Pakistan's repayments on CPEC to peak at $5b in 2022: chief economist

[Vigneshwara]

The Chinese are very good at business, they always look for win-win situation the only problem is both the wins would be theirs.

 

[Stuttgart001]

The Chinese are very good at business, they always look for win-win situation the only problem is both the wins would be theirs.

A lot of nations benefit from business with China, like Japan , Germany, Australia ,SOK , etc.
Why are you always talking BS ?
Is that really hard for you guy to be rational and open-minded ?

Its well over 2 million jobs initially by 2022. But then, you'd have new Cities being built across the route and that would require residents, new schools, hospitals, airports, doctors, engineers, constructions companies and workers, hotels, gas stations, grocery stores. I don't think anyone here understands how big of an economic boom is about to happen in Pakistan in the next 5-7 years!

Yeah.
Gwadar will be another Shanghai or Singapore .
Pakisitan bro.
Work hard and make your state be a paradise.

 

[Tom M]

A lot of nations benefit from business with China, like Japan , Germany, Australia ,SOK , etc.
Why are you always talking BS ?
Is that really hard for you guy to be rational and open-minded ?

No. Actually I sincerely wish that CPEC prove to be a real game changer for Pakistan Economy. But don't you think Pakistan should thing beyond China as well, dependence only on China is it ?? It's never a good idea to put all you eggs in one basket.

 

[Stuttgart001]

No. Actually I sincerely wish that CPEC prove to be a real game changer for Pakistan Economy. But don't you think Pakistan should thing beyond China as well, dependence only on China is it ?? It's never a good idea to put all you eggs in one basket.

Stop nonsense.
The allies of US nearly 100% depend on US in economy and defense.
Look at how advanced they are , Japan, SOK ,Singapore ..etc.

Furthermore,China and Paskitan depend each other to rebuild the silk road ,and without Pakistan, China couldn't make it.
CPEC is a part of OBOR ,that is a big and international project that lots of countries cooperate together on, a significant step of globalisation .
China invests the infrastructure of Pakistan to make it more attractive to other nation's capital.

The first step is the hardest for everything and China has the will and strength to help Pakistan
move forward the first step in the process of his modernization.

It is OK that India doesn't participate, but stop spouting shit and just stand aside and watch us doing practical things.

 

[STEVEN囧]

Indian members here should not be blinded by historical hatred and feud.Nowadays we talk about collaboration and cooperation,try our best to reduce the poverty and illiteracy.So it is no use to drive a wedge between China and other nations.Indian actually is a smart businessman in my view because I have some Indian customers.But frankly you always lose your edge to get a win-win situation with Russian in terms of military business but with China in terms of private business.

The Chinese are very good at business, they always look for win-win situation the only problem is both the wins would be theirs.

 

[Stuttgart001]

Indian members here should not be blinded by historical hatred and feud.Nowadays we talk about collaboration and cooperation,try our best to reduce the poverty and illiteracy.So it is no use to drive a wedge between China and other nations.Indian actually is a smart businessman in my view because I have some Indian customers.But frankly you always lose your edge to get a win-win situation with Russian in terms of military business but with China in terms of private business.

The indian businessman get used to take advantage of others and so cheap.
At last, these tiny tricks would make them lose more.

 

[Tom M]

The indian businessman get used to take advantage of others and so cheap.
At last, these tiny tricks would make them lose more.

And do you seriously think India and Indian business are on the loosing side of history ?? LOL

If at-least the Chinese government thought so, there wouldn't have been an article in this prominent Chinese daily.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1046327.shtml

China and India are two neighboring countries with the largest populations in the world, an unusual geographical phenomenon. With a population of 1.38 billion, China's GDP grew 6.7 percent to more than $10 trillion in 2016, while the Indian Central Statistics Office estimated India's GDP growth for the full fiscal 2016-17 at 7.1 per cent.

While Indian GDP may lag far behind, the country remains a potential emerging market that has high attractiveness for global capital. A survey by Ernst & Young (EY) ranked India as the most attractive investment destination in the world. Among 500 executives from multinational companies involved in the survey, 60 percent considered India one of the top three investment destinations in 2015. The country's vast domestic market, low labor costs and skilled labor market are its most attractive features. As China's demographic dividend diminishes, India, with half of its population below the age of 25, is poised to take advantage.

An increasing number of Chinese companies have invested in India in recent years, covering such sectors as hardware, software and marketing. Smartphone manufacturers like Vivo, OPPO and Lenovo have already entered the Indian market; while mobile tools like SHAREit, UC Browser, Cheetah Mobile and APUS have also been downloaded by vast amounts of users. It is noteworthy that Chinese companies' investment in India has shifted from simply marketing to research and development (R&D). For instance, Chinese telecom company Huawei Technologies Co invested $170 million to open an R&D facility in Bengaluru, and announced its plan to join Prime Minister Narendra Modi's "Make in India" campaign.

Just as what happened with China in the past, the changes that are taking place in India may also point to great potential for development. With a large population of young people, which is not only the labor force but also a potential consumer group, India has the possibility of seeing explosive economic growth in the future. Therefore, we must pay close attention to the development of this unfamiliar neighbor.

One of our researchers raised a question: If India decided to copy China, what impact would it have and what should China do? By copying China, India may also develop an Internet economy and boost its infrastructure construction, along with investment-driven growth. In other words, India may turn itself into China 2.0, and let global investors decide whether to invest in China or India.

In our opinion, if India intentionally creates a competitive situation in front of global investors, it will pose a challenge for China. Because generally speaking, India does have the conditions to copy China's economic growth model thanks to its vast size and market, low labor costs and large population, which are all similar to China's conditions. In fact, based on the EY report, global investors are currently undecided.

Moreover, there are growing signs that India is succeeding in attracting more and more investment, which China should take seriously.

The Indian government appears confident about attracting investment. At present, India is committed to solar energy development, which attracts a large number of foreign investors. Prime Minister Modi hopes to boost the usage of clean energy over fossil fuels by building massive solar parks and is targeting $100 billion in investment in solar energy in the next five years, with the backing of loans from the World Bank. No other country could compete with India in supporting investors in the solar economy.

It should be pointed out that China has not conducted enough studies on India. From the perspective of think tanks, China cannot wait until India grows into an apparently promising competitor before discussing how to deal with the situation.

As such, China should develop a more effective growth strategy for the new era or it may become an unfortunate bystander watching India's success.

China needs to ponder and study the rise of the Indian economy carefully. With a young population, it is entirely possible for the emerging market economy to become China 2.0 to gain the attention of world capital.

The article was compiled based on a report by Beijing-based private strategic think tank Anbound. bizopinion@globaltimes.com.cn
Newspaper headline: China should be wary of Indian competition

Indian members here should not be blinded by historical hatred and feud.Nowadays we talk about collaboration and cooperation,try our best to reduce the poverty and illiteracy.So it is no use to drive a wedge between China and other nations.Indian actually is a smart businessman in my view because I have some Indian customers.But frankly you always lose your edge to get a win-win situation with Russian in terms of military business but with China in terms of private business.

Yep, there is parity and a big deficit does exist, but does that mean it's something achievable ?? In fact if you can go be the statistics of last few decades, there are certain areas where the gap has by and large reduced and some sectors where we have outperformed, for example Generic Medicines etc.

So telling that India always loose is technically not fully right.

Yeah.
Gwadar will be another Shanghai or Singapore .
Pakisitan bro.
Work hard and make your state be a paradise.

Never in short to mid-term as long as tight competition is available in and around the region. But yes, in long term it is very prospective.

 

[STEVEN囧]

And do you seriously think India and Indian business are on the loosing side of history ?? LOL

If at-least the Chinese government thought so, there wouldn't have been an article in this prominent Chinese daily.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1046327.shtml



Yes.India develops very fast within years since Prime minister Modi came into power.India has a great superiority of labor resource and a large market like China.But frankly China is more opened to foregin direct investment,threshold is lower and restriction is less.Technology and Industry is updated more in India nowadays but market could prompt your pace of transformation and development.I suggest India should reduce the likes of red tapes and crack down on the corruption to open the market and facilitate competition.It could raise more and more technical workers for yourself.Frankly I am so sorry that India would rather stand up but participate in the OBOR.If we just consider ourselves,there is no chance for the OBOR summit this month.If it is not win-win cooperation,nobody would resonate.So don't consider this route with bias.Aisa is ours!


Yep, there is parity and a big deficit does exist, but does that mean it's something achievable ?? In fact if you can go be the statistics of last few decades, there are certain areas where the gap has by and large reduced and some sectors where we have outperformed, for example Generic Medicines etc.

So telling that India always loose is technically not fully right.



Never in short to mid-term as long as tight competition is available in and around the region. But yes, in long term it is very prospective.

 

[MULUBJA]

Here is something people don't get. Gawadar port is not just for China. Us Pakistani can use it as well. Local exports will rise. People can start opening business for the solo purpose for exporting, which would be relatively easier to do, now with a much better infrastructure. So money will come from here as well. My advice to people, start thinking like entrepreneurs. Think about owning your own business, rather then working for one.

Everything you quoted can be done without Gwadar with many other Pakistani ports.

 

[AnnoyingOrange]

Pakistan has lost 180 cloth mills in past one year.. exports are down to a new low ...balance of payments is going heywire... CPEC is the latest Jhunjhuna that Pakistan leadership has given to Pakistani Awam to play for some time while leaders are busy making money from kickbacks.

 

[DJ_Viper]

The Chinese are very good at business, they always look for win-win situation the only problem is both the wins would be theirs.

I guess I can see your point. Win 1: they connected their strongest ally with the global trade and ensured that from Central Russia till Western China, a huge portion of the trade goes through Pakistan. Which makes them money.
Win 2: Their strongest ally will only help them further and use its own influence on the ME to help the Chinese grow more. Which means, many billions for China and many more for Pakistan.

I guess you didn't think about win # 3: Pakistan will be becoming one of the top 15 economies. Which means they will actually have a stronger defense industry (building Jets to Combat heli's as they just signed a deal with Turkey) and will be using one of the largest and youngest labor pool (over80 million people between the ages of 15-24 years and male), to send overseas and grow their $$ footprint even more. This labor can speak English, can do had work and engineering / IT work, etc, etc. Which then puts a dent in India's core export.....aka, the labor. So you are right. Chinese are smart businessmen and ONLY look at their and Pakistan's interests!

 

[Vigneshwara]

I guess I can see your point. Win 1: they connected their strongest ally with the global trade and ensured that from Central Russia till Western China, a huge portion of the trade goes through Pakistan. Which makes them money.
Win 2: Their strongest ally will only help them further and use its own influence on the ME to help the Chinese grow more. Which means, many billions for China and many more for Pakistan.

I guess you didn't think about win # 3: Pakistan will be becoming one of the top 15 economies. Which means they will actually have a stronger defense industry (building Jets to Combat heli's as they just signed a deal with Turkey) and will be using one of the largest and youngest labor pool (over80 million people between the ages of 15-24 years and male), to send overseas and grow their $$ footprint even more. This labor can speak English, can do had work and engineering / IT work, etc, etc. Which then puts a dent in India's core export.....aka, the labor. So you are right. Chinese are smart businessmen and ONLY look at their and Pakistan's interests!

Good fantasy thinking, never has been in history any country became rich due to trade route, in that case panama would have become the richest but that did not happen. Countries do not become prosperous due to labour but due to technology, the chinese are still not considered as forefront in technology and are not even considered in advanced technologies(copying is not considered as R&D).

 

[Pak.one]

Good fantasy thinking, never has been in history any country became rich due to trade route, in that case panama would have become the richest but that did not happen. Countries do not become prosperous due to labour but due to technology, the chinese are still not considered as forefront in technology and are not even considered in advanced technologies(copying is not considered as R&D).

Oh hello who are you?so much worried about our country. we want, we will get that's all don't you waste your precious indian mind on our CPEC projects gaining and losing ok mind your own business

 

[ashok mourya]

ISLAMABAD:

Pakistan’s debt and other repayments on China’s “Belt and Road” initiative will peak at around $5 billion in 2022, but will be more than offset by transit fees charged on the new transport corridor, says the Pakistan government’s chief economist.


China has pledged to invest up to $57 billion in Pakistan’s rail, road and energy infrastructure through its vast modern-day “Silk Road” network of trade routes linking Asia with Europe and Africa.

Officials expect a huge uptick in trade between the two nations once Pakistan’s Arabian Sea port of Gwadar is functional and work on motorways is finished allowing goods to cross the Himalayas to and from China’s western Xinjiang province.

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship “Belt and Road” project, has been credited with helping revive Pakistan’s sluggish economy, but investors have raised concerns that Pakistan’s currency could come under severe pressure once debt repayments begin and Chinese firms start taking profits home.

China says Silk Road plan is not tied to presidency

Nadeem Javaid, who advises Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s government and works closely on the CPEC programme, told Reuters that such fears are misplaced as Islamabad would earn vast fees from charging vehicles moving goods from and to China.

Javaid said the Gwadar-Xinjiang corridor should be operational from June next year, and Pakistan expects up to 4% of global trade to pass through it by 2020.

“The kind of toll tax, rental fees that the Pakistani system will gain is roughly $6-$8 billion a year,” Javaid, chief economist at the planning ministry, said in an interview. “By 2020, I expect we will get this much momentum.”

He said China has huge incentives to transport oil and other goods bound for its western regions through Pakistan as the Gwadar-Xinjiang corridor shaves some 9,500 miles (15,000 km) off other traditional routes.

It doesn’t take long to imagine the savings on the many millions of litres of fuel, he said.

Investors are watching Pakistan’s ballooning current account deficit, which widened by more than 160% to $6.1 billion in the nine months to March, largely due to imports of machinery for big CPEC projects.

Javaid said debt repayments and profit repatriation from CPEC projects will begin in 2019, totalling about $1.5-$1.9 billion, and rising to $3-$3.5 billion by the following year.

“It would be low in the beginning, and in 2022 it will peak at around $5 billion – not more than that,” said the chief economist, adding that the government does not think it likely that Pakistan will face a balance of payments crisis.

The last such crisis in 2013 saw Islamabad turn to the International Monetary Fund for help.

Javaid said the CPEC should boost economic growth, which he expects to hit 5.2% in 2016-17. Exports should also pick up once CPEC power projects totalling 7,000 megawatts come online and reduce the often crippling energy shortages.

Deepening political and military ties between Pakistan and China have helped closer financial integration, too, with Chinese companies starting to buy Pakistani firms and land.

Javaid said the two countries have also discussed using a currency swap agreement between their central banks to create a mechanism to avoid any third currency in international transactions.

“If some mechanism is going to be finalised on that, it will work as a buffer or a cushion that’s going to basically avoid or prevent any kind of default that could happen in unforeseen circumstances.”

But he added, “It’s only a contingency arrangement in case something bad happens.”
https://tribune.com.pk/story/1406335/pakistans-repayments-cpec-peak-5b-2022-chief-economist/

Is there any pipe line project to transfer oil from gwadar to Xinjiang. If oil will transport by pipe how you will tax them ?

 

[Morpheus]

Is there any pipe line project to transfer oil from gwadar to Xinjiang. If oil will transport by pipe how you will tax them ?

Use the ships capacity to calculate tax, when it comes to delivery oil.