Rafi
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This is a piece I had written before the acquisition of Type 54A was revealed in another thread (Sparrow needed). We do talk about the weapon systems till death but seldom discuss where they fit into the strategy. So I thought let me give it a try--so here it goes. I have updated the write-up in italics in light of new acquisitions.
"IMHO and with little bit of study of Naval Power, Pak Navy's role is defensive and keeping its SLOC open during a conflict with India. Its strike element is its Submarine Force and Aviation Arm and not its surface fleet!
Adding a AAW frigate with strong AShM is at the most extending the Air Defense umbrella a little bit further into the ocean to guard its SLOC.... again essentially, a defensive role for the surface fleet.
I for one do not see PN going beyond acquiring two heavy AAW Frigates around which it can build two flotillas with a mix of one AAW and possibly two ASW frigates with heavy AShM punch. Two ASW (this was written before the announcement of Type 54A) Frigates are a min. must for an effective ASW patrol and hunting (but I have serious doubts about F22P and its ASW capability with light weight torps. and its sonar. Maybe, the next round of purchase from either Turkey or China will beef up this area). This dove tails with two Fleet Replenishment Platforms operated by PN (I believe very soon, work on the second ship of the Turkish Fleet Tanker will be started). By the latest order, of surface vessels not one but two fleet replenishment ships need to be added to the fleet to support four patrol groups.
One of the Patrol groups will be, in my opinion, stationed off the coast of Southern part of Oman in the event hostilities and the other will be somewhere off the coast of Gawader. Gawader becoming the primary port of entry for both oil and dry cargo and very soon and will be used as such in the event of open hostilities breaking out between India and Pakistan. Ideally there should be three patrol groups one should be based near Socotra (Using Chinese base at Djibouti as replenishment base) and the other, somewhere off the coast of Al Wusta province of Oman. The north most group should be positioned east of Gawader and its patrol area should be the approaches to the straits of Hurmuz. This way search and seizure of India bound vessels can be carried out (However, If China openly sides with Pakistan than Djibouti can be used to mount patrols by Chinese Navy and free up PN units to concentrate more towards the coast mid of Oman and Hurmuz) This strategy would require a home port for the southern most group (That will be provided by I guess Djibouti.. the Chinese Base there). PN has now pretty long experience of navigating/patrolling these waters for anti piracy operations. However such a strategy will dictate three AAW frigates and atleast four more ASW/AShM frigates.
The above strategy has been vindicated by the order of not two, not three but four Type 54A frigates! They will form the core of the four Surface Patrol/Hunter Killer Anti Submarine Groups and the fourth will be stationed behind the picket/patrol line of submarines south east of Karachi, complimenting their patrol and provide support in the event of a seaborne landings near Sir Creek area which I anticipate will happen to tie down PA troops south of Chorr away from Northern Sindh and Naara Area.
The COMSUB would most certainly use its hunter killers in a patrol arc starting about 100 KM off the coast of Runn of Kutch and ending somewhere west of Karachi but between Ormara and KHI.
The airborne LRP and Early Warning will be provided, in this area, by Orions and Karakoram Eagles and Deep Strike by the Naval Strike element out of Mehran and Masroor respectively.
Airborne LRP/Strike will be provided again by Orions and KE's out of Turbat. (One of the KE is temporarily stationed at PAF Shahrahe e Faisal. There are only Three permanent facilities for KE at Masroor. I believe the fourth and any subsequent follow-on orders for these birds will be stationed at Turbat to provide long range AWACS support West of Karachi.) In the West. Point air defense and CAP will be provided by PAF planes out of Pasni. But this needs to be beefed up as currently the PAF base over there can only handle eight fighter a/c to cover Ormara and Gawader (Pasni is situated about midway between Gawader and Ormara). Two more pens are under construction at PAF Pasni that would give 8 + 2 pens at Pasni, and 4 at Gawader. Again inadequate Point defense cover specially keeping in-view that they will be facing the Indian SU menace)
Close in Littoral defense will be the responsibility of various of corvettes and Fast Attack Missile boats being added to PN fleet. The pivot points for this defense would be the three ports of PQA, KHI & Gawader. Ormara would defend its self from air and sea attack by on Land AA/SAM assets and shore based AsHM if need be. The high powered surveillance radar at both Hawakes Bay and Ormara gives a panoramic view of the approaches to both KHI (Main Naval Base) and Ormara (Right now the secondary Naval Facility). Addition of six more FAC's are expected that will help provide the inshore defense at both Gawader and Ormara.
The strategic punch will remain with atleast two Chinese built Subs out of the eight being acquired, armed with nuclear tipped cruise missiles. By the end of the program of inducting eight subs, PN will have 11 subs (INMHO 12 are the min. required but that is my opinion). Which will be sufficient to mount effective aggressor patrols far out into and beyond our EEZ. ACNS NSFC will have direct command over the use of the two nuclear armed subs through COMSUB PN.
I also believe that PN is looking for an effective deep strike Air Element to counter the IN Carrier Group. Also lacking is a coherent and credible Air defense of the coastal belt West of Karachi. PAF has neglected this area and I do not see any significant activity on ground to close this gap. In total there are not more than a dozen or so hardened pens in the entire Markran Coastal Belt!! In past wargames conducted at the War College, SU-30 long range and the threat of its use towards the western approaches was a real headache. This was validated in a number of simulations played over many courses at the War College. I am not divulging a military secret here. It is a known fact and was played out even where foreign course participants/officers were part of the simulations.
I acknowledge that there are definite holes in the above scenario. But the general deployment would be similar to what I surmise above.
My 2C's worth. Please feel free to shoot holes in it!!"
A thorough thoughtful analysis.