Pakistan's GDP next 10-20 years?

[F-16_Falcon]

lol stop crying and take take things into your own hands its when individuals start doing something about a greater problem...that when real change ocurrs.

who is giving me something that I will take in my own hand? In Pakistan everyone wants to be president and prime minister.

 

[VelocuR]

This thread is specifically Pakistan's Economy, not Imran Khan or trolls arguments.

Everyone, PLEASE HEALTHY DISCUSSION IN MATURE MANNERS!

 

[AUz]

QUOTE=F-16_Falcon;1355155]Imran is a cricketer not leader.[/QUOTE]

Musharraf was a Military General
Imran Khan was the captain of Pakistan Cricket team that won 1992 worldcup.So he does have some leadership qualities.

And million dollar question is ....If not Imran then who?

 

[Evil Flare]

Mustafa Kamal

 

[Hyde]

for increasing per capita income we need 8% growth rate according to planning commission's estimate. otherwise this expected bulge in labor force will turn into a disaster. remember much of population is youth meaning they will need jobs

I heard we need to create about 4 million jobs each year for youth planning to work for the first time.

We need 6% growth rate to create 4 million jobs in the country

 

[IamINDIA]

who is giving me something that I will take in my own hand? In Pakistan everyone wants to be president and prime minister.

lol u have it ,u have FREEDOM and thats all u need to bring about change

 

[Karachiite]

After America pulls out of Afghanistan, hopefully by 2013 or 2014 Pakistan's GDP will grow by atleast 8%. But by 2012 we should be growing 5-6%.

Great leaders like Musharraf pulled us out of bankruptcy and made great economic reforms. We can achieve even more with a sincere leader who is willing to combat feudalism,terrorism, corruption and religious fundies.

 

[TechLahore]

My take is that we'll average 6% over the next 5 years. We'll average 7% in the 5 after that, and anywhere from 8-10% in the 5 years after that.

My logic is that a couple of the GDP suppressors (floods, earthquakes) were "flukes" and statistically cannot be expected to repeat themselves over and over. So, assuming that these issues contributed to a 2-3% GDP growth impact, and also considering that we are growing at 4+% despite them, then the 6% average under similar political conditions, but improved environmental (as in acts of God) conditions should yield 6%.

Beyond this, we should start to see the benefits of an improved power infrastructure (availability of power to industry will continue to increase in the next 5 years), industries like IT and defence will be measurably substantial even at current rates of growth and deals on the table, and a more educated workforce will start to pay dividends. I say more educated because the literacy rate amongst 55-60 year old Pakistanis who will be retiring in the next 5 years, is lower than that amongst 13+ year old Pakistanis who will be entering the workforce in the next 5 years.

Beyond this 10 year period, we will have almost completely addressed power shortages, our irrigation and water management would have improved measurably (even assuming private sector initiatives), the fruits of many of the deals with Turkey/Iran (Istanbul-Tehran-Islamabad railway), China (transit trade, Gwadar) and the Oil Pipelines (IPC, TAPI) should be in full swing. The modernization of our agriculture sector and specifically the hunt for additional export markets for milk and meat products (e.g. the current nascent engagement with Malaysia) should also be more developed. Given that we are world's 5th largest milk producer with over 60 million animals in the country, these things can be hugely relevant.

Somewhere in the 5-10 year horizon, some solution would have materialized for Railways, PIA and so on. These will be draws for FDI as the telecom sector has been.

I am pretty confident that the estimates above are very conservative. The IMF's regional director is on record as stating that Pakistan's potential for GDP growth is 8+%, so I am not the only one saying these things.

If we do a couple of even slightly intelligent things, such as mandates for agricultural modernization aided by subsidies, we can grow our GDP easily at 10+%. But I am assuming in all my estimates above that there is no substantial change in the competence level of the Government in power.

 

[TechLahore]

In 5 years, my prediction should yield a GDP (nominal) of:

$263B

In 10 years, it should be at (nominal):

$370B

And in 15 years, it should be at (nominal):

2025: $570B


This should translate into a GDP-PPP of roughly $1.4 Trillion.

 

[Hulk]

My take is that we'll average 6% over the next 5 years. We'll average 7% in the 5 after that, and anywhere from 8-10% in the 5 years after that.

My logic is that a couple of the GDP suppressors (floods, earthquakes) were "flukes" and statistically cannot be expected to repeat themselves over and over. So, assuming that these issues contributed to a 2-3% GDP growth impact, and also considering that we are growing at 4+% despite them, then the 6% average under similar political conditions, but improved environmental (as in acts of God) conditions should yield 6%.

Beyond this, we should start to see the benefits of an improved power infrastructure (availability of power to industry will continue to increase in the next 5 years), industries like IT and defence will be measurably substantial even at current rates of growth and deals on the table, and a more educated workforce will start to pay dividends. I say more educated because the literacy rate amongst 55-60 year old Pakistanis who will be retiring in the next 5 years, is lower than that amongst 13+ year old Pakistanis who will be entering the workforce in the next 5 years.

Beyond this 10 year period, we will have almost completely addressed power shortages, our irrigation and water management would have improved measurably (even assuming private sector initiatives), the fruits of many of the deals with Turkey/Iran (Istanbul-Tehran-Islamabad railway), China (transit trade, Gwadar) and the Oil Pipelines (IPC, TAPI) should be in full swing. The modernization of our agriculture sector and specifically the hunt for additional export markets for milk and meat products (e.g. the current nascent engagement with Malaysia) should also be more developed. Given that we are world's 5th largest milk producer with over 60 million animals in the country, these things can be hugely relevant.

Somewhere in the 5-10 year horizon, some solution would have materialized for Railways, PIA and so on. These will be draws for FDI as the telecom sector has been.

I am pretty confident that the estimates above are very conservative. The IMF's regional director is on record as stating that Pakistan's potential for GDP growth is 8+%, so I am not the only one saying these things.

If we do a couple of even slightly intelligent things, such as mandates for agricultural modernization aided by subsidies, we can grow our GDP easily at 10+%. But I am assuming in all my estimates above that there is no substantial change in the competence level of the Government in power.

You are hoping too much from your politicians.

 

[TechLahore]

You are hoping too much from your politicians.

I guess you didn't read my post:

" But I am assuming in all my estimates above that there is no substantial change in the competence level of the Government in power."

 

[Xestan]

I think, the whols story is gonna change after US withdrawal of Afghanistan, onece the Americans are out, OUR problems are solved

If in the year 2003 we were growing with the figure of 8.5, why can't this happen again in 2014

 

[Hyde]

If our energy issues are resolved, we will have hundreds of thousands of Jobs created in energy sector. Auto-revival of industries and great boost towards GDP

I suppose once the coal gasification project is matured and the Gold is started being produced, we shall witness a growth rate of 10% +

 

[SMC]

We are scheduled to grow at 6% starting in 2012. After that, depending on the security situation and the government, it can go up to 10%.

The circumstances currently are difficult. Earthquake, WoT, floods, utterly corrupt and incompetent government. The first three factors are obviously temporary and will not last a whole long time. The effects of earthquake and floods will last maybe 1-2 years more. WoT might end by 2015. Not so sure about corrupt government however. But even with corrupt government, we can get 8% growth if the other the factors I mentioned are not creating a problem.

 

[Hyde]

The way we are trying to depend upon minerals in the coming years

I won't be surprised to see us growing at 15% per year at least once in the next 10 years.

Seriously I won't be surprised to see our economy averaging at 10% + per year post 2013