Pakistan - Turkey (PAC-TAI) Collaboration for NGFA-TFX 5th Gen Aircraft l Updates, News & Discussion

[lightning F57]

Its interesting to note that instead of discussing potential options / way forward for Azm, considering indigenous pulling off such a mammoth task / project on our own was NOT on cards, the thread seems to be going towards undue criticism of members hurled on each other .

Going back to the topic and scenario :

If Indian AF goes on and inducts or pulls off a VLO Platform PAF only has 02 options to align as buying partner:

Turkey MMU
or
China J-35 Land version

as likely potential candidates.

Like J-10 saga which took 2 decades to mature until Rafale came into subcontinent and F-16 Block 70s were not available more due to Geo Politics.

Dwindling Economy and funds , Lack of Aviation industry privatization, Materials & other sciences Plus Testing R&D Facilities not properly developed - a number of factors have effected the outcome which is NOT ideal ...

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Neither one becomes a cheerleader by acknowledging what has been achieved by our Air Arm to stay competitive OR get the Cutting edge vs Indian AF

Nor one has to prove by posting V card showing the direct exposure of working with PAC / PAF to comment the views ,

People living abroad Do Not need any 'certification of Loyalty'. Similarly those back home may have an a better pulse of whats happening on the ground . Perfectly Possible & acceptable.

Patience is a virtue fast disappearing.

Thanks

What about the Indo/S Korean FX venture?

 

[CSAW]

What about the Indo/S Korean FX venture?

In my very humble opinion

PAF would need to have some sort of 'financial arrangement' linked with Azm going forward. Which doesn't make Korean platform a viable option. Plus linking to existing Assets may be another point of choice.
I may be wrong as i have been many times. Still Learning the trade..

Things change in Geo Politics and economy - One can list Su 57 Russia or some would say scale down J-20 as an option

but 'Likely candidates' to pull it off are China J-35 / 31 & Turkey MMU. Both options come with likely financing options and Loyal Wingman under development. Both options we can depend upon supplies during conflict with arch rivals.

[PS : I don't have any direct source for this claim - Just reading the situation ...!]

"Any strings attached " or "Being Sanctions prone " OR "Non Accessible source codes" for future PAF platforms should be a big NO such as Licenses for engine, BVR capability or SEAD Capability linked to political arrangements.

Interesting to see the gap between USA / West vs Turkey & China narrow down in my life time ...

[AESA Radar as a case in point]

since i saw Delta French beauty Mirages Rebuild in

Pakistan

or WVR Kings F-16As coming to Pakistan decades ago -

Yet the High tech or critical engineering prime technology such as High Performance High MTBF Engine etc STILL being a problematic area Achilles heel.

 

[SQ8]

Now you just went in circles and mixed my posts and statements with yours. Nawa to bilkul nahin hon nor do I want to flash my existence on a web forum as if being a member in 2011 brought the cricket world cup home! A few workshops done to "create a mythical design" of a 5th gen jet doesn't mean we had one or we could remotely build one. We didn't even have a win tunnel to test a diecast (Iron) model let alone a design for 5th gen fighter . I'm surprised you claim to know so much and you don't know our capability or lack of it back then? Paper design sessions and workshops happen a lot, nothing really comes out of these. Definitely not a 5th gen platform. I feel stupid writing about this, this idea is that dumb and that also back in 2000-2010! That's "Azm design" issue. I hope it's settled.

We've known about J-XX (without specific naming conventions that existed) back in 1998-199 when JFT was being setup. Obviously, we thought if Chinese equipment comes closer to the Western, we'd buy. In fact, we waited about a decade on J-10C (when J-10A was being offered to us in Musharraf sb's time). I'd stop here.

I didn't bring in "American profits" as a comparison. I educated you how the US can MAKE 30-40% on each defense article's sale and we have nothing to compare to them with. This was an explanation to your GIGANTIC false claim that JFT costs average $ 15 million a piece! On us selling it for $ 50 million, kindly find some credible place about our price quotations to Argentina and instead of arguing, realize you are not current on stuff.

We are an official partner in TFX. That's what AZM will now include. J-31 isn't in the picture right now more than "just interest". In prior two ACM's time, J-31 had more of a role in consideration but TFX took it away and seems like the way forward. Like anything, it can also change with the new ACM coming in or a new government.

It seems you are purposely obfuscating your arguments in trying to pass yourself off as correct by taking what I am stating and then passing it off as some revelation on your end?
My credibility is rarely questioned here nor do I make fantastic claims that aren’t corroborated - and if they don’t turn out to be correct, I learnt a long time ago that being able to accept I am wrong is a positive aspect of a personality.

There is nothing in your post I have already not stated yet you are trying to just get “I am right” for your own satisfaction and getting cheeky on low ball comments. I am talking about the J-10 unit price and you’re purposely mixing it with JF-17 and Argentina so clearly there are comprehension issues.

Lets agree to disagree and not waste time on who is what - you have added to what I already know and it is possible it is obsolete knowledge but then there are others here who are current.

If this is the thinking in PAF then Pakistan is doing the right thing, by keeping out of the project. Since there really isnt anything to offer from Pakistani side technically. Its best that Turkey does the actual leg work then PAF can request its own tailored product.

After the success of Kizilelma TFX isn't so far fetched.

The Navy has the best policy in this regard - they only go indigenous when there are no other alternatives available to meet the requirements because they understand their budget. They aim for ToT and evolution rather than revolution.

 

[Horse_Rider]

It seems you are purposely obfuscating your arguments in trying to pass yourself off as correct by taking what I am stating and then passing it off as some revelation on your end?
My credibility is rarely questioned here nor do I make fantastic claims that aren’t corroborated - and if they don’t turn out to be correct, I learnt a long time ago that being able to accept I am wrong is a positive aspect of a personality.

There is nothing in your post I have already not stated yet you are trying to just get “I am right” for your own satisfaction and getting cheeky on low ball comments. I am talking about the J-10 unit price and you’re purposely mixing it with JF-17 and Argentina so clearly there are comprehension issues.

Lets agree to disagree and not waste time on who is what - you have added to what I already know and it is possible it is obsolete knowledge but then there are others here who are current.


The Navy has the best policy in this regard - they only go indigenous when there are no other alternatives available to meet the requirements because they understand their budget. They aim for ToT and evolution rather than revolution.

See your post below and the details about the JFT. You were suggesting the cost of JFT was $ 15 Mil and that estimated for 160-175 builds and that some cost has gone up. So let's pretend that we add $ 5 Mil to that "some cost have gone up" that you were referring to. Even at taking your $ 20Mil per plane is FAR OFF the map for costs especially Block II and III! Not counting or adding upgrade cost of JF-17A.

I don't get into useless arguments as it's a waste of everyone's time. Nor am I here to "share and be right". I know what I know and I share that. If you go back to my first post on J-10C and the JFT, you'll find the consistency in everything. I don't change per your or someone else's opinions or posts as my statements are purely mine based on my experience and knowledge. What is surprising is a person with your background to be going nuts on anti-military threads. I'm sure it seems that you've had difference of opinion but that's still an institute we respect deeply. But that's a separate topic so we don't need to derail the thread here.

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SQ8 said:
Your analysis is as naive as your knowledge of the program itself. The AZM has gone through multiple conceptual design and was settling for a version that resembled the YF-23(in layout of diamond wing and ruddervators) before another concept with canards was put on top due to “preference”.

Now the JFT has fulfilled its requirement for 150 units - the unit cost of JFT may be stated as $15 million but when you include the cost of setting up the production line, training and raw materials that cost has hit above. And that was still amortized cost over 160-175 builds.
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[Edevelop]

You bring up some good points but do know Turkey will never leave NATO. Do they have disagreements? Yes, and that's the case between Germany, US, France, Italy, etc, also. But the leadership in Turkiye knows it's in their absolutely critical interest to never leave NATO. In fact, being in NATO gives them much stronger voice on the world stage, even Saudia despite having more $$ and power, doesn't have. Turkey also benefits greatly economically and defense wise also. SCO will only happen if other NATO countries won't object to it.

Turkiye's defense industry is West based so that's why Pakistan is wanting to essentially either acquire or be a part of various projects where they can allow this to happen.

Fair enough. They do want to sail on two boats. It’s in their benefit

Pakistan’s access and only hope of acquiring western tech will come from Turkiye and Italy. Both countries have solid relations and historic ties with Pakistan

 

[Horse_Rider]

Fair enough. They do want to sail on two boats. It’s in their benefit

Pakistan’s access and only hope of acquiring western tech will come from Turkiye and Italy. Both countries have solid relations and historic ties with Pakistan

You are right. But Italy won't sell Pakistan cutting edge stuff. Turkiye would, especially if we were to partner like we did with the TFX. It doesn't hurt to buy Akinci and KizilEma in the future with local assembly or license production options. The drones are easier to make than a fighter jet. Plus these weapon systems will serve the PAF for long term and if the expected numbers make sense and a feasibility supports it, I am all for training some of our 50,000 tech / cs / engineering grads and put them to work and save $$. Our future is linked with technology related growth since we have the talent.

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

The PAF royally bungled its NGFA plans by basically not taking them seriously.

AHQ never took Turkey's TFX invite seriously (and heck, I'd bet they didn't take the TFX itself seriously until now). And AHQ threw the AZM bone to some internal group to humour them. We also have a camp that's of the belief, "well, we don't want to introduce an NGFA to the region because that'll push India to add its own NGFA, so, let's not focus on that right now."

Strategically, the most rational route was to:

1. Pursue the J-10CE as the next mainstay fighter. Buy it in incremental batches through the rest of this decade. I think (funding problems notwithstanding) this has been the plan since around 2017-2018 (and accelerated after 2019).

2. Join an NGFA program -- be it Turkey or China -- as a consortium partner. We had our shot to negotiate a relatively good deal back in 2016 when Turkey invited us to join the TFX. Heck, we could've done the same thing with the AVIC FC-31 in 2012. In either case, we could've got investment, offsets, and serious workshare which would've truly taken our academia and industry to the next level. Now, we are stuck on the 'quasi-partner, mostly a customer' category for both TFX/MMU and J-35/J-21.

On the right course of action, the PAF would focus on inducting J-10CEs until the NGFA (TFX or J-35) comes online. The latter would be a mid-2030s type of thing, and all procurement effort would focus on the NGFA (to replace the F-16A/Bs).

 

[Edevelop]

You are right. But Italy won't sell Pakistan cutting edge stuff. Turkiye would, especially if we were to partner like we did with the TFX. It doesn't hurt to buy Akinci and KizilEma in the future with local assembly or license production options. The drones are easier to make than a fighter jet. Plus these weapon systems will serve the PAF for long term and if the expected numbers make sense and a feasibility supports it, I am all for training some of our 50,000 tech / cs / engineering grads and put them to work and save $$. Our future is linked with technology related growth since we have the talent.

Turkiye is obvious preference number 1 but reason why I brought up Italy as well is because we are their 2nd biggest arms importer and they did offer us AESA radars for JF-17 and lots of other stuff. Also important to note, Italy is at odds with India due to various legal cases involving military and within Europe, France and Italy, though both members of the EU, don’t really get along and the reasons are historical in nature due to territorial disputes and competing colonial powers. Naturally if France is going to sell and favour India, Italy will do to Pakistan.

 

[PakFactor]

The PAF royally bungled its NGFA plans by basically not taking them seriously.

AHQ never took Turkey's TFX invite seriously (and heck, I'd bet they didn't take the TFX itself seriously until now). And AHQ threw the AZM bone to some internal group to humour them. We also have a camp that's of the belief, "well, we don't want to introduce an NGFA to the region because that'll push India to add its own NGFA, so, let's not focus on that right now."

The bold part is that I've encountered this situation many times with our armed forces; please explain to me the logic behind this all. It's like the US saying let's not introduce stealth fighters because the Chinese will also want one. The purpose of armed forces isn't just to maintain parity of arms but to excel and over-power the opponent. Indeed, what will you do now if the conflict breaks out and stealth air-craft could've given you the edge you need to take down a larger opponent?

PA, PAF, and PN have been engaged in pure neglect of duty.

 

[Horse_Rider]

Turkiye is obvious preference number 1 but reason why I brought up Italy as well is because we are their 2nd biggest arms importer and they did offer us AESA radars for JF-17 and lots of other stuff. Also important to note, Italy is at odds with India due to various legal cases involving military and within Europe, France and Italy, though both members of the EU, don’t really get along and the reasons are historical in nature due to territorial disputes and competing colonial powers. Naturally if France is going to sell and favour India, Italy will do to Pakistan.

To be frank, with India's buying power, no country is against them. Everything is a business and no one wants to say NO to a 3rd or 4th largest economy. Italy doesn't have anything real to offer to India so they'd sell the little stuff to us. Obviously, that AESA radars (Vixen I believe) was a big deal to us but the Chinese came along and told us they were working on miniaturizing J-20's tech for J-10C so we stopped and utilized that same principle in our JFT's. But beyond that, Italy doesn't produce top notch jets. I think we've acquired helos from them also.

France on the other hand produces top line jets, missiles, ships, and submarines, so that's why India goes to France to keep a healthy chunk in it's inventory to keep the suppliers diversified (Russia, France and US are top 3 supplies for India). But the smart thing is, one supplier acting out, won't hurt the Indian military's operations as they'll use another one's equipment. You pay cash, the French will sell you anything.

 

[Horse_Rider]

The PAF royally bungled its NGFA plans by basically not taking them seriously.

AHQ never took Turkey's TFX invite seriously (and heck, I'd bet they didn't take the TFX itself seriously until now). And AHQ threw the AZM bone to some internal group to humour them. We also have a camp that's of the belief, "well, we don't want to introduce an NGFA to the region because that'll push India to add its own NGFA, so, let's not focus on that right now."

Strategically, the most rational route was to:

1. Pursue the J-10CE as the next mainstay fighter. Buy it in incremental batches through the rest of this decade. I think (funding problems notwithstanding) this has been the plan since around 2017-2018 (and accelerated after 2019).

2. Join an NGFA program -- be it Turkey or China -- as a consortium partner. We had our shot to negotiate a relatively good deal back in 2016 when Turkey invited us to join the TFX. Heck, we could've done the same thing with the AVIC FC-31 in 2012. In either case, we could've got investment, offsets, and serious workshare which would've truly taken our academia and industry to the next level. Now, we are stuck on the 'quasi-partner, mostly a customer' category for both TFX/MMU and J-35/J-21.

On the right course of action, the PAF would focus on inducting J-10CEs until the NGFA (TFX or J-35) comes online. The latter would be a mid-2030s type of thing, and all procurement effort would focus on the NGFA (to replace the F-16A/Bs).

I don't agree with the narrative that we don't introduce stealth as it would force India too. We've known since 2015 that India will acquire stealth starting 2025 or so. Their AMCA project's "conceptual requirements" have been around for well over 5 years now requiring extremely low observability to stealth optimization in later blocks. And now it's going to be 5th gen which we knew would come. In my opinion, the PAF due to it's mainly defensive role and obvious issues with funds, always wait to measure up the adversary's acquisition plans fully and then procures a counter in enough quantities to create a deterrence.

I agree with you on J-10CE. I've been harping on the subject, write today's date and this message. F-16's will be replaced by more J-10CE's (or whatever block we'll name it at that time). J-10CE will end up replacing some of the Mirage squadrons as well. Knowing that, I am STRONGLY suggesting that we assemble them locally even with limited ToT and train our people, save $$ and start an industry around this platform. It's our next 30+ years Hi or the Hi/Lo. We start today, we'll have somewhat of a nascent industry around this platform in 10 years.

NGFA will have its own squadrons and won't really counter, supplement or replace the F-16's.

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

The bold part is that I've encountered this situation many times with our armed forces; please explain to me the logic behind this all. It's like the US saying let's not introduce stealth fighters because the Chinese will also want one. The purpose of armed forces isn't just to maintain parity of arms but to excel and over-power the opponent. Indeed, what will you do now if the conflict breaks out and stealth air-craft could've given you the edge you need to take down a larger opponent?

PA, PAF, and PN have been engaged in pure neglect of duty.

tbh it's a fancy way of masking the real reason...not wanting to spend money in that area. Sometimes, the rationale for doing so is valid, i.e., to spend in other areas that need it more now. Other times, I suspect it's a mask to justify wasteful spending, like the buildings for AZM, VVIP jets, VVIP cars, etc. Sadly, we don't have a CAG-style office with teeth to pick apart why a certain purchase decision was made or not made.

 

[sparten]

tbh it's a fancy way of masking the real reason...not wanting to spend money in that area. Sometimes, the rationale for doing so is valid, i.e., to spend in other areas that need it more now. Other times, I suspect it's a mask to justify wasteful spending, like the buildings for AZM, VVIP jets, VVIP cars, etc. Sadly, we don't have a CAG-style office with teeth to pick apart why a certain purchase decision was made or not made.

Auditor Generals office reports.
They are available online.

 

[python-000]

 

[princefaisal]

Turkiye intends to develop twin-engine KIZILELMA UCAV (length & wingspan greater than JF-17) having larger fuselage for greater internal weapon station volume and fuel capacity. If Turkiye develops its pilot operated version, it would be cheaper & capable 5th gen aircraft.