Let me share my interpretation here.
1. There is a confirmed order for 200 planes at the minimum.
2. Now the question is how it will be shared between L&T and HAL.
scenario 1. HAL bags all 100 first and in first two years HAL delivers 16 planes (knowing them it will be 10). And GOI asks L&T to set up a second assembly line. Knowing L&T they set up the assembly line in 1 year or so. Having bagged the order for another 100 plane (I assume it will be in batches like 50 first and 50 later, knowing GOI).
So from the third year we have total of 32 planes. 24 from HAL and 8 from L&T. That's 15 years to deliver total 200 planes.
That's a decent timeline.
Scenario 2-
HAL completely bags 100. Delivers 100 in 15 years and L&T sits idle with an order and not even an assembly line. Now that is 27-28 years in total for 200 planes.
The second scenario is scary. I'm sure there is someone doing some math.
IMHO, both will get committed orders in a gap of few years. My assumption will be 2 yrs to be realistic.
And if my memory serves me right, then I remember HAL has been allocated money for a second production line for them selves and the talk was for a third production line from a private player.
The HAL person has got me confused now. Or I might be wrong about the third assembly line.
@Abingdonboy @hellfire and others.