Private production line for LCA manufacturing: Hindustan Aeronautics

[Avaraniya]

Its not HAL which creates the demand, its the IAF.

Have anybody body heard of the concept of Demand and Supply ?

If there really was such a Huge demand for LCA, a thousand industries would have lined up to produce it and supply it. HAL is no different.

Unlike Automobiles, which has a million customers, Fighter jets have ONLY ONE CUSTOMER.

And if the ONLY Customer is not too keen on the aircraft, NO is going to invest money and produce it. Not unless the whole thing is guaranteed by the MoD and GoI.

Sorry for my noob questions @PARIKRAMA
But then, why isn't MOD intervening and forcing HAL ?
Doesn't MOD enjoy the final word on these matters ?
Don't they already realise what you have said with all the experts guiding them.

Probably because the MOD is not stupid.

HAL management has to worry about its survival first. And for that ANY production plan has to first make BUSINESS SENSE.



Give an order to produce a 1000 LCA and you will find HAL Eager and all Happy to do it.

 

[Maddd]

Yes, but no body is going to invest Hundreds of Millions of $ based on Parrikar's ambition of remaining the RM.

They will if they have the incentive, just like L&T proposed to setup a production line, He is going to be the DM for next 2.5 years and the next 5 years after that as well assuming NDA is elected.

What if parrikar is to suddenly die in an accident ?

What if a Astroid crashed on the planet and destroyed all civilization. These What ifs are irrelevant...

 

[GuardianRED]

Its not HAL which creates the demand, its the IAF.

Have anybody body heard of the concept of Demand and Supply ?

If there really was such a Huge demand for LCA, a thousand industries would have lined up to produce it and supply it. HAL is no different.

Unlike Automobiles, which has a million customers, Fighter jets have ONLY ONE CUSTOMER.

And if the ONLY Customer is not too keen on the aircraft, NO is going to invest money and produce it. Not unless the whole thing is guaranteed by the MoD and GoI.

???? I think you have drunk to much of coffee.

First the IAF hasn't rejected, and has asked improvements on the basic design , it started with them not freezing the requirements. Second, HAL is the builder/integrator contractor, ie. they only BUILT the aircrafts, THEY had no hand in designing the aircraft, its has and always been ADA ( if they had HAL from the beginning , this story will be different)
If you want to points fingers there is plenty of them around( believe me im no fan of HAL, but to single them out is no fun either)

U think that HAL is producing very thing on the LCA??? Pal, u need to do some research. there are hundreds of MSMEs, supporting HALs not just on the LCA, but other projects too.

Initial No. of 100 is good, as @Nilgiri , its possible in tranche, Heck the Su30 initially order was for 50 (in 1996) only in 2000 did the new agreement of ToT and 140 was order. Every new tranche , new improvement based once the frame is in the field

Another HECK, there is a article on the LCA thread saying by March April 2017 , A Total of Six frames should be with the Flying Daggers (including the first 2)

 

[Tshering22]

Yes, we want a third (assembly) line to be run by the private sector. In fact we want the private players to come in now and produce LCA or light combat helicopter (LCH) as we don’t want to make more investments into this space. As of now, our LCA project is doing well and the government has already placed orders for 100 LCA. We have also started a series of productions.

A welcome move.

Guess things are changing in HAL.

IAF can believe whatever it wants, its MOD which arm twisted IAF to get more LCA's, as long as Parrikar stays at the helm, this arm twsting will continue..

IAF is also known for throwing tantrums like a teen on her first periods.

It is known to deliberately deny good weapons in the past for foreign imports because senior officers get a nice paycheck from contractors.

Shoving good indigenous products which can be enhanced with usage and developing a domestic sophisticated ecosystem is the need of the hour.

Parrikar is doing the right thing.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

In short, LCA is being killed by the PSUs as always.

If L&T comes into play, you can be sure that HAL will be hard put to match it. L&T does not monkey around and is willing to throw money to attract the expertise and talent required to get the LCA upto the level it is required for induction into IAF seriously.

I think, we might find LCA going to L&T along with TCS .... lets see how things work out.

Now see here..
You took the other name i tend to avoid... now in some months, i have to showcase this SS and say hellfire said it long back !!!

Sorry for my noob questions @PARIKRAMA
But then, why isn't MOD intervening and forcing HAL ?
Doesn't MOD enjoy the final word on these matters ?
Don't they already realise what you have said with all the experts guiding them.

They did intervene my friend.. The New HAL chairman has a clear mandate.. Its now far more regular reviews and close monitoring than earlier times.. the focus is on LCA surely. But then again there is a limitation.. Raju cant change things overnight with Parrikar.. They both need time and efforts to change the culture of a PSU which works in a strange way and adheres more to Indian Standard Time issues

 

[Maddd]

IAF is also known for throwing tantrums like a teen on her first periods.

It is known to deliberately deny good weapons in the past for foreign imports because senior officers get a nice paycheck from contractors.

Shoving good indigenous products which can be enhanced with usage and developing a domestic sophisticated ecosystem is the need of the hour.

Parrikar is doing the right thing.

Unfortunatly you are right, Parrikar has even openly made snide remarks in front of IAF chief once saying IAF expected Star Wars level equipment from local producers.. He has been putting them to task, The more he stays as DM the better it is....

 

[Hellfire]

Now see here..
You took the other name i tend to avoid... now in some months, i have to showcase this SS and say hellfire said it long back !!!

You left me in this mode

 

[punit]

Sorry for my noob questions @PARIKRAMA
But then, why isn't MOD intervening and forcing HAL ?
Doesn't MOD enjoy the final word on these matters ?
Don't they already realise what you have said with all the experts guiding them.

bureaucrats !! they lick each other very well.

 

[Avaraniya]

???? I think you have drunk to much of coffee.

First the IAF hasn't rejected, and has asked improvements on the basic design , it started with them not freezing the requirements. Second, HAL is the builder/integrator contractor, ie. they only BUILT the aircrafts, THEY had no hand in designing the aircraft, its has and always been ADA ( if they had HAL from the beginning , this story will be different)
If you want to points fingers there is plenty of them around( believe me im no fan of HAL, but to single them out is no fun either)

U think that HAL is producing very thing on the LCA??? Pal, u need to do some research. there are hundreds of MSMEs, supporting HALs not just on the LCA, but other projects too.

Initial No. of 100 is good, as @Nilgiri , its possible in tranche, Heck the Su30 initially order was for 50 (in 1996) only in 2000 did the new agreement of ToT and 140 was order. Every new tranche , new improvement based once the frame is in the field

Another HECK, there is a article on the LCA thread saying by March April 2017 , A Total of Six frames should be with the Flying Daggers (including the first 2)

IAF HAD rejected the LCA, they only agreed reluctantly when LCA-MK1-A configuration was agreed upon. This is a well known fact.

second, I never claimed HAL designed the aricraft. That is IRRELEVANT to the discussion.

Third, stating facts is not pointing fingers. Its time you figured that out.

Fourth, HAL has a policy of MINIMAL outsourcing and its primary focus is to keep all the jobs inside HAL. In any case, I never claimed HAL produces everything on the LCA. That again is IRRELEVANT to this discussion.

Fifth, Its ridiculous to compare the Su-30MKi order number with LCA. Su-30 was an incredible aircraft which the IAF got cheap due to the economic troubles of the erstwhile USSR. LCA is nowhere in that league.

Finally, Take a deep breath and read this post calmly. Stop worrying about my coffee habits. Don't even pretend that its your concern.

They will if they have the incentive, just like L&T proposed to setup a production line, He is going to be the DM for next 2.5 years and the next 5 years after that as well assuming NDA is elected.

What if a Astroid crashed on the planet and destroyed all civilization. These What ifs are irrelevant...

There is a whole branch of subject that study the "What ifs". Its called RISK MANAGEMENT.

Entire Project management is about "what ifs".

The First and last thing ANY serious investor does is ask "What Ifs".

Do you know why Insurance Industry is a Multiple TRILLION $ Industry ? its because their ONLY job is to ask "What ifs".

 

[Abingdonboy]

https://defence.pk/threads/hal-tejas-updates-news-discussions-thread-2.351401/page-130#post-8647599

Ya news got posted there..

And about my views
View attachment 338492

https://defence.pk/threads/hal-tejas-updates-news-discussions-thread-2.351401/page-130#post-8647684


View attachment 338493
https://defence.pk/threads/hal-tejas-updates-news-discussions-thread-2.351401/page-130#post-8647873

View attachment 338485
https://defence.pk/threads/dassault...ussions-thread-2.230070/page-384#post-8731038


I am openly saying, soon you will hear the timelines are shifted for TejasMk1A. Its not gonna be ready by 2018 nor you will see production rate picking in next 3-4 years the way its intended. Thats the grave news i already have.
MOD people are obviously pissed and if and a big IF another LWF comes to IAF hands, then LCA itself will die down as a project bcz

1. Neither HAL is in a position to give a proper bird as of now
2. Nor in proper numbers
3. support and maintenance comes much later
4. Any new bird or a matured bird platform will straight away make IAF prefer them only

DM MP will soon take a review in next couple of months.. its going to be a banging session . In front of media it will be good sweet words and a brave face but reality will bite from inside. Need stringent course correction.

if L&T comes then it wont be 8 jets third line rather they would also set up easily 16+/year so combined line limit will be 32 but i can assure you it will be L&T folks producing 16 completely owing to penalties associated with the production rate time schedule and HAL producing around 50% of its 16/year line - combined it will be 24-26 / year max..

My reading of this article is very different bro, here HAL is openly stating they aren't interested in further capital expedentiture to create a third production line and are actively requesting a private player take on this effort so there can be 24 LCA produced per annum.

Fingers crossed it is L&T that bags this project, I have no doubt they would be highly successful and shift Indian industry overnight.

If there is one GoI and PM that can make this happen it is the current one.


This is actually very pleasing news and in line with what we have discussed and what HAL has been saying for a while. Already many LCA LRUs are produced by the private sector the logical next step is full scale outsourcing.

Yes, its all quite dreamy.

With a production of 25 LCA per year, they will churn out 100 LCA's in 4 years.

What happens after that ? Fire all the employees and shut down the plant ?

or is the IAF going to issue new orders for 200 more LCA than can keep the plant running for the next 8 years ?

There is a far greater demand for the LCA*beyond just 120 units, once the LCA is in service the IAF will place further orders, just look at how they have placed a series of orders for the MKI,originally just 50 units were ordered but today there are more than 300 in service/on order. It is abundetly clear to everyone involved that the IAF's demand for a LWF exceeds even 250 units. At 16/year it would take HAL more than 15 years to to complete deliveries. As stated in the article HAL see the need to create a capacity for 24/year requiring a third production line.

Now these are orders just for the IAF, the IN is also looking to procure 2-3 SQNs themselves and one cannot rule out export orders.

*(MK-1A and Mk.2)

 

[GuardianRED]

IAF HAD rejected the LCA, they only agreed reluctantly when LCA-MK1-A configuration was agreed upon. This is a well known fact.

second, I never claimed HAL designed the aricraft. That is IRRELEVANT to the discussion.

Third, stating facts is not pointing fingers. Its time you figured that out.

Fourth, HAL has a policy of MINIMAL outsourcing and its primary focus is to keep all the jobs inside HAL. In any case, I never claimed HAL produces everything on the LCA. That again is IRRELEVANT to this discussion.

Fifth, Its ridiculous to compare the Su-30MKi order number with LCA. Su-30 was an incredible aircraft which the IAF got cheap due to the economic troubles of the erstwhile USSR. LCA is nowhere in that league.

Finally, Take a deep breath and read this post calmly. Stop worrying about my coffee habits. Don't even pretend that its your concern.

?? Where has the IAF rejected the LCA?? where is this a FACT??? Don't show me an article where a journo has his/her famous sources stating the same. Officially, im sure may people would like to see this

Mininal Outsourcing???? All Jobs inside the HAL????, u understand what an integrator does??? U do know that the Some of the major components are built by TAML

The Su30 is cheap??? really? , if it was cheap! why buy only 50?? Hence it is relevant to this discussion to why only 100 is in the initial Tranche

 

[Avaraniya]

There is a far greater demand for the LCA*beyond just 120 units, once the LCA is in service the IAF will place further orders, just look at how they have placed a series of orders for the MKI,originally just 50 units were ordered but today there are more than 300 in service/on order. It is abundetly clear to everyone involved that the IAF's demand for a LWF exceeds even 250 units. At 16/year it would take HAL more than 15 years to to complete deliveries. As stated in the article HAL see the need to create a capacity for 24/year requiring a third production line.

Now these are orders just for the IAF, the IN is also looking to procure 2-3 SQNs themselves and one cannot rule out export orders.

*(MK-1A and Mk.2)

What you claim is Irrelevant.

Let IAF demonstrate that demand in WRITING by issuing a Contract OR by underwriting the requirement for LCA and you will see companies lining up to produce them.

Its as simple as that.

I have already explain the futility in comparing the Su-30MKI with the LCA. They are NOTHING alike and only serves to create a False equivalence and is hence a Logical fallacy.

This will become "abundantly clear" for everybody else once IAF makes it "abundantly clear" in WRITING. Not everybody is a IAF mind reader like you, nor can they predict the future like you seem to claim.



Let me reiterate, ......... THERE IS NO NEED for a 100 page debate.


Let IAF provide its intention to procure 300 LCA in Writing, the whole thing can be settled in ONE day. How about it ?

 

[PARIKRAMA]

My reading of this article is very different bro, here HAL is openly stating they aren't interested in further capital expedentiture to create a third production line and are actively requesting a private player take on this effort so there can be 24 LCA produced per annum.

Fingers crossed it is L&T that bags this project, I have no doubt they would be highly successful and shift Indian industry overnight.

If there is one GoI and PM that can make this happen it is the current one.


This is actually very pleasing news and in line with what we have discussed and what HAL has been saying for a while. Already many LCA LRUs are produced by the private sector the logical next step is full scale outsourcing.

Bro, dont go by what HAL says in public. For them its a pure turf war.

If and if MOD approves a 300 jet order with 160 for L&T and 140 for HAL, you will see that surely with some mutual number finally acceptable to HAL and L&T.

But as of now HAL will never say that bcz the execution of first 100 odd jets order itself is a big challenge for them. In fact the ecosystem supporting LCA project has done a fabulous job over last 8-9 months, You will hear it from DM MP himself soon. Indian MIC and MSMEs have actually delivered things in a good time bound manner and has invested enough to increase the productivity as per the planned schedule. Thats why there is a growing resentment reaching MOD's ears and eyes.

The present orders even though L&T is roped in , we all know repeat orders will be there but L&T wont get in without assurance. Thats basic for any company.. and HAL cant share from existing orders bcz its their basic needs..MOD cant order more unless some are delivered and good words spread post DACT and IAF pilots approval..

So you understand the dilemma..all are interconnected.. but in media all will say with smiling face only

 

[Avaraniya]

?? Where has the IAF rejected the LCA?? where is this a FACT??? Don't show me an article where a journo has his/her famous sources stating the same. Officially, im sure may people would like to see this

Mininal Outsourcing???? All Jobs inside the HAL????, u understand what an integrator does??? U do know that the Some of the major components are built by TAML

The Su30 is cheap??? really? , if it was cheap! why buy only 50?? Hence it is relevant to this discussion to why only 100 is in the initial Tranche

Boeing is an Integrator. HAL IS NOT an integrator, its a soviet model PSU manufacturer. First get a grasp on that.

So far there is no evidence of the IAF lining up to buy the LCA either. In fact, if any of the Air Chiefs past comments are anything to go by, Any and All private parties should steer clear of this project.


I am not interested in debating a Logical fallacy that draws upon a false equivalence between Su-30MKi and the LCA. Its a Strawman at best.

 

[Maddd]

There is a whole branch of subject that study the "What ifs". Its called RISK MANAGEMENT.
Entire Project management is about "what ifs".
The First and last thing ANY serious investor does is ask "What Ifs".
Do you know why Insurance Industry is a Multiple TRILLION $ Industry ? its because their ONLY job is to ask "What ifs".

Since when did Project Management include predicting somebodies Death