Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

[Gabbar]

Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist​

The 1998 Pokhran II nuclear tests might have been far from the success they have been claimed to be. The yield of the thermonuclear
explosions was actually much below expectations and the tests were perhaps more a fizzle rather than a big bang.
The controversy over the yield of the tests, previously questioned by foreign agencies, has been given a fresh lease of life with K Santhanam, senior scientist and DRDO representative at Pokhran II, admitting for the first time that the only thermonuclear device tested was a "fizzle". In nuclear parlance, a test is described as a fizzle when it fails to meet the desired yield.

Santhanam, who was director for 1998 test site preparations, told TOI on Monday that the yield for the thermonuclear test, or hydrogen bomb in popular usage, was much lower than what was claimed. Santhanam, who was DRDO's chief advisor, could well have opened up the debate on whether or not India should sign CTBT as claims that India has all the data required and can manage with simulations is bound to be called into question.

``Based upon the seismic measurements and expert opinion from world over, it is clear that the yield in the thermonuclear device test was much lower than what was claimed. I think it is well documented and that is why I assert that India should not rush into signing the CTBT,'' Santhanam told TOI on Wednesday.

He emphasised the need for India to conduct more tests to improve its nuclear weapon programme.

The test was said to have yielded 45 kilotons (KT) but was challenged by western experts who said it was not more than 20 KT.

The exact yield of the thermonuclear explosion is important as during the heated debate on the India-

US nuclear deal, it was strenuously argued by the government's top scientists that no more tests were required for the weapons programme. It was said the disincentives the nuclear deal imposed on testing would not really matter as further tests were not required.

According to security expert Bharat Karnad, Santhanam's admission is remarkable because this is the first time a nuclear scientist and one closely associated with the 1998 tests has disavowed the government line. ``He is not just saying that India should not sign the CTBT, which I believe is completely against India's interests, but also that the 1998 thermonuclear device test was inadequate.

His saying this means that the government has to do something. Either you don't have a thermonuclear deterrent or prove that you have it, if you claim to have it,'' said Karnad.

Sources said that Santhanam had admitted that the test was a fizzle during a discussion on CTBT organised by IDSA. Karnad also participated in the seminar. He told TOI that no country has succeeded in achieving targets with only its first test of a thermonuclear device.

``Two things are clear; that India should not sign CTBT and that it needs more thermonuclear device tests,'' said Santhanam.

The yield of the thermonuclear device test in 1998 has led to much debate and while western experts have stated that it was not as claimed, BARC has maintained that it stands by its assessment. Indian scientists had claimed after the test that the thermonuclear device gave a total yield of 45 KT, 15 KT from the fission trigger and 30 KT from the fusion process and that the theoretical yield of the device (200 KT) was reduced to 45 KT in order to minimise seismic damage to villages near the test range.
British experts, however, later challenged the claims saying that the actual combined yield for the fission device and thermonuclear bomb was not more than 20 KT.

Key Pokharan scientist R Chidambaram had described these reports as incorrect. He has also argued that computer simulations would be enough in future design.

 

[dvk1982]

Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist​

The 1998 Pokhran II nuclear tests might have been far from the success they have been claimed to be. The yield of the thermonuclear
explosions was actually much below expectations and the tests were perhaps more a fizzle rather than a big bang.
The controversy over the yield of the tests, previously questioned by foreign agencies, has been given a fresh lease of life with K Santhanam, senior scientist and DRDO representative at Pokhran II, admitting for the first time that the only thermonuclear device tested was a "fizzle". In nuclear parlance, a test is described as a fizzle when it fails to meet the desired yield.

Santhanam, who was director for 1998 test site preparations, told TOI on Monday that the yield for the thermonuclear test, or hydrogen bomb in popular usage, was much lower than what was claimed. Santhanam, who was DRDO's chief advisor, could well have opened up the debate on whether or not India should sign CTBT as claims that India has all the data required and can manage with simulations is bound to be called into question.

``Based upon the seismic measurements and expert opinion from world over, it is clear that the yield in the thermonuclear device test was much lower than what was claimed. I think it is well documented and that is why I assert that India should not rush into signing the CTBT,'' Santhanam told TOI on Wednesday.

He emphasised the need for India to conduct more tests to improve its nuclear weapon programme.

The test was said to have yielded 45 kilotons (KT) but was challenged by western experts who said it was not more than 20 KT.

The exact yield of the thermonuclear explosion is important as during the heated debate on the India-

US nuclear deal, it was strenuously argued by the government's top scientists that no more tests were required for the weapons programme. It was said the disincentives the nuclear deal imposed on testing would not really matter as further tests were not required.

According to security expert Bharat Karnad, Santhanam's admission is remarkable because this is the first time a nuclear scientist and one closely associated with the 1998 tests has disavowed the government line. ``He is not just saying that India should not sign the CTBT, which I believe is completely against India's interests, but also that the 1998 thermonuclear device test was inadequate.

His saying this means that the government has to do something. Either you don't have a thermonuclear deterrent or prove that you have it, if you claim to have it,'' said Karnad.

Sources said that Santhanam had admitted that the test was a fizzle during a discussion on CTBT organised by IDSA. Karnad also participated in the seminar. He told TOI that no country has succeeded in achieving targets with only its first test of a thermonuclear device.

``Two things are clear; that India should not sign CTBT and that it needs more thermonuclear device tests,'' said Santhanam.

The yield of the thermonuclear device test in 1998 has led to much debate and while western experts have stated that it was not as claimed, BARC has maintained that it stands by its assessment. Indian scientists had claimed after the test that the thermonuclear device gave a total yield of 45 KT, 15 KT from the fission trigger and 30 KT from the fusion process and that the theoretical yield of the device (200 KT) was reduced to 45 KT in order to minimise seismic damage to villages near the test range.
British experts, however, later challenged the claims saying that the actual combined yield for the fission device and thermonuclear bomb was not more than 20 KT.

Key Pokharan scientist R Chidambaram had described these reports as incorrect. He has also argued that computer simulations would be enough in future design.

I alwasy thought seriously hw come US and Russia and other Nuclear states test their Nuclear weapons 10s of times if not hundreds .. and we with just one Hydrogen bomb test declare that our fusion bomb is successful !! i agree technology has improved , still even if were successful, it sud be only rudimentary....

Computer similations come when we have mastered different manageable payloads

 

[Peshwa]

I am glad that at least India is moving towards making the Govt. and its ogranizations accountable for the Tax Payers dollars.....

These kind of reports will only help avoid delays, back logs such as LCA, Arjun etc....

Whether the report is credible or not....at least the people of India know where they stand.....Im glad this report surfaced!!

 

[xebex]

so can we expect another test or will it be a simulation?

 

[Gabbar]

^^^ I doubt there will be another test. Too much is at stake to conduct another test. We dont need to conduct another test when western world is openig it's doors to us for thier technology. World knows that we have the nukes and it should be enough to keep any aggresion at the bay.

 

[Patriot]

CTBT treaty is pure bullshit.Now that Russia and US has tested all weapons they have introduced CTBT treaty.Benazir Bhutto was thinking about signing CTBT too in her era to improve Pakistan International Image also to get F-16 but thankfully our scientists wrote to Service Chief's, Core Commanders and a couple of senior scientists resigned in protests.Her government was dismissed after that by President..

 

[graphican]

@Gabbar;

What you said makes sense but India has more than one enemies around its borders and two of them are Nuclear Powers. Pakistan has tested only nuclear weapons so far so not to worry in case of Pakistan. But China is capable of launching thermonuclear weapons. If you analyze India's defense patterns, you would see India is not preparing against Pakistan but they are building muscles to face China. To counter thermonuclear attack, India needs to have thermonuclear capability.

Signing CTBT is just like loosing virginity. if you loss it once, you've lost it for all times. So seems like it would be really hard decision for India either ways.

 

[New Vision]

Forget about India testing again, there is no way that is happening, India has put itself in a corner.I dont understand the mindset, if they knew at the onset that the goals were not achieved, they knew Pakistan would test , that wold take a few weeks, the heat was on on India, they should have played it a bit longer, sorted out the issues and tested again. I really dont understand the haste ,especially since it took guts to do what they did in the first place. As a general statement I would say, the world knows India has potential and talent, but its mindset and guts thats lacking, this is where the Pakistanis are different. A good mix of both would have a joint India Pakistan a force to reckon with. Alas......

 

[Gabbar]

Signing CTBT is just like loosing virginity. if you loss it once, you've lost it for all times. So seems like it would be really hard decision for India either ways.

I like your analogy.​

 

[Khajur]

K Santhanam, senior scientist was DRDO representative at Pokhran II, who is obviously not a nuclear scientist.

I would rather go by BARC version over the matter.

After Pokhran II, india put permanent moratorium over nuclear tests and also made a commitment to no further test befor signing Nuclear deal with US.

If Thermo nuclear test were complete failure,i dont think we had been bold enough to make this sort of commitments.

I think instead of saying, Thermo nuclear test comple failure ,its more likely that the test werent 100% success.

And if they werent successful, they could have easily denied that they conducted any thermo nuclear tests and would've acted more cautiously keeping strategic needs of the future in the mind.

 

[SEAL]

New Delhi, Aug.27 (ANI): A senior scientist and DRDO representative at Pokhran II has admitted for the first time that the May 1998 nuclear tests may not have been as successful as has been projected.

K Santhanam, who was director for 1998 test site preparations, told the Times of India in an interview that the yield of thermonuclear explosions was actually much below expectations and the tests were perhaps more a fizzle rather than a big bang.

In nuclear parlance, a test is described as a fizzle when it fails to meet the desired yield.

Santhanam said the yield for the thermonuclear test, or hydrogen bomb in popular usage, was much lower than what was claimed. Santhanam also said that given this fact, India should not rush into signing the CTBT.

He emphasized the need for India to conduct more tests to improve its nuclear weapon programme.

The test was said to have yielded 45 kilotons (KT) but was challenged by western experts who said it was not more than 20 KT.

The exact yield of the thermonuclear explosion is important as during the heated debate on the India- US nuclear deal, it was strenuously argued by the government’s top scientists that no more tests were required for the weapons programme. It was said the disincentives the nuclear deal imposed on testing would not really matter as further tests were not required.

According to security expert Bharat Karnad, Santhanam’s admission is remarkable because this is the first time a nuclear scientist and one closely associated with the 1998 tests has disavowed the government line.

“This means the government has to do something. Either you don’t have a thermonuclear deterrent or prove that you have it, if you claim to have it,’ said Karnad.

The yield of the thermonuclear device test in 1998 has led to much debate and while western experts have stated that it was not as claimed, BARC has maintained that it stands by its assessment.

Indian scientists had claimed after the test that the thermonuclear device gave a total yield of 45 KT, 15 KT from the fission trigger and 30 KT from the fusion process and that the theoretical yield of the device (200 KT) was reduced to 45 KT in order to minimise seismic damage to villages near the test range.

British experts, however, later challenged the claims saying that the actual combined yield for the fission device and thermonuclear bomb was not more than 20 KT. (ANI)India must not sign CTBT as Pokhran II was not fully successful, says DRDO scientist

 

[blueoval79]

I think you forgot to click on the link to the news refuting Scintists claim...

'Santhanam wrong on Pokhran II N-test'- TIMESNOW.tv - Latest Breaking News, Big News Stories, News Videos
'Santhanam wrong on Pokhran II N-test'
27 Aug 2009, 1048 hrs IST
The Indian security establishment on Thursday (August 27) reacted with dismay to suggestions by top nuclear scientist K Santhanam that India's Pokhran II nuclear test was a failure. Brajesh Mishra, the Former National Security Advisor in the NDA regime under Atal Behari Vajpayee rejected top nuclear scientist K Santhanam's charges that Pokhran II was unsuccessful.

Speaking to TIMES NOW, the former NSA contradicts the senior scientist and DRDO representative's admission that the Pokhran II tests in 1998 might have been far from the success, they have been claimed to be.

He said, "Dr APJ Abdul Kalam who was scientific advisor to the Defence Minister in 1998 had openly said that the nuclear test in Pokharan in 1998 was enough and we could sign the Indo-US Nuclear deal. Dr Santhanam was working directly under Dr Kalam and both were present when Pokharan took place. That should answer any questions about the test."

However, Santhanam continues to stand by his remark on the nuclear test. In an exclusive conversation with TIMES NOW, K Santhanam has said that the yield of the thermonuclear explosions were actually much below expectations and the tests were perhaps more a fizzle rather than a big bang.

He said, "Based upon the seismic measurements and expert opinion from world over, it is clear that the yield in the thermonuclear device test was much lower than what was claimed. I think it is well documented and that is why I assert that India should not rush into signing the CTBT."

Sources claim that Santhanam had admitted that the test was a fizzle during a discussion on CTBT organised by IDSA.

K Santhanam has also emphasised the need for India to conduct more tests to improve its nuclear weapon programme. The test was said to have yielded 45 kilotons but was challenged by western experts who said it was not more than 20 KT.

Meanwhile, sources within the Defence Ministry said that India has a meaningful number of nuclear weapons and an effective delivery system to go with it. Sources also said that as a result, India has a nuclear deterrent that is adequate for its security.

The exact yield of the thermonuclear explosion is important as during the heated debate on the India-US nuclear deal, it was argued by the government's top scientists that no more tests were required for the weapons programme. It was said the disincentives the nuclear deal imposed on testing would not really matter as further tests were not required.

India conducted 5 nuclear tests at the Pokhran test range, three of which were conducted on May 11 and two on May 13, 1998. The team which conducted tests was headed by Rajagopala Chidambaram and the Device was developed at the Defence Research and Development Organisation or DRDO's Terminal Ballistics Research Laboratory.

 

[SEAL]

First one is right.

 

[Khajur]

"nuclear scientist K Santhanam's charges that Pokhran II was unsuccessful."

I heard his interview on Times Now channel.
First of all he isnt any "nuclear scientist " and he was part of DRDO team who prepared the devides not the Bomb.

Its the BARC who in charge of making nuclear weapons and its testing.

Secondly, he was only quoting the foreign sessmic reports on Pokhran II results which he had done many times in the past and shed no personal insight about the actual results though he was present at the site.
In anycase he wouldnt have access to the classified actual results.

 

[Spring Onion]

Defence Ministry rejects scientist's stand on Pokhran II

The Defence Ministry on Thursday rejected senior DRDO scientist K Santhanam’s assertion that the 1998 Pokhran II nuclear tests were not fully successful, adding that India has a meaningful number of nuclear weapons and an effective delivery system to go with it.

Sources in the ministry told a TV channel that India has a nuclear deterrent that is adequate for its security.

K Santhanam, who was director for 1998 test site preparations, had said in an interview that the yield of thermonuclear explosions was actually much below expectations and the tests were perhaps more a fizzle rather than a big bang.

In nuclear parlance, a test is described as a fizzle when it fails to meet the desired yield.

Santhanam said the yield for the thermonuclear test, or hydrogen bomb in popular usage, was much lower than what was claimed. Santhanam also said that given this fact, India should not rush into signing the CTBT.

He emphasized the need for India to conduct more tests to improve its nuclear weapon programme.

The test was said to have yielded 45 kilotons (KT) but was challenged by western experts who said it was not more than 20 KT.
According to security expert Bharat Karnad, Santhanam's admission is remarkable because this is the first time a nuclear scientist and one closely associated with the 1998 tests has disavowed the government line.

“This means the government has to do something. Either you don't have a thermonuclear deterrent or prove that you have it, if you claim to have it,'' said Karnad.

The yield of the thermonuclear device test in 1998 has led to much debate and while western experts have stated that it was not as claimed, BARC has maintained that it stands by its assessment.

Indian scientists had claimed after the test that the thermonuclear device gave a total yield of 45 KT, 15 KT from the fission trigger and 30 KT from the fusion process and that the theoretical yield of the device (200 KT) was reduced to 45 KT in order to minimise seismic damage to villages near the test range.

British experts, however, later challenged the claims saying that the actual combined yield for the fission device and thermonuclear bomb was not more than 20 KT.

Sources claim that Santhanam had admitted that the test was a fizzle during a discussion on CTBT organized by IDSA.

India conducted five nuclear tests at the Pokhran test range. Three of them were conducted on May 11 and two on May 13, 1998.

Rajagopala Chidambaram headed the team, which conducted tests, and the device was developed at the Defence Research and Development Organization’s Ballistics Research Laboratory.
The exact yield of the thermonuclear explosion is important as during the heated debate on the India-

US nuclear deal, it was strenuously argued by the government's top scientists that no more tests were required for the weapons programme. It was said the disincentives the nuclear deal imposed on testing would not really matter as further tests were not required.

Defence Ministry rejects scientist's stand on Pokhran II