Pentagon tracking suspected Chinese spy balloon over the US

[epebble]

it's not a spy balloon, I think it's more like a feasibility demonstration of weaponized balloons. We used to have such feasibility study around early 2010s that aim to dump nasty things onto Japan with westerlies-riding balloons during war time, the technology must be pretty matured by now.

For example a balloon that carries radioactive waste only cost like 0.01% of an ICBM + nuclear warhead, but basically does a same job.

That is what I was thinking. How do they know it is not a North Korean balloon filled with reactor spent fuel? It may be programmed to open the chute on Manhattan. North Koreans surely can print Chinese characters on the balloon. Why not just blow it up as it approached Alaska or over the Pacific?

 

[jhungary]

That is what I was thinking. How do they know it is not a North Korean balloon filled with reactor spent fuel? It may be programmed to open the chute on Manhattan. North Koreans surely can print Chinese characters on the balloon. Why not just blow it up as it approached Alaska or over the Pacific?

Pretty sure the first thing they check when they send those unmarked KC-135 up is to check whether or not this balloon emit radioactive signature.

And the computer-generated flight path based on atmospheric data from NOAA suggested that the balloon travel thru Japan and reach US shore via Alaska and it was hugging the coast since it reaches US and Canadian shore. Which mean the only time the balloon can be shot down without affect civilian population is a brief time it transits between Hokkaido and Sakhalin or you would have to shoot it down when it enters Alaska Air Space

Previously, I read an article: "Ukraine Army Mocks Russia For Using '70-Year-Old' Anti-Aircraft Guns: 'From What Century?'".

My point is:

-------------------------------------------

The same is true in this case: It simply gives China more choices.

In some situations, old and outdated technologies are better than new and modern technologies.

Nah, Ukraine don't have a choice, it's not like they want to use 70 years old AA gun for air defence, but rather if they don't use that, what can they use? I mean it is still better than shooting them with AK or small arms, right?

China on the other hand, have choice, I mean if you send one of those balloons to do whatever intel gathering you want to do, you will ALWAYS come up emptyhanded and losing that balloon. PLAAF have, at least on paper, that RC-135 equivalent equipment loaded on a Y-8, they can use that, I mean at least that was not a single use device, you still wouldn't be able to get too much info on the US, but that is 100 times better than sending a balloon over.

 

[jhungary]

Do you remember the case Israel used a million dollar missile to shoot down a uav several thousand dollars.

Israel has many choices in this case, but they make the most inefficient decision (economics).

I'm sure that if Ukraine had more options, using a missile that costs $100,000 or $1 000 000 to shoot down a $25,000 drone is not the right decision in the long run.

It's different between sending a missile to intercept something, Sure, you can use AA gun or even small arms to try to bring them down, but what if you failed and people died because of it, I mean sure, using multi-millions dollar missile to intercept drone like Shahed seems like a waste of money, but in term of defence, I will go with the thing that get the highest percentage of probability, because it won't make much sense by saving a few thousand or millions of dollar just for you to paid for people who died in that attack or the properties damage it was done by the drone.

On the other hand, you are talking about sending something to try and do some recon/intel run.

It is related to the vision of leadership.

There are 3 options here:
1: Use a hot air balloon
2: Using the plane
3: Using satellites

China has many choices, they can choose whichever way they feel it will work. Like Deng Xiaoping famously said "It doesn't matter whether a cat is black or white, as long as it catches mice.

China can use hot air balloons, airplanes, satellites, or a combination of all three. Depending on the situation, they decide which solution is best.

You probably don't understand why I put out that post.

First of all, these type of intelligence mission is pointless, as much as US sending RC-135 outside China, their intelligence value are REALLY, REALLY small, I am pretty sure China have their own EMCON strategy to limit their emission, now I don't know or don't want to speculate why China launch such mission, but for us, it's more or less just to keep Chinese or Russian on their feet and have them constantly need to come up and intercept our flight, this is more of a "present" thing than really intelligence gathering.

Modern day SCIF are almost (I said almost because I don't know SCIF capability now) immune to this kind of probe. They have everything set up just to make up for EMCON which mean most likely as DoD said, that balloon would not have anything to report to. The problem is, Chinese know that, as I point out that this is not the first rodeo for China. Which mean if I have to guess, they probably have the same aim than us sending up those RC-135. Which is to put us in our heel and show their "Present" but that did beg a question, why actually intrude into our airspace??

The difference between using Plane and using Satellite and using Balloon is that the former 2 don't intrude into US Airspace, the last one does, and as I pointed out. This is a major deal, if you want to do that (as in intrude into US Airspace) you will need to either prepare for war (again, that is an act of war) or you can't let the American know. Now, it would have to be stupid to think the US wouldn't know Chinese launch Balloon toward the US. Which only leave one suggestion. That the Chinese are either are trying to piss us off into an actual war, by launching a balloon illegally into our airspace. Or they are trying to see what our response. But then, if that is either way, why would China denied this is a surveillance balloon and apologise for the intrusion? So that didn't make much sense there.

Which make this more of a head scratcher. In the old days, when I was in Military Intelligence, we would probably just shoot it down near Guam or Hawaii or Alaska, but why this time we let them fly overhead and then make a big deal out of it.

My point being, I don't know why China launch these balloons in the first place and I don't know why DoD didn't just shoot it down and make a big deal out of it.

 

[jhungary]

Maybe you and I are misunderstanding each other in this case:

In this event. Whether China's hot air balloon is a spy or not, I don't know and I don't want to draw absolute conclusions.

I don't think the Chinese use airships or hot air balloon as spies, but if they really do, I don't look down on them or downplay them for it either. . And I don't see any shame in using technologies that are more than 50 years old.

My comment focuses on the gist of: In some situations, old and outdated technologies are better than new and modern technologies.
I am not in favor of belittling and underestimating old technologies.
And you despise and underestimate old technologies.

I keep my opinion
You keep your point of view.

I did NOT despise and underestimate old technologies.

There are a lot of circumstances they should have use older technology, yes, but this is not one of them, unless you are talking about China is preparing to go to war with the US and save their best equipment in order to fight so they send a balloon to intrude into US Air Space.....

This is not about whether or not newer technology is more efficient, or older technology is more affordable, this is about the newer tech will not intrude into the US Air Space and risk starting a war, and the older tech does, so whatever Chinese wanted to do with this mission, it does not make sense at all to send Balloon to actually and still actively intruding the US Air Space. I mean, PLAAF leadership must have know that the US WILL intercept that balloon that get inside US air space, and given the PLAAF have other alternative, why not use them and use the balloon so it risk starting a war with the US.?? I mean, we aren't in 2000 or 1990 anymore, it's not like you expect to send them balloon over and we will not know.......

 

[F-22Raptor]

.

 

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1621673116115128329

Another Chinese balloon has been spotted in Latin America

 

[jhungary]

Maybe I misunderstood your point. Because in your first comment you didn't focus on the technical issue. You are mainly talking about the problem of outdated technology and the face of the nation when using something old.

I actually didn't even say China uses something old. I said "Why China still doing this since they were doing that (the balloon thing) since when I was in intelligence". The balloon may be new, or newer tech than most of our RC-135 (Which is in itelf, old) but that method, not the stuff that use are the point of doubt.

And then in subsequent post, I pointed out that this is an intrusion of US Air Space, while it makes sense in 2000 when technology level is low, you can probably still sneak a few passes without US noticed, but when they do get noticed or even, as I quoted, being shot down like that U-2 plane, this is going to create a gigantic international incident.

They key word is AROUND China, it never went INSIDE CHINESE AIRSPACE, well, except that time when that EP-3 got hit by Chinese J-8 and landed in Hainan.

This balloon is ON TOP OF US SOIL. Technically, this can already be considered as an aggressive act of war. You never fly over someone airspace without that airspace granting you permission to enter, I don't think US FAA granted Chinese entrant right on that balloon. Which mean this balloon is actively VIOLATING SOVEREIGN US AIRSPACE RIGHT NOW.

If this balloon crashed and killed either American or Canadian, this would be a giant international incident. As much as when that U-2 was shot down by USSR.

 

[epebble]

Pretty sure the first thing they check when they send those unmarked KC-135 up is to check whether or not this balloon emit radioactive signature.

And the computer-generated flight path based on atmospheric data from NOAA suggested that the balloon travel thru Japan and reach US shore via Alaska and it was hugging the coast since it reaches US and Canadian shore. Which mean the only time the balloon can be shot down without affect civilian population is a brief time it transits between Hokkaido and Sakhalin or you would have to shoot it down when it enters Alaska Air Space

If a KC-135 can go near it to get radiation signature, why not just 'roll down the window' and empty some small arm bullets so that the balloon will hiss out slowly and fall gently into water? It may even be recovered then.

 

[jhungary]

I regularly read your comments on the pdf, and always appreciate your views.

But this is the first time I feel uncomfortable reading your comments and discussing with you.

I feel like....

It's hard to explain.

Well, I think you simply missed my point, that happened to me a lot, you know, then you know, if you don't know, then let's move on.

I mean, my point is, we are in 2023, you don't risk a war to do whatever you want to do by intruding someone else's territorial water or airspace. I mean the balloon is not hovering 11nm/12nm outside Californian water, or in some disputed territories where different country claimed the airspace, Montana is very deep inside sovereign US Air Space. I mean, there are no other excuse for getting that far into US airspace, well, US Territories in fact, for whatever reason China want to, unless again, that reason is China intentionally did that to start a war.

I am not saying China want to start a war, I am saying it's weird China still do that old fashion thing.

 

[Maula Jatt]

LMAO

 

[jhungary]

If a KC-135 can go near it to get radiation signature, why not just 'roll down the window' and empty some small arm bullets so that the balloon will hiss out slowly and fall gently into water? It may even be recovered then.

Don't think you can roll down the window if they were flying above FL 600.

Also, as I said, most of the time US will just engage these Balloon when they were about to enter Guam Air Space, Hawaii Air Space or Alaska Air Space, I mean I myself had a couple of these encounters when I was in the Military. They didn't touch that to prove a point, I don't know what Point the DoD is trying to prove tho, but in most circumstance, we will just brought them down and move on, DoD wouldn't even bother to make a presser.

So there are something DoD want to say by not shooting it down. I just don't know what that message is. Maybe it's tic for tac for the Philippine thing? maybe they really don't want to make a fuzz out of it, or maybe they want to study the balloon? I don't know, and god's know what these DoD people thinking

 

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1621686041873719298

 

[epebble]

They didn't touch that to prove a point, I don't know what Point the DoD is trying to prove tho, but in most circumstance, we will just brought them down and move on, DoD wouldn't even bother to make a presser.

So there are something DoD want to say by not shooting it down. I just don't know what that message is.

I think that answers my question. This is a political drama to highlight China's adversarial nature to rile up the people. BTW, my 'rolling down window' comment was metaphorical, to indicate some low caliber ammunition to cause gradual descent of the balloon and not blow it to smithereens with a missile.

 

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1621687844682039296

 

[jhungary]

I think that answers my question. This is a political drama to highlight China's adversarial nature to rile up the people. BTW, my 'rolling down window' comment was metaphorical, to indicate some low caliber ammunition to cause gradual descent of the balloon and not blow it to smithereens with a missile.

Well, fighter don't go up that high, they probably level at FL500 or FL600. this is about 70,000 to 90,000 ft. It's hard to shoot it down with conventional mean (like low calibre munition or short-range missile.) Most of the time they would use long range AAM/SAM to bring it down, well, the might is there, but whether or not they use it is another matter.