PTI Increased Exports By $8.86 billion

[HerbertPervert]

Pakistan Exports of Goods & Services

2008: $21.06 billion
2009: $20.84 billion
2010: $23.95 billion
2011: $29.83 billion
2012: $27.82 billion
2013: $30.7 billion
2014: $29.92 billion
2015: $28.69 billion
2016: $27.4 billion
2017: $27.89 billion
2018: $30.56 billion
2019: $30.14 billion
2020: $27.94 billion
2021: $31.55 billion
2022: $39.42 billion

World Bank Open Data

Free and open access to global development data

data.worldbank.org

Some possible explanations include the TERF loans PTI had given to manufacturers to expand or build new factories to increase production. Musharraf did something similar before he left by 2008, so PPP was able to ride that increase in exports for their period.

It's important to note PTI took over 2018, witnessed COVID, and did not complete their five year term.

One thing is clear though. PMLN and exports should not be mentioned in the same breath.

@ziaulislam @epebble @PakFactor
@Jango

 

[Maula Jatt]

On the back of
Pakistan’s budget deficit has skyrocketed to Rs5.3 trillion (7.9 percent of the GDP) during previous fiscal year mainly due to the massive subsidy announced by the previous government of PTI on oil products and electricity.
https://www.nation.com.pk/20-Aug-20...kets-to-rs5-3-trillion-in-fiscal-year-2021-22
Pakistan's current account deficit rises to 4-year high of $17.4 bn in FY22
https://www.business-standard.com/a...r-high-of-17-4-bn-in-fy22-122072801029_1.html
The Country's trade deficit during FY2021-22 estimated at $48.355 billion.

Whopping $48.38bn trade deficit recorded during FY22 - Pakistan Observer

According to the updated data of the PBS, the trade deficit clocked in at whopping $48.38 billion compared to last year's $31 billion.

pakobserver.net

Whopping $48.38bn trade deficit recorded during FY22​

Growth while running huge deficits is a sure-fire recipe for disaster. You may get 1-2 years of growth, but down the line, it comes back to bite you on the behind
@hydrabadi_arab

Solid, clean 4-5% growth is better than deficit laden 6-7% growth

 

[PakFactor]

Pakistan Exports of Goods & Services

2008: $21.06 billion
2009: $20.84 billion
2010: $23.95 billion
2011: $29.83 billion
2012: $27.82 billion
2013: $30.7 billion
2014: $29.92 billion
2015: $28.69 billion
2016: $27.4 billion
2017: $27.89 billion
2018: $30.56 billion
2019: $30.14 billion
2020: $27.94 billion
2021: $31.55 billion
2022: $39.42 billion

World Bank Open Data

Free and open access to global development data

data.worldbank.org

Some possible explanations include the TERF loans PTI had given to manufacturers to expand or build new factories to increase production. Musharraf did something similar before he left by 2008, so PPP was able to ride that increase in exports for their period.

It's important to note PTI took over 2018, witnessed COVID, and did not complete their five year term.

One thing is clear though. PMLN and exports should not be mentioned in the same breath.

@ziaulislam @epebble @PakFactor
@Jango

I agree often times policy of a previous administration takes 2-3 years to reflect properly. In no way past N and PPP can take credit.

 

[HerbertPervert]

On the back of
Pakistan’s budget deficit has skyrocketed to Rs5.3 trillion (7.9 percent of the GDP) during previous fiscal year mainly due to the massive subsidy announced by the previous government of PTI on oil products and electricity.
https://www.nation.com.pk/20-Aug-20...kets-to-rs5-3-trillion-in-fiscal-year-2021-22
Pakistan's current account deficit rises to 4-year high of $17.4 bn in FY22
https://www.business-standard.com/a...r-high-of-17-4-bn-in-fy22-122072801029_1.html
The Country's trade deficit during FY2021-22 estimated at $48.355 billion.

Whopping $48.38bn trade deficit recorded during FY22 - Pakistan Observer

According to the updated data of the PBS, the trade deficit clocked in at whopping $48.38 billion compared to last year's $31 billion.

pakobserver.net

Whopping $48.38bn trade deficit recorded during FY22​

Growth while running huge deficits is a sure-fire recipe for disaster. You may get 1-2 years of growth, but down the line, it comes back to bite you on the behind
@hydrabadi_arab

Solid, clean 4-5% growth is better than deficit laden 6-7% growth

Although both had high deficits, PTI increased the exports significantly to historically high levels while PMLN decreased the exports.

PTI increased imports, but not without improving productivity and they did not waste foreign exchange reserves artificially overvaluing the PKR. Whereas PMLN wasted foreign exchange reserves to overvalue the PKR, increase imports, and borrowed more to finance useless infrastructure projects.

I do agree that growth should have been throttled to 4% to avoid CAD crisis. That shift was the result of Hafeez Shaikh being removed and Shaukat Tarin taking over. In fact, some PTI youth had warned Imran Khan this would happen.

I agree often times policy of a previous administration takes 2-3 years to reflect properly. In no way past N and PPP can take credit.

Which begs the question, if PTI had its full term to increase exports, could Pakistan have added another $10 billion and closed in on Bangladesh? There could also have been a snowballing effect. If PTI had another term, it would not be impossible to achieve $65+ billion in exports. Improving documentation, reducing cash transactions with digitization, tax collection could improve. With $40 billion in remittances, the country would confidently move away from the IMF.

 

[Maula Jatt]

Although both had high deficits, PTI increased the exports significantly to historically high levels while PMLN decreased the exports.

PTI increased imports, but not without improving productivity and they did not waste foreign exchange reserves artificially overvaluing the PKR. Whereas PMLN wasted foreign exchange reserves to overvalue the PKR, increase imports, and borrowed more to finance useless infrastructure projects.

But PTI's economic policy was problematic too, deficit laden export growth is not good nor is artificially overvalued Pkr consumption led growth

I do agree that growth should have been throttled to 4% to avoid CAD crisis. That shift was the result of Hafeez Shaikh being removed and Shaukat Tarin taking over. In fact, some PTI youth had warned Imran Khan this would happen.

100% this - I rest my case
This is EXACTLY what I want Pakistan to do- clean 4-5% growth for 3-5 years, Max 10 years
till our agriculture, mining, IT sector catches up (to off-balance deficits), train our workforce so they can send remittances, sign labor agreements
Coal, hydel, solar projects to cut down energy costs (in fact, energy generation costs are already slowly decreasing)

Sept CA deficit shrinks to stand at $8m

KARACHI: The country’s current account deficit declined to $8.0 million in September 2023 as compared to the current account deficit of $360 million in the same month in 2022 The country’s current account deficit was $164 million in August 2023. During the first three months of current fiscal...

pdf.defence.pk

Which begs the question, if PTI had its full term to increase exports, could Pakistan have added another $10 billion and closed in on Bangladesh? There could also have been a snowballing effect. If PTI had another term, it would not be impossible to achieve $65+ billion in exports and with $40 billion in remittances, the country would confidently move away from the IMF.

 

[HerbertPervert]

View attachment 963821


But PTI's economic policy was problematic too, deficit laden export growth is not good nor is artificially overvalued Pkr consumption led growth

100% this - I rest my case
This is EXACTLY what I want Pakistan to do- clean 5% growth for 5-10 years

It's much harder for you to make more money than it is to spend less. Exports are difficult to increase because they depend on external parties that you have no control over.

Furthermore, the main sectors Pakistan exports in is textiles and agriculture which is saturated with competition.

The manufacturing of the goods for exports also depends on raw materials being imported. To increase exports, you will have to increase imports until you can locally produce the raw material or replace with local alternatives.

Also, the idea is not to get stuck on textile sector, but invest in education and creating new sectors to diversify export mix.

 

[Maula Jatt]

It's much harder for you to make more money than it is to spend less. Exports are difficult to increase because they depend on external parties that you have no control over.

when life gives you lemon make lemonade
Let's focus on areas that require minimum imports
IT requires little to no import just a trained workforce, same with agriculture, mining a bit more but still manageable, training our people, signing labor agreements with developed countries so we earn more remittances, even textile is not that bad depending on how we do it, if its value added or not
because we produce our own cotton- that takes out cotton imports, machinery you have to import, cheap electricity which in the short term you can't provide

At this point in time it's not possible for us to be a manufacturing focused export oriented economy - for that we need to invest in
A- coal, hydel, solar energy (fixing our energy sector)
B- steel producation
C- petrochemical
D- Ml-1 freight rail line

Furthermore, the main sectors Pakistan exports in is textiles and agriculture which is saturated with competition.

The manufacturing of the goods for exports also depends on raw materials being imported. To increase exports, you will have to increase imports until you can locally produce the raw material or replace with local alternatives.

Also, the idea is not to get stuck on textile sector, but invest in education and creating new sectors to diversify export mix.

 

[blain2]

On the back of
Pakistan’s budget deficit has skyrocketed to Rs5.3 trillion (7.9 percent of the GDP) during previous fiscal year mainly due to the massive subsidy announced by the previous government of PTI on oil products and electricity.
https://www.nation.com.pk/20-Aug-20...kets-to-rs5-3-trillion-in-fiscal-year-2021-22
Pakistan's current account deficit rises to 4-year high of $17.4 bn in FY22
https://www.business-standard.com/a...r-high-of-17-4-bn-in-fy22-122072801029_1.html
The Country's trade deficit during FY2021-22 estimated at $48.355 billion.

Whopping $48.38bn trade deficit recorded during FY22 - Pakistan Observer

According to the updated data of the PBS, the trade deficit clocked in at whopping $48.38 billion compared to last year's $31 billion.

pakobserver.net

Whopping $48.38bn trade deficit recorded during FY22​

Growth while running huge deficits is a sure-fire recipe for disaster. You may get 1-2 years of growth, but down the line, it comes back to bite you on the behind
@hydrabadi_arab

Solid, clean 4-5% growth is better than deficit laden 6-7% growth

We have to cut our expenses...reduce imports and increase tax collection. That is the only option. Consumer goods being imported need to be kicked to the curb, focus should only be on essential imports such as POL, machinery etc. that directly contribute to the manufacturing industry's output.

 

[Bilal.]

We have to cut our expenses...reduce imports and increase tax collection. That is the only option. Consumer goods being imported need to be kicked to the curb, focus should only be on essential imports such as POL, machinery etc.

Just
Growing our own edible oil= $4-5 billion
Growing enough cotton = $1-1.5 billion
Growing our own pulses = $0.5-1 billion

Hum aik hud haram qaum hien.

 

[HerbertPervert]

Just
Growing our own edible oil= $4-5 billion
Growing enough cotton = $1-1.5 billion
Growing our own pulses = $0.5-1 billion

Hum aik hud haram qaum hien.

If Balochistan could be converted from wasteland to fertile land with water diverted from desalination plant, it could become the bread basket and Baloch could be employed in significant numbers to eradicate militancy and smuggling.

I'm surprised that despite having one of the largest cattle population, Pakistan hardly exports any beef to China which is the largest market. KKH should enable transit of live animals to China and Central Asia. Issues impeding this is cattle herders instead of large farms, so animals aren't vaccinated or kept healthy. Also, breed quality maybe poor. If these issues are resolved, Pakistan can become major meat & dairy exporter.

There was a PTI program to produce edible oils locally. It was olive tree plantations. Not sure what happened. As for cotton, local production used to be much higher and attempts were made to restore.

There has been 20 years of negligence since Musharraf left and until PTI. Before that, the 1990's was a lost decade too. PPP and PMLN only know how to borrow and waste money. Lots of simple policy decisions and enforcement could have be made and Pakistan could look very different.

 

[ziaulislam]

On the back of
Pakistan’s budget deficit has skyrocketed to Rs5.3 trillion (7.9 percent of the GDP) during previous fiscal year mainly due to the massive subsidy announced by the previous government of PTI on oil products and electricity.
https://www.nation.com.pk/20-Aug-20...kets-to-rs5-3-trillion-in-fiscal-year-2021-22
Pakistan's current account deficit rises to 4-year high of $17.4 bn in FY22
https://www.business-standard.com/a...r-high-of-17-4-bn-in-fy22-122072801029_1.html
The Country's trade deficit during FY2021-22 estimated at $48.355 billion.

Whopping $48.38bn trade deficit recorded during FY22 - Pakistan Observer

According to the updated data of the PBS, the trade deficit clocked in at whopping $48.38 billion compared to last year's $31 billion.

pakobserver.net

Whopping $48.38bn trade deficit recorded during FY22​

Growth while running huge deficits is a sure-fire recipe for disaster. You may get 1-2 years of growth, but down the line, it comes back to bite you on the behind
@hydrabadi_arab

Solid, clean 4-5% growth is better than deficit laden 6-7% growth

Selective figures.
First who even cares about trade deficits

What matter is current account deficit?

Are you even aware;
1- what were the global oil prices when deficit went up
2-how many billion dollars of COVID vaccine had to be imported
3- what was the current account deficit for 2022
4- what was pakistan S&P Fitch outlook/rating
5- how much subsidy was provided to oil and gas(to answer your question "largely due to ...")
6- How much of th deficit was due to high interest rates driven by global interest rates hikes

You are educated person, so I will ask you to look it up yourself

 

[Maula Jatt]

Selective figures.
First who even cares about trade deficits

What matter is current account deficit?

Are you even aware;
1- what were the global oil prices when deficit went up

umh... you have to work with that buddy, not just you the world has to work with that, major economies throughout the world have to deal with that
It's part of the job, you can't use it as an excuse- because oil prices fluctuates all the time

2-how many billion dollars of COVID vaccine had to be imported

$2 Billion

3- what was the current account deficit for 2022

"The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) had reported a staggering current account deficit (CAD) of $17.48 billion in fiscal year 2022."
4-year high, previous record was Pmln's

4- what was pakistan S&P Fitch outlook/rating

https://www.fitchratings.com/entity/pakistan-94558490#ratings
If I am reading this correctly, it was B- for year 2022
B in 2016, 17, 15 - By your metric Dar was doing a great job

5- how much subsidy was provided to oil and gas(to answer your question "largely due to ...")

"Overall, the government had given a massive subsidy of Rs1.5 trillion in the previous fiscal year."
"budget deficit was Rs5.3 trillion"
"The government of Pakistan had set the budget deficit target at Rs3.4 trillion"
put 2 and 2 together

6- How much of th deficit was due to high interest rates driven by global interest rates hikes

again its part of the job- every government has some global crisis to work through
You can't use it as an excuse to balloon up deficits, good administrations see the crisis and act accordingly so they don't experience issues down the line

You can use these factors as an excuse for low growth, that's fair but you can't use them as an excuse to run huge difficult to manage deficits

You are educated person, so I will ask you to look it up yourself

 

[blain2]

Just
Growing our own edible oil= $4-5 billion
Growing enough cotton = $1-1.5 billion
Growing our own pulses = $0.5-1 billion

Hum aik hud haram qaum hien.

I blame our politicians a lot for this situation. The reality is that if they want to fix the economy they can, but they won't get re-elected. There in lies the rub.

You would need to curb imports of non-essentials similar to what SS did but it did not last due to the hue and cry about cat food. But if one were to fix the economy on war footing, our awaam has to give up a lot. Balance the payments, increase own exports, increase tax revenues and have hard limits on not having a trade deficit greater than 5% between our exim.

 

[Bilal.]

I blame our politicians a lot for this situation. The reality is that if they want to fix the economy they can, but they won't get re-elected. There in lies the rub.

You would need to curb imports of non-essentials similar to what SS did but it did not last due to the hue and cry about cat food. But if one were to fix the economy on war footing, our awaam has to give up a lot. Balance the payments, increase own exports, increase tax revenues and have hard limits on not having a trade deficit greater than 5% between our exim.

He didn’t curb non essentials only. Those measures are not sustainable. The factories were closed because raw materials were stopped. The only sustainable way is to either produce things locally (and competitively) or export enough to cover the needs.

Just look at our import breakdown. The major portions ARE essential. Our biggest import are petroleum/lng, edible oil, food including pulses, machinery and raw materials. That’s why every time our growth picks up we start running into current account deficit.

All those cat foods and chocolates are minuscule portion of it. Yes stop them but that will only be symbolic.

We need real solutions not just sloganeering and drama.

 

[Big_bud]

Although I am a supporter of PTI and Khan's policies were generally good, however isolated figures of a bit of an increase in exports do not mean much. We have to see how much loans PTI took during this time, how much of those loans were used to repay previous debt/debt servicing. How much of those loans were used, where they were used and what result did those expenditures yield? However, at the same time, results take time and the lumber one showed their true loyalties before that.