Tuesday, September 18, 2012
COMMENT : Pakistans North Waziristan strategy Hussain Nadim
The militants must be destroyed and weeded out, and any political negotiations must come with the local tribesmen who are in support of Pakistan
The North Waziristan operation provides Pakistan with a critical opportunity, which will not only decide the fate of internal security in Pakistan, but more importantly, will lay down the course of US-Pakistan relations. While the remarks of General Kayani show the will and seriousness of the operation, it must also be implemented with substantial gains against the Haqqani network on the ground.
The operation in North Waziristan comes at a favourable time for Pakistan with militants already on the run due to drone strikes. Since the fate of US-Pakistan relations is dependent on this operation, the need for mutual and unconditional cooperation between the two countries becomes a necessity.
Pakistan, in this operation, faces two major technical loopholes. The ability of militants to escape into Afghanistan due to poor border security and hidden cave passages, and second, triggering civil discontent throughout the country due to a full military operation in the populated areas of North Waziristan including Miranshah. For the first problem, it should be known that Pakistan cannot win in North Waziristan alone, and the Pakistan army is well aware of this fact, despite its rhetoric on media against the possible collaboration with the US. To make this operation a success, American forces will have to play a large role of monitoring the border on the Afghanistan side. Enhancing security at the check posts and closely monitoring the borders is the key that will define long-term victory in the North Waziristan operation, and in the war against terrorism. In the case of militant escape into Afghanistan by dodging the check posts on the Pakistani side, the US must be ready to squeeze militants on the Afghan side.
A possible alternative would be to fence the border partially, but such an action would irritate the Afghanistan government. But in order to resolve the problem of safe havens and cross-border attacks, the borders might have to be fenced and checked in the long run.
Second, the Pakistan army should not directly go into a full operation. Low intensity warfare coupled with series of drone strikes from the US would be highly useful in rooting out militants from the cities and forcing them to areas where the Pakistan army can conduct a full fledged operation. For that, the Pakistan government must stop its face saving policy of denouncing drone strikes in the media. The government and the army should start owning drone strikes and come clean on how the drone technology is vital in the war against the militant groups in Pakistan.
While sharing the drone technology is a far-fetched idea, the US should at least start working on acquiring the consent of the Pakistan army on drone strikes and get prior validation to strike.
At this point of time, the people in Pakistan must understand how drones are actually working in the interests of Pakistan by avoiding an all out war in the cities, and by minimising civilian casualties. Only the media and government have the power to make people realise that, but since the government is too divided, and the opposition in parliament is not one with the sitting government on the issues of foreign policy, it would politicise the drone issue, which is the second loophole for the Pakistan army.
The strongest resistance is likely to come from the urban centres of Punjab with parties like the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, the Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf, and Islamic parties all coming on board against the operation, not North Waziristan itself where the actual war is going to take place. The urban centres, which have suffered the least from terrorism, are far more radicalised and anti-American compared to the rural areas and those places where the war is taking place. Hence we see large anti-drone rallies in the cities of Punjab where people have little firsthand experience of drones.
Having done ground research in Waziristan, I have noticed that people have lately become fed up with the growing mafia-style of militancy in the area. The operation in North Waziristan by the Pakistan army is perhaps going to be welcomed by the natives.
Another important issue is going to be a political settlement. In the past, the Pakistan army resorted to political negotiations with militant groups once the military offensive halted, only to be backstabbed later. The militants have used political settlement as a way of stabilising and regaining strength. The Pakistan army will have to ensure that it does not get into any political agreement that allows these groups the space to regenerate. The militants must be destroyed and weeded out, and any political negotiations must come with the local tribesmen who are in support of Pakistan, will not allow the land to be used for insurgency against the US, and see the militants as an enemy.
It is important for the Pakistan army to make their goals clear to the public, and to the world at large. The operation in North Waziristan should be taken with an aim to not only secure Pakistan from the threat of militancy, but to ensure that the land of Pakistan will not be violated by militants to carry out insurgency against the US and NATO forces. It is about time Pakistan becomes a responsible international actor whose motivations and goals cannot be doubted by the international community.
The writer is the Visiting Scholar of Asia Programme, Woodrow Wilson Centre
