Pak's deal 'No drone attack on camps training terrorists against India':NYT

[Dillinger]

The Government is; we believe the NRO was more than just a National Reconciliation Ordinance ! And the PA or the PAF aren't doing it because of the probable consequences of such an undertaking; the last thing we need now is even more demonization & giving our detractors a veritable action to, almost inevitably, be linked with 'they - the Pakistanis - are supporting Afghan Taliban' ! Or giving tangible credence to the Army's extra-constitutional actions whilst its been remarkably restrained in the light of what Zardari & Co. have managed to do to Pakistan - Neither of which we can afford right now !

At any rate, the absence of any movement on stopping these attacks, may, at best, slap the PA with the label of cowardice though others may call it expedience, but I fail to see how it 'substantiate' a deal simply on the basis of 'So if its not that then it must be the converse' - Fine....anything to substantiate that or are we merely talking in terms of conjectures ?

It seems to be one of the possible options no? After all even what you've stated above is conjecture based on statements and news reports and your analysis of it all. And in the Musharraf years when the US was operating Shamsi, Pasni and Jacobabad (Aziz mentioned the last two, as did other notable fellows) there must have been some framework- deal? Pakistan wouldn't have given all of that up without some written rules and SOPs, anything to the contrary would mean that Mushy just capitulated without even setting some conditions as to what these drones would be doing.

 

[KRAIT]

Quite Expected.

I don't know why India is not pushing US to look out for our interests too.

That's why I always said, India should be pro-active rather than asking now. Make diplomatic pressure on US.

 

[KRAIT]

Well Pakistan wants to get rid of terrorists that attack it but keep training and sending terrorists in India.

I remember someone calling about Karma.
And this UPA govt. instead of using 26/11 and OBL raid, was pursuing Aman ki Asha.

How many times, India will keep repeating this mistake.

Pakistan will keep sending terrorists. Even if it spreads in its own country.

As long as these camps are there, there can't be any peace talks.

But this Govt. and Indians. They are just plain Idiots. Katju was right after all, at least in this context.

Go watch Indo-Pak series while they keep sending Kasab and Afzal Guru.

All Indians deserve this.

Fool me once, shame on you fool e twice shame on me.

 

[Armstrong]

It seems to be one of the possible options no? After all even what you've stated above is conjecture based on statements and news reports and your analysis of it all. And in the Musharraf years when the US was operating Shamsi, Pasni and Jacobabad (Aziz mentioned the last two, as did other notable fellows) there must have been some framework- deal? Pakistan wouldn't have given all of that up without some written rules and SOPs, anything to the contrary would mean that Mushy just capitulated without even setting some conditions as to what these drones would be doing.

Indeed it does along with a plethora of other possible options but because defending a negative is a logical impossibility I can't prove that it didn't happen, the onus is on others to do that !

In the Musharaf Area, for all the Azizs & others there are yet others who called it a one-man show with no written SOPs or documentary evidence for anything that went about apart from the conversations that Musharraf had with his counterparts on the other-side ! Heck it was even asserted that Pakistan & NATO didn't even have a formal agreement for the supply routes. Obviously there are questions on both the assertions, the counter-assertions & the ones making them but its in this uncertainty that I find it ever so amazing that somehow those of us who live with-out Pakistan have formed an opinion that checks out for them, in all material regards, the questions raised about its credibility or accuracy but those of us who live with-in Pakistan & either have exponentially more contacts with PA personnel, bureaucrats, tribals & even journalists or know those who have such contacts, are hard pressed to form anything close to a definitive opinion but others have it all worked out !

I've met more Tribal Pukhtoons then most Foreign Journalists combined & even I, after hundreds of our conversations with dozens of different tribals, am noy even a little close to understanding what is happening there, what are the grievances of the Tribal people & on which side of the fence do they fancy themselves, & this is without me even stepping into the Tribal Areas & yet somehow a fellow sitting in NY who'd be hard pressed to name most of the Tribal Agencies without resorting to Google Search never mind actually meeting a Tribal, has all the facts & figures he'd ever need to form an iron-clad opinion which is incontrovertibly or even partially reflective of the ground realities of the Tribal Areas & the rest ! And this applies to a number of issues across the board.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

No price is worth inviting the US Army into your country. To start a war no less (the WoT).

Not even a trillion dollars in hard cash.

Let alone sparing a few specific camps, which I guess is worth about two dollars.

 

[Dillinger]

@Armstrong Then why do you expect the situation to get better after 2014, the US draw-down will still leave their CIA assets and Spec ops units like TF Orange on site, only the grunts will leave leaving the civilians in the area undefended as a possible conflict erupts between various groups. But the US's ability to strike from there within Pakistan will not diminish, only their dependence on the GLOC will no longer be there, best case scenario even if proxies backed by you kick out Karzai- its not going to happen in a day or even if a reconciliation occurs then the US will ensure that its core interests are maintained.

 

[Armstrong]

No price is worth inviting the US Army into your country. To start a war no less (the WoT).

Not even a trillion dollars in hard cash.

Let alone sparing a few specific camps, which I guess is worth about two dollars.

A mistake we're paying for !

 

[Armstrong]

@Armstrong Then why do you expect the situation to get better after 2014, the US draw-down will still leave their CIA assets and Spec ops units like TF Orange on site, only the grunts will leave leaving the civilians in the area undefended as a possible conflict erupts between various groups. But the US's ability to strike from there within Pakistan will not diminish, only their dependence on the GLOC will no longer be there, best case scenario even if proxies backed by you kick out Karzai- its not going to happen in a day or even if a reconciliation occurs then the US will ensure that its core interests are maintained.

I've no concrete reason to believe that everything would be hunky dory post-2014, if anything I would imagine, if I were a Talib, I'd say - So now lets concentrate on the other side of the Durand line, as payback for the betrayal back in '01 ! But our Babus & Faujis & incidentally Tribals I've talked to think otherwise & perhaps confidently so; now whether they are delusional or they've got their acts together (all of them) is something I leave for the future to substantiate !

 

[Dillinger]

I've no concrete reason to believe that everything would be hunky dory post-2014, if anything I would imagine, if I were a Talib, I'd say - So now lets concentrate on the other side of the Durand line, as payback for the betrayal back in '01 ! But our Babus & Faujis & incidentally Tribals I've talked to think otherwise & perhaps confidently so; now whether they are delusional or they've got their acts together (all of them) is something I leave for the future to substantiate !

Dunno seems like there will just be more chaos, this isn't like the last time- you have many more players now with their own axes to grind- some of them with their cronies in the Afghan army- hell I've heard credible reports that it isn't just the Taliban that infiltrated the Afghan Army- in fact that their infiltration was the smallest- after all when you're a warlord then what better way to cultivate assets than to have a professional army train em' arm em' and feed em' all free of cost. This time around its going to be taliban and anti-taliban groups fighting on a more even ground while the Americans sit in Karzai's palace. Remember, if it is the Americans who are behind all of this, then they don't need Afghanistan as a whole, in fact they don't need any of the poor schmucks, they just need a base or two and perimeter around it. Even lines of communication are not required as evidenced by their drone ops in Africa and elsewhere. They could happily keep shooting a missile or two and keep fomenting TTP like problems since one way or the other they've already succeeded in creating the impression that the GOP and the PA cannot either stop them or don't want to and are complicit.

 

[Jind_Sagar]

Indeed it does along with a plethora of other possible options but because defending a negative is a logical impossibility I can't prove that it didn't happen, the onus is on others to do that !

In the Musharaf Area, for all the Azizs & others there are yet others who called it a one-man show with no written SOPs or documentary evidence for anything that went about apart from the conversations that Musharraf had with his counterparts on the other-side ! Heck it was even asserted that Pakistan & NATO didn't even have a formal agreement for the supply routes. Obviously there are questions on both the assertions, the counter-assertions & the ones making them but its in this uncertainty that I find it ever so amazing that somehow those of us who live with-out Pakistan have formed an opinion that checks out for them, in all material regards, the questions raised about its credibility or accuracy but those of us who live with-in Pakistan & either have exponentially more contacts with PA personnel, bureaucrats, tribals & even journalists or know those who have such contacts, are hard pressed to form anything close to a definitive opinion but others have it all worked out !

I've met more Tribal Pukhtoons then most Foreign Journalists combined & even I, after hundreds of our conversations with dozens of different tribals, am noy even a little close to understanding what is happening there, what are the grievances of the Tribal people & on which side of the fence do they fancy themselves, & this is without me even stepping into the Tribal Areas & yet somehow a fellow sitting in NY who'd be hard pressed to name most of the Tribal Agencies without resorting to Google Search never mind actually meeting a Tribal, has all the facts & figures he'd ever need to form an iron-clad opinion which is incontrovertibly or even partially reflective of the ground realities of the Tribal Areas & the rest ! And this applies to a number of issues across the board.

I think think lot of it comes down to pashto speaking areas being in Pakistan. A nation wants independence that's all.

 

[my2cents]

In 2009 it was ranked at 10.

Now it's not even in the top 10 countries.

And that too despite an IDP/refugee crisis which still lingers (exacerbated by Afghans); 3 major natural disasters; endemic corruption, etc.

so your logic and reasoning seems to warrant a "fail" label as well

You guys have made it to the list each year since 2006 when this list was compiled. If that is not considered bigger fail then you tell me what is??

 

[Armstrong]

Dunno seems like there will just be more chaos, this isn't like the last time- you have many more players now with their own axes to grind- some of them with their cronies in the Afghan army- hell I've heard credible reports that it isn't just the Taliban that infiltrated the Afghan Army- in fact that their infiltration was the smallest- after all when you're a warlord then what better way to cultivate assets than to have a professional army train em' arm em' and feed em' all free of cost. This time around its going to be taliban and anti-taliban groups fighting on a more even ground while the Americans sit in Karzai's palace. Remember, if it is the Americans who are behind all of this, then they don't need Afghanistan as a whole, in fact they don't need any of the poor schmucks, they just need a base or two and perimeter around it. Even lines of communication are not required as evidenced by their drone ops in Africa and elsewhere. They could happily keep shooting a missile or two and keep fomenting TTP like problems since one way or the other they've already succeeded in creating the impression that the GOP and the PA cannot either stop them or don't want to and are complicit.

Indeed thats possible for even with respect to the Taliban you've got dozens upon dozens of militant groups that come under that blanket term with many of them swearing allegiance to Mullah Omar, with others, like the TTP, giving lip service to that allegiance & yet others who're not really with them & are pretty cohesive militant forces acting independently of the Taliban or the ANA !

But we had countless many players the last time too, I believe, as was once related to me by a Colonel who oversaw the whole Afghan Jihad from up close & personal, that we supported the Taliban because there were a plethora of factions in the vacuum that was created in a Post-Soviet Jihad Afghanistan, that were being supported by all & sundry - Everyone from the immediate neighbors, to India, the Soviets, even some in the West, the Middle-East & yet some who were acting almost independently but, for obvious reasons, got absorbed into one of the many factions.

And no I don't think the TTP are supported by the US but they are supported by someone otherwise the insurgency would have lost its momentum; the US just doesn't have any major incentive in going after them & risking the TTP & other factions who operate on the Pakistani side to turn their guns on them & compound an already pretty sh*tty situation.

What the future holds is uncertain but if my Faujis & Babus are confident that we'd manage something then I'm sure they're basing their opinions on a lot more than news excerpts or television interviews & are, at least theoretically, exponentially more qualified & in possession of the 'right information' to appraise the situation & forecast much better than anyone of us cafeteria critics can !

 

[Dillinger]

Indeed thats possible for even with respect to the Taliban you've got dozens upon dozens of militant groups that come under that blanket term with many of them swearing allegiance to Mullah Omar, with others, like the TTP, giving lip service to that allegiance & yet others who're not really with them & are pretty cohesive militant forces acting independently of the Taliban or the ANA !

But we had countless many players the last time too, I believe, as was once related to me by a Colonel who oversaw the whole Afghan Jihad from up close & personal, that we supported the Taliban because there were a plethora of factions in the vacuum that was created in a Post-Soviet Jihad Afghanistan, that were being supported by all & sundry - Everyone from the immediate neighbors, to India, the Soviets, even some in the West, the Middle-East & yet some who were acting almost independently but, for obvious reasons, got absorbed into one of the many factions.

And no I don't think the TTP are supported by the US but they are supported by someone otherwise the insurgency would have lost its momentum; the US just doesn't have any major incentive in going after them & risking the TTP & other factions who operate on the Pakistani side to turn their guns on them & compound an already pretty sh*tty situation.

What the future holds is uncertain but if my Faujis & Babus are confident that we'd manage something then I'm sure they're basing their opinions on a lot more than news excerpts or television interviews & are, at least theoretically, exponentially more qualified & in possession of the 'right information' to appraise the situation & forecast much better than anyone of us cafeteria critics can !

I had quoted an article for you from Dawn, gave you the link- read it, its posted in Naswaristan. Also I believe Sir Simon is on board, saw a brief post of his mentioning Afghanistan in passing but the said mention hinted towards a reorientation from the previous mindset of affixing a stooge in Afghanistan and the idea of "strategic depth". Being a senior officer of the armed force who's opinion would obviously be well furnished, well its not an opinion considering he probably could tell us exactly how it will go down if he wanted to, could you perhaps ask him for his views on the issue?

 

[OrionHunter]

I thought the US is fighting a war on terror? Yes, its war on terror, meaning targeting only selected terror groups that apparently pose a threat to it. Since the LeT and other assorted anti India groups are not considered a clear and present danger to the US of A, they have readily agreed to Mush's formula of leaving these terrorist groups and their training centers in Pakistan alone, and only target the Al Qaeda and their affiliates by drone strikes. This is nowhere near a holistic approach to banish terror per se.

That is what I call hypocrisy of the highest order! These yanks will realize one day when the LeT starts spreading their terror wings in the US of A too. And that time is not too far away.

A war on a few selected terror groups is not the way to prosecute a War On Terror by any stretch of imagination. This is an eyewash - a war by the US with just the Al Qeada. And that strategy is bound to fail. Killing a cobra at home while sparing the other poisonous snakes will not lessen the danger of getting fatally bitten. You need to kill every single one of them to ensure your safety.

But it seems the yanks thing otherwise!

 

[PlanetWarrior]

there was no "civil war" until NATO invaded Afghanistan

at the moment, there are anti-state militant factions (TTP and AUI) busy killing eachother and saving us bullets. Tribal wars have gone on for centuries though now they've taken a different dimension. Not a long term thing though (long term being defined as 7-10 years or longer). It wont be an easy fight though but as long as majority of the tribes support the army and cooperate with intel agencies then the war in winnable.

and luckily - geographically it's concentrated in one region of the country unlike other countries in which 1/3 the landmass is under control or de-facto control of insurgents (hint hint)



LeT is a nonexistant entity. But I'm glad you view them as not a threat. I hope your media and your babus can learn to stop yapping their name in every other sentence they speak.

The problem with indians is that they yelp when they are bitten but they fail to understand (nor show any ability to understand) why certain groups want to attack them. As long as the Kashmiri issue remains lingering and unsolved and as long as excesses are committed against Muslim majority Kashmiri region then naturally there will be response from the other side. Even in Pakistan there are sympathizers for such groups (defunct or active) since the Kashmiri issue affects Pakistan directly.

Thank you for confirming my query whether the civil war will rage on. The fact of the matter is that whether it is armed groups attacking each other or whether it is armed groups attacking the establishment, it is still classified as a civil war. It is however the establishment's duty to stop the fighting or to put an end to it one way or another.

The Kashmir issue will rage on. In another thread I suggested that the inability of the Indian and Pakistani governments to resolve an issue which relates to comparatively what is a small piece of land for both nations, reflects the immaturity of South Asia. Offcourse people such as you and I are not qualified to post possible solutions to the problem. We will be insulting our forebears who tried (whether by means of war or peace negotiations) if we do. But I am certain that you will agree with me that funding armed groups to cross over and launch attacks against what is undisputedly a giant of a nation (India) will yield little if no beneficial results for either Pakistan or the people of Kashmir who want either independence or seccession to Pakistan. Hence my earlier suggestion that whilst groups like LeT will remain no more than a flea to India's rear, it could end up being a machete which chops off Pakistan's right hand. In a nutshell, Pakistan has to develop a diplomatic battle against India which is acceptable to the international community. Funding or even permitting rag tag armed groups in a sovereign state indicates a lack of control by that state.