Point mobilization of decisive force (terrain, vastness, manpower constraints)

[Pak Nationalist]

If you are observing the developments in Balochistan that is around 42% of Pakistan's total landmass, you would be able to recognize a pattern. That pattern entails insurgents being able to strike at will, at a tactically advantageous point, and at times with an overwhelming projection of force (recent overrunning of 9 Baloch's post resulting in 10 fatalities from the regular army by dozens of insurgents). The reason is that forces paint a large target on their back in such a terrain due to their visibility when compared to insurgents. Their deployment is mostly also static and isolated, and hence mobilization of an overpowering insurgent force alongside good reconnaissance of the target is all that takes to either subject forces to unacceptable levels of attrition or in some instances completely overrun the said positions. So, one could comfortably argue that the insurgents seem to be winning the game when it comes to mobilizing an overwhelming force and reconnaissance of their intended target because they do not have to focus on holding ground by delegating their manpower to static positions. The question is how could the vastness of the terrain, numerical constraints be overcome in a dedicated operational doctrine for fighting the insurgency in Balochistan to effect quick and decisive mobilization of troops/force in an area that has been identified to be of high concern?

In broad strokes, any mobilization would be preceded by a reconnaissance effort which again requires aerial surveillance, human intelligence, electronic and signals intelligence that could pinpoint the concentrations of hostiles either in the mountains or within settlements strewn across the most troubled districts of Balochistan.

After receipt of watertight intelligence that establishes the presence of hostiles, then comes to time to project force in the said area to neutralize the hostiles. Force projection could employ less costly and dangerous options like drones OR putting boots on the ground using aviation assets (or other transportation means depending upon the distances). The emergence of remote-controlled killing machines has bestowed a great equalizer to their users in similar conflicts who are up against the constraints of geography, the vastness of the terrain, and manpower mobilization. It is tailor-built for addressing our vulnerabilities, if only we could establish the ancillary infrastructure to support it near the conflict zones.

The best defense in Balochistan too is an offense. Take out the threat before it is able to metastasize and manifest itself in a time and place of its choosing where it enjoys a tactical and numerical advantage. By that time, we know now, it is already too late. As one could notice, any successful counterinsurgency campaign in such conditions can NEVER be successful without a complimentary intelligence effort, therefore, investment in over the horizon and ground-based intelligence gathering (image, signals, electronic) capabilities is utterly indispensable. It is even more important than the kinetic aspects of COIN. Capabilities honed in Balochistan could undoubtedly be put to use along the Afghan border and tribal districts of KPK as well.

As for the defense of static installations that "hold/control" swathes of territory, I would leave that subject for discussion under the same thread for more knowledgeable members.

Note: Please try to remain within the confines of this thread's subject matter and try not to digress or allow others to detract from a directed discussion.

 

[Silverblaze]

I agree. Hope I try to explain myself as coherent as possible.

But certain things must be done before a comprehensive intelligence system is employed. The narrative being projected of 'baloch rebels' must be changed. It is better to present them as simply terrorists or may be hindutva terrorists as their ethnicity must not be necessarily highlighted. The reasons are well known.

Now, I would slightly disagree as intelligence should not be complimentary. It is the military muscle that should be complimentary or dare I say subordinate to a large intelligence network.

Take the example of FSB of russia. It is essentially an intelligence agency with its own special forces, and border troops. From counter intelligence to stopping smuggling, they deal with everything and are directly answerable to Putin.

We have 2 options.

FC could become a fully fledge intelligence agency with its own ground forces ,air and naval wings and from border to internal control everything could be done by them.

Or second option (if someone's ego gets hurt in islamabad)- FC after being augmented as a full fledged combatant command with naval, air and ground troops can be handed over to ISI from the Ministry of interior. ISI could become FSB and all of the rangers and FCs can be directly governed by them.

Advantages are coordination and real time intelligence available to ground troops and direct access to federal govt to the border areas in terms of intelligence. These provincial CTDs are not seem to be working.

 

[Titanium100]

You are making more out of it then it actully is..

Balochistan is not technically an active front nor is Kpk but it is an extremely low level insurgency they hit a check-point once a month etc etc..

There is no conventional entity in both BL and Kpk but what you see is ppl hidden deep inside the civilian population who can only lash out once or twice a month against low level targets....

 

[Sayfullah]

1) make levies part of FC give them FC level training and equipment
2) complete pak Iran border fence
3) any levies or police check posts on sensitive roads or highways in Balochistan near Iranian border should be under FC control
4) proper surveillance assets flying over pak iran border
5) in known hotspots of Balochistan give troops more fire power and if they can give them mraps and increase drones flying over known hotspots
6) end all smuggling in pak Iran border no excuses
7) crackdown on locals who support these terrorists and crack down on sardars who support it
8) increase Balochistan’s population and start developing new cities particularly costal cities like Hub, Gaddani, Ormara, Pasni etc etc
9) strengthen human intel in Balochistan. Have agents in regions close to the border to monitor movement and to detect any terrorist movement if it happens
10) continue hitting terrorist commanders in Afghanistan and Iran
11) crackdown on snakes in Pakistan (before bla attack happened ptm snakes with manzoor pashteen went Balochistan to do his rally and they did aerial firing after which helped create distraction for bla to carry out its attacks)
12) increase the number of baloch in our armed forces. The more baloch in our armed forces the weaker the insurgency gets because the higher the chance anyone with separatist and terrorist ideas has a relative in the army so they can’t join terror movements.
13) develop industries in Balochistan and have a comprehensive plan to better integrate Balochistan with Pakistan and end poverty there. Heavily developing mining sector and value addition work for it.
14) support separatist movements deep inside India. Fight this war in enemy territory don’t give you enemy time to attack you in your own territory.
15) break Balochistan down into 2 or 3 new provinces. Example: Makran province, Sulaimania province and, Bolan and Rakhshan province

These are just some of the ideas I can think of to end insurgency in Balochistan permanently

 

[Pak Nationalist]

You are making more out of it then it actully is..

Balochistan is not technically an active front nor is Kpk but it is an extremely low level insurgency they hit a check-point once a month etc etc..

There is no conventional entity in both BL and Kpk but what you see is ppl hidden deep inside the civilian population who can only lash out once or twice a month against low level targets....

It stopped being that this year. Time to see the writing on the wall. 2 coordinated attacks on key FC installations in the interior Balochistan and overrunning a regular military manned post are telling signs of things to come. It is best to agree on the gravity of the situation before any fruitful discussion could be had.

 

[Pak Nationalist]

I agree. Hope I try to explain myself as coherent as possible.

But certain things must be done before a comprehensive intelligence system is employed. The narrative being projected of 'baloch rebels' must be changed. It is better to present them as simply terrorists or may be hindutva terrorists as their ethnicity must not be necessarily highlighted. The reasons are well known.

Now, I would slightly disagree as intelligence should not be complimentary. It is the military muscle that should be complimentary or dare I say subordinate to a large intelligence network.

Take the example of FSB of russia. It is essentially an intelligence agency with its own special forces, and border troops. From counter intelligence to stopping smuggling, they deal with everything and are directly answerable to Putin.

We have 2 options.

FC could become a fully fledge intelligence agency with its own ground forces ,air and naval wings and from border to internal control everything could be done by them.

Or second option (if someone's ego gets hurt in islamabad)- FC after being augmented as a full fledged combatant command with naval, air and ground troops can be handed over to ISI from the Ministry of interior. ISI could become FSB and all of the rangers and FCs can be directly governed by them.

Advantages are coordination and real time intelligence available to ground troops and direct access to federal govt to the border areas in terms of intelligence. These provincial CTDs are not seem to be working.

I think Balochistan is a black hole. We do not enough human and material resources to do what you are suggesting for a region with 36 people per sq km population density. What you need is more reliance on technology (both for actionable intelligence gathering and strike role), nimbleness, and mobility of forces in my humble view. It would on the one hand prepare your security forces by building critical capacity for 21st-century warfare and on the other might even free up both human and material resources for use along the Eastern theatre.

 

[Silverblaze]

I think Balochistan is a black hole. We do not enough human and material resources to do what you are suggesting for a region with 36 people per sq km population density. What you need is more reliance on technology (both for actionable intelligence gathering and strike role), nimbleness, and mobility of forces in my humble view. It would on the one hand prepare your security forces by building critical capacity for 21st-century warfare and on the other might even free up both human and material resources.

I am in complete agreement on using tech. May be I didnt make my point clear. I am more interested in changing the power structure of LEAs that govern that area. We will need resources anyways whether to expand our intelligence network and introducing tech.

That is why i gave the example of FSB. They are monitoring the largest country in the world with smart policies and acquiring resources.

Point is FC needs more resources whether in tech or boots on ground. A sizeable force with modern intelligence surveillance equipment and appropriate naval and aerial assets but governed directly by an intelligence agency will do the job in my opinion. Like you said a precision strike force acting on actionable intelligence to strike targets before they proceed with an attack.

Toyota hilux and ak47 is not going to work.

I agree completely with you that Sindh and KP is next if this doesn't stop. Pakistani elite as usual is as clueless as they were in the Kashmir war in 47. Totally reactive and waiting for things to happen.

Pakistani elite's attitude will determine the future.

I find Pakistani elite extremely arrogant ,egotistical and corrupt but the reality is I dont think they are capable enough get their house in order keep doing theatrics, some people like me in and out of the country would have no choice but to ask for Chinese troops to be deployed in Balochistan and some parts of KP and we shouldn't care if anyone gets upset.

 

[Pak Nationalist]

I am in complete agreement on using tech. May be I didnt make my point clear. I am more interested in changing the power structure of LEAs that govern that area. We will need resources anyways whether to expand our intelligence network and introducing tech.

That is why i gave the example of FSB. They are monitoring the largest country in the world with smart policies and acquiring resources.

Point is FC needs more resources whether in tech or boots on ground. A sizeable force with modern intelligence surveillance equipment and appropriate naval and aerial assets but governed directly by an intelligence agency will do the job in my opinion. Like you said a precision strike force acting on actionable intelligence to strike targets before they proceed with an attack.

Toyota hilux and ak47 is not going to work.

I agree completely with you that Sindh and KP is next if this doesn't stop. Pakistani elite as usual is as clueless as they were in the Kashmir war in 47. Totally reactive and waiting for things to happen.

Pakistani elite's attitude will determine the future.

I find Pakistani elite extremely arrogant ,egotistical and corrupt but the reality is I dont think they are capable enough get their house in order keep doing theatrics, some people like me in and out of the country would have no choice but to ask for Chinese troops to be deployed in Balochistan and some parts of KP and we shouldn't care if anyone gets upset.

Deployment of Chinese troops is not an option. Not that there would be sovereignty issues (which surely there would) or geopolitical ramifications, but the simple fact that Chinese do not fancy fighting on foreign soil.

Building capability of FC to that scale would be time-consuming and costly. Special forces within FC can be developed as the Indians have done with CRPF in insurgency-stricken states.

My bone of contention with raising a completely new intelligence setup or making large-scale organizational changes is that when you have existing institutions that have the rudimentary infrastructure, understanding of intelligence work, why not then build the capacity of these institutions for effective signals, electronic, over the horizon intelligence gathering?

An important question we should be asking is that are these terrorists roaming around in the mountains of Balochistan waiting for their opportunity to strike OR are they crossing the Iranian and Afghan borders to launch attacks and then retreat back to their sanctuaries across the border. If it is the latter, the solutions to this situation would also change. I think it is a mix of the two cases. Do note that most hardcore attacks are limited to outlying districts with proximity to both Afghanistan and Iran. Attacks in Bolan are an exception since Bolan is pretty inland in Balochistan's landmass. However, the mountainous terrain there is tailor-made for typical hit-and-run guerilla-style attacks.

 

[Gangetic]

Give China a naval base where they can park an aircraft carrier in Omara and spend less on the navy, with the lower budget and Chinese payment for the base, you'll probably have $2-3 billion a year to spend freely. Spend that money on an MRAP, drone and other surveillance and military equipment programme and mass produce them. That would be a good short term solution.

 

[Pak Nationalist]

Give China a naval base where they can park an aircraft carrier in Omara and spend less on the navy, with the lower budget and Chinese payment for the base, you'll probably have $2-3 billion a year to spend freely. Spend that money on an MRAP, drone and other surveillance and military equipment programme and mass produce them. That would be a good short term solution.

Why are Pakistanis willing to surrender sovereignty and independence at the drop of a hat? This is a defeatist mentality. If only we apply ourselves to these security challenges and divert resources (both intellectual and material) where required, we can overcome them. Why do we need protection from other states?

 

[Gangetic]

Why are Pakistanis willing to surrender sovereignty and independence at the drop of a hat? This is a defeatist mentality. If only we apply ourselves to these security challenges and divert resources (both intellectual and material) where required, we can overcome them. Why do we need protection from other states?

Pakistan doesn't have the economy nor manpower nor resources to take on India, Afghanistan and Iran all by itself. It's like asking why the Poles have American bases in their country, because if they didn't, then they'd have to have 10% of their GDP in military spending to deter Russia.

 

[Pak Nationalist]

Pakistan doesn't have the economy nor manpower nor resources to take on India, Afghanistan and Iran all by itself. It's like asking why the Poles have American bases in their country, because if they didn't, then they'd have to have 10% of their GDP in military spending to deter Russia.

No permanent friends in real politik.

 

[Pak Nationalist]

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/why-is-chahbahar-not-burning.734583/ @The Eagle, you should not have closed this thread. I wanted to engage these Iranians, couldn't do so because I was busy with some stuff. This is a Pakistani forum and the victimhood complex of Iranians has to be deconstructed when they bring it up.