Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

[ouiouiouiouiouioui]

very dangerous for the world if it is half successful...nobody knows if it is used what will happen........

 

[Screaming Skull]

Guyz there is no need of testing one, simulation runs can easily find out the exact number of Kilotons or Megatons.

Doesn't India has the worlds fourth fastest supercomputer???
Why build it and not use??

I say to simulated analysis rather than actual testing.

No my friend, such a thinking is a fallacy. It is equivalent to saying that any one with access to marbles can make a Taj-Mahal. A computer is merely a device for computing. One must understand that a computer doesn’t think for itself. It merely carries out the operations programmed by the operator. One has to write a program/code to effectively simulate any physical phenomena, in this case- the detonation of a nuclear device. For that one needs a very deep understanding of the underlying physics. The amount of established physics available to us in this field is limited. Most theories have to be developed ab-initio.

However, such handicaps can be overcome by conducting at least a bare minimum number of tests to gather just enough data to compare your simulation results with established test data (remember US has conducted over 1000 tests & Russia over 500). If it appears that the code doesn’t give near enough results, one can use the test data and arrive at correlation parameters and apply them to further simulations to improve the accuracy of the codes. Even then one can’t guarantee fool proof accuracy.

From what I know, it appears that India’s cold test capabilities for pure fission and fusion boosted fission (FBF) weapons is formidable and sufficient to simulate large explosions. This was proven when our simulation results pre 74 blasts and the experimental results were found to be in close agreement. We have improved our capabilities significantly since then and hence I don’t doubt our capabilities to cold test pure fission and FBF weapons. But, what I do doubt is our ability to simulate TN blasts. We may have developed significant capabilities over the years but those capabilities have to be verified with more tests. Just one test is simply not enough. In this context, just one more series of 2-3 tests in a span of a couple of weeks ought to be enough to (1) clear all doubts about our thermonuclear designs (2) gather enough experimental data to further improve our cold test capability

Read this for more insights- FOXNews.com - Nuclear-Blast Computer Simulations No Match for Real Thing - Science News | Science & Technology | Technology News

 

[New Vision]

let me try.

it says: 3, 2, 1, ignition!!!
phussssssss....

Hey buddy this is an interesting topic, you either wanna contribute or just stay the bloody hell out

 

[New Vision]

This topic has really piqued the whole scientific world as of now. There are many questions. Santhanam comes out with a timely rebuttal of Indian claims, then the top Indian scientists refute his allegations. And the whole scietific community is echoing the same old crap, some say yay and some say nay. In all related forums we are publisihing all that has been said before, give or take a few new revelations. As a non scientific person, I see the beginning of something new happening here, either India hand in glove with the USA are ploying something , either India is ploying something all on its own, or at the worst is a scientist unwittingly opened an old can of worms. My best take is that the world is awakening to a very powerful China, and their best pawn to confront it at this date is India. Who knows, a joint western approval (or blind eye) would encourage India to test again. Interesting as it would seem , what would be the China / Pakistan joint response

 

[zombie]

Guyz there is no need of testing one, simulation runs can easily find out the exact number of Kilotons or Megatons.

Really? How do you make a Megaton thermonuclear bomb via simulation? Just add more plutonium to the 20+kt design?

 

[jawadqamar]

Why K Santhanam said Pokharan II was not a success


It was a major embarrassment for the country when a senior scientist of the Defence Research and Development Organisation, K Santhanam, made the revelation that Pokhran II, India's nuclear tests in 1998, was not entirely successful.

His statement that comes almost a decade after the test has landed the scientist in hot water. However, Santhanam says he stands by what he has said and has no intention of changing his stance.

In a telephonic interview with Vicky Nanjappa, Santhanam explains why there was a necessity to make this revelation 11 years later. He also disagrees with former President A P J Abdul Kalam who has said that Pokhran II was a complete success.

Why did you state that Pokharan II was not entirely a success?

As I have said earlier, based on the seismic measurements and also the opinions from experts, there was a much lower yield in the thermonuclear device test. It was lesser than what had been claimed at that time.

Your statement has created a furore in the nation.

I have just stated that facts. I did what I thought was necessary and I don't see why there needs to be an embarrassment due to this.

But you could have said this at that time itself, immediately after the tests were conducted.

I don't agree with you. I thought that the timing was right and hence decided on making this statement now.

There has been a hue and cry since your statement. Is there any chance you want to change your stand?

No. Why should I change my stand? I will always stand by what I have said and there is no question of changing my stand or my statement.

Even the expert opinion from across the world makes it clear that the yield in the thermonuclear device test was much lower than what was claimed.

I have maintained and will always maintain that the test was not more than 60 per cent successful in terms of the yield it generated. I have made this assessment based on the report of the instrumentation data that is available and also the programme coordinator.

Former President A P J Abdul Kalam, who was also involved with the tests, has said that Pokhran II was entirely successful.

I would like to react to that. First of all, Dr Kalam is not a nuclear scientist. He is a missile scientist and he was not present there at that time. He is blissfully ignorant of the facts. Do I need to say more?

All I want to say is that I stand my ground on this issue.

Home Minister P Chidambaram too has shared Kalam's view.

Chidambaram, being part of the establishment, is just repeating what the others are saying, like a parrot.

You have been accused of making this statement after over a decade at the insistence of people against the Bharatiya Janata Party

Let people say what they want. As I maintained I thought that the timing was right and hence this statement was made. I was not provoked or coaxed by anyone to issue such a statement and let me assure you that there is no malice involved in this.

You speak so much about the timing of making your statement. What is this timing exactly?

There is a change in the administration in the United States of America. They are bound to further pressurise India to sign the CTBT. In such an event it was necessary to make such a statement or speak the truth on the issue so that India does not rush into signing the CTBT.

Therefore, I say the timing of my statement was perfectly right.

 

[holysaturn]

wrong kalam was present during nuclear tests because he was the scientific adviser and the head of DRDO at that time and not only a rocket scientist.All these statements were from a scientist who did not belong to the inner circle of the team.US and Russia were given explanations about the intentionally low yields.

Someone is trying to pressure on the govt thru media and people to reveal more truths abt its H,N bombs.

PM dismisses Pokhran II speculations; asks BJP to settle down - Express India

i dont y people believe in lesser scientists.if kalam had stated tis and santhanam had contradicted it wud they hav faith in it.many here want to see india ashamed and are brousing thru the net for such BS.the armed forces are confident(even suresh mehta who is open on gaps in capability bet india and china this its false),kalam is confident so why worry.

 

[idune]

While india try to use the failure to make case for another test, it will only be testing water with US red line. Even india did not sign CTBT, signing nuclear deal with US has implicitly impose test restriction on india. Any venture of further test by india will put NSG waiver granted to india along with nuclear deal with US in jeopardy.

 

[M_Saint]

While india try to use the failure to make case for another test, it will only be testing water with US red line. Even india did not sign CTBT, signing nuclear deal with US has implicitly impose test restriction on india. Any venture of further test by india will put NSG waiver granted to india along with nuclear deal with US in jeopardy.

Idune Vhai,

Those Chanakyas were so treacherous that they even beat Canadians in deception by diverting uranium from energy graded to weapon grade in early 70s. Then they went ahead to explode their first NUKE in 74. Talk about proliferation and hypocrisy? How many times you hear NYT writing it or disseminating India's Nuke-secret sale to Saddam compare to AQK's clandestine activities?

 

[MZUBAIR]

Some blazzing newz, I read in express news today.

Al Indian nukes test in 1998 failed. Indian Scientist blame that underworld theft nukes material etc.

152 Scientist kidnapped or killed.

Reference:-
Express News Paper, Back Page-8

 

[Gabbar]

Sethna slams Kalam, says Pokhran II done in haste​

Homi Sethna, a former top atomic boss, on Tuesday waded into the 1998 Pokhran row when he backed ex-DRDO scientist K Santhanam's assessment
that the nuclear test was not a full success and slammed former President A P J Abdul Kalam for rubbishing the claim.

"I fully support Santhanam and I stand by his statement that India needs more nuke tests to be conducted," Sethna, the guiding force behind India's first nuclear test in 1974, said.

Sethna now in his eighties suggested that Kalam, who was heading the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) when Santhanam was coordinating Pokhran-II, suggested that the missile man was no qualified authority to rubbish his former colleague's claim.

Simultaneously, another former chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) P K Iyengar alleged that the 1998 tests were done in haste at the bidding of the government of the day. A BJP-led NDA government headed by Atal Behari Vajpayee had just assumed office when India conducted the tests.

The comments by Sethna, who was the AEC chairman in 1974 came notwithstanding Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Kalam setting at rest the controversy over the 1998 nuclear tests.

Kalam said the only thermonuclear device (hydrogen bomb) tested produced the "desired yield".

But Sethna said "former president APJ Abdul Kalam was not a scientist and Santhanam is a physicist and he knew what he was talking.
"What does Kalam understand about physics? He can say anything as he was the President and a politician."

"What Santhanam said was absolutely correct," he added.

"What did he (Kalam) know about extracting, making explosive grade? He didn't know a thing. By being a president he appeared to wear the stature. He relied on atomic energy to gain additional stature," said Sethna about Kalam while talking to a TV channel.

"I don't like politicians to interfere specially lay politicians to interfere any more. I firmly believe that they should stay out. When we did the test... the first test there was no politician. It was a raw one. We were lucky that the whole thing collapsed," said Sethna, who in his days in the atomic establishment had the reputation of being a blunt, plainspeaking organisational leader.

Kalam had on August 27 said Pokhran II was a success rubbishing Santhanam's claim that the tests were a "fizzle".

Iyengar, who was among the three top atomic scientists who oversaw the 1974 tests, has already shared Santhanam's assessment and questioned official claims of success.

Iyengar suggested that in March 1998, two months before Pokhran-II, India's intelligence must have found out that the Pakistanis were about to test and that they were serious.

"Therefore, they (the new government in India) asked these people(scientists) to hurry up, do as fast as possible in all this extra pressure to be one up politically because BJP had just come to power," he said.

"If Pakistan fired an explosion before India what a common man in India would have thought," Iyengar added.

The Principal Scientific advisor of Government of India Dr R Chidambaram, who led the team of scientists for Pokhran-II, denied Santhanam's statement and said he had to explain scientifically why the tests were not fully successful.

 

[pmukherjee]

While india try to use the failure to make case for another test, it will only be testing water with US red line. Even india did not sign CTBT, signing nuclear deal with US has implicitly impose test restriction on india. Any venture of further test by india will put NSG waiver granted to india along with nuclear deal with US in jeopardy.

China, the good friend of Bangla desh needed FIVE tests to confirm its thermonuclear status. And someone from BD blames India after only one TN test for 'india try to use the failure to make case for another test'.

Relax buddy, if India wants - India will.

The west can go and sing 'Saadde naal rahoge to aish karo ge-.....taaraarara..........

 

[Gabbar]

China, the good friend of Bangla desh needed FIVE tests to confirm its thermonuclear status. And someone from BD blames India after only one TN test for 'india try to use the failure to make case for another test'.

Relax buddy, if India wants - India will.

The west can go and sing 'Saadde naal rahoge to aish karo ge-.....taaraarara..........

​

UBIl65dcnOc[/media] - Daler Mehndi- Na Na Na Re

 

[skybolt]

Indian Nuclear scientist K Santhanam claims that India's Pokhran II nuclear test was a Failure.
.

 

[skybolt]

Former DRDO scientist Dr Santhanam has questioned the success of the 1998 Pokhran nuclear tests. He has now told NDTV he endorsed the tests as it was based on quick look data.