Pakistan's Taliban Offensive Will Fall Short

[Windjammer]

well, your(Pakistani's) woefully ignorant nature and lack of strategic thinking lead your county to become a unstable and volatile nation. the author of that article is an army officer with very good experience in counter insurgency operations.

''Ghar mein nai atta aur nam rakha hey Paratha''.....
Well, could your shining (Indian) nature enlighten us ignorant Pakistanis as apart from trampling on the serenity of the Golden Temple, which insurgency have your experienced army and their officers have managed to quell so far......IOK....???...Maoists...???.....just to name a few. ... Thanks.

 

[Capt.Popeye]

Indeed, the title is misleading and has been attached with the sole purpose of grabbing attention, the material of the article hardly even denotes any relevance to the title. The article itself addresses a different matter entirely. There is still a void to be filled as far as counter-terrorism policy goes and until the nation has a government that seems committed to tackling the terrorism menace, the matter will not subside. The perception and projection of the government and its relationships with the armed forces requires some changes in order to make the psychological impact of these operations more effective.
As for the second point, I believe that tactical and strategic motives of the operations are intertwined, clearing the areas and dismantling terrorist command structures is a tactical objective and when it has been achieved, the strategic objectives of holding the areas and refraining the terrorists from taking over will take precedence. However, the real result will be achieved when the civilian government works to consolidate the Army's gains by providing infrastructure and administrative support to the locals which has so far, unfortunately, remained a non-starter. The Army clears the area, rebuilds and reestablishes the political machinery, which leads people to see the Army and TTP as the sole stakeholders in the conflict and the GoP is ignored entirely, resultantly, when the Army leaves those areas, the people don't really respond to the government machinery the same way. That is a matter which I believe needs to be addressed.

@Icarus; Thank You for a considered response. Which is I can see as a marked contrast fro "empty talk" that some others found............but did not even attempt to address.

Incidentally, both Nawaz and Katoch have written about the same subject; albeit Nawaz views the Strategic aspects of it while Katoch views it more as a military person.

Your point#1 is very valid. CT is (IMHO) rather a different 'kettle of fish' from CW (Conventional Warfare). Few of the usual doctrines of CW work in CT. Which is what Maj.Gen. D.C.Katoch has also touched upon in his op-ed; disregarding any other POV that may underline his writing.

About the second point that you make; it is very accurate. Of course assuming (contrary to what Shuja Nawaz postulates) that both Tactical and Strategic aspects are inter-twined. I would like to draw your attention to the point that Shuja Nawaz seems not only looking at Strategic implications in the area of the Ops but is clearly looking at that aspect WRT the contry as a whole. Coincidentally, even Katoch dwells on this; but in a different fashion.
Obviously the Civilian Govt will have to step in after the PA has carried out Ops in the Op Area. But it will not be viable if the Civilian Govt does not have a plan in place for that phase. Most importantly, that will require a continuing Military presence in those areas over an extended period to facilitate and then consolidate whatever plan that the Civilian Govt has in mind. A point that you have also made. So the Plan of that phase will have to be jointly authored by both the Civilian and Military authorities and then taken ownership of by both entities.

And then there is the aspect of the 'Strategic Plan' to be applied to the rest of the country. That has a smaller role for the Military and predominantly so for the Civilian Authority but even that will need to have inputs from the Military to be efficacious.

 

[hkdas]

Yes, but the General's credentials are not being questioned, what's being questioned is the fact that he put in the effort to write this article which at the end of the day makes a lot of assumptions, repeats India's stance on Pakistan and then goes on to finish on the note of 'we'll see what happens when it actually happens'.

time will tell, hope the intensity of terrorism in the region will be reduced...

 

[Donatello]

well, your(Pakistani's) woefully ignorant nature and lack of strategic thinking lead your county to become a unstable and volatile nation. the author of that article is an army officer with very good experience in counter insurgency operations.

Kiddo, we have been hearing all sorts of non-sense from Indian since 1947. For you, it's your only way of communicating, because that's how most of your country men are brought up :Just Bullshyt and then Bullshyt some more.

 

[notsuperstitious]

Typical and stereotypical, two words I can best use to describe this article.

Two points however stand out, one of them is also in an article in BBC today - that is - when you tell half a million people to relocate because war is coming, the militants will also disappear as they are not looking for a conventional fight anyway. So the real challenge only begings after military runs over NW.

Second point is, nonone, meaning no power on earth can use airpower and artillery against own people and not cause civilian casualties. I do not know what kind of impact that will have on the pakhtun mindset. I'm in Dubai and all the pakhtuns I know have shown extreme support for the operation yet extreme disgust at the way IDPs have been treated. These are educated ones.

Its not an easy task, not for any military. Minds have to be won, Taliban has to be discredited. Allowing them to run NW for all these years was a very bad idea in that department.

Kiddo, we have been hearing all sorts of non-sense from Indian since 1947. For you, it's your only way of communicating, because that's how most of your country men are brought up :Just Bullshyt and then Bullshyt some more.

As a think tank, you owe it to us to say something on topic from time to time. Pseudo psychoanalyses of indians can not be the topic of all threads.

 

[FaujHistorian]

......
Obviously the Civilian Govt will have to step in after the PA has carried out Ops in the Op Area. But it will not be viable if the Civilian Govt does not have a plan in place for that phase. ...

While this is correct in theory.

PA has extensive experience in establishing and running civilian side of affairs.

So it is OK to expect from PA to do stuff way beyond Indian army.

Our Indo Pak civilian baboos are baboons anyway so in tribal areas military officers enjoy lot more credibility in the eyes of ordinary people. (you know that Bannu Commissioner was given tents and money 6 months ago but the civilian idiot sat on all that stuff without care?)

should that be long term. No.

But for next 10+ years expect civilians to work in the back ground when it comes to FATA.

......
Most importantly, that will require a continuing Military presence in those areas over an extended period....

And what's wrong with establishing cantonments and forts in NWA for long term?

It is not foreign land.

it is ours to station 10,000 jawans and officers (a small bucket in overall numbers) for long term.

Hope this clarifies.

peace to you

Two points however stand out, one of them is also in an article in BBC today - that is - when you tell half a million people to relocate because war is coming, the militants will also disappear as they are not looking for a conventional fight anyway. So the real challenge only begings after military runs over NW.

Second point is, nonone, meaning no power on earth can use airpower and artillery against own people and not cause civilian casualties. I do not know what kind of impact that will have on the pakhtun mindset. I'm in Dubai and all the pakhtuns I know have shown extreme support for the operation yet extreme disgust at the way IDPs have been treated. These are educated ones.

Its not an easy task, not for any military. Minds have to be won, Taliban has to be discredited. Allowing them to run NW for all these years was a very bad idea in that department.
.

Again a bunch of pontifications with zero knowledge of the area and terrain.

NWA was the last safe area for militants.

Can they run to other areas. Yes.

But can they establish courts and training camps? Heck no.

Have civilians died? Yes.

Are the numbers of those dead civilians compared to 50,000 killed by Tali-bitches? Absolutely not.


As I said before

Instead of giving lectures.

Come around and offer your help.

It is a help for Pakistan for sure

But more importantly it is help for the whole damned region. If you know what I mean.

Peace to you

 

[Capt.Popeye]

see my later post.

Will add more as time permits.


Happy Ramzan

Nothing meaningful in the shape of specific points are visible yet.
But you can certainly say the same thing again and again very well..........and just belabor the point.

 

[FaujHistorian]

Nothing meaningful in the shape of specific points are visible yet.
But you can certainly say the same thing again and again very well..........and just belabor the point.

Did you read before hitting the "reply" button?

hahhahah

It is OK man. Right now you are set on Indian generals POV so anything against him will not work. This is how all of us set invisible filters in our brain/mind.

Happy hunting.

 

[hkdas]

''Ghar mein nai atta aur nam rakha hey Paratha''.....
Well, could your shining (Indian) nature enlighten us ignorant Pakistanis as apart from trampling on the serenity of the Golden Temple, which insurgency have your experienced army and their officers have managed to quell so far......IOK....???...Maoists...???.....just to name a few. ... Thanks.

i'm talking about the insergency not of a counter terrorism operations.
india was successful in countering khalistan movement, Kashmir insurgency, insurgency in north east. india is now handling the Maoists problem much better that PA. you said about golden temple incidents in 80s, then what happen in Lal Masjid in Islamabad ?? is that something proud to you?? we never use air-power against our own misguided people...

 

[notsuperstitious]

Again a bunch of pontifications with zero knowledge of the area and terrain.

NWA was the last safe area for militants.

Can they run to other areas. Yes.

But can they establish courts and training camps? Heck no.

Have civilians died? Yes.

Are the numbers of those dead civilians compared to 50,000 killed by Tali-bitches? Absolutely not.


As I said before

Instead of giving lectures.

Come around and offer your help.

It is a help for Pakistan for sure

But more importantly it is help for the whole damned region. If you know what I mean.

Peace to you

No leacture whatsoever. Read my post again. Pakistan already knows what to do (and started doing it), they will have to dominate the region and disredit the Taliban by offering governance without following into the trap of peace talks (and giving Talibs legitimacy). And its a long affair too.

All I can say is, all the best.

 

[Capt.Popeye]

Did you read before hitting the "reply" button?

hahhahah

It is OK man. Right now you are set on Indian generals POV so anything against him will not work. This is how all of us set invisible filters in our brain/mind.

Happy hunting.

It is apparent that you have not been reading my posts, before making some knee-jerk interjections. My discussions with @Icarus (which are in all my posts on this thread, btw) deal with Shuja Nawaz's views to start with and then Icarus's posts. Any reference to Katoch's op-ed are in passing, and I confined myself to only a few of those where they may connect to/correspond to Nawaz.

Please do not bother to react to my posts; till you can bring something worth-while to the discussion.
May I presume that you do not wish to add to "empty talk"?

 

[Jaanbaz]

We have faith in Gen Raheel Shareef.

 

[FaujHistorian]

It is apparent that you have not been reading my posts, before making some knee-jerk interjections. My discussions with @Icarus (which are in all my posts on this thread, btw) deal with Shuja Nawaz's views to start with and then Icarus's posts. Any reference to Katoch's op-ed are in passing, and I confined myself to only a few of those where they may connect to/correspond to Nawaz.

Please do not bother to react to my posts; till you can bring something worth-while to the discussion.
May I presume that you do not wish to add to "empty talk"?

Ok my dear Sir

I won't bother you.

why? I am kind of selfish
I don't want to loose my credits with Allah in case your feelings are hurt.

Happy Rozas

We have faith in Gen Raheel Shareef.

faith in God bro.
In God. we trust.

Hope God keeps Sharif determined and focused to keep our beautiful country safe from Tali-bitches scum.

Ameen

No leacture whatsoever. Read my post again. Pakistan already knows what to do (and started doing it), they will have to dominate the region and disredit the Taliban by offering governance without following into the trap of peace talks (and giving Talibs legitimacy). And its a long affair too.

All I can say is, all the best.

thanks for the good wishes bro

happy rozas

 

[Zarrar Alvi]

well, your(Pakistani's) woefully ignorant nature and lack of strategic thinking lead your county to become a unstable and volatile nation. the author of that article is an army officer with very good experience in counter insurgency operations.

counter insurgency operation send him to afghanistan then we will see how he handles the Taliban and Al Qaeda writing books and uttering BS is easy sitting somewhere safe in india

 

[farhan_9909]

Extreme level decreased activities of TTP is the sole example of the zarb e azb success.

I have followed the operations conducted in Pakistan in the past but this is of different magnitude.The security deployed throughout Pakistan is probably the reason why TTP could not conduct a single blast in response to the operation and are caught(be it in peshawar,Lahore or karachi recently)