Primary threat to Pak is from within, not India

[H2O3C4Nitrogen]

The fact is, India's troop levels at the Pakistani border can be justifiably seen as threatening.
A stabilizing deployment would see more Pakistani troops at the Indian border, fewer Indian troops at the Pakistani border, and far more Indian troops at the Chinese border.

Frankly Speaking the Indian Military as an institution never deemed to Challenge the Chinese Military, They know the Fallout having being experienced earlier.The Fact is the US needs Full Pakistani Compliance to achieve its objectives in Afghanistan.Now India can be very much useful to shape the Pakistani compliance acc to US bidding.Positioning troops along Pakistani Border will have the Principal Focus of Pakistani Military towards the obvious threat they pose.At the same time it gives the US a firm Leverage to Bully Pakistan and nudge down its Interests in Afghanistan At the same time allowing the Indians to make the most of this opportunity and the Cold Start further strengthens the Threat Perception Posed by India.

I suspect that the IA is will move divisions accordingly in the long term. It's a slow process. Reduction in incursion attempts across the LoC will certainly help in troop withdrawal.

The incurtions have gretely reduced and the Kashmir Struggle is not supported by Arms anymore , it has evolved into a Political Struggle now.

 

[Bang Galore]

Certainly this is not the whole of my positon - rather it is that Indian have positioned more than one half million soldiers, more than 3000 tanks and hundreds of war planes on the Pakistani border - with regard to cold start, I argued that under this doctrine, the strike formations, their logistics and their their composition is such that the threat is amplified.

Listen, do try to understand, professionals do not look to stated "intentions", they pay more attention to capability - and I think it will be labored case to make that these strike formations do not have capability, in fact under cold start their capability is enhanced - so really as long as these formations are composed and situated and they are, the threat based on capabilities remains

That's an argument that is difficult to refute on the reasoning applied by you i.e. capabilities. The counter to that would be to draw the conclusion that such a positioning will have to continue infinitely because India isn't going anywhere. It also belies the position of many in Pakistan that a solution to this or the other problem will lessen tensions. The capabilities would be still there, won't it? Guess we will just have to live with it then.

The thread does refer to the Primary threat doesn't it? Doesn't say that that is the only threat or that no other threats can conceivably exist, does it? It is all about prioritising.

 

[H2O3C4Nitrogen]

That's an argument that is difficult to refute on the reasoning applied by you i.e. capabilities. The counter to that would be to draw the conclusion that such a positioning will have to continue infinitely because India isn't going anywhere. It also belies the position of many in Pakistan that a solution to this or the other problem will lessen tensions. The capabilities would be still there, won't it? Guess we will just have to live with it then.

The thread does refer to the Primary threat doesn't it? Doesn't say that that is the only threat or that no other threats can conceivably exist, does it? It is all about prioritising.

Based upon your Logic the Chinese have far more Capability, But theres a reason why they are not viewed from that angle.
As long as the Disputes are alive and the Hostile intentions exist , Obviously the Indian Threat earns a greater Priority as compared to the Militants.
The fact that local insurgency is a function of time and it will diminish with time as we saw in case of Sirilankan Tamil Tigers ,But a threat posed by nation with whom you have faught wars in the Past and continue with it on a course of confrontation in the light of Real and Alive Disputes will definitely secure much of Real Long living and Existential Threat Perception.

 

[muse]

It also belies the position of many in Pakistan that a solution to this or the other problem will lessen tensions. The capabilities would be still there, won't it?

By all means keep that capability - the issue is the positioning of the capability on the Pakistan border - Indian always have the option of re-positioning this capability such that it is not arrayed against the Pakistan border. I have argued that were such a repositioning to be effected, it would be a strong signal that "cold start" has been disabled and the threat is no longer positioned at the border - in such an eventuality the case I make for the Indian forces being the primary threat would stand null and void.

 

[Bang Galore]

Based upon your Logic the Chinese have far more Capability, But theres a reason why they are not viewed from that angle.
As long as the Disputes are alive and the Hostile intentions exist , Obviously the Indian Threat earns a greater Priority as compared to the Militants.
The fact that local insurgency is a function of time and it will diminish with time as we saw in case of Sirilankan Tamil Tigers ,But a threat posed by nation with whom you have faught wars in the Past and continue with it on a course of confrontation in the light of Real and Alive Disputes will definitely secure much of Real Long living and Existential Threat Perception.

Not my logic. I was referring to Muse's post.

Listen, do try to understand, professionals do not look to stated "intentions", they pay more attention to capability - and I think it will be labored case to make that these strike formations do not have capability, in fact under cold start their capability is enhanced - so really as long as these formations are composed and situated and they are, the threat based on capabilities remains

His point was reasonably fair & I pointed out that the same can end up being used as a circular argument since India would always have the capability. The post of yours makes a point that I agree with that perceived intention (& I stress on perceived as opposed to actual) has as much to be figured in a calculation as capabilities.

By all means keep that capability - the issue is the positioning of the capability on the Pakistan border - Indian always have the option of re-positioning this capability such that it is not arrayed against the Pakistan border. I have argued that were such a repositioning to be effected, it would be a strong signal that "cold start" has been disabled and the threat is no longer positioned at the border - in such an eventuality the case I make for the Indian forces being the primary threat would stand null and void.

Two issues here. Firstly it is not the strike corps that are positioned close to the Pakistani border, they are still in the hinterland as of now. The Cold Start strategy revolves around the defensive corps/ holding corps having offensive capabilities to move rapidly into Pakistani territory without having to leave it all to the strike corps. The defensive corps are moving nowhere, so that capability would always exist.

Secondly, why would India remove that threat? As long as there is a belief that Pakistan based groups targetting India enjoy a degree of state support, it would be militarily imprudent to remove the threat thus removing a possible disincentive from further attacks being launched. Helping Pakistan winning its battle with the extremists cannot override India's primary concern of deterring attacks against Indian targets from Pakistan based groups. Just like you express no confidence in India's intentions, it would be foolish on the part of people charged with the duty of protecting the Indian state & her citizens to fully buy into Pakistani statements.

 

[hembo]

Certainly this is not the whole of my positon - rather it is that Indian have positioned more than one half million soldiers, more than 3000 tanks and hundreds of war planes on the Pakistani border - with regard to cold start, I argued that under this doctrine, the strike formations, their logistics and their their composition is such that the threat is amplified.

Listen, do try to understand, professionals do not look to stated "intentions", they pay more attention to capability - and I think it will be labored case to make that these strike formations do not have capability, in fact under cold start their capability is enhanced - so really as long as these formations are composed and situated and they are, the threat based on capabilities remains

I do understand the perspective of professionals you have put forward. And when you put it from that perceptive, your assertion is nearly irrefutable. The kind of history we share combined with the type of formation India is maintaining, It is nearly imposible for a professional from Pakistan not to believe the threat perception. It's a combination of two things:

a) Who is likely to harm Pakistan
b) Who can badly harm Pakistan

While your perspective is more akin to (b), I was trying to lean more towards (a). When you combine both (a) and (b), It becomes little interesting. However, we do have to consider a third element in the equation; (c) Pakistan's available deterrence towards all perceivable threats. This is what tilts the equation towards the elements within.

However, I do appreciate you taking time to explain a Pakistani professional's point of view very avidly. I do see the larger picture now. And I sincerely wish India will redeploy the formations you're talking about to increase level of confidence amongst Pakistanis. Just like reducing military deployment from 2001 label even after the Mumbai incident, which had allowed Pakistan to engage more towards the evil elements on the North-West side of their border.

The powers at the helm of affair must do everything possible to allow Pakistan to concentrate on cleansing of the many threats within. This is not only important for Pakistan; it is very important India, South Asia and the World in general.

 

[LAKHNAVI]

Guys , i might be wrong , but its my perception that the nuclear explosions (shakti ) were done to bust pakistan financially, knowing pretty well that pakistan will follow suite in exploding nuclear devices ( which every one knew they had), both Indian and pakistan will come under sanctions. indian economy had the stamina to survive and come out of the sanctions but pakistans economy will go bust . same is the case with ''cold start'' here they have to match and counter Indian stance further stressing their finances and capabilities.

 

[rastor]

Helping Pakistan winning its battle with the extremists cannot override India's primary concern of deterring attacks against Indian targets from Pakistan based groups. Just like you express no confidence in India's intentions, it would be foolish on the part of people charged with the duty of protecting the Indian state & her citizens to fully buy into Pakistani statements.

And why on earth will India "help" pakistan .? .... it is clear now that the nukes are safe with PA....

India makes it imperative for Pakistan to be chummy with the extremists..... barring a change in Pakistan orientation that makes that imperative void and also given the fact that the "chumminess" is stunting pakistan's image & economy (in turn its ability to harm india).... .in fact the opposite should hold true - make it hard for Pakistan to completely disassociate itself with these elements..... at least given the enemity it seems to be the more logical course of action. Assuming this increases attacks on India it still is a more "pound wise penny foolish" course of action..... and then there is the remote chance that it may actually help change pakistan's orientation.....

 

[T-Rex]

Primary threat to Pak is from within, not India

SHAUN GREGORY, Nov 21, 2010, 04.35am IST

The Italian writer Dino Buzzati's most famous novel " Il Deserto dei Tartari" or The Tartar Steppe is the story of garrison troops at a remote frontier post. They are expectantly poised for the invasion of a Tartar army, which never comes, yet unable to go forward or retreat. It is, amongst other things, a powerful and thought-provoking meditation on the nature and futility of rigid military thinking. It is also, of course, an unintended metaphor for the Indian-Pakistan military stand-off.

Hostility towards India and belief in the reality of the Indian threat to Pakistan is woven into the fabric of every Pakistani soldier. This, first through the Pakistani state education system whose curricula inculcates a hatred of the Hindu "other" and glorifies the Pakistan Army as the saviour of the nation, and second through an outdated military training regime which builds on the child's prejudice and lays the foundation for a career of military service at the metaphorical remote frontier military post.

India is a bit like the Tartars. It has twice imposed military defeat on Pakistan – in 1965 and 1971 – and in neither case sought to assimilate, occupy or otherwise destroy Pakistan. The creation of Bangladesh in the latter war was Bengali-led and an inevitable working through of the inherent contradictions of East and West Pakistan; India did not press its advantage in 1971 over the rump West Pakistan despite Pakistan having lost roughly half its navy, one third of its army, and a quarter of its air-force. India did not seek to exploit its nuclear monopoly over Pakistan, after the nuclear test in 1974, to the detriment of the Pakistan state. Nor has India been involved in significant military action against Pakistan since 1971 except in response to Pakistani or Pakistani-backed adventurism, such as in Kargil in 1999. India has a "no first use" nuclear policy and in terms of casus belli "Cold Start" is reactive not pre-emptive.

The widespread Pakistani perception of the Indian threat to Pakistan is inculcated by the Pakistan Army for one central reason. That is, to legitimize the Pakistan Army and ISI's primacy in the Pakistan polity and thereby to justify the Army's claim to a huge slice of Pakistan's national resources. The perception of an Indian threat thus serves a purpose quite disconnected from the reality of that threat.

In a different context this perhaps would be a wasteful but essentially stable situation and the Pakistan army, like Buzzati's Fort Bastiani troops, would be able to grow old and weary, looking out across the border for an Indian Army that never came. But in the present context the fixation with the Indian threat gravely imperils Pakistan. Investment in the bloated Pakistan army distorts the Pakistan economy, denies millions of ordinary Pakistanis basic state investment in education, welfare, health and economic opportunity, and undoubtedly, as a result, fans the flames of Islamic militancy. The fixation with the Indian threat diverts urgently needed military spending in Pakistan away from investment in counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism equipment and training in favour of India-centric expenditure. It dissuades the Pakistanis from diverting military forces away from the Eastern border to tackle the militant Islamic cancer in Pakistan's west, even as that cancer spreads and eats away at the health of Pakistan.

More dangerously still, the fixation with the Indian threat has persuaded generations of Pakistani Army and Intelligence chiefs to create or sustain and empower militant Islamic groups, in Hilary Clinton's words as a "hedge" against India. These groups now threaten the integrity and perhaps even the survival of Pakistan itself and function as the most likely mechanism – through atrocities like the Indian Parliament attack in 2001 or the Mumbai attacks of 2008 – of escalation to war between India and Pakistan.

The rebuttal of these arguments – that India's large standing army is a material reality that has to be at the heart of Pakistan's security concerns – is legitimate but misses two essential qualifications. The first is that India is no longer Pakistan's primary security challenge; that is now the terrorism and extremism of militant Islam. The second is that in military terms, capability does not automatically equate with intent: India's large standing army does not pose a threat to Pakistan per se any more than a large American or French army poses a threat per se to the UK. The issue of threat turns on perceived intent and once again we are back on Buzzati's battlements.

The peoples of India and Pakistan, the business and financial sectors of India and Pakistan, the sports, arts and media communities of India and Pakistan, all wish to see bilateral tensions eased and not even the most hawkish voice in India wants to see Pakistan fall into the hands of militant Islam. India has done much to ease tensions in drawing down some forces on its Pakistan border, in reacting responsibly to provocations such as Mumbai, and in working with Pakistan's civilian government to advance bilateral cooperation as far as possible, but India could do more. The main obstacle to further progress, however, remains the belligerence and strategic myopia of the Pakistan army.

The United States is poised once again to hand that same Pakistan army more than $2 billion dollars in a new five-year military aid package. Despite a few nods to the Leahy amendment in restricting which Pakistani military units can receive the aid (on grounds that some Pakistani military units are suspected to have been involved in torture and extra-judicial killings) there is precious little in the bill which will give the US genuine leverage either in terms of forcing the Pakistan armyISI to act against militant Islam within its borders or to persuade the Pakistan Army to shift its focus away from India and towards the internal and global threat of militant Islam. Strategic thinkers in Delhi could usefully assist the United States by giving further attention to how India might provide reassurance to Pakistanis of India's unthreatening intent.

Shaun Gregory is the director of the Pakistan Security Research Unit, University of Bradford, UK


Read more: Primary threat to Pak is from within, not India - The Times of India Primary threat to Pak is from within, not India - The Times of India

In the same way it can be argued that the primary threat to the US or isreal or india is from within, so try to sell this somewhere else.

 

[I FLY HIGH]

In the same way it can be argued that the primary threat to the US or isreal or india is from within, so try to sell this somewhere else.

I think there are more terrorists in India rather than pakistan. 25%OF india is controlled by nexalites . Maharashter is controlled by VHP. who killed GANDHI (respected) ji ? A pakistani or an Indian?

 

[T-Rex]

I think there are more terrorists in India rather than pakistan. 25%OF india is controlled by nexalites . Maharashter is controlled by VHP. who killed GANDHI (respected) ji ? A pakistani or an Indian?

You're right to the point. BTW you've forgotten to mention the Maoists; they're blowing up indians everyday, yet these sly indians conveniently forget to mention that threat.

 

[Bang Galore]

I think there are more terrorists in India rather than pakistan. 25%OF india is controlled by nexalites . Maharashter is controlled by VHP. who killed GANDHI (respected) ji ? A pakistani or an Indian?

Prsence in 25% does not amount to control. The naxalites control nothing. Maharashtra is governed by the Congress & the VHP control nothing!(Did you mean the Shiv Sena or MNS?) They are a fringe group whose influence is diminishing so drastically that even their parent body is embarrassed by their actions.

You're right to the point. BTW you've forgotten to mention the Maoists; they're blowing up indians everyday, yet these sly indians conveniently forget to mention that threat.

Sly Indians? Whatever?

 

[LaBong]

You're right to the point. BTW you've forgotten to mention the Maoists; they're blowing up indians everyday, yet these sly indians conveniently forget to mention that threat.

Yeah evil Indians gonna eat you alive!! Muahahahaha!

Save your fish and don't let your kids go outside alone!

 

[T-Rex]

Yeah evil Indians gonna eat you alive!! Muahahahaha!

Save your fish and don't let your kids go outside alone!

You're pretty proud of smoking dope aren't you? I'm telling from your picture, please don't mind, you look like those indian heroes who beat the **** out of all the villains with his underwear.

 

[LaBong]

You're pretty proud of smoking dope aren't you? I'm telling from your picture, please don't mind, you look like those indian heroes who beat the **** out of all the villains with his underwear.

You're right!

Speacially when the undies cost a fortune.