Let's have some realistic discussion about PTI election winning chances. Leaving emotions aside. I have thought alot, weighed different options and made calculations.I'm going to present my analysis.
The internal rift in PTI is not going to patch up soon. It will cause them some serious damage in elections Old Vs New entrants rifts is still a issue in PTI and this enmity will result in not helping each other whole heartdly in wooing voters during election campaigns.
PTI old guards suffer defeat - thenews.com.pk
Every constituency needs a good candidate which can give a tough fight and need a proper team of PTI to support PTI candidate which do a proper homework and door to door campagin.
It happened in 2012 by elections where Support team of PTI in some did a very good job but the candidate was weak and didn't get many votes.
Another issue is PTI is still weak at rural level. This is arena of PML-Q. Remember how they managed to win 40-50 NA seats in 2008 despite their very low popularity?
PTI best chance of winning NA seats is from KPK and Punjab. Sindh is out of question and balochistan is too volatile to predict as PPP, JUI-F and PML-Q already has strong support their and PML-N has a strong candidate of Balochistan some retired Lt.General Baloch who remaind a Core commander of Army corps stationed in Quetta.
PML-N has power, money and public support up to some extent and electables that would help them in winning large no.of seats on National level.
At best i would say PTI would win 5-15 seats of NA in election and that's based on ground realities of constituency politics. Need your hard hitting analysis too
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