Pakistan's Taliban Offensive Will Fall Short

[Windjammer]

i'm talking about the insergency not of a counter terrorism operations.
india was successful in countering khalistan movement, Kashmir insurgency, insurgency in north east. india is now handling the Maoists problem much better that PA. you said about golden temple incidents in 80s, then what happen in Lal Masjid in Islamabad ?? is that something proud to you?? we never use air-power against our own misguided people...

Now since you are contradicting yourself, is it even worth to reply......since insurgency is different to terrorism, how and what can your counter-insurgency expert comment on what Pakistan is fighting now....which is WOT. !!
Be Golden Temple or Lal Masjid, it's easy to attack and fight miscreants holed up in a confined place rather than those who hide and disperse in caves, mountains, ravines or even escape over the border.... so attacking and eliminating those hiding inside a building is not exactly a major exercise.
You know, Indians often boast about not using airpower on it's own people...... well where and how could India use it's airpower effectively apart from the facts that it already deploys rotary wings.
Did US with all it's might of airpower succeed in bombing the Vietnam jungles that you think IAF could achieve much against the Maoists. !!

 

[rockstar08]

indian general should know that its Pakistan army not indian ..
we know how to fight a guerrilla warfare .. we are more trained and experience than their army ..

 

[FaujHistorian]

indian general should know that its Pakistan army not indian ..
we know how to fight a guerrilla warfare .. we are more trained and experience than their army ..

I agree with you but Let's wait and see.

 

[fatman17]

The title of Shuja Nawaz's piece above is (IMO) alarmist, premature and unnecessarily speculative in nature. At this (early) stage of the campaign; that cannot be an advisable approach to take.

That being said; Shuja does make some telling points about how the plan seems to have taken off.
Firstly; there is still not any great clarity on how much congruence the GHQ (PA) and GoP have on the methods and objectives. That is important, even critical for the plan of action to succeed. And for the general public in Pakistan to lend their unstinting and unequivocal support to the campaign. Which is critical to achieve lasting results.

The second point that Shuja Nawaz makes is imbued with some degree of validity: which is that the approach is still 'tactical' with deficient attention being addressed to the 'strategic' aspects. This point of view deserves more thought.

But will that still justify attaching the title, that has been?

@Icarus: Sir, your views?

he has to earn a living too...ya!

 

[rockstar08]

I agree with you but Let's wait and see.

i am sure they will take care of those bunch of Talibans , what i fear that they will run to their afghan brothers ,or some of our political and religious parties will give them shelter in madarasa, JUI , JI and ANP ..

 

[OCguy]

This article has a tone that seems more like wishful thinking, rather than anything based upon fact.

 

[fatman17]

Do we care what Indians think? Nope.

I mean, how low and woefully ignorant one has to be to write up and read in Indian Defence Review?

the media and the western analysts said the same thing about the Swat ops.....once it succeeded so brilliantly, it was made a 'case study' for how to run a COIN ops by the americans of all people.

 

[FaujHistorian]

i am sure they will take care of those bunch of Talibans , what i fear that they will run to their afghan brothers ,or some of our political and religious parties will give them shelter in madarasa, JUI , JI and ANP ..

agreed.

JUI and JI, yes.

ANP no. ANP lost so many of their top and mid level leadership to the Talibombs.

 

[fatman17]

.....and by the US General who wrote the COIN book

 

[rockstar08]

agreed.

JUI and JI, yes.

ANP no. ANP lost so many of their top and mid level leadership to the Talibombs.

how they lost them ? when operation was on going in Fata other agencies , aNP bring those IDP to karachi , along with them so many terrorists and afghans, tajiz and uzbik comes too, they bring them to break the hold of MQM and vote bank in karachi ,and guess what happen , those afghans , tajiz and uzbik terrorist kick ANP A$$'s , kill their workers and capture all their offices in their key areas .. and now they are involved in target killing , bhata khori , kidnappings and bomb blast

 

[FaujHistorian]

the media and the western analysts said the same thing about the Swat ops.....once it succeeded so brilliantly, it was made a 'case study' for how to run a COIN ops by the americans of all people.

One of the main pillars of coin operations is not to appear as occupying force.

This is a bit easy if you are not from another country
from another religion

Also need to add and support "awakening councils" as part of COIN.

So yes Pakistani army has a lot of experience doing civilian project and running the army.

IN fact I'd dare say that in few months time (once NWA is relatively calm) we should pull out 20,000 (out of 40 or so) and send them on peace keeping mission in places like Iraq. Off course it will not be free. and someone in USA and Iraq has to foot the bill.

Pakistani army can not only pacify ISIS but also speed up the infrastructure projects so the people have more trust in Iraqi gov.


Sorry I went off topic.


Happy Ramzan

how they lost them ? when operation was on going in Fata other agencies , aNP bring those IDP to karachi , along with them so many terrorists and afghans, tajiz and uzbik comes too, they bring them to break the hold of MQM and vote bank in karachi ,and guess what happen , those afghans , tajiz and uzbik terrorist kick ANP A$$'s , kill their workers and capture all their offices in their key areas .. and now they are involved in target killing , bhata khori , kidnappings and bomb blast

Left of center Pashtuns support ANP

Right winger conservative Islamists do not support ANP

Also Karachi politics is $hitty as hell where my own Bihari community is the biggest culprit.

Sorry I am off topic.

 

[rockstar08]

One of the main pillars of coin operations is not to appear as occupying force.

This is a bit easy if you are not from another country
from another religion

Also need to add and support "awakening councils" as part of COIN.

So yes Pakistani army has a lot of experience doing civilian project and running the army.

IN fact I'd dare say that in few months time (once NWA is relatively calm) we should pull out 20,000 (out of 40 or so) and send them on peace keeping mission in places like Iraq. Off course it will not be free. and someone in USA and Iraq has to foot the bill.

Pakistani army can not only pacify ISIS but also speed up the infrastructure projects so the people have more trust in Iraqi gov.


Sorry I went off topic.


Happy Ramzan



Left of center Pashtuns support ANP

Right winger conservative Islamists do not support ANP

Also Karachi politics is $hitty as hell where my own Bihari community is the biggest culprit.

Sorry I am off topic.

well definitely its like this quote " Behti Ganga mai sab hath dho rahe hai "

 

[foxbat]

Actually, what the title claims can not happen. Simply because its a fight for survival. PA falling short will mean end of Pakistan in its present form, and the Pakistan that will replace the present Pakistan will not be acceptable to any worthwhile power in the region or the world. Hence that will never be allowed to happen.

What is unsure is the damage Pakistan will sustain in this war, but the end result is already known.

 

[Icarus]

Two points however stand out, one of them is also in an article in BBC today - that is - when you tell half a million people to relocate because war is coming, the militants will also disappear as they are not looking for a conventional fight anyway. So the real challenge only begings after military runs over NW.

Agreed, militants will also flee the military's onslaught and will set up small cells within variouscities, however, these cells will be limited in their operational capacity and will be limited to hit and run gun attacks or a grenade attack at best, with their capacity for war addressed, they will gradually become irrelevant to the geopolitical situation.

Second point is, nonone, meaning no power on earth can use airpower and artillery against own people and not cause civilian casualties. I do not know what kind of impact that will have on the pakhtun mindset. I'm in Dubai and all the pakhtuns I know have shown extreme support for the operation yet extreme disgust at the way IDPs have been treated. These are educated ones.

Artillery and Airstrikes are usually used against isolated targets with a great concentration of militants or against the tunnel/cave complexes, for now IDPs are actually being dealt with quite systematically which I guess the Dubai residents, being so far away might not have fully heard about it.

Its not an easy task, not for any military. Minds have to be won, Taliban has to be discredited. Allowing them to run NW for all these years was a very bad idea in that department.

Agreed, NWA should have been taken off along with the first string of Ops but then again, the political situation did not allow for it as two of the nation's largest political forces, the PTI and PMLN were against it.

 

[hkdas]

Now since you are contradicting yourself, is it even worth to reply......since insurgency is different to terrorism, how and what can your counter-insurgency expert comment on what Pakistan is fighting now....which is WOT. !!
Be Golden Temple or Lal Masjid, it's easy to attack and fight miscreants holed up in a confined place rather than those who hide and disperse in caves, mountains, ravines or even escape over the border.... so attacking and eliminating those hiding inside a building is not exactly a major exercise.
You know, Indians often boast about not using airpower on it's own people...... well where and how could India use it's airpower effectively apart from the facts that it already deploys rotary wings.
Did US with all it's might of airpower succeed in bombing the Vietnam jungles that you think IAF could achieve much against the Maoists. !!

india have better tactics than pakistan army. many country including US, israel, UK, Russia and many others came to india to learn how indian army is so successful in countering the insurgency india dispite pakistan's support to the terrorism in kashmir and other places in india and india's counter insurgency training and tactics are praised by many counters including US, UK and russian. and i am sure that these armys are light year ahead of pakistan army in equipments and training. the airstrike conducted by PAF cause much more collateral damage than the US drones. even the civilians in pakistan had said that they afraid PAF than US drones.

even in 80s and early 90s no civilians in kashmir had to leave their home because of a counter insurgency operations done by indian army. what pakistan military is doing is call an airstrike if there is any presence of a terrorist and kill everyone in that area and declare those killed in airstrike are terrorist. even media have been restricted from those place in-order to hide the civilian causality. pakisatn military is fighting insurgency as same way they fight conventional wars.