Pakistan - Turkey (PAC-TAI) Collaboration for NGFA-TFX 5th Gen Aircraft l Updates, News & Discussion

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

There's a lot of discussion here that sort of thinks that Kizilelma and TFX are sister programs. The truth is that TA and Baykar are competitors and there is little to no sideways flow of tech - except of course the odd engineer switching jobs. MMU is an entirely independent program that is well funded and well staffed. Yes, Baykar is doing great things but they don't have nearly the resources to take up a project as complex as the MMU. The amount of people working on it should simply tell you of the complexity. And they are understaffed by their own estimates. Kizilelma is a good system but in terms of complexity and capability it is a Mehran in front of the Mercedes that is the MMU.

I have read somewhere (don't know where and also not sure about it's authenticity) that Baykar is in very early stage of working on an optionally manned aircraft which will be their first step towards Sixth Gen. If someone else come across same thing then do share it's link here.

It's not a rumour in as much analysis. Those observing Baykar believe it's gradually moving towards a manned fighter program, but as @JamD said, Baykar and Turkish Aerospace/TA are ultimately competitors. TUSAS Engine Industries, Aselsan and Havelsan might be willing horizontal partners as they're primarily subsystem suppliers (and in TEI's case, the principal engine provider).

However, if Baykar's going to make the leap to manned jets, it'd need a big governmental partner to support it. This could be a neat opportunity for Pakistan, but hey, let's not get ahead of ourselves and think, amirite?

But seriously, if we project 15 or 20 years into the future, and build a long-term co-development and co-production partnership along those lines, it can happen. Sadly, Pakistani leaders aren't visionaries, or planners, or ops-doers. As JamD wrote a bunch of times, we can start with simpler projects, like a loyal wingman, and then a LIFT, and then a manned fighter.

 

[Cookie Monster]

I think Baykar is quietly designing a manned fighter. They're definitely building the design, development, and production groundwork to handle bigger jets (e.g., the Kizilelma-C will apparently use twin AI-322s). But if TR Motor engine comes online, there's a big opportunity to produce an F-16-sized fighter to complement the TFX/MMU. By the time that engine can be available, I think Baykar will have built a lot of knowledge about flight control systems, aircraft design, electronics, and heck, even stealth materials. If there are any gaps, they can talk to TAI and Aselsan.

But imagine that, a private Turkish company that started with drones could design and produce its own fighter before PAC ever does @JamD

Seeing all this work and progress of Baykar...and comparing it with Pakistan
...I would say it is us who are baykar

 

[SQ8]

See your post below and the details about the JFT. You were suggesting the cost of JFT was $ 15 Mil and that estimated for 160-175 builds and that some cost has gone up. So let's pretend that we add $ 5 Mil to that "some cost have gone up" that you were referring to. Even at taking your $ 20Mil per plane is FAR OFF the map for costs especially Block II and III! Not counting or adding upgrade cost of JF-17A.

I don't get into useless arguments as it's a waste of everyone's time. Nor am I here to "share and be right". I know what I know and I share that. If you go back to my first post on J-10C and the JFT, you'll find the consistency in everything. I don't change per your or someone else's opinions or posts as my statements are purely mine based on my experience and knowledge. What is surprising is a person with your background to be going nuts on anti-military threads. I'm sure it seems that you've had difference of opinion but that's still an institute we respect deeply. But that's a separate topic so we don't need to derail the thread here.

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SQ8 said:
Your analysis is as naive as your knowledge of the program itself. The AZM has gone through multiple conceptual design and was settling for a version that resembled the YF-23(in layout of diamond wing and ruddervators) before another concept with canards was put on top due to “preference”.

Now the JFT has fulfilled its requirement for 150 units - the unit cost of JFT may be stated as $15 million but when you include the cost of setting up the production line, training and raw materials that cost has hit above. And that was still amortized cost over 160-175 builds.
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The fact that you had to go into “anti-military “ aspect shows the bias and seething anger in your posts.
Once again, I did not state $5 million additional - you brought that figure. It could be much higher as well or lower. What I do know from my outdated information is that even with comparatively low interest Chinese loans for both infrastructure and material costs for the Chinese components the PAF has had struggles with making those payments.So it clearly isn’t capable of getting more loans to set up a J-10C line for even 1/3 of the JF-17 purchases it did.

I will admit my fallacy in not stating that $15 million as the cost for the block-I because that was stated repeatedly during initial interviews. The rest I maintain - you are still jumping tangents to get what is right while trying to defend the right precious image you have of the military which isn’t even in topic nor do you even have context to what I highlight.
Hence my reiterating that you are a fanboy looking to vent rather than someone taking the arguments for what they are and can never be objective.

Lets agree to disagree - I have better people to discuss things with and you do too.

 

[Horse_Rider]

The fact that you had to go into “anti-military “ aspect shows the bias and seething anger in your posts.
Once again, I did not state $5 million additional - you brought that figure. It could be much higher as well or lower. What I do know from my outdated information is that even with comparatively low interest Chinese loans for both infrastructure and material costs for the Chinese components the PAF has had struggles with making those payments.So it clearly isn’t capable of getting more loans to set up a J-10C line for even 1/3 of the JF-17 purchases it did.

I will admit my fallacy in not stating that $15 million as the cost for the block-I because that was stated repeatedly during initial interviews. The rest I maintain - you are still jumping tangents to get what is right while trying to defend the right precious image you have of the military which isn’t even in topic nor do you even have context to what I highlight.
Hence my reiterating that you are a fanboy looking to vent rather than someone taking the arguments for what they are and can never be objective.

Lets agree to disagree - I have better people to discuss things with and you do too.

 

[snne]

It's not a rumour in as much analysis. Those observing Baykar believe it's gradually moving towards a manned fighter program, but as @JamD said, Baykar and Turkish Aerospace/TA are ultimately competitors. TUSAS Engine Industries, Aselsan and Havelsan might be willing horizontal partners as they're primarily subsystem suppliers (and in TEI's case, the principal engine provider).

However, if Baykar's going to make the leap to manned jets, it'd need a big governmental partner to support it. This could be a neat opportunity for Pakistan, but hey, let's not get ahead of ourselves and think, amirite?

But seriously, if we project 15 or 20 years into the future, and build a long-term co-development and co-production partnership along those lines, it can happen. Sadly, Pakistani leaders aren't visionaries, or planners, or ops-doers. As JamD wrote a bunch of times, we can start with simpler projects, like a loyal wingman, and then a LIFT, and then a manned fighter.

But what you're forgetting is the fact that the Bayraktar brothers are famous for publicly criticizing the development of a manned 5th gen fighter.

Wherever they go and whenever they speak, they speak against current and future developments of manned fighter platforms saying "the future of aerial warfare belongs to unmanned fighters", "manned fighters are long outdated" and "unmanned platforms are going to be able to engage in BVR warfare and Dogfights in a couple of years from now"

There's a reason why they went for what is essentially a J-20 -esque "loyal wingman" fighter drone and not for a manned or even a traditional flying wing design.


P.S. All of this "early work on manned Kizilelma version" chatter comes only from the Pakistani people on mainly this forum. There's nothing going on on that front and considering the stance of Bayraktar brothers (which I mentioned above) I don't expect such a thing ever materializing.

 

[merzifonlu]

Baykar and TAI are not rivals. They do not produce products that replace each other. They cannot produce, because the government won't allow it. We don't have that many resources, we are not the USA.

For example, Anka&TB2 or Akıncı&Aksungur are not drones with the same characteristics. They complete each other. There is also cooperation between the two companies. For example, when TB2 first joined the Syria operations, it was affected by the GPS jamming, but Anka was not. Technologies from Anka were immediately transferred to TB2.

It would not be correct to compare the Kızılelma and TFX. In fact, it would be most logical to compare TAI's Anka-3 with Baykar's Kızılelma.

TFX is a unique national program. Like the cherry on the cake. Baykar will also benefit from the investments made for TFX.

Oh, BTW, Baykar did not develop the Fly By Wire technology used in Kızılelma. That technology was developed in TAI's Hürjet program and transferred to Baykar.

In summary, Government of Türkiye nourishes Baykar like a sapling. Until it becomes a grown oak tree! If we had left this company to its own fate, Baykar would not be the current Baykar!

 

[renhai]

Like wanting a canard based design even though there was no benefit to it just because certain leadership liked the idea even when many SMEs within PAF and consultants advised against it.

Eventually having the entire thing indigenous aspect of it scrapped because neither the knowledge base nor money existed to develop it all in house.

 

[Hold the door]

TAI and Baykar are not competitors. Both of them are doing the jobs assigned by the presidency of the defense industry of Turkey.

Baykar will never build a manned aircraft. Its next target is space and civil flying vehicles (maybe flying cars).

 

[snne]

Oh, BTW, Baykar did not develop the Fly By Wire technology used in Kızılelma. That technology was developed in TAI's Hürjet program and transferred to Baykar.

Do you have any proof or are you actually just making this up? Because if the latter is true, then what you're doing is misinforming people so I kindly ask you to stop it please.

Do you really think TAI would just transfer something as critical as FBW (which they just recently managed to develop) and just give it to a private company that they have almost no links to? This is like helping them to master the RAM coatings, do you really think TAI would just give these critical, hard earned techs to Baykar? The only ToT that Baykar may ever receive from TAI is probably from engineers switching jobs as @JamD has said.

 

[Indos]

Do you have any proof or are you actually just making this up? Because if the latter is true, then what you're doing is misinforming people so I kindly ask you to stop it please.

Do you really think TAI would just transfer something as critical as FBW (which they just recently managed to develop) and just give it to a private company that they have almost no links to? This is like helping them to master the RAM coatings, do you really think TAI would just give these critical, hard earned techs to Baykar? The only ToT that Baykar may ever receive from TAI is probably from engineers switching jobs as @JamD has said.

TAI is State Owned Enterprises and Baykar owner wife is Erdogan daughter

Any way, FBW system is already old technology. Indonesian N250 flown in 1995 has already used FBW system

 

[snne]

TAI is State Owned Enterprises and Baykar owner wife is Erdogan daughter

Any way, FBW system is already old technology. Indonesian N250 flown in 1995 has already used FBW system

I'm not even going to correct you but if you really think that's how everything works; then, you're mistaken big time, bro.

Anyway, others can point out the obvious here.

 

[Indos]

I'm not even going to correct you but if you really think that's how everything works; then, you're mistaken big time, bro.

Anyway, others can point out the obvious here.

Erdogan has already governed like Dictator in Turkey. Do you think he cannot make it ?

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About FBW system in N250 is already open source information

After termination​

There has been some consideration concerning the program's revival by the former director of the IPTN and, later, the former Indonesian president B. J. Habibie after having received approval from the incumbent president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. However, to reduce production costs and improve price competitiveness in international markets, changes were made which have resulted in reduced performance such as a reduction in engine capacity, and the removal of the fly-by-wire system. The planned reborn plane was planned to be named N250R.

IPTN N-250 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Corax]

It's not a rumour in as much analysis. Those observing Baykar believe it's gradually moving towards a manned fighter program, but as @JamD said, Baykar and Turkish Aerospace/TA are ultimately competitors. TUSAS Engine Industries, Aselsan and Havelsan might be willing horizontal partners as they're primarily subsystem suppliers (and in TEI's case, the principal engine provider).

However, if Baykar's going to make the leap to manned jets, it'd need a big governmental partner to support it. This could be a neat opportunity for Pakistan, but hey, let's not get ahead of ourselves and think, amirite?

But seriously, if we project 15 or 20 years into the future, and build a long-term co-development and co-production partnership along those lines, it can happen. Sadly, Pakistani leaders aren't visionaries, or planners, or ops-doers. As JamD wrote a bunch of times, we can start with simpler projects, like a loyal wingman, and then a LIFT, and then a manned fighter.

I think one of the reasons why decision makers in Pakistan have been reluctant to invest too much weight with development programmes in Turkey is because they face too great uncertainty and risk, from Pakistan's point of view.

Remember, the whole point of the JF-17 programme was to develop a sanction proof fighter, cheap enough to manufacture in large numbers to replace legacy platforms. The PAF is way too weary to invest in a major project again, like the F-16, only to see it grounded due to sanctions. You only have to look at the debacle of the T-129 acquisition to see this.

The TFX relies too heavily on subsystems from western suppliers, and even the likes of BAE and Rolls Royce have been contracted as consultants to help with the design and development process. Sure, Turkey is making effort to replace critical components with domestic alternatives, especially the powerplant, but that's still a big question mark, with all due respect to the capabilities of Turkey. If China is struggling to develop adequate powerplants for its programmes, it's difficult to see how Turkey can supplant the same challenges.

The most obvious and less risky option would have been to get onboard with the J-31/35 programme, but the lukewarm attitude of the PLAN/PLAF has probably impacted the PAF's view of that option as well.

 

[merzifonlu]

Erdogan has already governed like Dictator in Turkey. Do you think he cannot make it ?

Even if CHP's Imamoglu had ruled Turkiye instead of Erdogan, the same would have happened and TAI would have provided Baykar with the technology it needed.
You don't understand the situation. You evaluate Turkey in peacetime logic. Turkiye does not live in a time of peace, on the contrary, in a time of war. That's why we urgently need both TFX and Kızılelma.

Because,
a) There is Ukraine War in our north and it is unknown what madness Russia will do.
b) Iran and Afghanistan is about to explode. When the state authority there collapses, waves of immigrants will hit our borders.
c) We cannot come to an agreement with both the USA and the Iran/Russia duo in Syria.
d) Ever since the energy deposits were discovered, there are "sharks" that want to kick us out of the Mediterranean. And these western sharks won't sell us planes or anything!

Oh, by the way, the Bayraktar family, who owns Baykar, and Tayyip Erdoğan's connection is not just family connection. Özdemir Bayraktar, the fathers of Haluk and Selçuk Bayraktar, was a manager in Erdoğan's former party. In other words, the Erdogan and Bayraktar families are close to each other ideologically.

 

[Horse_Rider]

But what you're forgetting is the fact that the Bayraktar brothers are famous for publicly criticizing the development of a manned 5th gen fighter.

Wherever they go and whenever they speak, they speak against current and future developments of manned fighter platforms saying "the future of aerial warfare belongs to unmanned fighters", "manned fighters are long outdated" and "unmanned platforms are going to be able to engage in BVR warfare and Dogfights in a couple of years from now"

There's a reason why they went for what is essentially a J-20 -esque "loyal wingman" fighter drone and not for a manned or even a traditional flying wing design.


P.S. All of this "early work on manned Kizilelma version" chatter comes only from the Pakistani people on mainly this forum. There's nothing going on on that front and considering the stance of Bayraktar brothers (which I mentioned above) I don't expect such a thing ever materializing.

They aren't wrong. The US strategic thinkers were saying the F-35 would be the last "manned" 5th gen jet. That the 6th gen fighters will all be robotics. Just take a look at their new 6th gen strategic bomber, the B-21. It comes with manned and unmanned options. I'd for near enemy airspace ops, the unmanned option will be used. That tells us what to expect in the US 6th gen NGA. Or may be the 6th gen would have the "option" of manned and unmanned but the 7th gen (future) is 100% unmanned. That is the future.

Bayraktar guys are just looking at the future and trying to leapfrog. But it takes a buy in and time to get there. Manned jets do give "comfort" to manage the "unknown". Ten years from now, it won't be the case and unmanned would be trusted just as much or more.