Pakistan To Participate In Turkey’s TFX Next-Gen Fighter Aircraft Program

[WhyCry]

Well that will be same time when PAF will be retiring our F-16 fleet .. I do hope that PAF will get some deal with Turkey for joint Development of TF-X , PAF future Fleet i want to see will look something like this .
100 JF-17 block 3 ----- work will start by next year
100 JF-17 Block 1 and 2 --- 70 already in service
100 J-31's ----- it will be our twin engine long ranger Multi-role Fighter
50-80 TF-X ----- Our Air Superiority Fighter , replacement for F-16's

You forgot 200 F-35's

 

[cabatli_53]

TAI head Temel Kotil states;

-TF-X will be a superior and one of the best air superiority fighter to hunt F-35 like 5th generation fighters that F-16 can't do at supersonic speeds.
-~10,000 total personnal will work for TAI inside/outside of institute within 10 years for TF-X
-New huge installation of TAI will host 2700 aerospace engineers
-BAE/TAI Phase-1 deal contains first 4 years of design studies
-Domestic turbofan engine development for TF-X commenced. It takes 10 years to develop. Turkish institutes have core single crystal blade technologies to achieve this goal.
-TF-X Phase-1 Design budget (4 years): 1,3 billion $
-TF-X Phase-2 budget: 8 billion $ certain ( He predicts design/development/production worth around 20 billion $ budget)
-BAE will provide 400 engineer/year for TF-X worth 156 million$
-~3000 Turkish engineers will work for TF-X
-All IP and export rights of TF-X will be owned by Turkish Republic.
-First Flight/demonstration : 2023
-TurAF and ally state induction: 2029
-After the Phase-1 design phase with BAE and succesfull demonstration of fighter, he's expecting other companies and countries to join the project

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

TAI head Temel Kotil states;

-TF-X will be a superior and one of the best air superiority fighter to hunt F-35 like 5th generation fighters that F-16 can't do at supersonic speeds.
-~10,000 total personnal will work for TAI inside/outside of institute within 10 years for TF-X
-New TAI huge installation will host 2700 aerospace engineers
-BAE/TAI Phase-1 deal contains first 4 years of design studies
-Domestic turbofan engine development for TF-X commenced. It takes 10 years to develop.
-TF-X Phase-1 Design budget (4 years): 1,3 billion $
-TF-X Phase-2 budget: 8 billion $ certain ( He predicts design/development/production worth around 20 billion $ budget)
-BAE will provide 400 engineer/year for TF-X worth 156 million$
-~3000 Turkish engineers will work for TF-X
-First Flight : 2023
-TurAF and ally state induction: 2029
-After the Phase-1 design phase with BAE and succesfull demonstration of fighter, he's expecting other companies and countries to join the project

Sounds about right, though the initially projected overhead of nearly USD $10bn is really ambitious. Assuming the cost of materials and labour aren't notably excessive, the flyaway cost of each TFX would be around USD $120-130m (on 200 TuAF planes). With maintenance and support it would be USD $200m (i.e. the USD $20bn figure floated by Temel Kotli). That's quite competitive for a 5th gen fighter.

 

[WarFariX]

Sounds about right, though the initially projected overhead of nearly USD $10bn is really ambitious. Assuming the cost of materials and labour aren't notably excessive, the flyaway cost of each TFX would be around USD $120-130m (on 200 TuAF planes). With maintenance and support it would be USD $200m (i.e. the USD $20bn figure floated by Temel Kotli). That's quite competitive for a 5th gen fighter.

Bilal sir , How would you analyse this statement "PAF as dream of it's indigenous 5th gen platform can choose TFX single engine development in home so that PAF will also be partner of TFX program as well as single engine version will be available for export by PAC to the world . This will replace F-16s of PAF"

 

[KediKesenFare3]

Sounds about right, though the initially projected overhead of nearly USD $10bn is really ambitious.

You're assuming that the estimated cost about $10bn is too low?

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

You're assuming that the estimated cost about $10bn is too low?

It's not clear yet, but it may climb as the years go on.

Bilal sir , How would you analyse this statement "PAF as dream of it's indigenous 5th gen platform can choose TFX single engine development in home so that PAF will also be partner of TFX program as well as single engine version will be available for export by PAC to the world . This will replace F-16s of PAF"

PAF will have to choose from what the market offers. From what I can see, the 5th gen (or whatever) fighter will be the PAF's next top-tier platform, i.e. the F-16 replacement (literal and metaphorical). If the market only offers twin engine designs, such as the FC-31 or TFX, the PAF will choose one of those.

I don't think we'll see PAC develop a new fighter, rather, they'll continue working on the JF-17 design. In the distant future, a JF-17 variant of some kind (Block-6, 7, 8, etc) will continue to be the PAF's mainstay jet. And this isn't a bad thing, especially if sensor technologies reach a point where they can detect low-RCS objects at safe distances.

 

[Cornered Tiger]

Bilal sir , How would you analyse this statement "PAF as dream of it's indigenous 5th gen platform can choose TFX single engine development in home so that PAF will also be partner of TFX program as well as single engine version will be available for export by PAC to the world . This will replace F-16s of PAF"

I want to analyse it as well. @Bilal Khan (Quwa) Bhai pardon me as I am not eligible to do this in-front of you.

I think Its a clear post 2030 scenario, when PAF F-16s will be on the replacement roll. PAF will surely go for some squadrons of J-31 post 2020 after the solid foundation & a little outcome of Kamra Aviation City. By the time J-31 will be a very good Air Superiority platform, having 6 AAMs in internal bays and long legs. Indigenous TFX with one Engine might be second choice of PAF after J-31's operational experience.

As of now PAF is in need of a long legged Fighter, that is why PAF is looking for limited numbers of Su-35s, Typhoons, J-11Ds OR used Mirage 2K9s that can carry Deep Precision Strikes and provide Maritime Support as well.

J-11Ds (if selected Russia will allow export) OR used Mirage 2K9s have a very solid chance here, because they can come with MRO and necessary Spares. PAF will try its maximum to keep Overall Cost low.

 

[The Eagle]

I want to analyse it as well. @Bilal Khan (Quwa) Bhai pardon me as I am not eligible to do this in-front of you.

I think Its a clear post 2030 scenario, when PAF F-16s will be on the replacement roll. PAF will surely go for some squadrons of J-31 post 2020 after the solid foundation & a little outcome of Kamra Aviation City. By the time J-31 will be a very good Air Superiority platform, having 6 AAMs in internal bays and long legs. Indigenous TFX with one Engine might be second choice of PAF after J-31's operational experience.

As of now PAF is in need of a long legged Fighter, that is why PAF is looking for limited numbers of Su-35s, Typhoons, J-11Ds OR used Mirage 2K9s that can carry Deep Precision Strikes and provide Maritime Support as well.

J-11Ds (if selected Russia will allow export) OR used Mirage 2K9s have a very solid chance here, because they can come with MRO and necessary Spares. PAF will try its maximum to keep Overall Cost low.

Before moving ahead with the same, I think SU chapter or any Chinese flanker currently does not fit into inventory at all and the same is going to be a burden in current financial shape and our plans w.r.t. up-coming JF-17 as well as ambition of NGF. PAF stance seems like current fleet with up-coming JF-17B as well as JF-17 Block-III and then Next Generation Fighter (NGF as reportedly).

IMO firstly we have to see both FC-31/J-31 & TF-X in different contexts and possibilities along-with parties involved in program.

PAF plans for Next Generation Fighter (NGF) could be based upon two observations differently as NGF for PAF as we currently do not have a perfect 4.5++ bird hence it could be the same NGF along-with an idea to mold it into something close to 5th generation, as said a low observable stealth shape with an air-frame style of 5th Gen that may fit not just into our inventory as well as doable as per our pocket size and finance.

The FC-31/J-31 could be an idea like if we go with the same as our NGF platform so it may be like we will read FC-31 in details then PAF will bring it's own needs and requirements as per doctrine/threat to the table so then things discussed and there we have a solution as per need, threat and requirement. For the reference, we can read about how FC-1/JF-17 born and the idea came into being which was due to the need of PAF in limited budget to fulfill its requirement and bingo so the same path could be opted for our NGF by JV in the name of FC-31/J-31 or FC-X/J3x. The Chinese option also covers and clear the doubt of any third party involvement that actually gives a feeling of independence w.r.t. fear of sanctions. Chinese platform does not hold any strings along and seems to be the independent solution like we have JF-17 even reportedly, FC-31/J31 V2.0 is flying with WS-13E Chinese engine which tells us total independence for PAF in JV as per need.

On other hand TF-X is actually is also a joint venture between TAI-BAE. It is pertinent to mention here that as per reports, Turkiye holds full rights of TF-X with export to any nation and BAE has no objection as well so such assurance and Turkiye's approach for Pakistan cannot be doubted at all per current state of affairs/relations between both countries that we trust each other more than others. While looking at the development and possible doctrine it seems like Turkiye will be replacing F-16s with upcoming F-35 (single engine both and as F-35 is destined to do so for many Air-forces). By the same observations, Turkiye will be choosing Twin Engine TF-X initially that will work for Turkiye/operators as in simple definition like F-22 for USAF, the air superiority and leader of the fleet that may clear the space for entry of rest of the fleet into battle space. While looking at BAE participation, many have reservations with respect to possible sanctions or supplier hesitation of trust but Turkiye's assurance would be good enough in this regard. PAF participation wouldn't be that much in TF-X due to many reasons including Financial constrains however, the level of participation would be like learning and gaining experience for in-house solution/NGF platform with specific area co-operation between both countries.

So IMO, it is most probably going to be an air-frame like FC-31, will be molded altered as per our need and we will be working based upon our expertise gained from Turkiye Program as well as Chinese participation is a mix for PAC/PAF PF-X with possible initial input of hardware/software from Turkiye as well as China. That we can say like possibly Single Engine JV for PAF NGF with suppliers like China & Turkiye. We are thankful to Trukish invitation to Pakistan and the same indeed without any doubt, holds a lot of benefits for both countries and I hope that Pakistan may participate in this program with full swing though there are realities that cannot be ignored. Still, TF-X is going to teach us, deliver us and give us a lot of education, support and learning that I am sure, Pakistan-Turkiye have worked upon plans for this program that are not fully available in public domain.

 

[WarFariX]

Before moving ahead with the same, I think SU chapter or any Chinese flanker currently does not fit into inventory at all and the same is going to be a burden in current financial shape and our plans w.r.t. up-coming JF-17 as well as ambition of NGF. PAF stance seems like current fleet with up-coming JF-17B as well as JF-17 Block-III and then Next Generation Fighter (NGF as reportedly).

IMO firstly we have to see both FC-31/J-31 & TF-X in different contexts and possibilities along-with parties involved in program.

PAF plans for Next Generation Fighter (NGF) could be based upon two observations differently as NGF for PAF as we currently do not have a perfect 4.5++ bird hence it could be the same NGF along-with an idea to mold it into something close to 5th generation, as said a low observable stealth shape with an air-frame style of 5th Gen that may fit not just into our inventory as well as doable as per our pocket size and finance.

The FC-31/J-31 could be an idea like if we go with the same as our NGF platform so it may be like we will read FC-31 in details then PAF will bring it's own needs and requirements as per doctrine/threat to the table so then things discussed and there we have a solution as per need, threat and requirement. For the reference, we can read about how FC-1/JF-17 born and the idea came into being which was due to the need of PAF in limited budget to fulfill its requirement and bingo so the same path could be opted for our NGF by JV in the name of FC-31/J-31 or FC-X/J3x. The Chinese option also covers and clear the doubt of any third party involvement that actually gives a feeling of independence w.r.t. fear of sanctions. Chinese platform does not hold any strings along and seems to be the independent solution like we have JF-17 even reportedly, FC-31/J31 V2.0 is flying with WS-13E Chinese engine which tells us total independence for PAF in JV as per need.

On other hand TF-X is actually is also a joint venture between TAI-BAE. It is pertinent to mention here that as per reports, Turkiye holds full rights of TF-X with export to any nation and BAE has no objection as well so such assurance and Turkiye's approach for Pakistan cannot be doubted at all per current state of affairs/relations between both countries that we trust each other more than others. While looking at the development and possible doctrine it seems like Turkiye will be replacing F-16s with upcoming F-35 (single engine both and as F-35 is destined to do so for many Air-forces). By the same observations, Turkiye will be choosing Twin Engine TF-X initially that will work for Turkiye/operators as in simple definition like F-22 for USAF, the air superiority and leader of the fleet that may clear the space for entry of rest of the fleet into battle space. While looking at BAE participation, many have reservations with respect to possible sanctions or supplier hesitation of trust but Turkiye's assurance would be good enough in this regard. PAF participation wouldn't be that much in TF-X due to many reasons including Financial constrains however, the level of participation would be like learning and gaining experience for in-house solution/NGF platform with specific area co-operation between both countries.

So IMO, it is most probably going to be an air-frame like FC-31, will be molded altered as per our need and we will be working based upon our expertise gained from Turkiye Program as well as Chinese participation is a mix for PAC/PAF PF-X with possible initial input of hardware/software from Turkiye as well as China. That we can say like possibly Single Engine JV for PAF NGF with suppliers like China & Turkiye. We are thankful to Trukish invitation to Pakistan and the same indeed without any doubt, holds a lot of benefits for both countries and I hope that Pakistan may participate in this program with full swing though there are realities that cannot be ignored. Still, TF-X is going to teach us, deliver us and give us a lot of education, support and learning that I am sure, Pakistan-Turkiye have worked upon plans for this program that are not fully available in public domain.

i would like to add a point to your well made analysis , CAC and SAC are rivals to each other. It is a fact that CAC might be working on a 5th gen carrier platform with single engine to rival SAC's J-31 so IMO Just like F-35A/B for air force and C for carrier , we could expect a same JV type of project with china and pakistan giving pakistan the A type jet for air force and china a small single engine carrier C type fighter

 

[The Eagle]

i would like to add a point to your well made analysis , CAC and SAC are rivals to each other. It is a fact that CAC might be working on a 5th gen carrier platform with single engine to rival SAC's J-31 so IMO Just like F-35A/B for air force and C for carrier , we could expect a same JV type of project with china and pakistan giving pakistan the A type jet for air force and china a small single engine carrier C type fighter

Yes, competition among in-house entities are actually fruitful and provide beneficial results in whole prospect however, w.r.t. single engine by CAC is yet not hinted at all. FC-31 holds more chances for being Carrier version as any single engine may limit the operations as compare to twin engine. I have no clue of yet CAC working on any single engine AC hence, cannot comment further.

With reference to PAF/PAC it is clear that PAF is working on NGF (the ACM words to be taken as credible source) and rest of the things are yet under many wraps. TF-X is going to be an advance platform without any doubt while looking at TAI-BAE expertise and experience and will be able to attract a lot of customers especially, wealthy Arab Operators that are currently denied with F-35 so Turkiye platform is going to be a success hopefully. On other hand, rivals/competitors will try to sabotage such development but seems less possible or an unfortunate event every occurred. From financial point of view purely, Pakistan participation seems to be limited but while looking at many other developments as well as our relations along-with give & take idea, who knows what it appears in future. It is true that we cannot participate w.r.t. R&D cost/a lot of money needed but still, Turkish invitation says it all that only time will tell how Pakistan is going to take part though till now, IMO, it would be really helpful for our NGF if we are not buying TF-X that we will learn a lot, read Turkish gadgets for an in-house solution.

 

[Cornered Tiger]

So IMO, it is most probably going to be an air-frame like FC-31, will be molded altered as per our need and we will be working based upon our expertise gained from Turkiye Program as well as Chinese participation is a mix for PAC/PAF PF-X with possible initial input of hardware/software from Turkiye as well as China. That we can say like possibly Single Engine JV for PAF NGF with suppliers like China & Turkiye. We are thankful to Trukish invitation to Pakistan and the same indeed without any doubt, holds a lot of benefits for both countries and I hope that Pakistan may participate in this program with full swing though there are realities that cannot be ignored. Still, TF-X is going to teach us, deliver us and give us a lot of education, support and learning that I am sure, Pakistan-Turkiye have worked upon plans for this program that are not fully available in public domain.

It could be an option BUT after 2030 because it seems to be a long term Project and as IAF will sure also go for F-35 in future. PAF at first would like to have an off the shelf solution as NGF because of Urgency due to T-50 which will be in IAF by the 2022, It will pose a serious threat to PAF.

So basically PAF will also go for two NGFs. First (off the shelf) soon after IAF's PAKfa and Second soon after IAF's F-35 (Indigenous - Chinese + Turkish Mix OR Single Engine TFX).

 

[The Eagle]

It could be an option BUT after 2030 because it seems to be a long term Project and as IAF will sure also go for F-35 in future. PAF at first would like to have an off the shelf solution as NGF because of Urgency due to T-50 which will be in IAF by the 2022, It will pose a serious threat to PAF.

Well as per my understanding and limited knowledge, IAF will hardly receive complete order of Rafale by 2021 and PAK-FA is farther than this.

So basically PAF will also go for two NGFs. First (off the shelf) soon after IAF's PAKfa and Second soon after IAF's F-35 (Indigenous - Chinese + Turkish Mix OR Single Engine TFX).

Two (2)? not like that my friend that PAF is not that luxurious Air-Force. Either off the shelf or in-house production, the NGF will remain one for us. If not the whole TF-X, I am seeing the same as our required tech for NGF or on lighter side, a gift from sky in view of Turkish expertise (the famous ASELSAN and many more) and their reputable techs. Just saying.

 

[Cornered Tiger]

Well as per my understanding and limited knowledge, IAF will hardly receive complete order of Rafale by 2021 and PAK-FA is farther than this.

Last Rafale by 2021 and First PakFa by 2022 is very much possible.

Two (2)? not like that my friend that PAF is not that luxurious Air-Force. Either off the shelf or in-house production, the NGF will remain one for us. If not the whole TF-X, I am seeing the same as our required tech for NGF or on lighter side, a gift from sky in view of Turkish expertise (the famous ASELSAN and many more) and their reputable techs. Just saying.

Not 2 at the same time, I know PAF is Fund-Constrained Force. BUT one after the other is very likely by PAF just because of different requirements at different times & Off-course PAF had to eventually keep up the pace with whole World and replace all 4th Gen Fighters. Now & then PAF will have to go for two or more platforms.

 

[The Eagle]

Last Rafale by 2021 and First PakFa by 2022 is very much possible.

Let's see my friend.

Not 2 at the same time, I know PAF is Fund-Constrained Force. BUT one after the other is very likely by PAF just because of different requirements at different times & Off-course PAF had to eventually keep up the pace with whole World and replace all 4th Gen Fighters. Now & then PAF will have to go for two or more platforms.

Check the pattern of PAF that mostly works with High Quality Doctrine to overcome the weakness of quantity due to to financial constrains. Hope you will understand the same. PAF use to work with more effective, less quantity with limited budget as per threat assessment and need. Once, the economy boomed high, will see more and different options but currently, it seems like as continued and happening. Personally I too wish every top class goody in our hand but the fact is also to be kept in check. IMO, different requirements will be fulfilled mostly with single solution as smart & cost effective decisions like what we see as JF-17. Most of the aging fleet is designed to be replaced with JF-17 Block-II and supplemented with upcoming JF-17 Block-III, saying that, added more punch and quality than before to the fleet. Now coming to F-16s, that is the area which needs to be addressed hence, FC-31/J-31 or TF-X type aircraft that will initially supplement F-16s then when the time comes, will be helping to replace the same as well like two birds with one, IMO.

 

[tarrar]

I want to see the agreement inked between the two countries, then we will know its happening.

In my opinion there is a high probability of Pakistan joining TFX program.