Featured QUAD is unrealistic to be NATO

[vi-va]

What China does that is clever is that it sets up a battlefield to its preference prior to declaring hostilities.

This simple yet effective strategy gave China an advantage against India in Ladakh as we saw how stretched and ineffective India's supply lines were in response.

Likewise in Asia-Pacific, this "Quad" is truly a desperate attempt to level a playing field heavily tilted in China's favour. There is nothing any of these players can actually achieve against China without assuring their own economic and/or military devastation in response. The only nation that stands a chance is the USA itself, through aircraft carriers, subs and island bases and military technological supremacy. They may dress it up as a "Quad" for publicity, but everyone knows this is simply China vs USA, and China has battlefield advantage which should compensate for USA's military hardware advantage.

Can I thumb up you twice, bro?

One of the biggest difference between Cold War and US/China competition is "No shared borders". Chairman Mao achieved this by Korean War and Vietnam War.

Many people other than Chinese don't understand the greatness of Chairman Mao, no one including me can completely get rid of bias created by Media, Education, Culture, Arts, Philosophy - THE SPHERE around us.

Mao was heavily demonized for past 72 years, every year, every week, every single damn day. The West, especially US hate Chairman Mao so much, they can't help to demonized everything Mao did.

When China was so weak, militarily and economically, we had direct war with US and 17 other so called UN military on Korean peninsula. And indirectly war with US in Vietnam.

US lost the chance to have a direct confrontation, pressure China on the border like what US did against Soviet during Cold War in Europe.

There is no US treaty alliance has shared border with China, which means our rival can either have large scale or even full scale war in the Ocean, or just bluff.

As everyone can see it, US is in deep trouble, demographically, economically, and politically. No other countries dare to have a full scale war with China, it will be devastating for them, including India.

India nuclear warhead equivalent is only 20k*100 tons TNT, less then 3% of China. There is no way India can do anything significantly enough to hurt China.

Skirmish in Ladakh favor Chinese so much that, the India supply along Shyok River is so fragile, literally 50k Indian soldiers are under Chinese mercy. I will be sleepless if I am Modi or India Army General.

QUAD is no way to be NATO, geopolitically divided, economically unsustainable, militarily favor China.

The more US spent on West Pacific, the sooner US empire collapse.

We(PDFers) will witness US empire collapse within 10 years or so because of foolish overstretch, and US will have to shrink quickly. US will withdraw from:

1. Afghanistan
2. Iraq
3. West Pacific
4. Europe

 

[SuvarnaTeja]

What do you propose India should do in this case?

India should just sit out and stay clear of getting involved in US-China wars.

There is absolutely nothing that India would gain by getting involved in this tussle and power struggle.

When two elephants fight, it is the ants that die.

 

[shanlung]

South Korea:

1. South Korea major threat and interest is North Korea. While the last thing South Korea want to do is threatening China core interest.
2. If South Korea did so, then simple, China will arm North Korea with second hand weapons. South Korea knew very well that confrontation with China is the worst option.

Japan

1. Japan is smart and foxy. Japan will keep using US resource, technology, market, while try to get more independence.
2. Japan lost WW2, a huge lesson to be remembered for 1000 years, conquered by US, humiliated, bombed by nukes.
3. Japan love US sincerely? God damn no.
4. US truly trust Japan? God damn no.
5. US does not tolerate Japan independence. That's the cruel reality. A lap dog is what US needed.

Aussie:

1. Aussie only 25 millions population. 12% of Pakistan, 1.7% of China population. What can Aussie do against China? Want to be bombed or conquered? Suicidal.
2. Don't forget China is Aussie biggest customer. More the second and third biggest customers combined.

India:

1. India economy is slowing down, even before pandemic. Modi can keep thumping 55" inch chest(smaller than 2014), but he must spend resource on economy, not war.
2. Modi was checkmated in Aksai Chin, tens of thousands soldiers have to be forward deployed, with a fragile supply lane. A war with China, even medium scale skirmish will make Modi's be sleepless.
3. The reality is India is facing two damn front war. The last thing India want. The best thing for Pakistan.
4. US push India to the frontline, frankly speaking, using India as cannon fodder against both China and Pakistan. US and UK are good at it, stir the milky water, making 3 nuclear powers confront on land dispute. While India will be exhausted and used as proxy.
5. I bet Modi has finally realized that US won't help India. What a fool.

US:

1. The last thing US want is India becoming another China. US would rather use India as cannon fodder.
2. US is in big trouble.
   1. Demographically and economically.
   2. Financially crisis, much worse than 2008.
   3. Pandemic will last another several month.
   4. US FED has printed trillions of dollars, debt is 21 trillions
3. US is divided, more and more like India.
4. US defense budget is high, there is no room to increase. But China is steadily increasing defense budget.
5. More importantly, US had an edge on pioneer defense technology, while China has catching up.
6. The geography favor China in West Pacific. In Cold War, there are numerous air base in West Europe. While in West Pacific, Japan, Japan, Japan.
7. The first island chain is fragile. only several air base can be used which are all targeted by China Rocket Force, thousands of missiles. Especially DF-17, Hypersonic Glide Vehicle

Long term:

1. Soviet lost Cold War. The GDP of Warsaw Pact is much smaller than NATO + Korea + Japan + Canada. Soviet facing 2-3 front war, West Europe, North East Pacific, Caucasia, Arctic Ocean.
2. China focus on West Pacific, which means US can only leverage the military force of Japan + Aussie.
3. China GNP in PPP term is much bigger than US, GNP in nominal term will surpass US in 2026 or so.
4. China long term GNP will be 2X of US, or even bigger.

International Environment:

1. No countries want Cold War, Japan doesn't, Aussie doesn't, Korea doesn't, maybe except US.
2. Soviet has not much relationship with US allies. China has more trade and commercial relationship with US allies than US itself.
3. China is the biggest single market and biggest trade partners of most countries in the world.
4. China retail market is over 6 trillions, bigger then US, and increasing much faster then US.
5. China enjoyed much better neighborhood relationship and has very close ties with all neighbors, especially Russia, Central Asia, South East Asia.

Conclusion:

1. There is no way US can isolate China.
2. The US allies actually using hedging tactic between China and US.
3. China has back safeguarded, mainly focus on one side which is West Pacific.
4. China has much greater potential to dominate West Pacific, while US has reach it's peak.
5. The geopolitics is in China favor.
6. US empire is declining, inner issues is much bigger then outer challenges.
7. US financial situation is deteriorating.

The balance of power is shifting quickly. US has already withdraw to Guam and Aussie. The first island chain is fragile, ROI is bad.

Please let me know your thought.

One correction!

Murican withdrew from Guam .

Murica know their bombers in Guam are sitting ducks should pushing turn into real shoving.

Bombers last known to be hiding behind the 4th Island chain and Frisco bay

Air Force Ends Continuous Bomber Presence in Guam | Air & Space Forces Magazine

USAF said it will no longer base strategic bombers outside the continental U.S., marking an end to the service's 16-year continuous bomber presence in Guam.

www.airforcemag.com

 

[vi-va]

One correction!

Murican withdrew from Guam .

Murica know their bombers in Guam are sitting ducks should pushing turn into real shoving.

Bombers last known to be hiding behind the 4th Island chain and Frisco bay

Air Force Ends Continuous Bomber Presence in Guam | Air & Space Forces Magazine

USAF said it will no longer base strategic bombers outside the continental U.S., marking an end to the service's 16-year continuous bomber presence in Guam.

www.airforcemag.com

In the white paper of US defense, true. US bomber will be in Alaska, refueled in the air. Guam is too small, there is no way bomber can hide in Guam. Military bases in Guam will be wiped out in the first couple of hours of war.

 

[shanlung]

In the white paper of US defense, true. US bomber will be in Alaska, refueled in the air. Guam is too small, there is no way bomber can hide in Guam. Military bases in Guam will be wiped out in the first couple of hours of war.

As said, hiding behind the 4th Island Chain and Frisco Bay.
And in time, so will those at Diego Garcia as well be hiding behind that 4th Island chain
4th island chain consisting of Prince of Wales island, Graham island, Vancouver island, Frisco Bay and Channel islands of California

 

[Cheepek]

Quad was created by the US as a bargaining chip to negotiate a good deal with China.

Once US & China reach an agreement, US will dump India and impose crippling sanctions on India.

It is a shame that Modi & his gang have decided to throw India under the bus with this Quad nonsense.

US will never come to the aid of India like USSR did in 1971.

Quad is a one way commitment. India is obligated to support the US but the US is not obligated to support India.

US is a declining power and if US wants to be happy being #2 then they might as well make a deal with China.
You cannot expect same support from Russia as from erstwhile USSR, a LOT of things have changed.
So you only have options, either 1) go solo or 2) go with US.
If incase 2) doesn't work then we have only 1), and we'll manage it now all thanks to recent developments.
India is pushing ahead with it's own interests in IOR and not US interests through the QUAD! You've got things horribly wrong! Stop reading propaganda!

 

[GumNaam]

the open secret hidden in plain sight right under everyone's noses is that america is pushing the quad precisely because washington knows all too well that the u.s. just can't compete with China militarily on any front, PERIOD!

 

[shanlung]

the open secret hidden in plain sight right under everyone's noses is that america is pushing the quad precisely because washington knows all too well that the u.s. just can't compete with China militarily on any front, PERIOD!

The only reason for QUAD is that they served primarily as cannon fodder and to absorb the Mach3s AShMs and DFs of China.

Except China got lots and lots of those Mach 3s and DFs to give to QUAD and Murica and 5Eyes and France and any others wanting to taste firepower any time the pushing going into shoving.

 

[vi-va]

US is a declining power and if US wants to be happy being #2 then they might as well make a deal with China.
You cannot expect same support from Russia as from erstwhile USSR, a LOT of things have changed.
So you only have options, either 1) go solo or 2) go with US.
If incase 2) doesn't work then we have only 1), and we'll manage it now all thanks to recent developments.
India is pushing ahead with it's own interests in IOR and not US interests through the QUAD! You've got things horribly wrong! Stop reading propaganda!

QUAD is Anglo-Saxon traditional DIVIDE AND RULE.

Using India, Japan, Aussie as cannon fodder. Will US fight for India? NO!

 

[Vapnope]

While the threat from economic front can be massive however from military perspective it would take a decade before all countries can jointly develop tactics and commonality amongst their respective militaries. NATO countries enjoy similarity of equipment and commonality of the doctrine and military tactics which isn't the case here.

 

[Avatar]

I don't see any tangible threat from China towards India other than supplying faulty electronics with explosive battery packs or unreliable medical equipment after unleashing the global pandemic, and with US we enjoy streaming high quality entertainment over the free internets.

 

[Cheepek]

QUAD is Anglo-Saxon traditional DIVIDE AND RULE.

Using India, Japan, Aussie as cannon fodder. Will US fight for India? NO!

US will not fight for India, US will fight for US.

 

[SpaceMan18]

MORAL OF THE STORY IS

QUAD isn't comparable to NATO since the U.S is using India along with it's actual allies aka Japan and Australia to go against the rising Chinese influence.

1: The U.S doesn't want to see India grow , the last thing it wants is a another strong force in the region
2: India dipped Russia for the U.S which pretty much ruined their whole relationship with the Russians
3: CCP is rising quick and using it's economy and military to threaten Taiwan and control the South China Sea

India isn't a superpower it's a regional power , however it's being used by America to control Chinese influence nothing much.

I laugh every time when I see an Indian thinking America is supporting them , it's almost like they forgot that the CIA killed their space scientists

 

[vi-va]

MORAL OF THE STORY IS

QUAD isn't comparable to NATO since the U.S is using India along with it's actual allies aka Japan and Australia to go against the rising Chinese influence.

1: The U.S doesn't want to see India grow , the last thing it wants is a another strong force in the region
2: India dipped Russia for the U.S which pretty much ruined their whole relationship with the Russians
3: CCP is rising quick and using it's economy and military to threaten Taiwan and control the South China Sea

India isn't a superpower it's a regional power , however it's being used by America to control Chinese influence nothing much.

I laugh every time when I see an Indian thinking America is supporting them , it's almost like they forgot that the CIA killed their space scientists

This is quite a game, politics. There are no permanent enemies, and no permanent friends, only permanent interests.

Just think about it, what if India rise to the height of China that India can dominate South Asia and Indian Ocean, is it truly in US and West interest?

Like I said, one China is a whole hell of US dominance, two China is nightmare.

Once India rise:

1. Will India act like puppet of U.S. if India herself is super power? Of course not.
2. Will India be assertive and even aggressive in South Asia, and Indian Ocean, of course. India is doing it right now even India is just regional power.
3. Will India like other power interfere India herself internal affair? Of course not.
4. Will India accept other great power project power in South Asia, and Indian Ocean? Of course not.

US is super power:

1. Did US dominate North America as well as South America? Yes.
2. Did US interfere other countries internal affairs? Yes.
3. Did US fight back any other great power who want to project power in North America and South America? Yes.
4. Did US tolerate other power rise in her backyard? No.

Super power pursue national interest, especially influence and security, exclusively.

The answer is clear:

1. US will try to use India as cannon fodder
2. US won't fight for India
3. US won't help India rise.

 

[peagle]

South Korea:

1. South Korea major threat and interest is North Korea. While the last thing South Korea want to do is threatening China core interest.
2. If South Korea did so, then simple, China will arm North Korea with second hand weapons. South Korea knew very well that confrontation with China is the worst option.

Japan

1. Japan is smart and foxy. Japan will keep using US resource, technology, market, while try to get more independence.
2. Japan lost WW2, a huge lesson to be remembered for 1000 years, conquered by US, humiliated, bombed by nukes.
3. Japan love US sincerely? God damn no.
4. US truly trust Japan? God damn no.
5. US does not tolerate Japan independence. That's the cruel reality. A lap dog is what US needed.

Aussie:

1. Aussie only 25 millions population. 12% of Pakistan, 1.7% of China population. What can Aussie do against China? Want to be bombed or conquered? Suicidal.
2. Don't forget China is Aussie biggest customer. More the second and third biggest customers combined.

India:

1. India economy is slowing down, even before pandemic. Modi can keep thumping 55" inch chest(smaller than 2014), but he must spend resource on economy, not war.
2. Modi was checkmated in Aksai Chin, tens of thousands soldiers have to be forward deployed, with a fragile supply lane. A war with China, even medium scale skirmish will make Modi's be sleepless.
3. The reality is India is facing two damn front war. The last thing India want. The best thing for Pakistan.
4. US push India to the frontline, frankly speaking, using India as cannon fodder against both China and Pakistan. US and UK are good at it, stir the milky water, making 3 nuclear powers confront on land dispute. While India will be exhausted and used as proxy.
5. I bet Modi has finally realized that US won't help India. What a fool.

US:

1. The last thing US want is India becoming another China. US would rather use India as cannon fodder.
2. US is in big trouble.
   1. Demographically and economically.
   2. Financially crisis, much worse than 2008.
   3. Pandemic will last another several month.
   4. US FED has printed trillions of dollars, debt is 21 trillions
3. US is divided, more and more like India.
4. US defense budget is high, there is no room to increase. But China is steadily increasing defense budget.
5. More importantly, US had an edge on pioneer defense technology, while China has catching up.
6. The geography favor China in West Pacific. In Cold War, there are numerous air base in West Europe. While in West Pacific, Japan, Japan, Japan.
7. The first island chain is fragile. only several air base can be used which are all targeted by China Rocket Force, thousands of missiles. Especially DF-17, Hypersonic Glide Vehicle

Long term:

1. Soviet lost Cold War. The GDP of Warsaw Pact is much smaller than NATO + Korea + Japan + Canada. Soviet facing 2-3 front war, West Europe, North East Pacific, Caucasia, Arctic Ocean.
2. China focus on West Pacific, which means US can only leverage the military force of Japan + Aussie.
3. China GNP in PPP term is much bigger than US, GNP in nominal term will surpass US in 2026 or so.
4. China long term GNP will be 2X of US, or even bigger.

International Environment:

1. No countries want Cold War, Japan doesn't, Aussie doesn't, Korea doesn't, maybe except US.
2. Soviet has not much relationship with US allies. China has more trade and commercial relationship with US allies than US itself.
3. China is the biggest single market and biggest trade partners of most countries in the world.
4. China retail market is over 6 trillions, bigger then US, and increasing much faster then US.
5. China enjoyed much better neighborhood relationship and has very close ties with all neighbors, especially Russia, Central Asia, South East Asia.

Conclusion:

1. There is no way US can isolate China.
2. The US allies actually using hedging tactic between China and US.
3. China has back safeguarded, mainly focus on one side which is West Pacific.
4. China has much greater potential to dominate West Pacific, while US has reach it's peak.
5. The geopolitics is in China favor.
6. US empire is declining, inner issues is much bigger then outer challenges.
7. US financial situation is deteriorating.

The balance of power is shifting quickly. US has already withdraw to Guam and Aussie. The first island chain is fragile, ROI is bad.

Please let me know your thought.

You pretty much covered it,
now, either people will find stupid faults, or they will accept the reality in front of them, nicely explained.