Honourable Patriot forever,
Any debate where rational arguments based on correct figures are used instead of emotional outbursts is always a pleasure to read. I concur with most of your post except your sentence “One cannot make sweeping statements like that.”
Kindly permit me to say why I consider the PTI government to be run by incompetent individuals. There are hundreds of instances, but I would limit myself to only a few.
IMO, providing well-run educational institutions is one of the elements of the most important tasks of the provincial government. I came across the following news item recently.
“University of Peshawar in deep financial crunch
Spokesman says no financial assistance from federal and KP govts despite repeated requests”
Link to full article:
https://nation.com.pk/29-Jan-2020/university-of-peshawar-in-deep-financial-crunch
PTI has been in power in the KPK for almost 8 years; therefore one cannot blame the previous gov’t on the state of its universities and /or the mismanagement in the construction of the Peshawar Metro project.
Nearly half of the Pakistanis living in Punjab; Law & order is essential for good governance but look at the state of Punjab Police.
PTI government changes Punjab IGP for sixth time in two years
By Staff Report, (Last Updated September 8, 202
Link to full article:
https://archive.pakistantoday.com.p...anges-punjab-igp-for-sixth-time-in-two-years/
Most laughable is the case of CCPO Omar Sheikh. may I dare to ask that if CCPO Omer Sheikh was such a valuable officer that his boss IG Glulam Dastgir had to go because of him, why Omer Sheikh himself only lasted 4 months.
Lahore CCPO Umar Sheikh removed from post
Published January 1, 2021
Link to full article:
https://www.dawn.com/news/1599061
Then there was the famous Sugar subsidy scandal.
Pakistan’s Wheat and Sugar Scandal Leaves Imran Khan Exposed
27 May 2020 Phoebe Sleet, Research Analyst, Global Food and Water Crises Research Programme
In May, the Pakistani Government
released the findings of the sugar commission inquiry’s report into a scandal that has implicated a number of political and business figures, including the leaders of two political parties, as well as close political allies of Imran Khan. The report found that a “cartel” of 88 sugar mills had exported sugar during a low yield year, underpaid growers faked records and manipulated prices, which contributed to an ongoing crisis in sugar prices that began in late 2018. The increase in sugar prices generated up to
76 billion Pakistani rupees ($720 million), more than half of which went to corrupt millers.
An investigation also revealed an
Rs5.35 billion ($50 million) irregularity in the wheat industry that led to four corruption references against the Sindh Food Department and flour mill owners in a related wheat scandal. A
sharp rise in flour prices and flour shortages have also been a recent source of discontent in Pakistan this year.
Full story at:
https://www.futuredirections.org.au...-and-sugar-scandal-leaves-imran-khan-exposed/
You could be one of the lucky ones whose family income exceeds 4 to 5 lakh Rupees per month and thus immune to nearly doubling the prices of daily food items necessary for everyday living. I come from a run-of-mill middle-class family and except for a handful; most of my relations earn less than one lakh per month. Nearly all complain that after paying the school fees, there is barely enough left to maintain a respectable living. I know this for a fact as my brothers & I are supporting the family of my youngest brother who died young and his son & daughter are still in college. In my opinion, the huge rise in essential commodities is primarily due to having incompetent people at the helm of affairs.
The most glaring example of ineptness was the Aviation Minister Ghulam Sarwar declaring on the floor of the National Assembly that the majority of PIA pilots had fake licenses! And he is still in his post.
What you said about the economy is generally true; however, in my humble opinion, if Imran Khan had not been so anti-IMF in the beginning and Pakistan had gone in their program from the start, it is likely that Pakistani economic woes would have been less severe.
Here is what the World Bank considers Pakistan’s near tern Economic outlook.
“Pakistan’s real GDP growth is estimated to have declined from 1.9 percent in FY19 to -1.5 percent in FY20. The first contraction in decades, this reflects the effects of COVID-19 containment measures that followed monetary and fiscal tightening prior to the outbreak. To curtail the spread of the pandemic, a partial lockdown – that included restrictions on air travel, inner-city public transport, religious/social gatherings and the closure of all schools and non-essential businesses – was imposed in March, and gradually eased from May 2020 onwards. This disrupted domestic supply and demand, as businesses were unable to operate and consumers curbed expenditures, which specifically affected services and industries. The services sector is estimated to have contracted, by over 1 present, while industrial production is expected to have declined even more, due to the high policy rates prior to the pandemic and plunging domestic and global demand thereafter. The agriculture sector, partially insulated from the effects of the containment measures, is estimated to have expanded modestly over the year.
On the demand side, private consumption is estimated to have contracted in FY20, as households reduced consumption amid the lockdown and dimmer employment prospects. Similarly, with heightened uncertainty, disrupted supply chains and a global slowdown, investment is estimated to have fallen drastically. Exports and imports also shrank given weaknesses in global trade and domestic demand. In contrast, government consumption growth rose, reflecting the rollout of the fiscal stimulus package to cushion the effects of the pandemic.
Despite weak activity, consumer price inflation rose from an average of 6.8 percent in FY19 to an average of 10.7 percent in FY20, due to surging food inflation, hikes in administered energy prices, and a weaker rupee, which depreciated 13.8 percent against the U.S. dollar in FY20. With elevated inflationary pressures, the policy rate was held at 13.25 percent from July to February but was subsequently lowered to 7.0 percent over the remainder of FY20 to support dwindling activity and as inflationary expectations fell amid the pandemic. The central bank also implemented multiple measures to provide liquidity support to firms. At end-FY20, the banking system remained well capitalized, though upticks in non-performing loans were beginning to erode capital buffers.
The current account deficit shrunk from 4.8 percent of GDP in FY19 to 1.1 percent of GDP in FY20, the narrowest since FY15, driven mainly by import values falling 19.3 percent. Total export values also contracted 7.5 percent due to weak global demand. Despite the global downturn, workers’ remittances increased relative to FY19, underpinning a wider income account surplus. Meanwhile, higher net foreign direct investment, and multilateral and bilateral disbursements, more than offset a decline in portfolio flows, leading to a larger financial account surplus. The balance of payments consequently swung to a surplus of 2.0 percent of GDP in FY20, and official foreign reserves increased to US$13.7 billion at end-June 2020, sufficient to finance 3.2 months of imports.
In FY20, the fiscal deficit narrowed to 8.1 percent of GDP from 9.0 percent in FY19. Total revenues rose to 15.3 percent of GDP due to higher non-tax revenue, as the central bank and the telecommunication authority repatriated large profits. Despite reforms, tax revenues slipped to 11.6 percent of GDP, with lower economic activity and larger tax expenditures. Expenditures rose mainly due to a fiscal stimulus package valued at around 2.9 percent of GDP, while the public debt, including guaranteed debt, increased to 93.0 percent of GDP by end-FY20.
While domestic economic activity is expected to recover, as lockdown measures are lifted and base effects materialize, Pakistan’s near-term economic prospects are subdued. Significant uncertainty over the evolution of the pandemic and availability of a vaccine, demand compression measures to curb imbalances, along with unfavorable external conditions, all weigh on the outlook. Economic growth is projected to remain below potential, averaging 1.3 percent for FY21-22. This baseline projection, which is highly uncertain, is predicated on the absence of significant infection flare ups or subsequent waves that would require further widespread lockdowns.
The current account deficit is expected to widen to an average of 1.5 percent of GDP over FY21-22, with imports and exports gradually picking up as domestic demand and global conditions improve. The fiscal deficit is projected to narrow to 7.4 percent in FY22, with the resumption of fiscal consolidation and stronger revenues driven by recovering economic activity and structural reform dividends. Expenditures will remain substantial due to sizeable interest payments and defense expenditures, a rising salary and pension bill, and absorption of energy SOE guaranteed debt by the government.
There are considerable downside risks to the outlook with the most significant being a resurgence of the COVID-19 infection, triggering a new wave of global and/or domestic lockdowns and further delaying the implementation of critical IMF structural reforms (slated to resume in H1-FY21). Locust attacks and heavy monsoon rains could lead to widespread crop damage, food insecurity and inflationary pressures. Livelihoods for households dependent primarily on agriculture could also be negatively impacted. Finally, external financing risks could be compounded by difficulties in rolling-over bilateral debt from non-traditional donors and tighter international financing conditions.”
Last Updated: Oct 08, 2020
https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/pakistan/overview
Finally, it is an accepted fact that no corruption scandal has been associated with Imran Khan and he himself is honest. Sadly, honesty alone does not make a person suitable for the job of the Prime Minister. Imran Khan and many of his associates were totally inexperienced and are learning the art of governance by doing it. Unfortunately, a poor country like Pakistan can ill afford such experimentation.
