To only consider the current mortality rates of Covid-19 would be a shallow approach to understanding the very complex dynamics of a pandemic and this virus. Getting infected is not detrimental to just yourself either.
1) Let's assume that it is as simple as just plotting a straight line for the mortality rates without considering any other variables. I'll be using Canada's numbers since Pakistan does not have exact numbers available in all parameters. Canada's
mortality rates (no. deaths/no. infections) by age groups under 50 are as below,
0-19: 11/232,237 = 0.00474%
20-29: 48/237,935 = 0.02%
30-39: 107/204,257 = 0.052%
40-49: 234/185,035 = 0.126%
Pakistan's
population by the above age groups and the resultant deaths according to Canadian mortality rates are as below,
0-19: 90,978,980 x 0.00474% = 4312
20-29: 37,123,467 x 0.02% = 7,424
30-39: 30,232,840 x 0.052% =15,72
40-49: 20,636,975 x 0.126% = 26,002
Total: 39,310, if everything goes perfectly.
You have no problem with losing 39,310 young Pakistanis? For reference, so far Pakistan has lost 19,106 in total, at least officially. The reported efficacy (by competitors) of the least effective vaccine in the world is
still 100% against mild-severe infection. All those 40 odd thousand people can be saved with just two shots.
Ps: No, the mortality rate of Covid for any age group is not as much or
less than of the Common Flu's. It is also not "
1 in 50,000 or lower".
All that said, the real world does not get plotted as a straight line. A fair few variables will greatly exacerbate the situation and the number of deaths, for example,
2) The above mortality rates are from a country whose healthcare system is orders of magnitude better than Pakistan's. The lesser quality of health owing to the economic conditions in Pakistan also indicate that the actual mortality rates in the country will be noticeably higher than the rates above. Don't believe I need to provide any figures for this.
3) The above rates are from a situation where the healthcare system is not overwhelmed. Everyone who requires a ventilator, oxygen, doctor, and/or hospital bed will get it. If all or at least a sizeable majority of Pakistanis do not get vaccinated it will not be this perfect. In fact, Pakistan's healthcare system will eventually collapse. Working off
Canadian hospitalization rates by age,
0-19: 0.00462 x 90,978,980 = 420,322
20-29: 0.00977 x 37,123,467 = 362,696
30-39: 0.01918 x 30,232,840 = 579,865
40-49: 0.02925 x 20,636,975 = 603,631
50-59: 0.054 x 14,801,036 = 799,255
60-69: 0.10949 x 8,727,959 = 955,624
70-79: 0.23648 x 4,502,685 = 1,064,795
80+: 0.2709 x 1,432,641 = 117,202
Total: 4,903,390
Do you think Pakistan can accommodate
4,903,390 million patients in its hospitals? Let's imagine Pakistan pulls off a miracle and no one above 50 will require hospitalization. All you then have left are around 2 million Pakistanis who would still require hospitalization just for Covid. Did not include the numbers from the hundreds of other diseases plaguing us. Pakistan's number of
total hospital beds is 132,000. Once those who would have otherwise survived with hospital care start dying due to the lack of available medical care, those mortality rates above will balloon. The only way around this would be continuously recurring lockdowns for an indefinite number of years. Do you think Pakistan's economy can afford that?
Ps: No, the chance of being hospitalized is not
1 in many thousands.
4) The virus will mutate. The more it transmits the easier, quicker, and more often it will mutate. As it mutates it will gain potency; target younger people, transmit easier, last longer, gain resistance to drugs/vaccines, etc. Even if you remain asymptomatic, every person that you pass it on to will be another chance for it to mutate. The first wave of the Spanish flu caused roughly the same amount of deaths as a severe flu epidemic. The second, third, and fourth waves destroyed the world's population. The mortality rate for the first wave is estimated at around
2.5%, not much different than Pakistan's Covid-19 mortality rate of 2.2%. The mortality rate across its four waves is estimated
as high as 20%.
5) The chances of dying from Covid-19 are thousands of times higher than the chances of dying from its vaccines.
6) Given Pakistani society's propensity to ludicrous conspiracy theories, a great many will not get vaccinated, no matter what. After all, Covid-19 is just an effort to take away the manhood of the Pakistani Musalman, even though he continues to breed like an insect and has no problem spurting out half a dozen more Pakistanis whom he cannot feed. In this situation and given the above very serious reasons, it becomes even more evident that every sane person in the world has a responsibility to get vaccinated asap.
7) Unabated spread of the virus will result in tens of thousands of indirect deaths, i.e. people who will die because of Covid without ever contracting it. Once the health system has collapsed, patients suffering from other diseases which require immediate and/or continues medical care will not find any. Once the economy collapses, and it will, tens of thousands more will starve to death.
8) Are we rolling out the vaccines in an ideal fashion? No, we are not. We are not because we have no better option.
9) If you are still afraid of vaccines, no problem. Get one of the
inactivated vaccines, e.g. CoronaVac. It is just dead Covid-19 virus that you inject to teach and trigger your immune system into making antibodies against Covid-19 without the virus being able to harm you. By it's very nature, this type of vaccine cannot have any more or any different adverse effects than Covid-19 itself. You are fine with being infected by the virus, just take it when its dead and not kill any people.
All of the above was already
not hypothetical when the virus began. Other pandemics from the past had given us more than enough warning. Those who did not understand mathematics, medicine, biology, or history were more interested in spreading nonsensical conspiracies. Well, can't make excuses anymore. All of the above points have been unquestionably proven in at least half a dozen countries over the past year. One country has them all right now and is losing young healthy individuals by the hundreds if not thousands every day. If someone still doesn't get it after seeing young Indians dying on the streets, dead bodies washing up on shore, and the country running out of wood to cremate its dead then I'm sorry, that someone is a liability to the entire society and country. It's not just India either, Mexico's mortality rate stands at 9.3% after 2.3 million cases. Nepal is at the brink of breaking and going the Indian path after managing their first wave better than us. This isn't as simple as you think it is.
The official figure is 3 million in a world population of 7.5 billion.
We can't abuse Math like that. 3.3 million have
officially died out of the
158 million that have been
officially infected. The infections and the deaths have not stopped yet. Extrapolating the same rate over 7.5 billion infections would mean at least 156.6 million deaths, which is still a gross under-estimation.
Many have died with Covid, not of covid. The official definition of a covid death is any body who dies within 28 days of a positive covid test. If a man is hit by a truck within 28 days of testing positive, then he has officially died of covid. In the US , private hospitals are 'incentivised' ie paid extra, for declaring a death from covid. In many cases a person can be booked as a covid death if he has the symptoms of covid ie cough, tempreture etc.
That's ludicrous. I won't go into refuting these claims since a) they
already have been many times over, and b) the current
methods of
estimation are free of all these issues even if they were true, which they are not. Studies comparing year on year total deaths, adjusted to year on year trends, have shown that the actual number of Covid deaths is as much as 10 times higher, in certain countries, than is actually reported. USA's true Covid death numbers, through the same method, are estimated at 900,000. India is estimated to have under-counted its Covid deaths by at least 400,000, without taking into account the undeclared deaths at homes which can be as high as 70-80% of the true total. This method of counting negates every single objection you have raised since it does not depend on what is or is not reported as a "Covid Death" by anyone. These ridiculous conspiracy theories are obsolete.
I am surprised at the 'young' people dying in India. The Canadian figure for death among children is zero. Perhaps the figures are changing, but I remember categorically that the average age of death is 81 yrs. Infact, while the virus is more dangerous to those over 80 yrs,
I am not fully informed of the current variants in India but in UK:
The current best guess of a 1% death rate does not apply to everyone.
www.bbc.co.uk
View attachment 741949
As you can see under 50s do not die in significant numbers of Covid-19 and most of those that do are either with an "underlying health condition" or are obese.
It is estimated that a fit 35 year old in the UK has maybe a 1 in 50,000 chance or lower of dying from the virus if they caught it.
PS - Why should a "simpleton" be prosecuted as the vulnerable person should be protected by vaccine anyway and if they somehow cannot, then they should be taking extra precautions anyway?
Every disease is more dangerous for the aged, except for a handful. Both of you are completely missing the point(s), as explained above.
it is actually less dangerous to those under 50/ 60 with no medical preconditions then the flu.
Only so much as
it is not at all. A fact reiterated and proven at least a hundred times by independent third party bodies from across the world. Also showcased practically in at least half a dozen countries.
I believe that 3,362 in the US have died in the last 4 months of the vaccine. This is why it shouldn't be given to just anybody, only those at high risk. What we do not know is the long term effect of giving billions of people an untested gene therapy drug to save them from a disease they have no chance of dying from.
No they have not. Please don't quote
Fox News hacks. Definitely don't take medical advise from them. It doesn't take long to realize what the
VAERS numbers represent. You are counting the men hit by the trucks.
PS: Even if that number was true, which it is not, it represents a mortality rate from Covid vaccines of (3362 / 259 million doses administered x 100) =
0.00129% in the US. Covid's mortality rate in the US stands at
1.78%. Not getting vaccinated would be
1380 times more dangerous than getting the vaccine even if those numbers were true. Which they are not.
I cannot understand why you have so much faith in 'scientists'. ie drug sellers that make money out of what they sell you like washing machines.
Because your expected life is not 40 years? You have no fear of your kids contracting Polio? Or your friends dying of Hepatitis A or B? Your wife of Rubella? Amongst a very long list of other diseases.
The vaccines have gone through independent trials and studies by Universities, countries, and medical institutes, all of whom have nothing to gain monetarily from them.
Haven't you heard of 'thalidomide'? Or the fact that DDT was used to spray children? Incidentally, about 70 vaccines have been removed from sale after they were approved. There have been no, repeat no, long term safety trials for these new vaccines. None. Zilch. Nada.
It was in the 50s, when Tuberculosis was a terminal and incurable disease. Our processes of making, testing, and approving drugs have matured a thousand folds since then. Life expectancy in the US has increased by 10 years since then exactly due to these drugs. Have you not heard of the thousands of other vaccines/drugs which save literally millions of lives every day?