Not exactly a huge victory although it's no surprise that it's being spun as such. Vote of confidence is of course a big step, I'm sure their members were harried outside of parliament, corralled and beseeched alike, and threatened that they'd have the parliamentary whip withdrawn among other consequences for those that did not comply. On the other hand, a defeat would have been disastrous and unlikely at this stage.
In truth the last few days have shown that the government has been panicking, the container style speech IK gave, the ordinance and confidence vote, these are not the kind of steps taken by confident and comfortable incumbents, they've been shaken a bit and they're trying desperately to nip this opposition game in the bud. But it won't end here. If the establishment continues this neutral approach, there are loads of ways to cause upsets here and there. Some of those who defected the ranks in Gillani's election were promised a ticket in any upcoming election, people like that don't tend to fear the whip, they may fear what the establishment says, but nothing their own party might do.
Parliamentary arithmetic is the same, the senate shake up is still coming. My next guess for what's to come is, more government crackdown, including arrests of key opposition leaders, NAB being activated once more, but that is a game that will lead to more agitation and opposition rallying. Opposition are this stage are probably very confident, the big challenge ahead of them is how they can accommodate defectors from PTI's ranks, and what they might agree upon post future vote of no confidence. In plain words, Nawaz and Zardari will need to come to some sort of understanding on what a future election will be like, who gives whom party tickets to former PTI members and where, this is easier said than done. However, if the establishment steps back in, all this will be delayed again, and we'll go back to PDM rallies where anti-establishment rhetoric is abound and street agitation is the method. If the PDM succeeds however, there could be some powerplays and conflicts between PPP and PMLN.
If the PDM can agree on a way forward, if the establishment doesn't back IK openly and fully, then at the time of their choosing PDM can activate a no confidence vote, and it's very likely that they will not lose that future vote, and Imran's will have to go. As for IK, even if he starts losing, he may have a few last nuclear options in his arsenal, I wonder if he'll exercise them and how. The next few months will be interesting.
