My guess:
KPK: 30-33
FATA: 2-5
Balochistan: 0-1
Islamabad: 1-2
Sindh: 5 (3 may be in Khi, 2-3 elsewhere based on electables)
S.Punjab: 10-15 out of 46.
N.Punjab: 30-40 out of 95*. This is real challenge.
Mathematics of govt (need 137 of 272 general seats).
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PTI Own: 80-100 seats.
S.Punjab Indep: 15-20
FATA Indep: 5
Balochistan Small Parties: 6-8
MQM/PSP: 15-20
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Total: 121-153
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So I think following will be critical:
- PTI slightly increases in footprint in KPK from 2013.
- PTI and independents do well in S.Punjab
- PTI unlike last time takes at least 30+ seats in North Punjab. Important areas will be: Urban Posh Areas like Gulburg, DHA in Lahore. Pothohar belt (e.g. Jehlum, Rawalpindi etc) since these areas have a lot of people in Armed Forces and a lot of shaheeds. So Nawaz's anti-armed forces narrative may be counter productive in this area. Lahore, Faisalabad, Gujranwala will probably overall remain N-league strongholds.