Army holds fire in hope court will axe government
Ben Doherty
January 14, 2012
MILITARY sources have ruled out an army-led coup in Pakistan but there is a growing sense in the country that an activist Supreme Court, hostile to the government, could bring down the civilian leadership.
''There will be no coup,'' a senior military officer told the Herald on condition of anonymity. ''The hype is there, but that kind of move will not happen now. Not now.''
Still, Pakistan is on tenterhooks this weekend, bracing for the next move in the increasingly ill-tempered spat between the elected civilian leadership and the country's powerful military, headed by General Ashfaq Kayani.
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The President, Asif Ali Zardari, returned to Pakistan yesterday morning, having left the country for Dubai for less than 24 hours, either to attend a wedding or for a medical check-up, according to varying reports. His sudden departure on Thursday, for the second time in a month, sparked rumours of an impending coup.
The Prime Minister, Yousuf Raza Gilani, has called a meeting today of the cabinet's defence committee, which General Kayani is obliged to attend. The meeting is being seen as an attempt at reconciliation, but could backfire on the Prime Minister given the outright contempt General Kayani has shown for his government.
General Kayani has already warned of ''serious ramifications with potentially grievous consequences for the country'' - an unsubtle threat of a coup - as the schism over the so-called ''memogate'' affair, which sparked the current crisis, worsens.
In October, an anonymous memo was made public, allegedly sent to the US government in the days following Osama bin Laden's assassination on Pakistani soil, offering to rein in the Pakistani army's influence and disband those brigades co-operating with terrorists, in exchange for American support against a military coup. The army believes the note was authorised - if not written - by Mr Zardari, and regards it as a treasonous betrayal of the country.
A three-member judicial panel investigating the memo will resume hearings on Monday.
On the same day, a separate Supreme Court bench will convene to hear the government explain why it failed to comply with the court's earlier orders to restart corruption investigations against Mr Zardari.
The court is seen as openly hostile to the government and it is widely believed it will try to dislodge Pakistan's civilian leaders ''by constitutional means''.
''The Prime Minister is not an honest man and violated his oath,'' the court said in its order this week over the stalled Zardari investigation. The court's activism is seen as the major reason why the army remains in barracks.
''The Supreme Court is flexing its muscles and the government is flexing its muscles. We will see who is stronger,'' the military source said.
While the army wants the government gone, it is reluctant to launch a coup because it does not want to be left with the responsibility of running Pakistan.
Losing the presidency could have serious ramifications for Mr Zardari. If deposed, he faces the threat of investigation into allegations he took millions of dollars in kickbacks on state contracts, when his late wife, Benazir Bhutto, was prime minister.
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Army holds fire in hope court will axe government