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Pakistan Blitzes Taliban Hideouts Again, But Ground Assault Uncertain
May. 21, 2014 - 06:51PM | By USMAN ANSARI |
Internally displaced Pakistani tribal civilians flee military operations against Taliban militants in North Waziristan. (Karim Ullah / AFP)
ISLAMABAD — Pakistan on Wednesday launched what appear to be its most punishing series of airstrikes against the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) this year. However, analysts are uncertain if this is a prelude to what they consider an inevitable ground operation to flush the TTP out their remaining Pakistani hideouts.
The military struck in the early hours of Wednesday using jets, helicopter gunships and some ground- based artillery to pound targets around the districts of Miranshah and Mir Ali in the North Waziristan area of the Tribal Areas, adjoining the border with Afghanistan.
The military claims around 60 militants have been killed, which includes senior TTP commanders and foreign fighters, with scores more injured.
Though details cannot be verified due to lack of media access to the locations, they appear to be in retaliation for a series of recent attacks on civilians and the security services.
Whether they have also been influenced by greater security cooperation with Afghanistan is uncertain, but the strikes come in the wake of a visit of the Pakistani Chief of Army Staff, Gen. Raheel Sharif, to Kabul.
There, Sharif discussed a range of security issues with the Afghan military, including increased security along the Afghan-Pakistan border to support the Afghan presidential elections. In Kabul, he also met and discussed similar matters with International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) Commander Gen. Joseph Dunford.
On his return to Islamabad on Tuesday, Sharif joined a high-level meeting chaired by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, which involved top civil and military security officials to discuss national and regional security.
Though the strikes are likely to have been given the green light in this meeting, analysts do not agree if it portends a ground operation in North Waziristan.
Former Australian defense attache to Islamabad, Brian Cloughley, said, “the time has come to strike, if Pakistan is not to suffer mortal injuries from the excesses of the TTP,” and that today was the initial stages of a wider operation.
“I think the airstrikes are probably part of preparatory operations and that the armed services are waiting on final political approval to go in and destroy the insurgents,” he said.
Conversely, Claude Rakisits, director at Politact, a Washington-based advisory firm that focuses on South Asian issues, said, “It is unclear what this heightened level of air strikes means” as there are a number of factors to consider regarding the strikes and their fallout.
“In the past, previous ground operations were preceded by air strikes to soften the enemy,” he said.
“However, the military high command also knows that were they to launch a major ground offensive into North Waziristan, many of the TTP fighters would most likely try to flee across the border into Afghanistan. And given that most of the ISAF forces have left eastern Afghanistan, it would be easy for the TTP fighters to find refuge there and wait to return to Pakistan to fight another day,” he said.
Rakisits also highlights wider domestic concerns.
“Another reason why Pakistan’s military would be reluctant to launch an operation would be the fear of the backlash this would cause. The TTP would undoubtedly retaliate where it hurts most and where Pakistan is most vulnerable: in the densely urban areas of Pakistan, probably in Lahore and quite possibly in Karachi.”
“This would hurt Prime Minister Nawaz politically,” he said.
But Cloughley said this is a decision for Sharif to make, and as prime minister, is one he must make.
“There can be no ground assaults without government giving the order for operations to begin.
Understandably, Nawaz Sharif is reluctant to give such an order. When he does, he will go down in history as the man who acknowledged that his country is to all intents engaged in a civil war. He could be hailed as the nation’s savior or — if things go badly — as the destroyer of the tribes. It’s a very difficult choice,” he said.
Nevertheless, Rakisits also points out that a split in the TTP ranks is an opportunity that might be too good to miss.
Should the military get the green light for a full-scale ground operation, however, analyst Usman Shabbir of the Pakistan Military Consortium think tank said the state of preparedness is high and only the order is awaited.
“I think they are very much ready. Over the years the soldiers have been trained well and are much more experienced now,” he said.
He added: “In terms of technical and intelligence capability, we are also doing much better, with more UAV’s, and ELINT assets; I don’t think [the Air Force] is going to run short of munitions as long as a general war with India does not break out. They have ordered very large stocks in the past.” ■
Email: uansari@defensenews.com.
May. 21, 2014 - 06:51PM | By USMAN ANSARI |
Internally displaced Pakistani tribal civilians flee military operations against Taliban militants in North Waziristan. (Karim Ullah / AFP)
ISLAMABAD — Pakistan on Wednesday launched what appear to be its most punishing series of airstrikes against the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) this year. However, analysts are uncertain if this is a prelude to what they consider an inevitable ground operation to flush the TTP out their remaining Pakistani hideouts.
The military struck in the early hours of Wednesday using jets, helicopter gunships and some ground- based artillery to pound targets around the districts of Miranshah and Mir Ali in the North Waziristan area of the Tribal Areas, adjoining the border with Afghanistan.
The military claims around 60 militants have been killed, which includes senior TTP commanders and foreign fighters, with scores more injured.
Though details cannot be verified due to lack of media access to the locations, they appear to be in retaliation for a series of recent attacks on civilians and the security services.
Whether they have also been influenced by greater security cooperation with Afghanistan is uncertain, but the strikes come in the wake of a visit of the Pakistani Chief of Army Staff, Gen. Raheel Sharif, to Kabul.
There, Sharif discussed a range of security issues with the Afghan military, including increased security along the Afghan-Pakistan border to support the Afghan presidential elections. In Kabul, he also met and discussed similar matters with International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) Commander Gen. Joseph Dunford.
On his return to Islamabad on Tuesday, Sharif joined a high-level meeting chaired by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, which involved top civil and military security officials to discuss national and regional security.
Though the strikes are likely to have been given the green light in this meeting, analysts do not agree if it portends a ground operation in North Waziristan.
Former Australian defense attache to Islamabad, Brian Cloughley, said, “the time has come to strike, if Pakistan is not to suffer mortal injuries from the excesses of the TTP,” and that today was the initial stages of a wider operation.
“I think the airstrikes are probably part of preparatory operations and that the armed services are waiting on final political approval to go in and destroy the insurgents,” he said.
Conversely, Claude Rakisits, director at Politact, a Washington-based advisory firm that focuses on South Asian issues, said, “It is unclear what this heightened level of air strikes means” as there are a number of factors to consider regarding the strikes and their fallout.
“In the past, previous ground operations were preceded by air strikes to soften the enemy,” he said.
“However, the military high command also knows that were they to launch a major ground offensive into North Waziristan, many of the TTP fighters would most likely try to flee across the border into Afghanistan. And given that most of the ISAF forces have left eastern Afghanistan, it would be easy for the TTP fighters to find refuge there and wait to return to Pakistan to fight another day,” he said.
Rakisits also highlights wider domestic concerns.
“Another reason why Pakistan’s military would be reluctant to launch an operation would be the fear of the backlash this would cause. The TTP would undoubtedly retaliate where it hurts most and where Pakistan is most vulnerable: in the densely urban areas of Pakistan, probably in Lahore and quite possibly in Karachi.”
“This would hurt Prime Minister Nawaz politically,” he said.
But Cloughley said this is a decision for Sharif to make, and as prime minister, is one he must make.
“There can be no ground assaults without government giving the order for operations to begin.
Understandably, Nawaz Sharif is reluctant to give such an order. When he does, he will go down in history as the man who acknowledged that his country is to all intents engaged in a civil war. He could be hailed as the nation’s savior or — if things go badly — as the destroyer of the tribes. It’s a very difficult choice,” he said.
Nevertheless, Rakisits also points out that a split in the TTP ranks is an opportunity that might be too good to miss.
Should the military get the green light for a full-scale ground operation, however, analyst Usman Shabbir of the Pakistan Military Consortium think tank said the state of preparedness is high and only the order is awaited.
“I think they are very much ready. Over the years the soldiers have been trained well and are much more experienced now,” he said.
He added: “In terms of technical and intelligence capability, we are also doing much better, with more UAV’s, and ELINT assets; I don’t think [the Air Force] is going to run short of munitions as long as a general war with India does not break out. They have ordered very large stocks in the past.” ■
Email: uansari@defensenews.com.
