Persian Gulf may soon be too hot for human life, climate simulation shows

[Lux de Veritas]

Persian Gulf may soon be too hot for human life, climate simulation shows — RT News

Now a notoriously oil-rich region, the Persian Gulf might become uninhabitable by the next century under the current global warming trends. It is thought that they will create humid heat conditions at a level incompatible with human existence, a new study reveals.
According to research published in the journal Nature Climate Change, the heat generated by greenhouse gas emissions would create conditions in the Gulf where a healthy person would not be unable to maintain a normal body temperature.

“Our results expose a specific regional hot spot where climate change, in the absence of significant [carbon cuts], is likely to severely impact human habitability in the future,” said Jeremy Pal and Elfatih Eltahir of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

The scientists used climate computer models to come up with the extreme future weather scenarios, which based on current global warming trends, predict summer temperatures of up to 60 degrees Celsius (140 degrees Fahrenheit) in Kuwait City.

Such temperatures, researchers warn could “become hazardous to human health," especially for the elderly, as the human body would be incapable of maintaining body temperature.

Research explains that human body could adapt to extreme “dry-bulb” heat through sweating but would struggle if the“wet-bulb” temperature, a combination of heat and humidity, breaches the threshold of +35 degrees Celsius.

Once high heat and humidity reaches a certain level, “the body is no longer able to cool itself and begins to overheat,” Pal told journalists. Out in the open and without air conditioning, a person could only stay out in the sun for six hours, at most, before their body began shut down.

Researchers believe that the Gulf’s geographical position will result in such unlivable moist-but-hot conditions. Authors said that under these circumstances, the annual Muslim pilgrimage to Mecca would become life-threatening and almost impossible to undertake by the year 2100. Industrial activities such as construction would also become hazardous to humans, the authors said.

 

[Talwar e Pakistan]

Persian Gulf may soon be too hot for human life, climate simulation shows — RT News

Now a notoriously oil-rich region, the Persian Gulf might become uninhabitable by the next century under the current global warming trends. It is thought that they will create humid heat conditions at a level incompatible with human existence, a new study reveals.
According to research published in the journal Nature Climate Change, the heat generated by greenhouse gas emissions would create conditions in the Gulf where a healthy person would not be unable to maintain a normal body temperature.

“Our results expose a specific regional hot spot where climate change, in the absence of significant [carbon cuts], is likely to severely impact human habitability in the future,” said Jeremy Pal and Elfatih Eltahir of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

The scientists used climate computer models to come up with the extreme future weather scenarios, which based on current global warming trends, predict summer temperatures of up to 60 degrees Celsius (140 degrees Fahrenheit) in Kuwait City.

Such temperatures, researchers warn could “become hazardous to human health," especially for the elderly, as the human body would be incapable of maintaining body temperature.

Research explains that human body could adapt to extreme “dry-bulb” heat through sweating but would struggle if the“wet-bulb” temperature, a combination of heat and humidity, breaches the threshold of +35 degrees Celsius.

Once high heat and humidity reaches a certain level, “the body is no longer able to cool itself and begins to overheat,” Pal told journalists. Out in the open and without air conditioning, a person could only stay out in the sun for six hours, at most, before their body began shut down.

Researchers believe that the Gulf’s geographical position will result in such unlivable moist-but-hot conditions. Authors said that under these circumstances, the annual Muslim pilgrimage to Mecca would become life-threatening and almost impossible to undertake by the year 2100. Industrial activities such as construction would also become hazardous to humans, the authors said.

What about AC?

 

[Royal Kathiyawadi]

Pakistan and India You are Next **Evil Smirk**

also Europe, Get Ready for more Climate Refugees :p

 

[Cossack25A1]

If this is true, then the rich Arab and other rich Middle Eastern countries could create what would eventually become "dome cities".

 

[raptor22]

In Kerman desert we've experienced 71C , is it gonna be worse than this?

 

[Saif al-Arab]

I highly doubt that it will end this badly. The earth's climate has been changing rapidly. Our earth is apparently 4.5 billion (!) years old if my memory serves me right. The climate of the Arabian Peninsula and Middle East has changed many times. Not long ago (8000-6000 years ago) most of the Arabian Peninsula was a jungle. Even during the time of Prophet Muhammad (saws) much more of the Arabian Peninsula was tropical. In pre-Islamic times the Greeks, Romans, Egyptians etc. also wrote about large rivers and lakes on the Arabian Peninsula. Here we are talking about less than 4000 years ago.

Also today we have so much more knowledge than in the old days. It is now possible to actively combat decertification and desalination also becomes more and more advanced. I think that it can be turned around and if not nature's natural cycles will work their magic as usual.

Besides this article mostly focuses on the Gulf region and this means Eastern Arabia, Southern Iraq and Southwestern Iran. This is also where the hottest temperatures are recorded in the ME during the summer. I doubt that the supposed changes will have such a drastic impact on the mountainous regions of the Arabian Peninsula and Iran. That is also why the article mentions Kuwait City and a city in Southwestern Iran (Khuzestan/Arabistan) called Bandar Mahshahr. Both located in that region I mentioned above.

"To date, no place on Earth has cross the redline of a deadly "wet-bulb temperature".

But on July 31 of this year, Bandar Mahshahr in Iran came very close, according to Christoph Schar, a scientist at the Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science at ETH Zurich."

Climate change in MidEast: Persian Gulf to be too hot for humans by 2100 - Daily Sabah

Green Arabia's key role in human evolution​

By Sylvia Smith

BBC News, Saudi Arabia

16 September 2015

From the section Science & Environment

Whilst the interior of the Arabian Peninsula is mainly dry today, it was once lush and green​

Scientists have been illuminating the vital role played by the Arabian Peninsula in humankind's exodus from Africa. Far from being a desert, the region was once covered by lush vegetation and criss-crossed by rivers, providing rich hunting grounds for our ancestors.

As the sun rises over a vast sand sea in the Arabian Peninsula its first rays illuminate a number of hand axes scattered over the surface of the arid desert.

Nearby, a team of international experts start their day's work picking up and examining remains that are putting a new gloss on the history of human occupation in the area and challenging previously-held theories.

For the first time, the technical expertise of scientists in varied disciplines including palaeontology, geochronology and mapping is being combined to take a holistic look at the role played by Saudi Arabia in the African exodus.

Recent finds are overturning long-held theories by moving it from the periphery right to the centre.

According to Prince Sultan bin Salman bin Abdulaziz, the first Arab to go into space and currently head of the Saudi Commission for Tourism and National Heritage, the multidisciplinary team have uncovered evidence that our human ancestors' first steps out of Africa were made 50,000 years earlier than was commonly believed.

"The Arabian Peninsula has witnessed dramatic changes in climate," he says.

"In the middle Pleistocene this encouraged early man to make for the then-green peninsula as his destination."

Scientists have mapped the ancient river systems that criss-crossed what is now desert​

Wet environment
New research by the international team of experts shows that the Peninsula had human settlements for long periods of time and was not merely a transit point, as was previously thought.

The teams have uncovered several settled periods of wet weather with numerous shifts in environments over the last million years.

One advantage of marrying diverse disciplines under one umbrella is that the various strands can be woven in to a comprehensive common story about the mutating Arabian environment and human history.

What appear to be large dried-up water courses when seen from the ground become major palaeo-rivers viewed from space.

Michael Petraglia, who heads the group and is professor of human evolution and prehistory at the School of Archaeology, Oxford University, says the multidisciplinary approach is paying off.

"Innovative space shuttle technology has allowed the mapping of over 10,000 lakes across Arabia including the now barren Nafud desert," he says.

"This finding links directly with the discovery of the remains of elephants, hippos, crocodile and molluscs at a couple of our sites in the Kingdom."

Prof Michael Petraglia is uncovering a rich history of settlement by early modern humans​

Exit plan
Indications are that the earliest lakes had fresh, potable water and were in some cases interconnected. The 50-strong team now believe that there were real routes for animals and humans to follow.

While the main routes into Arabia were from the Horn of Africa into south-west Arabia, the other was across the Sinai. From those two points it is believed that humans were following rivers into the interior.

Ali Ibrahim Al Ghabban, deputy director of the Saudi Commission on Tourism and National Heritage says that with no human skeletal remains in Arabia from the time ranges in question, human history depends on other evidence.

​

"[It is assessed] on the basis of similarities in stone technology between finds in Arabia and Africa," he says.

"It is reasonable to suppose that anatomically modern humans have been present in Arabia for at least 125,000 years, and possibly a little longer."

Most of the early sites consist of little more than stone tool scatters, and Prof Petraglia's team have unearthed hundreds of these implements fashioned for activities associated with hunting such as scraping skins.

This is a significant stage in human evolution with our forebears showing the ability to think ahead.

"It means that at this stage we are able to kill our prey more easily," says Prof Petraglia. "Working stone in this way indicates forethought and planning. It is also what we see in East Africa."

Among the group of experts are rock art specialists whose work, according to Ali Ibrahim Ghabban may well lead to yet more interesting results.

Rock art sites occur in central Saudi Arabia at the Jubbah palaeolake in the Hail region, where there is excellent evidence for Middle Palaeolithic sites along lake shores.

"These sites are of global importance," Ghabban says.

"They are the signatures of modern humans moving out of Africa."

Other field expeditions are looking into world-rated rock art sites in Jubbah, Shuwaymis, and Nejran, with finds examined in multiple laboratory studies.

Green Arabia's key role in human evolution - BBC News

Here below is an academic paper about this topic:

In Search of Green Arabia, by Andrew Lawler | Michael Petraglia - Academia.edu

Also this excellent article below is a must read on this topic:

Cooling a planet with Revegetation

German Landscape Architect Helps Green the Saudi Desert - SPIEGEL ONLINE

Allan Savory is a living genius. The UN and all local governments in the ME and in so many other regions of the world that face decertification should listen to him more.

​

Also moonson rains now only cover a small part of KSA, Yemen and Oman but just 2000 years ago the monsoon rains covered most of the Arabian Peninsula like they do in South Asia. That's the only climatical difference between those two areas of the world currently.

Moreover this tendency can be reversed.

This is also what the article "Cooling a Planet with Revegetation" notes.

Khareef - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

@Gasoline @Ahmed Jo @alarabi @JUBA @Frosty @Naifov @Metanoia etc. maybe this will interest you guys.

In Kerman desert we've experienced 71C , is it gonna be worse than this?

This temperature must have been measured in the sun because the world's highest ever recorded temperature in the shade was measured in the Death Valley (USA) in 1913.

The temperature back then measured 56.7 °C.

Here you can see more.

List of weather records - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Maybe you are thinking about the "heat index"?

Bandar Mahshahr in Iran experiences 'second hottest temperature ever' - Telegraph

Are you from Kerman? I never thought that it could be that hot there.

 

[Ahmed Jo]

highly doubt that it will end this badly. The earth's climate has been changing rapidly. Our earth is apparently 4.5 billion (!) years old if my memory serves me right. The climate of the Arabian Peninsula and Middle East has changed many times. Not long ago (8000-6000 years ago) most of the Arabian Peninsula was a jungle. Even during the time of Prophet Muhammad (saws) much more of the Arabian Peninsula was tropical. In pre-Islamic times the Greeks, Romans, Egyptians etc. also wrote about large rivers and lakes on the Arabian Peninsula. Here we are talking about less than 4000 years ago.

So then it is possible for the Arabian peninsula to eventually be inhospitable to human life, not soon but in 4000 years or so. With rapid climate change I don't see how that future can be avoided. Just the heat will make it too expensive to live in certain areas of the peninsula. Like I said though, this is a few thousand years from now. And maybe in a million years' time it will go full circle and become a tropical region.

This may seem stupid but I always wondered why the Arabian peninsula wasn't tropical like parts of Mexico, the Caribbean, and Central America since it's also on the Tropic of Cancer. Do you happen to know why?

Edit: I've seen the video and I kind of understand why now. There is very little 'hoard-grazing' done in the southern Middle East. That's my guess anyway.

 

[Schutz]

Its already too hot there, hence hiding indoors and covering yourself with sheets, nice n mild here today with some rain now, no natural disasters ever or heat, ahh love it

 

[xenon54 out]

Its already too hot there, hence hiding indoors and covering yourself with sheets, nice n mild here today with some rain now, no natural disasters ever or heat, ahh love it

Dont forget 2003 heat wave in Europe that killed thousands in France alone.

 

[Solomon2]

In Kerman desert we've experienced 71C , is it gonna be worse than this?

Isn't there a story about the Kerman, that in ancient times a hot wind flowing from it roasted an entire army to death?

 

[Saif al-Arab]

Its already too hot there, hence hiding indoors and covering yourself with sheets, nice n mild here today with some rain now, no natural disasters ever or heat, ahh love it

I have never seen you write a single intelligent post. Yes, British weather is world famous for being sunny, warm and pleasant.

When the water levels rise the tiny island that is the UK will go under water since it hardly has any mountains. Yuhu.

So then it is possible for the Arabian peninsula to eventually be inhospitable to human life, not soon but in 4000 years or so. With rapid climate change I don't see how that future can be avoided. Just the heat will make it too expensive to live in certain areas of the peninsula. Like I said though, this is a few thousand years from now. And maybe in a million years' time it will go full circle and become a tropical region.

This may seem stupid but I always wondered why the Arabian peninsula wasn't tropical like parts of Mexico, the Caribbean, and Central America since it's also on the Tropic of Cancer. Do you happen to know why?

Edit: I've seen the video and I kind of understand why now. There is very little 'hoard-grazing' done in the southern Middle East. That's my guess anyway.

The Arabian Peninsula was never inhospitable, nor is that the case today. In fact the Arabian Peninsula is home to some of the richest marine and bird life on the planet for instance and numerous other wildlife. In the ME I think that only Iran can rival it/is on the same level when it comes to animal life.

BBC for instance made an excellent several episodes and hours long documentary about the wildlife in the Arabian Peninsula called "Wild Arabia".

BBC Two - Wild Arabia, Introducing Wild Arabia

National Geographic as well.

Well, my post and links are able to answer your question.

Also the Southern and Northern Arabian Peninsula are geographically over 2500 km apart. That's a lot in terms of latitude. For instance the Northern parts of KSA are located as high "north" as Northern Jordan and Southern Syria. Also don't forget that most of Iraq, Jordan and Syria are part of the same Arabian Peninsula geographically speaking.

Actually most of Mexico is not tropical and parts of the Arabian Peninsula are tropical for many months throughout the year due to the Khareef (monsoon) as I wrote.

Khareef - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

But to answer your question very shortly. 1000's upon 1000's years of human agricultural activity (much, much, much longer than anywhere in Mexico, the Caribbean and in most places of the world), human activity (most of the jungles and forests were destroyed by humans or outright cut down for building materials) and this guy below.

Coriolis effect - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

There are other reasons as well which are described in depth below in the article called "Cooling a planet with Revegetation". This affects Jordan as well which also suffers from decertification as almost every ME country does.

Please see this article below. Almost all answers are found there. Very relevant for Jordan too.

Cooling a planet with Revegetation



@Ahmed Jo

Bro, also check this documentary out. Jordan is covered at the beginning.

People of the region should focus 100 times more on such challenges instead of getting fat, discussing the details of a 1350 old civil war or killing each other as cattle.

People are incredibly wasteful too and many use ancient farming techniques. It's like they WANT to mess up desperately. They need a slap with a stick to wake up! It's about time. There are no excuses anymore.

 

[Ahmed Jo]

Bro, also check this documentary out. Jordan is covered at the beginning.

Thanks. Isn't that guy saying what the person in the earlier video disproved? That is that grazing is what causes desertification. Grazing in masses is what is needed.

 

[Saif al-Arab]

Thanks. Isn't that guy saying what the person in the earlier video disproved? That is that grazing is what causes desertification. Grazing in masses is what is needed.

It's a combination of various factors obviously. Of past human activities, current ones (greenhouse gas omission etc.) and climatic cycles.

The good thing is that the trend can be reversed and that there are a few solutions which both the author of that article mentions, Allan Savory and John D. Liu.

That's why I don't buy the claims of the initial article posted, blindly. 50 years ago we heard similar stories of how area x and y of the planet would be inhospitable in year 2000 or year 2010.

 

[Ahmed Jo]

It's a combination of various factors obviously. Of past human activities, current ones (greenhouse gas omission etc.) and climatic cycles.

The good thing is that the trend can be changed and there are a few solutions which both the author of that article mentions, Allan Savory and John D. Liu.

Ineed, it's an exciting prospect. I hope my future career will deal with this issue in one way or another.

 

[ito]

In next 50 years, countries around the world will have to get ready for climate refuges especially from Gulf. Once I was in Abu Dhabi, it was so hot that I was thinking how people live here.