Pakistan quietly preparing for civil war in Afghanistan

[Kompromat]

Any such situation will prove disastrous for Pakistan.

 

[Argus Panoptes]

By 2014? Certainly not, try 2020 at the very earliest.
That's when the younger generation that gain a proper education may come of age.
That is when you see change................

We don't have that long Sir. Once 2014 comes round, things will head south pretty quickly, and the next couple of years after that will be really bad. We simply cannot avoid the consequences.

 

[Marwat Khan Lodhi]

I think, the only short term step Pakistan can take is to make Pakistan a non-viable destination for Afghan refugees.

Given the limited time to a possible meltdown in Afghanistan I think it is imperative that Pakistan aggressively removes existing Afghan refugees and pass legislation which makes it very difficult them for them to conduct business, access resources, open bank accounts, etc.

That will send a message to anybody contemplating Pakistan is safe harbor plus. The influx of millions more will simply be disastrous for Pakistan.

Pakistan should have closed down border on Afghan refugees in 1980s when Russia was wiping out rural population of Afghanistan.

 

[rohailmalhi]

Pakistan should have closed down border on Afghan refugees in 1980s when Russia was wiping out rural population of Afghanistan.

What we did was in good faith back then. But Afghans used the opportunity to damage pakistan in every possible way.
So this time mine the border . Keep tight control.Kick the refugees back to afghanistan.

Say No to them once and for all. We have suffered alot on the hand of afghans and those cheap people still hate us the most.

 

[Marwat Khan Lodhi]

What we did was in good faith back then. But Afghans used the opportunity to damage pakistan in every possible way.
So this time mine the border . Keep tight control.Kick the refugees back to afghanistan.

Say No to them once and for all. We have suffered alot on the hand of afghans and those cheap people still hate us the most.

But at that time we fully knew about Afghan people that what kind of people they are, what are their traits and characteristics yet we opened our borders for them..............If afghan mohajirs damaged our socioeconomic conditions then we were fully aware of such consequences when we were opening our borders to millions of them....

Mining the border is a good idea, but it should be with consent of tribes on Pakistani side.

 

[474474]

But at that time we fully knew about Afghan people that what kind of people they are, what are their traits and characteristics yet we opened our borders for them..............If afghan mohajirs damaged our socioeconomic conditions then we were fully aware of such consequences when we were opening our borders to millions of them....

Mining the border is a good idea, but it should be with consent of tribes on Pakistani side.

You don't know how much punjabis worship proud brave afghans, hell i have a cousin who believes afghistan is the best country in the world because of noble taliban
Only now we realise how gun culture is bad in cities

 

[My-Analogous]

You expect a huge inflow of Afghan refugees again? which it seems is the most obvious thing to happen - what Pakistan should do is to sensitize the world bodies about this impending scenario and seek help to curtail it or at least aid it to handle it.

Why not India. After you guys are helping them. right

 

[muse]

Don’t give up on Afghanistan
By Michael O’Hanlon
Published: 20:00 July 13, 2013
Gulf News

Image Credit: Luis Vazquez/©Gulf News

The Obama administration is reportedly considering an accelerated pullout of US forces in Afghanistan, followed by a “zero option” — the complete elimination of an American and, presumably, international military presence in Afghanistan after 2014. This is an understandable but unwise idea. Even raising it as a bargaining device is a mistake in our ongoing mission in Afghanistan — a place that President Barack Obama clearly considers crucial to US security, given that more than 60,000 US troops are still there.

In fairness, the zero-option idea has appeal not only because the war has been long and frustrating but also because Afghan President Hamid Karzai has been so difficult to work with. Beyond all the past brouhahas over corruption, tainted elections and other matters, there is the burst of invective Karzai recently levelled against the US over what he described as a duplicitous approach to negotiating with the Taliban.

Karzai has criticised Washington and broken off negotiations about the long-term US presence because, when the Taliban opened an office for exploratory peace talks in Doha, Qatar, last month, it again called itself the Government of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan and otherwise sought to portray the new facility as a quasi-embassy for a government in waiting.

Karzai decided that Washington was complicit because the Obama administration failed to prevent that outcome.

Karzai worries that US officials will secretly cut a deal with the Taliban at his expense to hasten the US troop departure from Afghanistan. Karzai has also accused the US of instigating radical extremism on his territory, and he suspects that our real desire in having bases in Afghanistan after next year is quasi-imperialist, with an eye toward broader regional purposes beyond the immediate needs of Afghanistan and counterterrorism.

These actions and this attitude toward Washington are indeed regrettable. But they are no reason for the US to threaten to pull the plug on all it has invested in Afghanistan.

Karzai outbursts

Karzai’s recent outbursts, although excessive, are partly understandable. He had warned the Obama administration in private and public that the Taliban would seek to use its new political office in Doha as a virtual embassy. Washington not only failed to prevent that development but also seemed caught off-guard when it happened.

The bigger point, however, is this: Karzai is not Afghanistan, nor does he represent all Afghans. He won two presidential elections — and the US should do a better job of acknowledging that he earned a mandate from his own people, despite election irregularities.

But Karzai’s frustrations with the war and the international community, and his frequent lashing-out, should not be conflated with any desire by most Afghans for US troops to leave.

Virtually all other Afghan political leaders I know very much want the international community to stay and remember all too well what happened a quarter-century ago, when the US abruptly terminated its role in their country. Leaving too soon, and withdrawing all US and international forces, would greatly increase the risk of mission failure for the international community.

An accelerated departure and a zero option are inconsistent with the fact that Afghan security forces, although much improved, still need support and guidance and will continue to need them even after the Nato mission ends next year. This aid includes air support, technical aspects of intelligence, bomb-clearing technology and embedded mentors for commanders in the field.

Afghan security forces are holding their own on the battlefield and are in the lead nationwide. US force numbers are down by one-third from their peak in 2011, and our rate of casualties has declined by an even higher percentage since then.

Commitment

Afghan army and police casualties are way up, indicating a commitment to the fight that we should admire and want to support. Yet the Afghan forces aren’t strong enough to win or even guarantee continued containment of the Taliban on their own.

Beyond the military effects, if the international community totally withdrew, Afghan reformers and all those interested in building a new Afghanistan would suffer a huge psychological blow. Echoes of 1989 would be unmistakable. The ensuing crisis of confidence could be fatal. Indeed, it could affect next year’s presidential elections, as many politicians and citizens could respond by seeking protection within their own ethnic communities, when what is needed is national unity.

US officials may perceive the zero option as a smart negotiating tactic, but it actually reinforces the hedging behaviour, especially in Pakistan, that allows the Taliban to maintain sanctuaries there. Pakistan’s intelligence services and military see the Taliban as their backup plan, should Afghanistan revert to civil war, or chaos, after a premature Nato pullout.

Some in Pakistan challenge this approach, but most Pakistanis will see little reason to question their long-standing strategy as long as we keep talking about a zero option.

The US would be much better served by declaring its desire to help Afghanistan, provided that Afghans do their part and have a serious election next year and that Karzai then step down as required by his country’s constitution (and as he has pledged to do).

We need to help the Afghans with that process and avoid being bogged down in public squabbles that serve no constructive purpose.

— Washington Post

Michael O’Hanlon is a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. He has observed Afghan elections and made several trips there sponsored by the ISAF.

 

[RangerPK]

You know, I usually don't like speaking in matters. When two Muslim groups fight with each other. but i would speak in this thread anyways. i think we shouldn't take sides, when two groups of Muslims fight each other, so better for Pakistan to stay away and be neutral. How ever, we might expect more afghan refugees coming to Pakistan legally or illegally. Whether we like it or not, we have to deal with them. We need to provide,food, shelter and cloths to them. Basically jobs for afghans..also we need stronger law enforment agencies, and stronger justice system, to eliminate any deviant element which might be present. Hopefully we do not make the same mistakes as before.


ideally I would like to see afghans migrate to Pakistan, Become patriotic Pakistani citizens, and live in peace in Pakistan, where ever they want.


PS: we need to create jobs for afghans in Pakistan so they don't become parasitic on tax payers money.

 

[SQ8]

ideally I would like to see afghans migrate to Pakistan, Become patriotic Pakistani citizens, and live in peace in Pakistan, where ever they want..

The last time they did so, Peshawar turned from a wonderful place into a Heroine and gun infested city. Karachi was swamped with drugs and guns... and we ended up with a leap in crime rates. Not sure if Pakistan can take anymore of Afghan migration.
They work best in their country, it is their responsibility to fix it.
Unfortunately our military is short sighted.. otherwise the best solution was to build a wall like that of GAZA. The Afghans would be happy that the interfering Pakistanis are out, and we would have a much more stable country.

 

[Armstrong]

The last time they did so, Peshawar turned from a wonderful place into a Heroine and gun infested city. Karachi was swamped with drugs and guns... and we ended up with a leap in crime rates. Not sure if Pakistan can take anymore of Afghan migration.
They work best in their country, it is their responsibility to fix it.
Unfortunately our military is short sighted.. otherwise the best solution was to build a wall like that of GAZA. The Afghans would be happy that the interfering Pakistanis are out, and we would have a much more stable country.

We're not the size of Israel !

 

[SQ8]

We're not the size of Israel !

Tu thori choti bana dein ge.

 

[Armstrong]

Tu thori choti bana dein ge.

Nahin ho saktaaa ! I don't think anything but levies manning the border with some incentives in place for them not to let the Afghans in for some Rokraaaa might be a better bet !

Heck even the Americans aren't able to stop the Mexicans from crossing in every year in the thousands if not more ! And I'm sure the Pak-Afghan Border with its thousands of ravines, gullies & caves is even more porous.

 

[Anonymous_CryptoSpy]

may be GoP shud engage in trading and investing on afgan so that they can be self reliant. this will not only create jobs in afgan but pak will be benefited as well

 

[RangerPK]

The last time they did so, Peshawar turned from a wonderful place into a Heroine and gun infested city. Karachi was swamped with drugs and guns... and we ended up with a leap in crime rates. Not sure if Pakistan can take anymore of Afghan migration.
They work best in their country, it is their responsibility to fix it.
Unfortunately our military is short sighted.. otherwise the best solution was to build a wall like that of GAZA. The Afghans would be happy that the interfering Pakistanis are out, and we would have a much more stable country.

I also added, become patriotic Pakistanis and live Peacefully. Ideally that is. I think the crime rate can also be blamed on our miss-management , bad governance, and lack of justice. Even the criminals of our local population are out of hand.

It just shows how ill prepared we are to take up the task of a sudden fluctuation in the population, in case there is a refugee crisis. I thought we might have learned something from 1947 mass migration, but I guess we haven't. We are ill prepared. Are we gonna just keep going like this? What if USA Attacked Iran, there might be a refugee crisis from there as well, are we going to be as ill prepared as we have been.

I think we need to have an idealistic aim, if there is any mass migration in Pakistan, our state should be strong enough to absorb refugees into our state, make them our law abiding citizen, and make them into an asset.