Pakistan warns against Indian nuclear tests

[Officer of Engineers]

There is nothing that cannot be seen here. That is obvious enough. And India cannot reserve its right to conduct nuke tests in an agreement, its already there.

Not in the 123 Agreement.

 

[Contrarian]

Not in the 123 Agreement.

India cannot , i repeat cannot give up its right to test legally. The 123 agreement is the same, it does not bind upon India legally that India cannot test nukes, the only thing is that the US will cease cooperation at once, if this happens.

Like i said, India has the right to test, and US has the right to respond, but in the end, India will have been better off having the deal in the first place and then blowing it with a test than not having it at all.

 

[Tiki Tam Tam]

Bush and his Nuke deal ensures a cap.

Therefore, to use Road Runner's (Think Tank) allegory Bush is in the pay of Pakistanis (anything not suitable to him is in the pay of Bharati etc) since the Nuke deal caps the nuclear progress!

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Im sorry, but there is attempt to prevent competitive trade. Pakistan has proliferated nuclear technology to many countries, and India has not. Its obvious that India will get the nuclear technology and Pakistan will not. Pakistan cannot hope to get even treatment from the world along with India. The time is long gone when Pakistan and India were treated equally, dont even expect that now.

I am not arguing with the reality of what the world does or does not do, but pointing out your fallacious comparison of a Pakistani protest against double standards and an Indian attempt to stop a trade deal.

That Pakistan is not getting equal treatment is obvious, the question is related to whether the denial of equal treatment is justifiable from an ethical or moral or even legal POV, when you consider the fact that there is NO EVIDENCE that the proliferation out of Pakistan occurred with official Pakistani sanction. The U.S never made that accusation, and was only able to present evidence against AQ Khan. This point has been argued over several times, and nothing, except for conjecture and assumptions, has been presented to back up the argument that the Pakistani State was involved.

That said, there are numerous examples of individuals proliferating from the West, so what makes Pakistan so special?

If you still insist that the stupid thing you have shown above accounts as proof, let me rephrase the statement: The Rest of the World apart from Pakistan thinks that India has not proliferated nuclear technology and Pakistan has. Now who gives a damn whether you think that this is not fair treatment or whatever. In the end, you will have to face the reality.

We are facing the reality right now, we have been facing it for the past sixty years. If the world chooses to practice double standards and discriminate, that is no reason to take it lying down. I suppose you would suggest that the South Africans under apartheid should have also just shut up and continue to be subjected to abuse.

 

[Officer of Engineers]

India cannot , i repeat cannot give up its right to test legally. The 123 agreement is the same, it does not bind upon India legally that India cannot test nukes, the only thing is that the US will cease cooperation at once, if this happens.

For all intents and purposes, India is bound by the 123 Agreement not to test. If India wishes to test, then she is bound to at least notify the US of her withdrawl from the Agreement, just like any other treaty. In short, it smells like a duck, it swims like a duck, it looks like a duck.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

For all intents and purposes, India is bound by the 123 Agreement not to test. If India wishes to test, then she is bound to at least notify the US of her withdrawl from the Agreement, just like any other treaty. In short, it smells like a duck, it swims like a duck, it looks like a duck.

I think Mishra's point is that India can take advantage of any technology the U.S will share with it and perhaps then decide to test. At that point the U.S abrogating its cooperation with India, or not, will most likely be of minimal impact, since the technology will have been absorbed by India already. Short of a linkage of testing with economic sanctions (which is not going to happen), there really is no major disincentive to prevent a resumption of nuclear tests by India down the line.

 

[Officer of Engineers]

The Hyde Act requires to the US to withdraw all knowledge and technical expertise and that includes taking books off shelfs, erasing hard drives, and taking whatever US equipment, including those nailed down, back to the US. The 123 Agreement stipulates this is one of the conditions.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

The Hyde Act requires to the US to withdraw all knowledge and technical expertise and that includes taking books off shelfs, erasing hard drives, and taking whatever US equipment, including those nailed down, back to the US. The 123 Agreement stipulates this is one of the conditions.

Pakistan managed to build its entire Nuclear program clandestinely without any major cooperation or TOT. I don't think that the U.S can just "erase" all the knowledge that is going to be shared with India from the minds of their scientists, nor can the U.S effectively prevent duplication of that knowledge. Whether the U.S invokes the Hyde act or not ( and a strong argument can be made that perhaps five to ten years from now, given Indian economic growth, the U.S legislature may act to prevent the Hyde act from being applicable in India's case, if it tests) the information and knowledge will have been transferred.

 

[joey]

Agnostic Muslim/malay how many times I'll say There is going to be a absolute seperation of of mil and civililan facilities and technologies just dont like that aid to nuke programme, please read the points with proper links i gave to blain citing such.

1. US will only give us LWR's (GE/Westinghouse/Toshiba/Areva) a technology we neither wish to liscence manufacture and promote as our own nor runs on a fuel that can be deemed appropriate for fissile material.
2. The reprocessing plant will NOT be from US, but from India. (here I personally have some points which will be clear down the line seeing the plans of DAE)
3. Incase of a test, OOE sir I have to again to visit piles of PDF, there has been legal provision on both sides made by lawmakers to get around the system without creating much issue, still IF US insists on its point,
4. If US wants to take back all the brick and parts it wants it has to compensate for that with dollars. (there are many factor which comes here, US is not fool to take back nuclear waste and remember fuel for LWR's are always contaminated and are NOT fissile grade until reprocessed)

Folks,

5. INDIAS RIGHT TO TEST IS THE RIGHT TO TEST SO THAT DOWN THE LINE (30 YEARS LATER) IN CASE OF ANY UNFATHOMABLE PROBLEMS IF INDIA NEEDS TO TEST SAY A 1MT DEVICE EVEN IF IT IS PURELY FOR SYMBOLIC AND DIPLOMATIC REASONS, THE RIGHT OF SOVEREIGNITY TO TEST WILL ENSURE THERE IS NO UN SECURITY COUNCIL RESOLUTION PASSED ON US(INDIA) CITING THE AGREEMENT AS A BREACH. OUR VOLUNTARY MORATUM ON TEST REMAINS AND WE DONT NEED TO TEST FURTHER BASED ON THE TYPE OF DELIVERY VEHICLE AND YIELD WE ARE LOOKING INTO.

 

[Officer of Engineers]

I think you all will have to read the Hyde Act just to understand what the legal implications are. There is very little the POTUS can do to get around the testing issue. While the 123 Agreement does not obligate the US to act, the Hyde Act does.

As far as the Hyde Act is concerned, the President has one year from to notify Congress of a nuclear event, and it does not have to be a weapons test but a nuclear event (and whatever the law makers make it out to be since this so vague. From then on, it's automatic as to what happens, the POTUS has no say in the automatic actions.

Also, have any of you consider if you got anybody else in the White House but Bush? And what his views on the matter is? If you got another Nixon on board, his reactions would be immediate. Hell, even Canada got punished by Bush for the Iraq fiasco. To count on a President for actually defining the terms of the relationship instead of the treaty itself is a very dangerous step for both parties.

And while India may have knowledge transfered, it will also suffer a set back. Rebuilding always takes time, even if you know what to do.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Agnostic Muslim/malay how many times I'll say There is going to be a absolute seperation of of mil and civililan facilities and technologies just dont like that aid to nuke programme, please read the points with proper links i gave to blain citing such.

1. US will only give us LWR's (GE/Westinghouse/Toshiba/Areva) a technology we neither wish to liscence manufacture and promote as our own nor runs on a fuel that can be deemed appropriate for fissile material.
2. The reprocessing plant will NOT be from US, but from India. (here I personally have some points which will be clear down the line seeing the plans of DAE)
3. Incase of a test, OOE sir I have to again to visit piles of PDF, there has been legal provision on both sides made by lawmakers to get around the system without creating much issue, still IF US insists on its point,
4. If US wants to take back all the brick and parts it wants it has to compensate for that with dollars. (there are many factor which comes here, US is not fool to take back nuclear waste and remember fuel for LWR's are always contaminated and are NOT fissile grade until reprocessed)

Folks,

5. INDIAS RIGHT TO TEST IS THE RIGHT TO TEST SO THAT DOWN THE LINE (30 YEARS LATER) IN CASE OF ANY UNFATHOMABLE PROBLEMS IF INDIA NEEDS TO TEST SAY A 1MT DEVICE EVEN IF IT IS PURELY FOR SYMBOLIC AND DIPLOMATIC REASONS, THE RIGHT OF SOVEREIGNITY TO TEST WILL ENSURE THERE IS NO UN SECURITY COUNCIL RESOLUTION PASSED ON US(INDIA) CITING THE AGREEMENT AS A BREACH. OUR VOLUNTARY MORATUM ON TEST REMAINS AND WE DONT NEED TO TEST FURTHER BASED ON THE TYPE OF DELIVERY VEHICLE AND YIELD WE ARE LOOKING INTO.

Thanks for your reply. I was not linking the 123 agreement with India's nuclear capability, just pointing out that India could test if it wanted to down the line without any major consequences (IMO).

Your point about not wanting to replicate the LWR tech. is interesting. Is that because of India's continued research into the AHWR?

Lastly, you say that the fuel from the LWR's will be "contaminated" and not fissile grade until reprocessed, but if India IS reprocessing it, and you have indicated that the U.S will not necessarily be interested in taking it back because of the complications involved in disposal, then does that not potentially offer India more fuel to reprocess into fissile grade material than it would have in the absence of the agreement? Or do you think that argument is moot because of the extra effort (and possible lower yield ?) involved in converting the spent fuel from the LWR's to fissile grade?

 

[joey]

I think you all will have to read the Hyde Act just to understand what the legal implications are. There is very little the POTUS can do to get around the testing issue. While the 123 Agreement does not obligate the US to act, the Hyde Act does.

As far as the Hyde Act is concerned, the President has one year from to notify Congress of a nuclear event, and it does not have to be a weapons test but a nuclear event (and whatever the law makers make it out to be since this so vague. From then on, it's automatic as to what happens, the POTUS has no say in the automatic actions.

Also, have any of you consider if you got anybody else in the White House but Bush? And what his views on the matter is? If you got another Nixon on board, his reactions would be immediate. Hell, even Canada got punished by Bush for the Iraq fiasco. To count on a President for actually defining the terms of the relationship instead of the treaty itself is a very dangerous step for both parties.

And while India may have knowledge transfered, it will also suffer a set back. Rebuilding always takes time, even if you know what to do.

Sir all such are US issues, the hyde act has been dissected many times in few other forums, Yes there are issues but things like Presidential report annually to congress are not binding on us by any means, the lawmakers can do whatever in the worst case is the Breach of agreement and thus return of US material, return of material only after a peaceful dialogue et al fails type thing, there is going to have strategic fuel reserve, incase of deal collapse there are clauses where US will help into securing fuel from other sources. But yes the worst case right to return of US material but not without compensating India for each of the bricks.

And Sir it is only and only the LWR's , a decade and two down the line it will make little issue for us who have been a fore front of thorium fuel cycle and has already started commercializing it, IF US wants to take back the equipment related to LWR' s they supplied sir it is US who will have more burden than us.

The right to test clause remains which wont start the UN security council resolution (following UN unanimonous economic sanction) is one of the prime reason for the right need or sovereignity to test.

Sir this deal is more than just a deal, it closes the nuclear aparthied, say today we want to commercilize our thorium plant in international market, do you think with US opposition it will be possible? It is a win-win type situaion only if our politicians now knows what is the right thing to do. There are certain issues regarding seperation and reprocessing (in reprocessing specially relating to IPR with IAEA) but then again there are give and take of everything and I personally feel we got a good deal after heavy round of negotiations because if you look long term it is not LWR's we are going to depend upon nor US is mad to take back a few LWR's supplied to us and tonnes of nuclear wastes with it and compensate us, makes very little sense.

agnostic I'll explain hold on..

 

[joey]

Thanks for your reply. I was not linking the 123 agreement with India's nuclear capability, just pointing out that India could test if it wanted to down the line without any major consequences (IMO).

Yes It can test if it wants to but it will have some severe issues, You see the point is not that easy that I want to test and I'll test, it requires huge balls which our politicians promptly lacks, There is a fear that this deal will/might create a strong non-testing or non-ploriferation lobby inside India which will oppose any testing or any such issues, Our issue with testing remains entirely domestical opposition , if the need arise of national interest that need to test becomes pre-eminent for whatever diplomatic reasons down the line after decades this deal I feel will be not what will stop us from testing.

But yes down the line in 20/25 years if India wants to test it can test, If US wants to get back US supplied materials it can, US will help us to look into some other fuel sources (we have already started looking more into this later**) , Us can take back their things but yes not without compensating us on the then market value of the things it wishes to take back.

So if India gets more and more reliant on thorium fuel cycle (read produces them on mass scale and the cycle reaches a maturity where it does not depends much on the initial U-Pu reprocessed output), there is little which will effect us this deal, but then again we truly wont test and dont need to test until and unless something really serious issue demands it. (read aliens attacking us?)

Your point about not wanting to replicate the LWR tech. is interesting. Is that because of India's continued research into the AHWR?

Yes say for example China has started liscence producing Westinghouse 1000 MW LWR's, There is a possibility for China to replicate it down the line but I dont think she will do so, We today are building liscence producing 1000 MW Russian VVER's left and right (a kind of LWR), We were never interested in making LWR's nor we have sustained Uranium to feed LWR's nor LWR's will help in our weapons programme in direct means.

Its not like we cannot replicate LWR's and make our own, but why will we and breach liscence agreements? when it has zero economic viability for us and our own, nor it is a very cutting edge type of reactor technology. Its all about fuel, Russian VVER's comes with agreement of guaranteed fuel supply from Russia throughout its life.

Regarding AWHR, yes thats only a part of new set of reactors we are making and Thorium to us is the future, recall kalpakkam will be totally outside safeguards, so deal or not we can make more than enough nuke bombs, this realisation of US has concluded them to come into the table for the deal.

You can check AWHR fuel cycle here and see interesting thigns yourself that we dont need to 'divert' uranium to make bombs..
http://www.indian-nuclear-society.org.in/conf/2003/1.pdf

Lastly, you say that the fuel from the LWR's will be "contaminated" and not fissile grade until reprocessed, but if India IS reprocessing it, and you have indicated that the U.S will not necessarily be interested in taking it back because of the complications involved in disposal, then does that not potentially offer India more fuel to reprocess into fissile grade material than it would have in the absence of the agreement? Or do you think that argument is moot because of the extra effort (and possible lower yield ?) involved in converting the spent fuel from the LWR's to fissile grade?

1. Yes contaminated from my one of previous reply,

U-233 contaminated with U-232 is not a weapons threat It is known as spiked up fuel I have said this before very shortly. So there was never any issue with any sort of Civilian deal but was issue with Reprocessing the spent fuel as it would produce highly enriched Plutonium, Even if we will recieve un-spiked up fuel you see there is no question of taking it to other reactors, you can do a bit of study on the same.

Also U-232 and Th-228 are highly radioactive, but neither are neutron emitters. (it would be useful if they were!) Rather, they both decay quickly along the same decay chain as thorium but far faster. One of the decay products is thallium-208 which emits a strong and penetrating gamma ray during its decay. The strong gamma emitted by Th-208 makes U-232-contaminated uranium pretty worthless for nuclear weapons, which is basically the main reason U-233 has never been used in operational nuclear weapons. The U-232 contamination disadvantages U-233 as a fuel in solid-core reactors, but has little effect on fluid-fueled reactors that don't require fuel fabrication. LWR is fluid-fuelled Reactor as the name suggests which are what we building aka VVER's and which is what China is buying from GE/Westinghouse 1000MW ones.

2. Yes if we would use 'DUAL USE' of the reprocessing feeding both our fuel cycle then it can deemed legally as inappropriate however we are not doing so,

The reprocessing plant we will build will be totally a seperate one, will be under INDIA SPECIFIC IAEA safeguards and materials will NOT be diverted into power plants for bombs.

Issue is here the reprocessed fuel will be feeded into a civilian grade AWHR, but civilian grade thorium cycle (even if we dont use it for weapons) once declared civilian grade will be open for IAEA legally (boon is India specific) inspections, only and only problem will be with protecting decades of IP regarding the same, I'm hopeful scientists will do things right in this aspect like Brazil is doing in their FBR.

3. Regardless of diversion or no diversion (i have already cleared the reprocessing of foreign fuel will be in a dedicated safeguarded reactor and reprocessed fuel from there will go only in civilian grade reactors) read the above fuel cycle or check link below deal or no deal, We have enough stuff to make more than enough weapons we will ever need (read tellis et al for a bit of easy mathematical calculation), add to that 2 FBR's in kalpakkam are being build outside safeguards.

Check this site this is one of them unsafeguarded FBR...
:==: Bharatiya Nabhikiya Vidyut Nigam Limited :==:


Some points i made in older thread with blain,

https://defence.pk/forums/strategic...ndia-deal-said-increase-nuclear-danger-4.html

The last post of mine there,

1. India has enough uranium reserve to make bobms regardless of this deal, check tellis et al If you want more intrinsic calculation I can try the same as well. Then there is enrichment programme et al.

2. The propagation of that this deal will free up existing stockpiles for only and only weapons is a myth as well, because existing stockpiles without this deal was to be used in a manner shich would not interfere with the weapons programme, not to mention additional new mining et al, as Tellis quotes just presently we can more bombs from the unsafeguarded reactors than we will ever need with the existing Uranium which without this deal is not what was supposed to be used for any LWR's. The Russian VVER's comes with Russian N-Fuel.

3. I hope I also have made you clear there is no so called technology infusion regarding LWR's the only blockade was reprocessing facility , the reason of which I have given as well, Indias commitment to make a new reprocessing facility with IAEA India specific safeguards has cleared the issue of diverting any such fuel, now again Reprocessing technology is a close guarded secret and unlike LWR's if Reprocessing is what US would be giving us could have had ramifications of dual use as you once suggested but with much of the reality the reprocessing facility is going to be a India built one. The fuel is also a non-weapons material fuel as fuel used in LWR's are always spiked up with other things which makes them useless as a fissile material.

The problems we faced in this deal will be of,

1. Proper seperation issue.
2. Protection of IPR in the dedicated reprocessing facility which will be indian built with IAEA safeguards for reprocessing US/Other country origin spent fuel.
3. Protection of IPR incase we want to use the reprocessed fuel from that DEDICATED facility in one of CIVILIAN grade FBR.
4. Proper national law and vision and legal expert in tackling issue which might rise with any future testing.
5. Chalking out clear goals on strategic reserve of fuel, including date and timeline when India will start making the reprocessing facility et al, by no means these are small tasks, as For the reprocessing facility India will have to see India specific safeguards from IAEA protecting Indian IPR along with clearing that we are not reprocessing and diverting foreign fuel into our weapons programme

Heck we have puted TIFR (tata inst of fundamental researcg), Variable cyclotron centre, SINP (saha inst of nuke physics) et al under safeguards as well check DAE seperation plan.

I'm only concerned that we have puted VSCC and TIFR under safeguards where will DEW weapons now come from? lol

 

[joey]

(we have already started looking more into this later**) , Us can take back their things but yes not without compensating us on the then market value of the things it wishes to take back.

continuation from there,

Indian firm acquires uranium mining rights in Niger
The Hindu : National : Indian firm acquires uranium mining rights in Niger

Pallava Bagla

The area is likely to hold at least 30,000 tonnes of uranium — “enough to meet India’s requirement for the next 1000 years”

PS : The 1000 years is a misprint.
— Photo Courtesy: Taurian group



New deal: Mohamed Abdoulahi, Minister of Mines and Energy for Niger handing over the uranium exploration and mining permit to Sachin Bajla, MD, Taurian Resources Private Limited.

New Delhi: Even as law makers in India fight over the merits of the India-United States civilian nuclear deal, which now threatens to destabilise the Manmohan Singh Government, a bold and courageous move by an Indian company promises access to literally unlimited amounts of uranium, yes the very same mineral over which India is spending sleepless nights.

At a time when the country is trying to procure uranium at any cost an Indian company has broken new ground by acquiring exclusive rights for exploration and mining of uranium in the west African country of Niger. This is the first time any Indian has won a contract for uranium exploration and mining anywhere in the world. Natural uranium is much sought after for use as fuel in nuclear reactors. India is not well endowed with uranium ore and it is this short supply that is becoming the stumbling block for the rapid expansion of nuclear power in India.

Taurian Resources Private Limited, Mumbai, a Rs. 300-crore company, has recently won a contract which gives it exclusive rights over 3000 sq. km. of the Sahara Desert known to be rich in deposits of uranium. According to estimates of the Managing Director of the company, Sachin Bajla, ” against huge odds, Taurian won a permit to search for uranium in the Arlit region of Niger for an undisclosed amount. Mr. Bajla says till he relinquishes nobody can take away this area earmarked exclusively for his company. He received the permit from Mohamed Abdoulahi, Minister of Mines and Energy for Niger, and also had an audience with Mamadou Tandja, President of Niger.

Bold venture: Kakodkar


Anil Kakodkar, chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission “welcomed” the development but said that as of now the Government had little role to play as it was a “bold forward looking private venture.”

Interestingly, Niger is not a member of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, the 45-member nation that controls all nuclear-related commerce, and hence it should be easy for India to access the uranium once the mines become operational — this will take several years. There is also the possibility that the ground may not be that rich in uranium as is being envisaged. Today, Niger is the fifth largest supplier of uranium in the world — the refined form of this atomic element is also called “yellow cake.”

Government support sought


Uranium is the largest export item for Niger. Ironically, despite such a mineral deposit, Niger is still a very poor country as it ranks right at the bottom of the United Nations Human Development Index. The French company Areva SA has a huge presence in Niger, where the French giant has built a whole township in the desert and mines uranium from at least 600 metres below the ground. Niger exports about 3500 tonnes of uranium, mostly to France.

On Friday, Australia, the largest supplier of uranium in the world, expressed its willingness to meet India’s needs, but not without strings attached. Mr. Bajla says, “I would be happy to meet India’s uranium requirement if the Government so desires.” He is also looking for Government support for his huge venture, having written about this to the Prime Minister.

Huge investment needed


Mr. Bajla says that to fully exploit the potential, an investment of at least $6-7 billion will be required. He hopes to raise money from the international market by listing his company on the London Stock Exchange. If uranium is indeed found by Taurian, the Government of Niger will also hold part rights over the sale of the mineral.

He says that as the region is very barren a whole new township will have to be created. In return for the permit, Mr. Bajla says he has promised the Government of Niger that his company will green one million hectares of land using the plant jatropha, a known source for biofuels. The Arlit region, where Taurian has secured its rights, is known for its unending sectarian conflict, but Mr. Bajla hopes to win the hearts and minds of the locals through appropriate social development of the region.

The Taurian group was set up a decade ago and has iron ore mines in Jharkhand and Orissa and a big engineering unit in Roorkee.

Now this is pure chanakiyan move Recall oil extraction from jatropha was carried out by one of labs of DRDO and is used in Dehradun.

This deal is significant for many reasons, maybe a new treaty is coming up for moon helium extraction in UN and only those who have made explorations in moon can come into that treaty.

 

[Officer of Engineers]

Sir all such are US issues, the hyde act has been dissected many times in few other forums, Yes there are issues but things like Presidential report annually to congress are not binding on us by any means, the lawmakers can do whatever in the worst case is the Breach of agreement and thus return of US material, return of material only after a peaceful dialogue et al fails type thing, there is going to have strategic fuel reserve, incase of deal collapse there are clauses where US will help into securing fuel from other sources. But yes the worst case right to return of US material but not without compensating India for each of the bricks.

The only interruptation that matters is the US Congress. From open source info on this side of the ocean, the compensation is only restricted to commercial failure and not a nuclear event. In the case of a nuclear event, all former legislation which automatically imposes sanctions will take precedence. The US has not repealed the NPT legislations.

Now whether any future administration will follow these protocals to their liking is open to speculation but what's not open to speculation is that the US will not like any nuclear events and will try to prevent that, failing that, will punish.