Pakistan's Submarine Procurement

[ahussains]

When this issuse going to be finalized i think its already tooo late know authorities must have to make a decision

 

[EagleEyes]

By the end of this year. I am guessing it will be finalized.

Thanks.

 

[Jliu]

Hi, I have a question.

What is the exact number and diameter of the torpedo tubes that the Pakistani T214s have?

Do these have 650mm torpedo tubes?

As the deal is only a rumour for now, the exact configuration of the U214 is unknown but as per ROKN U214 fit, it should consist of (8) 533mm torp tubes capable of firing torps, AShMs and minelaying.

However, if the Federal Cabinet of Germany approves the SSKs to be built in Pakistan or even sold at all then a different fit may be envisioned to accomodate a sub launched Babur.

 

[Jliu]

Today on the sidelines of Eurosatory I had a rather interesting conversation with a senior TKMS executive regarding the export of U214 ssks. He mentioned that his company was preparing to bid for the IN tender for six additional ssks in 2008-09.

This really is no surprise to me but this raises the question of whether the
U214 would be offered to Pakistan or whether the IN would be prepared to operate a SSK very similar in specification to the PN. From past experiences with IN procurement gurus this is not likely and I got the impression that the Germans would not bid for the PN RFP in order to improve their chances for the IN RFP (which in 2002 they were legally barred from bidding).

As I understand the PN has a requirement for 3-4 new SSKs to add to the 5 Agostas in service so it will be interesting this time to see whether the PN prefer a customised Scorpene variant or procure the largely unknown Marlin ssk as the U214 is looking unlikely to be offered.

 

[EagleEyes]

I have strong doubts about your statements.

Indian Scorpene is in the process. There is no way there will be an Indian tender for the next-generation submarine anytime soon (probably not until 2015).

Until then there will be more many other offers.

U214 is likely to be signed at the end of this year. Let alone "the offer not being made to the PN".

 

[vish]

I have strong doubts about your statements.

Indian Scorpene is in the process. There is no way there will be an Indian tender for the next-generation submarine anytime soon (probably not until 2015).

Until then there will be more many other offers.

U214 is likely to be signed at the end of this year. Let alone "the offer not being made to the PN".

I'm sorry but I guess Webby you are wrong...

http://www.defence.pk/forums/indian...obal-tenders-acquire-six-more-submarines.html

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

I'm sorry but I guess Webby you are wrong...

http://www.defence.pk/forums/indian...obal-tenders-acquire-six-more-submarines.html

Any time lines for when the tenders will be floated?

Plus, given that there have been grumblings over the slow rate of production of Naval assets in India, combined with a shortage of facilities to undertake that production, what impact will it have on the time line of procurement?

 

[vish]

Any time lines for when the tenders will be invited?

None that I'm aware of; I guess it will be in 2009, or so I hope.

 

[EagleEyes]

"to float a global tender". First they have to take it out in the market. Then it will take years to consider it, and then they will finally order it. I mean lets look at MRCA. Everything is hit with delays.

I do know that India wants to buy everything. Eurocopter, Tiger, F-18, MiG-35, PAC-3, name anything.

Regardless of whatsoever. The statements regarding not being offered holds very little validity.

 

[EagleEyes]

Here is a credible source:

French Push Warship Sales
The failure of France’s Armaris to sell submarines to Pakistan last year could hamper French efforts to sell surface ships and submarines to Saudi Arabia.
RIYADH - French Push Warship Sales - INTELLIGENCE ONLINE

Now last year, there was all the hype in the Pakistan commitee about procuring inferior U-214 boats instead of the Marlin (due to the strong French lobby, remind you even the French President Pushed for it).

Even the inside credible sources are saying that U-214 will be picked. Now how credible is the source is for Jilo has yet to be seen.

 

[vish]

Webby:

I'm not contending whether or not U-214 will be offered to Pakistan; Jliu (hope I spelled his name correctly) will clear his views on that.

My contention is that India is going in for six additional other-than-Scorpene SSKs and the tender, in all likelyhood, will be floated in 2009.

 

[Jliu]

Here is a credible source:

French Push Warship Sales
The failure of France’s Armaris to sell submarines to Pakistan last year could hamper French efforts to sell surface ships and submarines to Saudi Arabia.
RIYADH - French Push Warship Sales - INTELLIGENCE ONLINE

Now last year, there was all the hype in the Pakistan commitee about procuring inferior U-214 boats instead of the Marlin (due to the strong French lobby, remind you even the French President Pushed for it).

Even the inside credible sources are saying that U-214 will be picked. Now how credible is the source is for Jilo has yet to be seen.

He is quite a high ranking contact who was just recently promoted to TKMS Asia and probably suss out the possibility of a U212 derivative to RAN to replace our Collins in a couple of years time. Naturally in regards to the South Asian procurement cycle he was only giving me vague specifics and I have left Pakistan too long to ascertain the exact details of the procurement process under Musharraf. What I do know is that the sale must have cabinet level clearance from the Pakistani side-and a Federal National Security Council clearance from the German side as well as significant input with the foreign ministry. In other words the German side and TKMS must be willing to authorize and bid for the tender in response to an RFP which as far as I know has not been forthcoming.

Now I base my speculation on these key trends the defence industry has observed these last four years. The IN has had severe issues as Agnostic Muslim mentioned with delays and cost overruns for key naval programs-especially Project 75 (licensed Scorpene) which will critically weaken the IN submarine arm if the first hulls do not start hitting the water in 2012 as the two foxtrots have "survivability issues" in wartime and the Type 209s are wearing out. The IN has set a requirement for 22 SSKs by 2020 (maybe too ambitious) and apparently DCNS have been refusing to transfer key technologies of an "unspecified type" (read:EW and C3) to the Mazagoan shipyard for local production. I don't know why, India has a spotless record of not copying defence tech unlike China which is why everyone wants to do business with them-perhaps some of our Indian friends can assist us?

In any case state owned Mazagoan is the only shipyard the IN trusts to manufacture SSKs under license which rules out other private yards like Hinduistan-creating this backlog as Mazagoan is also repsonsible for every other major surface combatant India is producing indigenously. In short, this means that in order to achieve the numbers IN will be forced to import at least six SSKs and the incentive is that some of these probably will be constructed in their home countries to meet the 2020 date as opposed to PN's requirement that they be locally manufactured under licence. Now while the Indian defence bureaucracy is India's worst enemy, critical interests like these get prioritised as the admirals have New Delhi's ear-expect to see an RFP issued this year at Euronaval or the next.

Obviously TKMS intends to bid this time as it offers possible German manufacture of at least two U214, existing synergies with the Type 209s in IN and a chance to increase IN interest in more German naval products from TKMS. If I were a TKMS executive I'd be leveraging all options I have to win this deal and that means not bidding for a PN RFP as the Indians won't be happy to operate a similar platform, emphasising the U214's superb EW suite, IDAS, D2A4 etc. -and the fact my company won't get beaten on kickbacks

Naturally I could be entirely wrong as this is my synthesised informed guess based on experience and knowledge I have accumulated on the Asian defence scene-it really depends on how fast the Indians make known their requirements to interested parties through back channels(note this is even before a RFP) and how much pressure they can bear on the Germans (quite a lot due to the Indo-German MoU signed earlier this month opening up the Indian market to German vendors).

 

[EagleEyes]

You both have very valid points. But i doubt thats how its going to work out.

 

[Jliu]

You both have very valid points. But i doubt thats how its going to work out.

Thank you Webmaster.

May I ask what you believe to be the procurement process?

The only scenario I can think of where the Germans may offer the U214 to the PN is if the IN prematurely announces a strong preference for the Marlin (unlikely as IN procurement brass are known for selecting tried&tested designs) or if they placate the Indians by offering the overmatching capability wise U212 (possible-the French did it successfully with your 90B and the subsequent IN Scorpene MUL) to completely undercut the French in the South Asian market. The Germans will obviously be under pressure to sell hardware to increase their currently abysmal market share-as well as face Spanish competition with their new S-80A which offers a US C3 sensor fit comparable to the BSY-1 we have in our Collins.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

moving Indian sub requirement posts to correct thread.

http://www.defence.pk/forums/indian...obal-tenders-acquire-six-more-submarines.html