Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

[IBM]

Its a another excuse to conduct further nuclear test.

 

[white_pawn]

Its a another excuse to conduct further nuclear test.

yup it could be, and y should'nt it be.

 

[TsAr]

There could be different theories associted with this.......A certain lobby in India mite be behind this which does not want India to sign CTBT....Plus they mite be thinking of conducting of some more nuclear tests...we will have to wait and see

 

[SinoIndusFriendship]

New Delhi, Aug.27 (ANI): A senior scientist and DRDO representative at Pokhran II has admitted for the first time that the May 1998 nuclear tests may not have been as successful as has been projected.

K Santhanam, who was director for 1998 test site preparations, told the Times of India in an interview that the yield of thermonuclear explosions was actually much below expectations and the tests were perhaps more a fizzle rather than a big bang.

In nuclear parlance, a test is described as a fizzle when it fails to meet the desired yield.

Santhanam said the yield for the thermonuclear test, or hydrogen bomb in popular usage, was much lower than what was claimed. Santhanam also said that given this fact, India should not rush into signing the CTBT.

He emphasized the need for India to conduct more tests to improve its nuclear weapon programme.

The test was said to have yielded 45 kilotons (KT) but was challenged by western experts who said it was not more than 20 KT.

The exact yield of the thermonuclear explosion is important as during the heated debate on the India- US nuclear deal, it was strenuously argued by the government’s top scientists that no more tests were required for the weapons programme. It was said the disincentives the nuclear deal imposed on testing would not really matter as further tests were not required.

According to security expert Bharat Karnad, Santhanam’s admission is remarkable because this is the first time a nuclear scientist and one closely associated with the 1998 tests has disavowed the government line.

“This means the government has to do something. Either you don’t have a thermonuclear deterrent or prove that you have it, if you claim to have it,’ said Karnad.

The yield of the thermonuclear device test in 1998 has led to much debate and while western experts have stated that it was not as claimed, BARC has maintained that it stands by its assessment.

Indian scientists had claimed after the test that the thermonuclear device gave a total yield of 45 KT, 15 KT from the fission trigger and 30 KT from the fusion process and that the theoretical yield of the device (200 KT) was reduced to 45 KT in order to minimise seismic damage to villages near the test range.

British experts, however, later challenged the claims saying that the actual combined yield for the fission device and thermonuclear bomb was not more than 20 KT. (ANI)India must not sign CTBT as Pokhran II was not fully successful, says DRDO scientist

20 kt bomb are not sufficient nuclear deterrents. If you want to see 'real' nuclear deterrents in the range of 10+ MT look to China-Russia-USA.

 

[white_pawn]

Definately China, Russia & USA are way to advance in these field compared to India to be frank, and i also feel GOI should not hurry or should not even consider signing CTBT yet. As i think India should conduct more tests and collect sufficient details need to conduct the same in Virtual Scenario.

 

[gogbot]

Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist​

The yield of the thermonuclear device test in 1998 has led to much debate and while western experts have stated that it was not as claimed, BARC has maintained that it stands by its assessment. Indian scientists had claimed after the test that the thermonuclear device gave a total yield of 45 KT, 15 KT from the fission trigger and 30 KT from the fusion process and that the theoretical yield of the device (200 KT) was reduced to 45 KT in order to minimise seismic damage to villages near the test range.
British experts, however, later challenged the claims saying that the actual combined yield for the fission device and thermonuclear bomb was not more than 20 KT.

Key Pokharan scientist R Chidambaram had described these reports as incorrect. He has also argued that computer simulations would be enough in future design.

I think that failure would be an inaccurate word, but "fail to meet expectations would be more accurate"

As it would seem that, the bomb successfully initiated a fusion reaction. The fission trigger used was only 15KT, but the yield stated by the reports is well over 20KT. So it would be plausible to assume that after achieving a partial fusion reaction, they felt that computer simulations would be sufficient to create bombs with a greater yield.

this is purely speculation of course. However when
the theoretical yield of the device (200 KT) was reduced to 45 KT.
Perhaps that had led to the decreased yield

The US, USSR tests were done in the 50's and 60's. When the technology was still relatively under developed, and being refined. Since then many scientific journals and reports had published more of our developed knowledge on Theoretical fission and fusion reactions.

Enough so that with the development of more advanced computers combined with more accurate and improved data on the theoretical science behind it allowed for computer simulations to substitue actual testing.

Now you may ask if that's true, why doesn't everyone have Fusion bombs. Well simply put however much theoretical knowledge was available, with out the engineering expertise to actually build a bomb all the theory is as useful as it was back in 1939.

Since India can produce nuclear fuel, Build a bomb, and have it successfully initiate both fission and fusion reactions, however inefficient the later may have been in actual testing. Still allow India to make Thermonuclear devices, with only the help of computer simulations to ensure that appropriate yields are met.

Regardless of the actual yield, the fallout/radiation from multiple fusion detonations will be enough deterrence for any logical enemy.

 

[Khajur]

20 kt bomb are not sufficient nuclear deterrents. If you want to see 'real' nuclear deterrents in the range of 10+ MT look to China-Russia-USA.

It depends what u call a real nuclear deterrents .

20 kt bomb is equal to the size of the Bomb that fell on Nagashakhi ,japan and little boy of Hirosima was roughtly 15KT powerful.

Now which country in the world would like to see anther Hirosima and Nagashakhi type bombs being droped on their country??

Megatons hydrogen bombs are more experimental than real weapons for war.

 

[ratolz]

^^^ I doubt there will be another test. Too much is at stake to conduct another test. We dont need to conduct another test when western world is openig it's doors to us for thier technology. World knows that we have the nukes and it should be enough to keep any aggresion at the bay.

This is a needless fear. Current developments suggest that, in a decade or so, India itself will become a major nuclear equipment supplier to the whole world.

The multinationals of France, US and Japan want to manufacture nuclear equipment in India to meet not just Indian but global demand. Once India becomes part of the global supply chain, it will become effectively sanctions-proof. As a supplier of global equipment, it will be in a position to impose sanctions on others, not just be at the receiving end.
India plans to set up several massive nuclear power parks.

The sites chosen so far are Jaitapur in Maharashtra, Haripur in West Bengal, Patisonapur in Orissa, Mithirvirdi in Gujarat and Kowadi in Andhra Pradesh. Six to eight reactors, of 1,000-1,650 MW, will be installed at each nuclear park. Negotiations are in progress with four global suppliers, GE-Hitachi, Toshiba-Westinghouse, Areva of France, and Atomstroyeksport of Russia.

Earlier, when South Korea and China placed major orders for nuclear power plants, their deals mandated transfer of technology and localisation of equipment manufacture. India will follow the same path. All foreign nuclear suppliers will transfer technology and indigenise production in India.


They will do so enthusiastically, not reluctantly. Visiting teams of MNCs from France and the US have expressed great keenness to set up joint ventures in India to meet not just Indian but global demand for equipment. Why? India and China have emerged as low-cost producers of electrical machinery. Western manufacturers find the cost of new nuclear plants spiralling, casting doubts on the viability of nuclear power. To survive, they must slash costs. They can best do so by outsourcing production to India and China.

For decades, not a single nuclear power plant has come up in the US, UK, or Germany. Nuclear power has been derided as expensive and unsafe. But now global warming is a pressing issue. Nuclear power is suddenly seen as essential to produce carbon-free electricity.

The Copenhagen conference later this year will set ambitious targets for reducing carbon emissions. One key strategy will be to tax fossil fuels, either by a carbon tax or a cap-and-trade system for emissions. This taxation of fossil fuels promises to make nuclear energy economically viable again, provided equipment costs are kept down.

With cost control, the demand for nuclear equipment could quadruple. Existing capacity is not remotely enough for massive new projects in the pipeline. All major suppliers need to create new capacity. And they intend to create much of this in countries which have skills, low costs, and large local demand, India and China.

Only two plants in the whole world (in France and Japan) can make the giant forgings needed for large nuclear power plants. Bharat Forge has recently become the second biggest auto forging company in the world, thanks to its success in cutting costs. It has now signed a pact with Areva to manufacture nuclear equipment, including giant forgings . Larsen & Toubro has signed a similar nuclear equipment deal with Mitsubishi. The Jindals and Anil Ambani also appear interested. All are formidable low-cost producers.

Till now, Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd has held a virtual monopoly on large power plants. Now, Bharat Forge has tied up with Alsthom and L&T with Toshiba to manufacture conventional power plants. These can later be upgraded to produce complete nuclear power plants.

India may still find it difficult to get plutonium reprocessing or ura nium enrichment technology. This may be true of some hi-tech com ponents too. So, India may not be come self-sufficient in every aspect of nuclear power. But if it becomes a major exporter of nuclear equip ment, it will become effectively sanc tions-proof.


If all the global manufacturers have plants in India itself, import sanctions will lose their meaning And if India itself becomes a vital supplier of nuclear components to the rest of the world, others cannot impose sanctions on India without suffering supply disruptions them selves.

That’s why the biggest hawks in our nuclear establishment, who badly want nuclear testing in the dis tant future, can relax on the issue of sanctions. De facto, India will be come a member of the privileged P 5 when it becomes part of the glob al supply chain of nuclear equip ment in the next 10 years. """""

N-deal: India is becoming sanctions-proof - Swaminathan S A Aiyar-Columnists-Opinion-The Economic Times




If india tests, what maximum usa can do?? stop supplying uranium or can ask for the component he has supplied?? or may be some other countries will so the same. But this will not be a worry. As by the time our own Thorium based technology will be fully developed. Yes it developed now also but its costly and less efficient. But by that time we can hope, our scientist will reduce its cost, and Our government would be with sufficient money to set up thorium based power plants. Dont forget, we have huge thorium resources.

""India's 30% Thorium resource base can fuel for next 2500 years of Electricity as India has large reserves of thorium — about 360,000 tonnes""

JiniShans Blogs: India's 30% Thorium resource base can fuel for next 2500 years of Electricity

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thorium

I don't think india will go for another test in next decade, But by that time our own thorium based technology would be much more advance and cheaper, plus there would be no need of uranium imports. Moreover present Import of uranium will help us to save our own uranium reserves and we would be able to develop them. India is developing some new uranium mines in many countries. here is the link
New Uranium Mining Projects - India


and about new uranium mines in india:

Issues at Jaduguda Uranium Mine, Jharkhand, India

you can google also to find out all new uranium sites india has found or opening.


In next 10 to 20 years, India will be much more powerfull in economy w and also in technology, So no country will go for real santions, but they will make some cry. Thats why i dont see any problem in future tests.

here is some more info about the future of thorium technology

Is thorium the answer to our energy crisis? - Science, News - The Independent

FuturePundit: Thorium Nuclear Reactor Designs Advancing

 

[Screaming Skull]

A small revelation- the guy who let the cat loose amongst the pigeons, Dr. K Santhanam was/is a senior R&AW agent and going by his credentials, a master of psy-ops too!

?Colonel Srinivas? recalls N-day, Pokhran II tests- Hindustan Times

Rest I leave to the members’ interpretation

 

[zombie]

Defence Ministry rejects scientist's stand on Pokhran II

.. adding that India has a meaningful number of nuclear weapons and an effective delivery system to go with it.

Why didn't the minister clearly say India has a meaningful number of thermonuclear weapons and an effective delivery system to go with it?.....which is what is being questioned.

If topic in question is "aloo" he will speak about "baingan" to clear all doubts? Both are vegetables after all so should be sufficient for Indians..is it?

 

[ratolz]

Former NSA disagrees with scientist, says Pokhran II successful - India - NEWS - The Times of India


Former NSA disagrees with scientist, says Pokhran II successful:

NEW DELH: Former National Security Advisor Brajesh Mishra has rejected senior DRDO scientist K Santhanam's assertion that the 1998 Pokhran II

nuclear tests were not fully successful.

Mishra told a private television channel that the five nuclear tests conducted in May 1998 were successful and dismissed Santhanam's statement with regard to them.

"Dr A P J Abdul Kalam, who was then the scientific adviser to the defence ministry, had openly said that the 1998 nuclear tests conducted in Pokhran were successful. It is enough that Dr Kalam said that they were successful. Dr. Santhanam was working directly under Dr Kalam. That should set the record straight," said Mishra

Mishra's statement came as the defence ministry also rejected Santhanam's assertion and added that India has a meaningful number of nuclear weapons and an effective delivery system to go with it.

Sources in the ministry told the Times Now television channel that India has a nuclear deterrent that is adequate for its security.

K Santhanam, who was director for 1998 test site preparations, told the Times of India in an interview that the yield of thermonuclear explosions was actually much below expectations and the tests were perhaps more a fizzle rather than a big bang.

In nuclear parlance, a test is described as a fizzle when it fails to meet the desired yield.

Santhanam said the yield for the thermonuclear test, or hydrogen bomb in popular usage, was much lower than what was claimed. Santhanam also said that given this fact, India should not rush into signing the CTBT.

He emphasized the need for India to conduct more tests to improve its nuclear weapon programme.

The test was said to have yielded 45 kilotons (KT) but was challenged by western experts who said it was not more than 20 KT.

The exact yield of the thermonuclear explosion is important as during the heated debate on the India- US nuclear deal, it was strenuously argued by the government's top scientists that no more tests were required for the weapons programme. It was said the disincentives the nuclear deal imposed on testing would not really matter as further tests were not required.

According to security expert Bharat Karnad, Santhanam's admission is remarkable because this is the first time a nuclear scientist and one closely associated with the 1998 tests has disavowed the government line.

"This means the government has to do something. Either you don't have a thermonuclear deterrent or prove that you have it, if you claim to have it,'' said Karnad.

The yield of the thermonuclear device test in 1998 has led to much debate and while western experts have stated that it was not as claimed, BARC has maintained that it stands by its assessment.

Indian scientists had claimed after the test that the thermonuclear device gave a total yield of 45 KT, 15 KT from the fission trigger and 30 KT from the fusion process and that the theoretical yield of the device (200 KT) was reduced to 45 KT in order to minimise seismic damage to villages near the test range.

British experts, however, later challenged the claims saying that the actual combined yield for the fission device and thermonuclear bomb was not more than 20 KT.

Sources claim that Santhanam had admitted that the test was a fizzle during a discussion on CTBT organized by IDSA.

India conducted five nuclear tests at the Pokhran test range. Three of them were conducted on May 11 and two on May 13, 1998.

Rajagopala Chidambaram headed the team, which conducted tests, and the device was developed at the Defence Research and Development Organization's Ballistics Research Laboratory.

 

[pmukherjee]

Former NSA disagrees with scientist, says Pokhran II successful - India - NEWS - The Times of India

Dr Santhanam is a scientist of great repute. What he is saying is in line with western analysis at that time. A large number of fairly competent international bodies had disputed the thermonuclear bomb in 1998. If it is true and if India's H-Bomb is really a question mark, then I think it is time for a review of our test moratorium. Without the H-Bomb, India's nuclear deterent will be severely crippled. The ICBMs and SLBMs more or less mandate the use of H-bombs. Though fission warheads can also be used but it makes much more sense to use H-bomb warheads with MIRVs.

It is unwise for some non technical public servants and politicians who dont know their @$$ from their elbow, to disregard Dr Santhanam and force India to rush into CTBT. If India needs more tests to confirm its thermonuclear capabilities, it should go for more tests. India's national security comes first and fore most. India has to do what India has to do. Let the West do what it can do.

 

[Khajur]

A small revelation- the guy who let the cat loose amongst the pigeons, Dr. K Santhanam was/is a senior R&AW agent and going by his credentials, a master of psy-ops too!

?Colonel Srinivas? recalls N-day, Pokhran II tests- Hindustan Times

Rest I leave to the members’ interpretation

Retired RAW man on who was on DRDO deputation making a hue & cry about thermo nuclear yeild on which he never had any cule but only quoting based on foreign Seismic reports.

One on the hand, our usual inane media putting its own spin by calling it revelation, by the nuclear scientist Dr. K Santhanam says the thermo nuclear yield was low as if he calculated them himself, with out proper crosschecking on the back ground of the man.

 

[skybolt]

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Threads merged.