Pakistan’s next coup

[BanglaBhoot]

C. Raja Mohan

The world’s attention is riveted on the intriguing “back story” of Osama bin Laden — his evasion of a massive and prolonged US manhunt by hiding under the very nose of the Pakistan army.

Looking a little ahead, the political after-effects of the bold American raid on Abbottabad could be equally gripping. As the pressure mounts on Rawalpindi to explain itself and act against US enemies on Pakistani and Afghan soil, the internal political arrangements across our western frontiers are unlikely to survive in the present form.

All major political moments in Pakistan have been marked by coups of one kind or another. Pakistan’s last traditional coup was in 1999 following the humiliating end to Rawalpindi’s Kargil war with India.

Dismissed by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, the army chief, General Pervez Musharraf, hit back to grab the political crown and wear it for the next nine years.

In a more recent silent coup last year, General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani wrote out a three-year extension for himself as army chief and got his successor as the ISI boss, Lt Gen Shuja Pasha, to hang in for another year.

The powerless civilian establishment in Islamabad — President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani — had no choice but to rubber-stamp Kayani’s decision.

The Abbottabad raid, however, has moved Pakistan’s tectonic plates. The shock waves travelling through Pakistan will produce some wreckage, if not structural change, in the nation’s political and policy universe.

Several frontmen for the Pakistan army — including former foreign minister Shah Mohammed Qureshi — are demanding the resignation of the president and prime minister. There is indeed some speculation that Kayani might throw Pasha to the wolves to protect himself.

There are others who want the civilian leaders to reclaim some control over national security decision-making that has been usurped by the Pakistan army over the years.

All political coups will have winners and losers. Here below are five possible coup scenarios in Pakistan, identified in terms of the winners.

“Zardari’s coup”: As the Pakistan army and the ISI, the self-proclaimed guardians of Pakistan’s geographic and ideological frontiers, twist in the wind after Abbottabad, Zardari has a fleeting moment to put Kayani and Pasha in their place.

The last three times Zardari sought to assert his authority — reaching out to India, bringing the ISI under elected rulers, and mobilising political support in the US Congress for promoting civilian primacy — Kayani slapped him down.

Could Zardari be fourth-time lucky? Most observers of Pakistan would argue that Zardari may not have the personal will, the necessary domestic political support or green signals from Pakistan’s main external benefactors — Saudi Arabia, the US and China.

“Kayani’s coup”: To get out of the spot that he finds himself in, Kayani might decide offence is the best form of defence. He could blame the civilians for giving American intelligence agencies the free run that led to the brazen violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty.

Kayani could dismiss the civilian government and take direct charge of the nation. He could bet that Washington still needs the Pakistan army in the Afghan endgame and that will give him sufficient space to ride through the current crisis.

His decision over the weekend to dispatch Pasha to a friendly capital (Riyadh or Beijing, we don’t know) suggests Kayani is mobilising much needed external support.

“Beijing’s coup”: China’s defence of Kayani last week when the rest of the world was pointing fingers at him was indeed extraordinary. It points to Beijing’s growing partnership with the Pakistan army in securing China’s expanding interests in Afghanistan and the Persian Gulf.

In underwriting Kayani’s coup — through a fresh package of financial and military assistance — Beijing could present itself as a strategic alternative to the traditional US primacy in the Persian Gulf and Southwest Asia.

“Obama’s coup”: US President Barack Obama has already won big by launching a daring raid deep inside Pakistan. After being played for nearly a decade by Rawalpindi, Washington has a temporary upper hand over Kayani.

But it is not clear where Obama is headed after Abbottabad. Obama could choose to turn relentless heat on Kayani to come clean on Osama bin Laden, help track down the rest of the al-Qaeda leaders in Pakistan, and force the Pakistan army to abandon its three-decade-old alliance with violent extremism.

But there are many in Washington who want Obama to treat Kayani with kid gloves even after Abbottabad. They point to the dangers of pushing Rawalpindi into the hands of jihadis or China. They highlight the dangers of a nuclear-armed failed state in Pakistan.

Most foreign policy factions in Washington agree that Obama needs Kayani and the Pakistan army to organise any kind of exit from Afghanistan. Put simply, there is some chance that the ties between Washington and Rawalpindi might return to business-as-usual, with some minor adjustments after Abbottabad.

“Anarchist coup”: Pakistan’s jihadi groups may not be well-organised or coherent enough to capture power. But they have the capacity to stage spectacular terror acts, including major political assassinations that could produce new facts on the ground.

Whatever the nature of the impending political reordering in Pakistan, India will be deeply affected. Delhi’s conventional wisdom would argue that India cannot influence the outcomes in Pakistan and therefore it is best to remain a passive observer.

While it cannot define the internal evolution of Pakistan, Delhi can certainly complicate the calculations of all other actors across the Radcliffe and Durand Lines.

India must use that leverage — both negative and positive — to isolate the patrons of violent extremism across our western frontiers and defeat their proxies who have operated with such impunity for so long.

Pakistan’s next coup

 

[U-571]

does the army have the face to take 'charge' of something, every pakistani is cursing this shameful army, only a public coup can save what ever is left

 

[Pak_Sher]

Now we learn that Mush-Bush made a secret deal a decade ago to kill OBL. More lies every day, none of these politicinas and generals can be trusted. They should resign or retire soon. Useless creatures.

 

[chat]

This time coup wont happen because public is very angry at Army leadership and will not support the coup.

 

[Solomon2]

We already knew that Kiyani was shopping for coup-allies; that's why he made noises about "honor" less than two weeks ago. He should have been slapped down then but was not. So Pakistan is really a military government served by sometimes-elected civilians, rather than an elected civilian government served by the military.

 

[third eye]

Ideally a coup ought not to happen but if pushed to the wall the PA & ISI may execute one.

Unfortunately public inside Pak is more pliable when it come to the army than the leaders of Pak are to the US.

 

[Mike2011]

As long as economy is not doing good and need AID for survival, No coupe.

 

[EastWest]

Ideally a coup ought not to happen but if pushed to the wall the PA & ISI may execute one.

Unfortunately public inside Pak is more pliable when it come to the army than the leaders of Pak are to the US.

I dont think they will do a coup now..as they are under sever scrutiny at home and abroad...
I think history has shown..whenever PA & ISI are pushed to wall(i.e., under severe criticism at home)..they divert the attention by attacking India(initiating War)..in that way they again galvanize support for themselves...

 

[khurasaan1]

Nobody is trustful...everybody is a liar...and looking for his paycheck to fill up their Hell(Stomachs)......thats what everybody is upto...greed n gredd n greed...Allah SBWT may sve us from this curse.....Astaghfirullah....

 

[Guest01]

Coups can be uncertainity but we can be certain that the way things are developing, China will be successful in developing another North Korea on its southern borders. But like the Koreas, other world will not give up easily and will there now be a North and South Pakistan?

 

[Roybot]

Coups can be uncertainity but we can be certain that the way things are developing, China will be successful in developing another North Korea on its southern borders. But like the Koreas, other world will not give up easily and will there now be a North and South Pakistan?

It will be North Korea on steroids. And China will gain an exclusive market of 170 Million people.

 

[Urbanized Greyhound]

The U.S wont let it happen till they have achieved their objectives in the region.....Gen Kayani with absolute power may or may not be pliant to all U.S demands .

 

[fatman17]

C. Raja Mohan

The world’s attention is riveted on the intriguing “back story” of Osama bin Laden — his evasion of a massive and prolonged US manhunt by hiding under the very nose of the Pakistan army.

Looking a little ahead, the political after-effects of the bold American raid on Abbottabad could be equally gripping. As the pressure mounts on Rawalpindi to explain itself and act against US enemies on Pakistani and Afghan soil, the internal political arrangements across our western frontiers are unlikely to survive in the present form.

All major political moments in Pakistan have been marked by coups of one kind or another. Pakistan’s last traditional coup was in 1999 following the humiliating end to Rawalpindi’s Kargil war with India.

Dismissed by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, the army chief, General Pervez Musharraf, hit back to grab the political crown and wear it for the next nine years.

In a more recent silent coup last year, General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani wrote out a three-year extension for himself as army chief and got his successor as the ISI boss, Lt Gen Shuja Pasha, to hang in for another year.

The powerless civilian establishment in Islamabad — President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani — had no choice but to rubber-stamp Kayani’s decision.

The Abbottabad raid, however, has moved Pakistan’s tectonic plates. The shock waves travelling through Pakistan will produce some wreckage, if not structural change, in the nation’s political and policy universe.

Several frontmen for the Pakistan army — including former foreign minister Shah Mohammed Qureshi — are demanding the resignation of the president and prime minister. There is indeed some speculation that Kayani might throw Pasha to the wolves to protect himself.

There are others who want the civilian leaders to reclaim some control over national security decision-making that has been usurped by the Pakistan army over the years.

All political coups will have winners and losers. Here below are five possible coup scenarios in Pakistan, identified in terms of the winners.

“Zardari’s coup”: As the Pakistan army and the ISI, the self-proclaimed guardians of Pakistan’s geographic and ideological frontiers, twist in the wind after Abbottabad, Zardari has a fleeting moment to put Kayani and Pasha in their place.

The last three times Zardari sought to assert his authority — reaching out to India, bringing the ISI under elected rulers, and mobilising political support in the US Congress for promoting civilian primacy — Kayani slapped him down.

Could Zardari be fourth-time lucky? Most observers of Pakistan would argue that Zardari may not have the personal will, the necessary domestic political support or green signals from Pakistan’s main external benefactors — Saudi Arabia, the US and China.

“Kayani’s coup”: To get out of the spot that he finds himself in, Kayani might decide offence is the best form of defence. He could blame the civilians for giving American intelligence agencies the free run that led to the brazen violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty.

Kayani could dismiss the civilian government and take direct charge of the nation. He could bet that Washington still needs the Pakistan army in the Afghan endgame and that will give him sufficient space to ride through the current crisis.

His decision over the weekend to dispatch Pasha to a friendly capital (Riyadh or Beijing, we don’t know) suggests Kayani is mobilising much needed external support.

“Beijing’s coup”: China’s defence of Kayani last week when the rest of the world was pointing fingers at him was indeed extraordinary. It points to Beijing’s growing partnership with the Pakistan army in securing China’s expanding interests in Afghanistan and the Persian Gulf.

In underwriting Kayani’s coup — through a fresh package of financial and military assistance — Beijing could present itself as a strategic alternative to the traditional US primacy in the Persian Gulf and Southwest Asia.

“Obama’s coup”: US President Barack Obama has already won big by launching a daring raid deep inside Pakistan. After being played for nearly a decade by Rawalpindi, Washington has a temporary upper hand over Kayani.

But it is not clear where Obama is headed after Abbottabad. Obama could choose to turn relentless heat on Kayani to come clean on Osama bin Laden, help track down the rest of the al-Qaeda leaders in Pakistan, and force the Pakistan army to abandon its three-decade-old alliance with violent extremism.

But there are many in Washington who want Obama to treat Kayani with kid gloves even after Abbottabad. They point to the dangers of pushing Rawalpindi into the hands of jihadis or China. They highlight the dangers of a nuclear-armed failed state in Pakistan.

Most foreign policy factions in Washington agree that Obama needs Kayani and the Pakistan army to organise any kind of exit from Afghanistan. Put simply, there is some chance that the ties between Washington and Rawalpindi might return to business-as-usual, with some minor adjustments after Abbottabad.

“Anarchist coup”: Pakistan’s jihadi groups may not be well-organised or coherent enough to capture power. But they have the capacity to stage spectacular terror acts, including major political assassinations that could produce new facts on the ground.

Whatever the nature of the impending political reordering in Pakistan, India will be deeply affected. Delhi’s conventional wisdom would argue that India cannot influence the outcomes in Pakistan and therefore it is best to remain a passive observer.

While it cannot define the internal evolution of Pakistan, Delhi can certainly complicate the calculations of all other actors across the Radcliffe and Durand Lines.

India must use that leverage — both negative and positive — to isolate the patrons of violent extremism across our western frontiers and defeat their proxies who have operated with such impunity for so long.

Pakistan’s next coup

C. Raja Mohan - i thought this guy had more intelligence than writing this 'fairy tale'!!!

 

[Archie]

“Zardari’s coup”: As the Pakistan army and the ISI, the self-proclaimed guardians of Pakistan’s geographic and ideological frontiers, twist in the wind after Abbottabad, Zardari has a fleeting moment to put Kayani and Pasha in their place.

The last three times Zardari sought to assert his authority — reaching out to India, bringing the ISI under elected rulers, and mobilising political support in the US Congress for promoting civilian primacy — Kayani slapped him down.

Could Zardari be fourth-time lucky? Most observers of Pakistan would argue that Zardari may not have the personal will, the necessary domestic political support or green signals from Pakistan’s main external benefactors — Saudi Arabia, the US and China.

“Kayani’s coup”: To get out of the spot that he finds himself in, Kayani might decide offence is the best form of defence. He could blame the civilians for giving American intelligence agencies the free run that led to the brazen violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty.

Kayani could dismiss the civilian government and take direct charge of the nation. He could bet that Washington still needs the Pakistan army in the Afghan endgame and that will give him sufficient space to ride through the current crisis.

His decision over the weekend to dispatch Pasha to a friendly capital (Riyadh or Beijing, we don’t know) suggests Kayani is mobilising much needed external support.

“Beijing’s coup”: China’s defence of Kayani last week when the rest of the world was pointing fingers at him was indeed extraordinary. It points to Beijing’s growing partnership with the Pakistan army in securing China’s expanding interests in Afghanistan and the Persian Gulf.

In underwriting Kayani’s coup — through a fresh package of financial and military assistance — Beijing could present itself as a strategic alternative to the traditional US primacy in the Persian Gulf and Southwest Asia.

“Obama’s coup”: US President Barack Obama has already won big by launching a daring raid deep inside Pakistan. After being played for nearly a decade by Rawalpindi, Washington has a temporary upper hand over Kayani.

But it is not clear where Obama is headed after Abbottabad. Obama could choose to turn relentless heat on Kayani to come clean on Osama bin Laden, help track down the rest of the al-Qaeda leaders in Pakistan, and force the Pakistan army to abandon its three-decade-old alliance with violent extremism.


Hey guys can any one setup a poll to decide which one has higher chance of happening

 

[Dil Pakistan]

I think you have overlooked / ignored the most likely coup and that is the Imran Khan's Coup.

He is the only one who is:

1. most organized at the moment

2. most in contact with the people.

3. talking the langauge of common man,

4 understands what people want and ready to deliver

5 has got the trust of the people

6 liked by the army

7 in-line with USA and west

8 has offered solutions how to get of this mess

9 has respect of parties of right and left