Pakistan's Rising Economy; US Democratic Party Convention; Modi's Crackdown on AAP

[RiazHaq]

http://www.riazhaq.com/2016/08/pakistans-rising-economy-us-democratic.html


How's Pakistan's economy doing? What do broad economic indicators of risingconsumption of energy, autos, cement and steel show? Do these indicators confirm government's GDP growth figures? How are the investors responding to these indicators? What is the impact of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects on the economic activity in the country?


How do the two major party conventions in 2016 compare? Did one party do a better job of appealing to the broad electorate better than the other? Who's more ready to be the next US president? Hillary or Trump? Who's better for ethnic and religious minorities, particularly Pakistani-Americans and Muslim-Americans? How was the DNC speech by Pakistani-American Khizr Khan, the father of slain war hero US Army Captain Humayun Khan, received by the DNC delegates and the broader US public? Was it effective in fighting Trump's overt Islamophobia?

Why is the Modi government arresting nearly a dozen Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) MLAs? Why did the Indian government choose to do it now? Is AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal justified in fearing for his life? Are these AAP leaders' arrests and various forms of intimidation timed to hamstring AAP's chances in upcoming state elections in Goa, Gujarat and Punjab?

Viewpoint From Overseas host Misbah Azam discusses these questions with panelists Ali H. Cemendtaur and Riaz Haq (www.riazhaq.com)

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Pakistan's Rising Economy

Trump Phenomenon

Trump's Muslim Ban

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

Is Modi's Honeymoon Over?

Talk4Pak Think Tank

VPOS Youtube Channel

VPOS Vimeo Channel

VPOS Dailymotion Channel


http://www.riazhaq.com/2016/08/pakistans-rising-economy-us-democratic.html

 

[cloud4000]

How's Pakistan's economy doing? What do broad economic indicators of risingconsumption of energy, autos, cement and steel show? Do these indicators confirm government's GDP growth figures? How are the investors responding to these indicators? What is the impact of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects on the economic activity in the country?

My thoughts:

1. Whether the GDP figure cited by the government should be scrutinized by diving into the underlying data. Just taking a government's word for it does no one anyone good. GDP figures are manipulated to suit the narrative. This is not only true for Pakistan, but every country that cites such outlandish GDP figures, including China and India.
2. The CPEC impact, though prominent, is yet to be felt. The key to CPEC is not the corridor, but the vast investment in energy project. This is where Pakistan will benefit the most. The end of loadshedding and increase in energy supply will benefit both consumers and business.
3. The severe reduction of terrorism in Pakistan is boosting not only consumer confidence but investor confidence as well. People are spending money on non-discretionary items is a good sign. Increase interest in the stock market is also a strong indicator.

Pakistan has a ways to go, of course, but at least it's pointing in the right direction.

 

[Jhon Smith]

http://www.riazhaq.com/2016/08/pakistans-rising-economy-us-democratic.html




Viewpoint From Overseas host Misbah Azam discusses these questions with panelists Ali H. Cemendtaur and Riaz Haq (www.riazhaq.com)



http://www.riazhaq.com/2016/08/pakistans-rising-economy-us-democratic.html

These are the '10 emerging markets of the future'

Pakistan will develop as a manufacturing hub over the coming years.Image: REUTERS/Caren FirouzWritten byChloe PfeifferMarkets Reporting

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A new report from BMI Research has identified the "10 emerging markets of the future" — the countries that are set to become new drivers of economic growth over the next 10 years.BMI estimates that these countries will cumulatively add $4.3 trillion to global GDP by 2025 — roughly the equivalent of Japan's current economy.In general, manufacturing and construction are the sectors that will drive the economies. BMI reports that new manufacturing hubs are set to emerge in Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Pakistan, and that these countries will see particularly strong growth in exporting manufacturing industries. And construction growth is going to be widespread throughout all the countries — partly to facilitate increases in urban populations and partly to help develop the manufacturing sector.On the other hand, extractive industries — like mining, oil, and gas — are going to play a far smaller role in driving growth than they have the past 15 years.While it might provide bright spots for some countries, the report states, "the ubiquitous commodity-driven growth model that was derailed by the 2012-2015 collapse in commodity prices is not coming back."Here are the 10 new emerging markets and the sectors that drive their growth:

Bangladesh

Primary sector: AgribusinessKey exports: Garments, agricultural products2015 GDP growth: 6.4%Unemployment rate: 4.9%Exchange rate: 77.42 Bangladeshi taka per US dollar"Bangladesh's export-oriented industrial sector already accounts for more than a quarter of GDP and will continue to develop as a global manufacturing hub in the coming years."

Egypt

Primary sector: Natural gasKey exports: Oil, fruits and vegetables, cotton2015 GDP growth: 4.2%Unemployment rate: 12.8%Exchange rate: 7.72 Egyptian pounds per dollar"We expect continued investment across the housing sector in Egypt, given the almost 1 million additional urban residents per year that we forecast over the next 10 years. There will be some investment in Egypt's large manufacturing export base in a continuation of recent investment in the autos and food sectors."

Ethiopia

Primary sector: AgribusinessKey exports: Coffee, oilseeds, vegetables, gold2015 GDP growth: 10.2%Unemployment rate: 16.8%Exchange rate: 21.55 Ethiopian birr per dollar"Construction to meet rapid urbanisation and ambitious state infrastructure targets will be the main driver of economic growth in Ethiopia ... Ethiopia's construction industry will record the highest growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, averaging real annual growth of 10.7% between 2016 and 2025."

Indonesia

Primary sector: AgribusinessKey exports: Mineral fuels, machinery parts2015 GDP growth: 4.8%Unemployment rate: 5.5%Exchange rate: 13,577.6 Indonesian rupiah per dollar"Growth in Indonesia will be far less commodities-centric than over the past decade, as the mining and oil and gas sectors will stagnate ... The government remains committed to developing a manufacturing-based export economy by boosting infrastructure spending and streamlining bureaucracy."

Kenya

Primary sector: N/AKey exports: Tea, horticultural products, coffee2015 GDP growth: 5.6%Unemployment rate: 40%Exchange rate: 99.73 Kenyan shillings per dollar"As Kenya imports almost all of its energy needs, lower average oil prices over the next decade compared to the previous decade will boost both Kenyan consumption and non-energy investment. Growth will be centered in ... infrastructure (including renewable energy), financial services and retail trade."

Myanmar

Primary sector: MiningKey exports: Natural gas, wood products2015 GDP growth: 7%Unemployment rate: 5%Exchange rate: 1,171.8 Burmese kyat per dollar"Investment will continue to pour into a range of industries as Myanmar reaps the benefits of substantial political reform enacted since 2010. We believe that the trends of economic liberalisation and political democratisation will remain in place and keep the economy on track for strong growth over the coming years."

Nigeria

Primary sector: N/AKey exports: Oil, cocoa2015 GDP growth: 2.7%Unemployment rate: 23.9%Exchange rate: 196.9 Nigerian naira per dollar"The significant growth that we forecast for Nigeria's economy will be principally driven by the secondary and tertiary sectors of the economy. Financial services are a bright spot due to the relatively low penetration of financial services in the country. Retail sales will grow strongly, though mostly in the low value goods segment due to the fact that essentials spending remaining at around three quarters of total household income."

Pakistan

Primary sector: Agribusiness, oilKey exports: Textiles, rice2015 GDP growth: 4.2%Unemployment rate: 6.5%Exchange rate: 101.45 Pakistani rupees per dollar"Pakistan will develop as a manufacturing hub over the coming years, with the textile and automotive sectors posting the fastest growth at the beginning of our forecast period. Domestic manufacturing investment will be boosted by the windfall from lower energy prices compared to the last decade, and improved domestic energy supply."

Philippines

Primary sector: N/AKey exports: Semiconductors and electronic products, transport equipment2015 GDP growth: 5.8%Unemployment rate: 6.3%Exchange rate: 45.503 Philippine pesos per dollar"Key sectors will include autos and construction. Robust private consumption and a booming construction sector will translate into growing demand for both passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles ... Ongoing economic and business environment reforms, such as an anti-corruption drive, have made the Philippines more conducive for investment."

Vietnam

Primary sector: Agribusiness, oil refiningKey exports: Clothes, shoes, electronics2015 GDP growth: 6.7%Unemployment rate: 3%Exchange rate: 21,928 Vietnamese dong per dollar"We expect the manufacturing and construction sectors to outperform... thus helping to underpin growth in the broader industrial sector. These sectors will remain attractive to foreign investors, owing to relatively low labour costs [and] the government's gradual relaxation of foreign ownership restrictions rules."Data from the CIA World Factbook

Source

 

[Great Sachin]

 

[RiazHaq]

Hunt for returns reaches emerging #Pakistan with KSE-100 new highs with 20% return YTD in US$ terms #CPEC http://on.wsj.com/2aI6nqL via @WSJ

Ross Teverson, head of emerging-market strategy at $49 billion money manager Jupiter Asset Management, has a new star pick: Pakistan.

The country wasn’t even considered an emerging market when he decided to invest. Until earlier this summer, it was a rung lower—a “frontier” market, where stocks are notoriously hard to trade and the political climate is tumultuous. And yet, the benchmark KSE-100 stock index is up 20% in dollar terms this year, Exhibit A in how far global investors are willing to go for returns these days.

Sluggish growth in developed economies has prompted central banks to push interest rates down to zero and beyond, wiping out yields on government debt and sending investors into all sorts of fringe or previously unloved markets such as Pakistan’s.

By estimates, since March more than $67 billion has poured into a group of 30 emerging markets tracked by the Institute of International Finance. That number doesn’t include money heading to markets such as China and Russia, where information on foreign buying is limited.

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“Emerging markets have been broadly out of favor with global investors for the better part of four years,” said Mr. Teverson, whose investment in Pakistan helped his fund gain 17% this year through June. “When you have seen an asset class out of favor for so long and you see valuations so low, that inflow can be sustained for a long period.”

 

[Paksanity]

 

[Great Sachin]

View attachment 322444

well...India is not taking loan to pay loan....as per your attached picture....Russia should be best economy and Japan should be worst

 

[RiazHaq]

well...India is not taking loan to pay loan....as per your attached picture....Russia should be best economy and Japan should be worst

Really?

So how does India service its debts when it is running huge budget and trade deficits year after year?

Doesn't it need more loans to pay loans?

http://www.riazhaq.com/2015/04/can-indian-economy-survive-without.html

 

[Paksanity]

well...India is not taking loan to pay loan....as per your attached picture....Russia should be best economy and Japan should be worst

It is. And that's exactly how you amassed so much debt. If you would have taken time to look at that map it's debt to GDP ratio!

If sheeps of BJP don't discuss it, doesn't mean it's not happening.

 

[Great Sachin]

It is. And that's exactly how you amassed so much debt. If you would have taken time to look at that map it's debt to GDP ratio!

If sheeps of BJP don't discuss it, doesn't mean it's not happening.

wow

Really?

So how does India service its debts when it is running huge budget and trade deficits year after year?

Doesn't it need more loans to pay loans?

http://www.riazhaq.com/2015/04/can-indian-economy-survive-without.html

RiazHaq deserves lal topi