs45 , Rs1.61 billion means aprox $36 mil and Rs4.6 billion mean $102 mil. (2000-01 time) - 2.8 times cost over 25 years and $4.08 Mn per year (2000-01 timeline)

Secondly Each Su-30MKI undergoes three overhauls during its 25-year operational life or 6,000 hours of flying time
HAL hands back first overhauled Su-30MKI to Indian Air Force - IHS Jane's 360

So lets go by what DM M parrikar quoted. he said each MKI is costing INR 358 Crs so cost at current prices
Govt takes note of Su-30MKI's poor 'serviceability' | Business Standard News
This INR 358 Crs is excluding weapons.


so total cost for a deal for 36 birds for 25 years 30 years 40 years is given below
Note i had adjusted maintainece cost from $4.08mn in 2000 timeline to $5 Mn (inflation adjustment)

Birds acquisition cost operational years operational cost @ $5 Mn/bird total in op cost Total in USD
36x358 = 12888 crs or $1.982 Bn 25 years $125 Mn $ 4.5 Bn $ 6.482 bn
30 years $ 150 Mn $ 5.4 Bn $ 7.382 Bn
40 years $ 200 Mn $ 7.2 Bn $ 9.182


So Su30 MKI without weapons over 40 years is costing $9 Bn and rafale with weapons is costing the same. Weapon package itself is around 1 Bn for either of MKI or Rafale in any given scenario.

So now why we are bickering over cost ? For 40 years MKI would cost also 60 Mn flyaway + 20 Mn weapons + 200 Mn maintenance - $ 280 Mn per plane. So how is MKI cheap as compared to rafale

TOT issue. We do make MKI but we dont have 100% TOT for MKI. in Case of Rafale in flyaway condition also we are getting 50% offset. Yes it cannot replace the quantum of TOT we learned from MKI but we have to also agree MKI deal was for 272. That gives lot more bargaining...


Bro the ppl are not saying everything. Irrespective of Russian or French, both jets to me are costly. But we need them anyways and we also need a reliable bird which is not russian as we are alredy planning 5th generation bird with Russia (PAKFA). The 5th generation would definitely cost at least another $75 -150 Mn per bird over 40 years as its yet to achieve economies of scale and new tech cost (R&D for 5th gen stuff) would push the price up anyways

@Abingdonboy : You feel any issue with calculations shown.. I think i have tried to illustrate a few nitty gritty things here.

As far as i know Rafale 2012 cost : per plan alone was 100-101 mil $

New deal : Rs 800 crore per plane plus weapons for 36 rafale deal as per Teleghraph .In other words, the 36 planes will cost Rs 28,800 crore.

The Sukhoi 30Mki, the most modern aircraft in our air force's inventory, currently costs between Rs 420 and 430 crore. So i doubt how french can even provide these jets well below 2012 quotations even for their own air force like for 90 million .

(Oct-Dec 2000): 140 Su-30MKI jets to be manufactured by HAL at a total cost of $4,809 million(Rs 22,122.78 crore). $4,809 million includes: Cost for license, ToT(Transfer of Technology), assistance & for setting up the production line in HAL(Hindustan Aeronautics Limited), $350 million or less for components procured from Irkut which wasn't manufactured by HAL, 26 aircraft kits supplied by Irkut & assembled by HAL, and the actual production in HAL. So the average cost of the HAL manufactured fighter is $34.35 million.So price of each HAL manufactured Su-30MKI has increased from $34.35 million in 2000, to $61 million in 2005, to finally $70 million currently, according to CAG's(Comptroller and Auditor General of India) estimation.

Initially it was reported that 50 Su-30MKI jets are to be acquired from HAL. Unit flyaway cost around $45 million. So the total cost will be around $2250 million. However the deal was revised to only 42 jets, which includes several upgrades. The cost of the deal is reported to be over Rs 20,000 crores or over $4 billion. That translates to an unit cost of more than $95 million!! It appears CAG's estimation of cost overruns in Deal 3 is finally allocated in this deal, or is the price of a single Su-30MKI really over $95 million? In the end it turned out that the price escalation had a simple explanation and had nothing to with "Russian Treachery" or MOD corruption. It was as usual, dumb reporting from unprofessional Indian media outlets. The deal stipulates that the 42 Su-30MKI will be delivered to India, by Irkutsk, in semi-knocked down condition, at a cost of only 38 million dollars each.

If you say Sukhois are costly than rafale then i may disagree with you. Latest report from Eurofighter on Rafales estimated cost was 140$ per aircraft without maintenance and weapons

. The Economic Times quoted government sources as saying Dassault would provide a 25 per cent discount, offering 36 Rafales for $200 million each, in a contract for about $8 billion.

"Dassault had quoted $80 million in the MMRCA tender for each of the 18 Rafales it was to supply in flyaway condition. There is no way Dassault can supply the Rafale for less than $80 million today," points out Abhijit Iyer-Mitra, an aerospace expert at the Observer Research Foundation.

This is from march :

. The Economic Times quoted government sources as saying Dassault would provide a 25 per cent discount, offering 36 Rafales for $200 million each, in a contract for about $8 billion.

If we can get rafale for the amount you quoted then MMRCA would have been inked don't you think ? . Main reason we dint by 124 rafale is the cost escalation on fly away condition of rafale itself . Later comes these maintenance and weapons cost

 

[GURU DUTT]

As far as i know Rafale 2012 cost : per plan alone was 100-101 mil $

New deal : Rs 800 crore per plane plus weapons for 36 rafale deal as per Teleghraph .In other words, the 36 planes will cost Rs 28,800 crore.

The Sukhoi 30Mki, the most modern aircraft in our air force's inventory, currently costs between Rs 420 and 430 crore. So i doubt how french can even provide these jets well below 2012 quotations even for their own air force like for 90 million .

(Oct-Dec 2000): 140 Su-30MKI jets to be manufactured by HAL at a total cost of $4,809 million(Rs 22,122.78 crore). $4,809 million includes: Cost for license, ToT(Transfer of Technology), assistance & for setting up the production line in HAL(Hindustan Aeronautics Limited), $350 million or less for components procured from Irkut which wasn't manufactured by HAL, 26 aircraft kits supplied by Irkut & assembled by HAL, and the actual production in HAL. So the average cost of the HAL manufactured fighter is $34.35 million.So price of each HAL manufactured Su-30MKI has increased from $34.35 million in 2000, to $61 million in 2005, to finally $70 million currently, according to CAG's(Comptroller and Auditor General of India) estimation.

If you say Sukhois are costly than rafale then i may disagree with you. Latest report from Eurofighter on Rafales estimated cost was 140$ per aircraft without maintenance and weapons



This is from march :

If we can get rafale for the amount you quoted then MMRCA would have been inked don't you think ? . Main reason we dint by 124 rafale is the cost escalation on fly away condition of rafale itself . Later comes these maintenance and weapons cost

inshort if rafale's fly away cost is 140 million $s and Mig-35 is 60 Million $s & F/A-18 EF is 85 Millon $s what do you think MOD gonna do ..... my guess is advanced super hornet makes the cut as 36 hornets will cost 3.06 billion $s while same number of rafales will cost 5.04 billon $s means we save almost 2 billon$s for which we can have a full squad of hornets with wepons + US AESA based radar & avionikcs & wepons are better than french anyday

 

[zambino]

The Rafale was cancelled from 126 to only 36.

Provide sources for your claims if the truth is otherwise.

sir couple of weeks ago a news circulated that iaf will float rfp for 90 make in india fighters. Do you think that iaf will buy another jet and make the blunder of a logistical nightmare ? India will assemble rafales in knock down kits.sorry sir i can't provide u link but @Abingdonboy can show you.

 

[Ind4Ever]

inshort if rafale's fly away cost is 140 million $s and Mig-35 is 60 Million $s & F/A-18 EF is 85 Millon $s what do you think MOD gonna do ..... my guess is advanced super hornet makes the cut as 36 hornets will cost 3.06 billion $s while same number of rafales will cost 5.04 billon $s means we save almost 2 billon$s for which we can have a full squad of hornets with wepons + US AESA based radar & avionikcs & wepons are better than french anyday

F 18s are at their end stage ! May be will be operational for another 10-15 years with US marine corp. That too when F16s with PAF it's not a good idea for us to buy F16 or F18 as fear factor is gone. What India need is superior BVR capabilities and less RCS . Rafale and EF both are best options but both are way too costly. Now we have better option. which is PakFa as we anyway will operate huge number of FGFA . PakFa unlike rafale its full stealth. That should be our aim . Very soon Chinese will mass produce J20 and J31 , At Least as per paper spec these jets will have full stealth technology which will out match our Su30 MKI .

 

[GURU DUTT]

F 18s are at their end stage ! May be will be operational for another 10-15 years with US marine corp. That too when F16s with PAF it's not a good idea for us to buy F16 or F18 as fear factor is gone. What India need is superior BVR capabilities and less RCS . Rafale and EF both are best options but both are way too costly. Now we have better option. which is PakFa as we anyway will operate huge number of FGFA . PakFa unlike rafale its full stealth. That should be our aim . Very soon Chinese will mass produce J20 and J31 , At Least as per paper spec these jets will have full stealth technology which will out match our Su30 MKI .

so then the proposed price tag of FGFA is around 100 million $s (10%+/-) even then rafales are too expensive and FGFA is almost ready so instead of wasting money on rafales its better to go for FGFA and later the twin seat PAKFA and in that we can incorporate some cutting edge western techs aswell

 

[Ind4Ever]

so then the proposed price tag of FGFA is around 100 million $s (10%+/-) even then rafales are too expensive and FGFA is almost ready so instead of wasting money on rafales its better to go for FGFA and later the twin seat PAKFA and in that we can incorporate some cutting edge western techs aswell

We might buy russian variant as of now

 

[GURU DUTT]

We might buy russian variant as of now

we are doing just that ... stay tuned

as for rafales they will come but not in more than whats M2Ks strenth in IAF

 

[Abingdonboy]

GOI says only 36 will be ordered

No, that is not what they have said- not once. The only thing we conclusively know is that 36 are being negotiated for in a flyaway state at the moment- end of story, to infer from this that that is the final number is absurd.

36 Rafales= 2 SQNs worth (just about) with zero war reserves and the Indian Mil ALWAYS accounts for war reserves so what does that tell us? Basically that these 36 are not the final number.

The Rafale was cancelled from 126 to only 36.

In case you missed the news, the MoD has drafted a process to have private partners in India tie up with Dassualt to build 90 jets (Rafales) in India. The Media have taken this news and, for some unknown reason, dubbed it the "MMRCA 2.0" when this is not an open competition whatsoever and there are no other OEMs involved- this is purely for the Rafale.

Will Sukhoi Design Bureau get RFP for MMRCA 2.0? | idrw.org

The F-16IN Super Viper Could Get Another Shot with the Indian Air Force | The Tactical Air Network

Bhai did u read latest reports on price tag for 36 rafale ? whopping 8-9 billion $ . Same price they quoted for qatar air force !!!

Well this is all pure speculation, the other day a media report had cited a cost of $5BN for the 36 so there is little point in speculating to this degree whilst we still don't know the specifics of the deal.

I shall reiterate what I had said a few days ago though to illustrate why all these napkin calculations are HIGHLY misleading and are not the basis of a solid argument against the Rafale:

Dividing $5bn by 36 to get your unit price of 139 USD (not Euros bro) is a far too simplistic and flawed method of calculating the actual unit cost of the Rafales being sold to India. As I've explained before, such a deal will include the cost of a large amount of spares, training, simulators, integrating Indian (customer) specific equipment (like LITENING LDPs and HMDS)weapons, support packages, warrantees, stetting up requisite ground infrastructure in India etc etc. These are mammoth costs but will only be incurred the once, it will be far more sensible to calculate the unit cost of Rafales being sold to India when India orders follow-on units (even then only if they are coming from France, if they are being built in India which is more likely then it will be difficult to compare like for like).


And the MiG-35 is a dead horse, they aren't even selling it to their own forces or anyone else- the IAF aren't going for it end of story.


+it's funny how the price keeps dropping, before it was reported India will get 36 for $10BN, then $8BN now only $5BN.



Let's wait and see the true figure and what comes with the package.

Oh and just to add, to make the numbers further redundant, the French have apparently agreed to 50% offsets so if we are playing fair you should cut the unit costs you have calculated by 50%

And place order for PakFa say 60-80 . Let this be realised till 2022 .

So by 2022 we will have very impressive fighter fleet with 80 tejas ,80 pakfa,52 Rafale to retire our old migs !!!

The Russians were meant to have the PAK-FA in service by now but haven't even flown any new TDs in the past few months, they are in NO position to service the immediate needs of the IAF nor has the IAF shown any inclination to have anything less than their bespoke, customer-specif FGFA. Right now we all better pray the (already revised) 2022 deadline for the FGFA in service is met but with no FGFA actually having been fabricated to date (it should have been in test flying in India by now) this doesn't look promising.

That's why we will buy it ! MMRCA selection is totally Flaud ! One could wonder how Rafale selected as Lowest bidder ?

It is pretty simple, of the 6 contenders only the EFT and Rafale met the TECHNICAL criteria of the IAF and were thus "down-selected", it was only then that the price submissions were opened and the Rafale declared L1.

No one said the Rafale was the cheapest jet in the MMRCA competition but it was the cheapest jet to THAT MET THE IAF'S TECHNICAL SPECIFICATIONS. Now if you want to dilute the IAF's requirements to purely that of cost that is a separate conversation and a dangerous one to have but one cannot criticise the MMRCA process, it was fair to a fault.

36 Rafale is a face saver deal to improve ties between two nation

Well no, this is not at all what happened, this (relatively small deal) is not going to make or break in fact both sides have come under criticism for downgrading the numbers from 126 to 36 (not that this what has happened for the above reasons stated but it is all about perceptions) so this is actually the worst of both worlds. Do you think the CAG would be satisfied by the GoI's "face saving" effort or do you think they would (rightly) chastise them no end for such a blunder?

Have no mistake, a deal for 36 Rafales (or even 52) would be one of the largest white elephant deals India had ever signed, forget about Bofors, forget about TATRA, forget about AW-101- this would be the defining failure of the NDA IF they were stupid enough to go for such a economically unviable number of Rafales. And this is a govt who brags (almost weekly) about reducing wastage, corruption, scams and such.

Speak to anyone from the defence industry (specifically those dealing with lifetime support) and they would tell you that for the IAF to get such a small number and to use them how they would want to use them (spread out across the country in geographically dispersed airbases) it is simply not viable.

Yes, for AFs and nations like Egypt and Qatar 24-36 is perfectly okay, they are only going to be operating their Rafales from 1 base (at most 2) where all of the support structures can easily be set up but for the IAF who is increasing the number fighter bases it has, who insists on the Rafale being able to operate in any one of them- from Car Nicobar to Leh- the logistical and service requirements are VAST and by getting such a pitiful number the IAF would have 2 choices
1) operate the Rafales from a single base (by the way the IAF has already ruled this out)

2) conduct the highly cost-prohibitive exercise of setting up requisite infrastructure for handling Rafales across their scores of airbases for barely 3 SQNs worth of jets.

As such the IAF either has to entirely change its intended methodology for operating these platforms or waste copious amounts of tax payer money.

Basically, anything less than 80 Rafales makes this entire purchase a waste of both time and huge quantities of resources that will later come back to bite both the IAF and BJP/NDA in the backside, are either side stupid enough to get themselves in such a situation?

The Sukhoi 30Mki, the most modern aircraft in our air force's inventory, currently costs between Rs 420 and 430 crore. So i doubt how french can even provide these jets well below 2012 quotations even for their own air force like for 90 million .

This is another fallacy- the MKI costs significantly less than the Rafale to procure. Let's look purely at unit costs shall we because we all know how poorly the MKI would fare in a comparative lifecycle cost analysis against the Rafale.

Many of the figures used to quote prices for the Su-30MKI are entirely irrelevant not only because they are citing circa-2012 figures (when the latest batch of 42 were ordered) but, crucially, because if the IAF were to order Su-30MKIs today, they would not be ordering the latest Batch-3 standard but would be ordering what is to be the next production standard i.e. the "Super" Su-30MKI standard. Now whilst the IAF, HAL, Sukhoi etc have all not given actual costs for a new build "Super" Su-30MKI with Bhramos-A launch-capability (which is interesting in itself if you think about it) from what one can surmise you are not going to get a lot of change from $120 (a very conservative figure) per plane and that too for a plane that is not an adequate replacement for this "super expensive" Rafale that the IAF can definitely not afford (apparently).

So let's get to the capability gap between the Rafale. The Su-30MKI is an absolutely superb plane however, by the IAF's own parlance it is, at the heart of it, an "Air Dominace" fighter and this is the area MKI pilots are extremely well versed in but it is hardly the "Omnirole" fighter the Rafale was designed to be from the outset. Yes, the "Omnirole" term is extremely flattering lexicon used by Dassualt themselves but it is also an appropriate term. The IAF always had the option to go for more MKIs but they opted to initiate the MMRCA (the second letter standing for Multi-role crucially) impressed by the performance of their M2Ks in Kargil (where Su-30s were also in their inventory- admittedly not in their full "MKI" state). Between the light weight point defence a/c that is the LCA and the heavy fighter Air dominance fighter that is their MKI, there exists a very real capability gap for long range, low level, strike aircraft. Previously this had been the forte of the IAF's Jaguars but clearly in the 21st contrary these planes are no longer fit for purpose and would require escorts when operating near enemy lines (not true of the Rafale). And here, the MKI falls well short- it is not and was never designed to be this kind of low-level, deep strike a/c (why do you think the RuAF has developed the Su-34?). I could articulate this using my own words but I think Mr Sengupta states the case very well:

A simple check with Russian Aircraft Corp & Rosoboronexport State Corp would easily have revealed that the Su-30MKI's airframe was never developed for the deep interdiction mission role & is thus not certified to fly at such low-altitudes & furthermore, it does not possess any on-board mission avionics/sensors that are required for terrain-hugging flight navigation.

Mission sensors for terrain-hugging or terrain avoidance flight profiles are USELESS unless the airframe itself is strengthened to withstand the stresses & strains associated with sustained low-level flight. The Su-30MKI's airframe, unlike that of the F-15E or Rafale, is NEITHER STRENGTHENED NOR CERTIFIED for undertaking low-level flights for deep interdiction. Only the Su-34's airframe is. Therefore, even if the Super Su-30MKI is equipped with an AESA-MMR with built-in terrain avoidance mode of operation, the aircraft's airframe will remain the same & therefore the Super Su-30MKI too will not be able to fly lo-lo-lo flight profiles




Then it comes to the real crunch- airworthiness and lifetime operations. This is where the Rafale (and most Western aircraft) absolutely destroy the Su-30MKI (and most Russian a/c that a plagued by high AOG rates). It is already an established fact the IAF's MKI fleet has a poor availability rate- this is a matter of public record as the DM had to say as much in Parliament. The best case scenario (as articulated by the DM) is that the MKI fleet attains an availability rate of 70-75% (this should be a bit of a gasp moment). Compare this to the IAF's C-17 fleet who, by contractual agreement with Boeing, have to maintain a minimum availability rate of 85% . Yes this is apples and oranges considering one is a fighter jet, the other a transport a/c (a four engined one but still) but even the FrAF managed to achieve an availability rate of around 80% with their Rafales during their 2013 Libyan air campaign and this was during active operations! The IAF has had a 65% availability rate on their MKIs for a few years during PEACE TIME in their home bases with little to no stresses other than routine training missions- the juxtaposition is stark.

Beyond availability rates, it is a known fact that French/Western aircraft are built with the idea of being easy to be worked on in mind, for example a Snemca M-88 on a Rafale can be "dropped out" and replaced in a matter of a few hours, a similar job on the AL-31 of a MKI would take the best part of half/three quarters of a day. Dassualt will bring the same concept developed with the FrAF wherein MRO work is conducted at the Rafale's home bases themselves which would negate the need to have dedicated BRDs where such overhaul/maintenance work for this type occurs away from their offsite (as how the MKI and MiG-29s are maintained currently). This is will clearly be a ideological, and technological shift for the IAF.


Oh and shall we discuss the per hour flight cost now? Whilst these figures vary massively and are disputed all over the internet, from what I have been able to piece together, the average flight hour in a Su-30 (not an MKI but I don't know how significant that is) is around $24,000 USD (I have seen figures quoted as high as $27,000) and for the Rafale the average flight hour is around $12,000 (I have seen figures as high as $16,000). Over the course of the plane's lifespan (30-40 years) this is obviously going to add up to a differential in the hundreds of millions- perhaps offsetting (if there is one) the unit cost differential between the two types, significantly.

There is a reason the IAF (and all agencies really) have entirely ditched unit cost analysis for decision making and have now fully adopted LCC (life cycle cost) analysis as it is far more accurate and logical. Thus it would be prudent to note that once the IAF has wholeheartedly adopted this approach the Russians have failed to win a SINGLE defence deal (barring government intervention-Ka-226) and it is Western products that have all won (A330 MRTT, AH-64E, CH-47F) in comparative, level playing field, evaluations.



So what am I saying?


1)Su-30MKIs are no longer that much cheaper upfront
2)The Rafale is cheaper (and easier) to operate over the lifespan
3)The Su-30MKI is harder to keep airworthy and will inherently deliver inferior availability rates to the Rafale
4) The Su-30MKI can not suitably cover the Rafale's entire operational capability, specifically in the A2G domain


I am reminded of the line from the line from the Usual Suspects "the greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist ", similarly the greatest trick the media/MoD/DM/any other idiot ever pulled was convincing bloggers/fanboys that the Su-30MKI is a cheap and suitable replacement for the Rafale.

The IAF specifically ruled this out.


Oh and by the way, everything I have said vis a vis the Su-30MKI vs the Rafale applies to the FGFA vs Rafale but perhaps is even more apparent in the FGFA's case (and the PAK-FA's even though it will never see service with the IAF) given its lifecycle costs are going to be ASTRONOMICAL and its availability rates abysmal (by Western/modern standards). Look to the F-22's example in the USAF, for every 1 flight hour it requires something stupid like 11 hours in maintenance and F-22 pilots log only around 100 flight hours a year (about half what F-15/16 pilots log). 5th gen planes are neither cheap to buy nor cheap to operate.

This is from march : If we can get rafale for the amount you quoted then MMRCA would have been inked don't you think ? . Main reason we dint by 124 rafale is the cost escalation on fly away condition of rafale itself . Later comes these maintenance and weapons cost

Going by media reports and taking them as gospel is a dangerous, and misleading, approach to take- they have questionable motives, contradict each other left, right and centre and are often entirely baseless.

inshort if rafale's fly away cost is 140 million $s and Mig-35 is 60 Million $s & F/A-18 EF is 85 Millon $s

Well I think I have covered (to death) the fallacy involved in calculating unit costs and the inherent flaw involved in simply looking at unit costs. However I would point out that for all the MiG-35 is said to offer that unit cost is a steal and yet it has failed to score a SINGLE order- not even from its domestic forces. Clearly the professionals know something that we don't.

what do you think MOD gonna do ..... my guess is advanced super hornet makes the cut as 36 hornets will cost 3.06 billion $s while same number of rafales will cost 5.04 billon $s means we save almost 2 billon$s for which we can have a full squad of hornets with wepons + US AESA based radar & avionikcs & wepons are better than french anyday

The only thing stupider then buying just 36 Rafales (for the reasons I have stated above) would be compounding this move by purchasing an entirely DIFFERENT fighter and incurring all the inherent training,maintenance, logistics etc costs that go with procuring any new system.

It simply isn't going to happen- the moment the deal for 36 Rafales is signed you might as well consider 100+ Rafales bought.

Very soon Chinese will mass produce J20 and J31 ,

Well let's see how that works out for them, to think they are going to develop a world-beating 5th gen platform and topple those who have been in this game for close to a century straight away, is beyond absurd. Oh and this at a time when they are (apparently) still in talks for the Su-35 AND their domestic engine project is going so well they have signed up for more RD-93 engines from Russia.

so then the proposed price tag of FGFA is around 100 million $s (10%+/-)

See above. If the FGFA's unit price is anything close to $100MN by the time the IAF starts inducting them I will rip off and consume my entire leg for you.

We might buy russian variant as of now

Not going to happen.

we are doing just that ... stay tuned

Again, this is a non-starter.





@Gabriel92 @halloweene @sancho @PARIKRAMA @SpArK @Bang Galore anything to add?

 

[imtiaz nabi]

What about their lca tejas?

 

[zambino]

What about their lca tejas?

it failed to takeoff. we are now consulting the chinese so that they can give us some techs from jf17

 

[zambino]

So it mean it was just a waste of time?

yes. Anything else u wanna ask?

 

[soldier of Putin]

It was too good to be true. Rafale and India are on two worlds. The two worlds will remain forever apart.

 

[imtiaz nabi]

So will they be able to beat pakistani f16 block 52+ and jf17 thunder block 2 with su30MKI?

 

[zambino]

So will they be able to beat pakistani f16 block 52+ and jf17 thunder block 2 with su30MKI?

no we endians gonna loose in front of jf 17 becoz it has superior dsi tech. Our su30mki is nothing in front of your jf17.