Pakistan Needs J-20 If It Wants To Stand A Chance

[MastanKhan]

Sir,
For deep strike capabilities with great loiter time and heavy payload Su-35 still beats any fifth gen A/C be it J-20, J-31 or F-35 or even F-22.

That's why I say that a heavy fighter like SU-35 will still have a specific role even if PAF acquires fifth gens especially for maritime role since PNS won't go for ACC so we need a land based long range capable squadron that can carry four heavy AShMs like C-400 akgs, Raad ALCM and sink a few frigates / ACCs of INS in a single sortie.

Hi,

The JH7B has a longer range than the SU35---. Now if you can get the SU34---that would be wonderment.

Just remember---it is not the size of he dog---but the fight in the dog that will count---.

One opponents frigate sunk will change the shape of the battle arena---.

The JH7B with the right package would be an extremely potent strike aircraft.

 

[AFlover]

Isn't J20 China's F22, if Pakistan purchases J20 who will buy the export version J-xx? Also if China sells J20 to other countries what will be classified about it then? Who knows probably US will be studying it but taking it down part by part in Pakistan then

China will not provide J20 to Pakistan until the relationship between US and Pakistan really get worst and they reduce their diplomatic relationship to an enemy level to make sure not a single percent chance of techinology leakage

 

[DJ_Viper]

Isn't J20 China's F22, if Pakistan purchases J20 who will buy the export version J-xx? Also if China sells J20 to other countries what will be classified about it then? Who knows probably US will be studying it but taking it down part by part in Pakistan then

Sir, there are significantly higher chances that China will sell the J-20 to Pakistan. They might name it a little different, take out some of their "Gold standard" avionics from it, but more than likely, it will end up in Pakistan over the next 10 years. Why? you ask? Simply because the Chinese want to create strategic parity between India and Pakistan, it can never be 1:1, but the idea is to make one strong enough that the other one doesn't try to "venture".

I read somewhere on this forum a while ago that "what happens if India loses over 100 of her SU-30's in a war with Pakistan". There was a lot of Wisdom in that comment. Losing 100-200 of India's top tier aircraft will obviously cause dozens of billions worth of loss, but it would also take the IAF about 15 years behind. Procuring the JFT (building in China and Pakistan) and used F-16's is a lot easier than procuring the SU-30's and then customizing them through Israel. Two step process and entirely different.

Any of these scenarios will put India on a very weak and vulnerable spot in-front of China, not to mention moral and other internal issues. Thanks

 

[Muhammad Omar]

But the real question is will China Sell these to PAF???

 

[Joe Shearer]

Sir, I am not sure if I follow your strategy as it doesn't make sense. 36 J20 and 144/216 JFT bock III's and what about 80 PakFa's supported by 250 SU-30's and 36 Rafales? The point is, these are imaginary scenarios and don't make real sense in a real war. We can continue to write about these for the next 20 years and get happy online.

One thing the Pakistanis can do (and probably will do) is to create an extensive SAM system in multiple layers. SAMs are cheaper and in numbers, more effective. If they can mass produce advanced SAMs, they wouldn't need 600 jets to match the IAF.

2-3 SAMs per invading aircraft have almost 95% kill ratio as the aircraft starts to bleed energy and loses agility after evading the 1st incoming missile. Its gets worst after the 2nd missile (granted there is a few seconds worth of difference between the firing sequence). So a 3rd SAM has almost over 98% chance to take out the target. Now if you did this and took out 200 IAF jets (by using 600 missiles, probably costing less then the cost of 10-15 jets), it is a bargain. Plus you could deploy a massive number of SAM systems in rings within any country and that ring can protect you from jamming and incoming attacks as the second and third tier will always be protected. Destruction of the second AD SAM ring really means the country has lost over 75% of their air-force, Radars and SAM network. So at that point, its a losing game no matter what you do. Thanks

This is precisely what I think they (as distinct from 'we' LOL) ought to do. Not invest millions in cash and in loans on shiny new toys.

Sir, Everyone with advanced data link and C&C capability is looking for a "Missile Truck" scenario. I am sure you'll find stuff on USAF too, trying to use drones, C-130's, B1B's, and many other platforms to make a missile rain on incoming fleet of aircraft, with mere couple of "directors" in place (like the F-22 and the JSF). So the concept isn't new. India also plans to use the PakFa with SU-30's on the back (SU-30 can hold 8-12 bvr missiles with various fuel configurations). A 100 SU-30's theoretically can use 800-1200 BVR missiles. But the issue is, no one will fly an entire air-force at once to face 800 BVR missiles and there is a lot more to the air-warfare then we can imagine on here. Thanks

Are there two of you writing these posts? I am thoroughly confused. On the one hand, we have these very intelligent summaries. Let me not go to the other hand; I'd have to wash carefully afterwards.

Seriously confused.

Sir, there are significantly higher chances that China will sell the J-20 to Pakistan. They might name it a little different, take out some of their "Gold standard" avionics from it, but more than likely, it will end up in Pakistan over the next 10 years. Why? you ask? Simply because the Chinese want to create strategic parity between India and Pakistan, it can never be 1:1, but the idea is to make one strong enough that the other one doesn't try to "venture".

I read somewhere on this forum a while ago that "what happens if India loses over 100 of her SU-30's in a war with Pakistan". There was a lot of Wisdom in that comment. Losing 100-200 of India's top tier aircraft will obviously cause dozens of billions worth of loss, but it would also take the IAF about 15 years behind. Procuring the JFT (building in China and Pakistan) and used F-16's is a lot easier than procuring the SU-30's and then customizing them through Israel. Two step process and entirely different.

Any of these scenarios will put India on a very weak and vulnerable spot in-front of China, not to mention moral and other internal issues. Thanks

You are right, but at this stage, India is weakest and most vulnerable. Once the gaps get plugged, if they get plugged, it will be difficult for Pakistan to resist the next wave, which will not be with the well-provisioned military, it will be through other means. And I DO NOT hint at underhand funding of terrorists.

 

[MastanKhan]

But the real question is will China Sell these to PAF???

Hi,

That is where you need car salesmanship---. You can have anything and everything in chinese arsenal when the right person talks to them---.

Your pakistani problem is corruption & communication---.

 

[DJ_Viper]

This is precisely what I think they (as distinct from 'we' LOL) ought to do. Not invest millions in cash and in loans on shiny new toys.

Are there two of you writing these posts? I am thoroughly confused. On the one hand, we have these very intelligent summaries. Let me not go to the other hand; I'd have to wash carefully afterwards.

Seriously confused.

You are right, but at this stage, India is weakest and most vulnerable. Once the gaps get plugged, if they get plugged, it will be difficult for Pakistan to resist the next wave, which will not be with the well-provisioned military, it will be through other means. And I DO NOT hint at underhand funding of terrorists.

Sir, I don't understand the confusion, feel free to explain. I do analysis based on my experience, knowledge and things I've learned (using logic). So I don't do one sided analysis. Not sure what you were trying to say, please elaborate.

On the other hand, when a country goes as far as saying "Pakistan is our Israel", referring to remarks I heard and read about in the media not to long ago by the Chinese senior leaders, the rest you can guess in terms of this being a strategic game. The Chinese have a huge trade interest in Pakistan, as well as a strategic interest with respect to India and access to the Gulf before India does (so in many ways, Indian ports can be sandwiched between Pakistani ports having the Chinese military and the SCS on the other side. So knowing this, one can easily guess that Pakistanis are the most strategic need for the Chinese. Iran is pro-India so it won't bow down to the Chinese masters against India.

So that leaves you back to the comment about Pakistan being the Chinese Israel, aka, a strategic defense pact is either already in place verbally, or one will be set pretty soon. Some of the Western media outlets were showing the "beginning of trade through the new Silk route" through Pakistani ports into China. So anyone can use the logic and understand where this is headed. Now linking this back to the J-20 for a nice conclusion, you will either see the Chinese "enabling" the Pakistanis to build stealthy jets at the level they need (heavier ones), or will give them the J-20 instead of the TOT. This is just a matter of time. Thanks

 

[Joe Shearer]

Sir, I don't understand the confusion, feel free to explain. I do analysis based on my experience, knowledge and things I've learned (using logic). So I don't do one sided analysis. Not sure what you were trying to say, please elaborate.

I was eating crow and trying to make it look normal.

On the other hand, when a country goes as far as saying "Pakistan is our Israel", referring to remarks I heard and read about in the media not to long ago by the Chinese senior leaders, the rest you can guess in terms of this being a strategic game. The Chinese have a huge trade interest in Pakistan, as well as a strategic interest with respect to India and access to the Gulf before India does (so in many ways, Indian ports can be sandwiched between Pakistani ports having the Chinese military and the SCS on the other side. So knowing this, one can easily guess that Pakistanis are the most strategic need for the Chinese. Iran is pro-India so it won't bow down to the Chinese masters against India.

Hadn't heard this remark, but it makes an unfortunate amount of sense.

So that leaves you back to the comment about Pakistan being the Chinese Israel, aka, a strategic defense pact is either already in place verbally, or one will be set pretty soon. Some of the Western media outlets were showing the "beginning of trade through the new Silk route" through Pakistani ports into China. So anyone can use the logic and understand where this is headed. Now linking this back to the J-20 for a nice conclusion, you will either see the Chinese "enabling" the Pakistanis to build stealthy jets at the level they need (heavier ones), or will give them the J-20 instead of the TOT. This is just a matter of time. Thanks

What is left unsaid is that two dictatorships, one overt and one covert, do not need strategic defence pacts on paper, just an 'understanding'.

Lol when was he serious about that statement........ I too thought otherwise though - initially

So that's two of you expletive deleted who can't grasp sarcasm.

Hi,

That is where you need car salesmanship---. You can have anything and everything in chinese arsenal when the right person talks to them---.

Your pakistani problem is corruption & communication---.

If you promise not to get me banned, I would like to point out that China seems to have the best car salesmen at the moment.

 

[fatman17]

J20 is not for export at this point, the J31 is.

 

[Akasa]

Hi,

That is where you need car salesmanship---. You can have anything and everything in chinese arsenal when the right person talks to them---.

Your pakistani problem is corruption & communication---.

What do you think this is, the Clinton Foundation? Pay for play scheme?

 

[DJ_Viper]

J20 is not for export at this point, the J31 is.

Sir, the term "export" is very subjective when it comes to China and the rest of the world, and China with respect to Pakistan. Whether Pakistan gets the J-20 directly, or China enables her to build a stealthy JFT, its the same thing. The Chinese know that they have to enable Pakistan to keep a minimum defensive posture against India. Otherwise, India and the IAF ten years from now, would be a regional air-force with over 800 jets (80% of which would be 4th gen+), and it would be very difficult to deal with it on Pakistan's own.

What do you think this is, the Clinton Foundation? Pay for play scheme?

Sir, I think he is referring to the businessman's ability to close a deal no matter how hostile the other side may be. Its a common term used in the US. A car salesman can deal with anyone and in any situation, no matter what the customer says, or who the customer is and he still makes the deal. I kind of agree, Pakistan could seriously use a few car salesmen.

 

[Cookie Monster]

Sir, I am not sure if I follow your strategy as it doesn't make sense. 36 J20 and 144/216 JFT bock III's and what about 80 PakFa's supported by 250 SU-30's and 36 Rafales? The point is, these are imaginary scenarios and don't make real sense in a real war. We can continue to write about these for the next 20 years and get happy online.

U r right these scenarios are imaginary and I doubt India would ever use full strength of its Air Force/Army solely against Pakistan in case of a war. India would always be wary of China and would refrain from leaving its borders with China unprotected and devote everything to fight Pakistan. This is actually one of the causes of massive Indian build up bcuz they are preparing based on a two front war scenario.

However even a limited number deployed against Pakistan would still be numerically superior and so Pakistan needs to still upgrade its Air Force.

One thing the Pakistanis can do (and probably will do) is to create an extensive SAM system in multiple layers. SAMs are cheaper and in numbers, more effective. If they can mass produce advanced SAMs, they wouldn't need 600 jets to match the IAF.

I agree completely, the best scenario would be to have these multiple layered SAM systems and hundreds of JF17s in defensive role protecting air space over the entire country along with F16s as the tip of the spear(AWACS and ground based radars data linked with all these assets). All this just for defense and top it off with a few squadrons of twin engine fighter jets for some deep strike capability for offense when needed and the enemy will think twice before attacking.

 

[Zain Malik]

Looks like a beast In the Sky:

 

[CHACHA"G"]

Hello all
As our Air Chief said many time that PAF looking for eastern and western Tech and bird combo (the best because of many reasons) only few options come in my mind which fit in modern advance warfare and tech era .
These will also cover all type of operational needs and Requirements.

Now its the best east and west we can come up , for some here Russia will not supply Pakistan SU-35 or any but what if Russia wont stop China to supply the copies ( J11 , J15 , 16 , 17 )
For me PAF should need to invest and participate in J31 and TFX ........ J31 we can have them in good numbers and J20 + TFX in good numbers .
The above will take time and money , We kind of have both "But if we start ASAP"
It will take good 15 years or may be more but I would say if we work on this till 2035 PAF will be as strong as any other world power's Air Force , if u all let may say I will say it will be USA , Russia , China , India , Pakistan and then rest of the world .
I bring Pakistan on 5th Place because of above Pic , If PAF work and have all of above ,till 2035 to 2040 , I seriously think no other country can match PAF .
Thank U all

 

[Mugwop]

Pakistan is falling further and further behind against India for Air Superiority let alone Air Parity. It's only chance is to buy at least 36 J-20.

each J-20 will command & control 4 to 6 JF-17 blk 3, the J-20 will fly ahead and use it's stealth/sensors to find targets and relay this information to the JF-17, the JF-17 will launch their SD-10 and the J-20 will take control of these missiles via a two way data link.

36 J20 144/216 JF block 3

this would level the playing field.

My man PAF is not used to huge fighters.
They will probably go for a medium size J-31