Pakistan Navy---A Day Late & A Dollar Short:---

[ghazi768]

You have completely failed to even consider my basic premise and have gone off on a tangent. I did not say a submarine's main disadvantage is its lack of stealth or the time it can remain submerged. I said a submarine's main disadvantage is that it reveals it's position by attacking and it has a low speed. A navy the size of IN can respond by saturating the surrounding area with depth charges they don't even have to detect the sub on their radars. So we counter such saturation attacks by wielding nuclear tipped missiles which makes any large naval formations a moot point. I don't see how whatever you have written applies to my post.

I hope you had not taken my last reply as a rebuttal but only as a talking point, especially the initial sentences of your post, to jump in a discussion.

Yes, I presume that a submarine can get detected on firing its load of torpedoes but I think that will greatly depend upon the kind of torpedoes you have as well as the tactical strategy and choices submarine staff will make in doing so, duration of time and success the targets will have in detecting the threat and avoiding it. Presuming that a firing will always reveal a position of a submarine and will lead to its sinking is incorrect.

Also depth charging is an age old technology, even if some start using rockets or mortars to saturate a small amount of area and even that is not a recent invention. if you have ever seen Navy doing depth charging it is a bloody intensive task. And my understanding is that a depth charge needs to be a bit near to a sub to cause any damage.

You can study the case of hangoor, it was a sub with older tech, needed to snorkel a lot and daily, had older more louder and unguided torpedoes, was against two frigates specialised in anti-submarine warfare, one was sunk, one ran away. Later whole Indian fleet tried hunting it and depth charged it but failed.

Nuclear tipped missiles or torpedoes is whole different ball game, it is a nice to have capability but one option that you end up wishing never to use especially against an opponent armed with nuclear weaponry as well. There is no such thing as 'escalate to de-escalate', that is plain bullshit. Basically, any thing nuclear is an option of last resort.

 

[fitpOsitive]

Hi,

Pakistan's military conglomerate has again been caught short---the surfacing of the indian sub 40 nautical miles away just when the chinese naval ship was visiting pakistan---and the inauguration of CPEC route at Gwadar just showed the pak navy was woefully ill-equipped.

A few years ago when the rumors surfaced about pak military signing a 5 billion dollars deal for 8 chinese subs and supply time of 10 years from the time of signing---and delivery of the last submarine---.

I had written that---that deal was totally ill prepared and ill conceived---. I had stated that the target should have been 5 years project---number of submarine cut in half---and the other half split between surface ships and an aircraft of the type of JH7B---.

So---that all the three facets are covered at the same time in parallel---by three different groups---which has three times the force multiplier effect---.

So rather than just having 4 submarines in 5 years----you would also have 3-4 frigates of the 5000 + tonnage capacity plus at least 4 sqdrns of heavies---be it the JH7B---or the J16's----and some smaller vessels in the 500---1500 tonnage---.

After the 5 years---another deal of 5 billion signed for more subs and ships if needed.

The casual and callous attitude of the pak military showed that it did not foresee or visualize such an incident happening so close to its waters---and that shows a very poor understanding of what is at stake in the arena---at Gwadar---the arabian sea---the gulf---.

Basically---pak military has been caught with its pants down one more time.

I second you opinion.

 

[CriticalThought]

I hope you had not taken my last reply as a rebuttal but only as a talking point, especially the initial sentences of your post, to jump in a discussion.

Yes, I presume that a submarine can get detected on firing its load of torpedoes but I think that will greatly depend upon the kind of torpedoes you have as well as the tactical strategy and choices submarine staff will make in doing so, duration of time and success the targets will have in detecting the threat and avoiding it. Presuming that a firing will always reveal a position of a submarine and will lead to its sinking is incorrect.

Also depth charging is an age old technology, even if some start using rockets or mortars to saturate a small amount of area and even that is not a recent invention. if you have ever seen Navy doing depth charging it is a bloody intensive task. And my understanding is that a depth charge needs to be a bit near to a sub to cause any damage.

You can study the case of hangoor, it was a sub with older tech, needed to snorkel a lot and daily, had older more louder and unguided torpedoes, was against two frigates specialised in anti-submarine warfare, one was sunk, one ran away. Later whole Indian fleet tried hunting it and depth charged it but failed.

Nuclear tipped missiles or torpedoes is whole different ball game, it is a nice to have capability but one option that you end up wishing never to use especially against an opponent armed with nuclear weaponry as well. There is no such thing as 'escalate to de-escalate', that is plain bullshit. Basically, any thing nuclear is an option of last resort.

Thanks for the clarification.

What I am concentrating on is the massive quantitative and qualitative disparity between the Pak Navy and IN and the easiest way we can balance that. My scenario is intentionally apocalyptic: a huge IN battle group moves towards Pakistan with nefarious intentions. You would have seen Indian posters here bragging about their Navy. This is a rejoinder that false pride grounded in numerical superiority will lead to obliteration.

As I have said previously, we definitely need to invest in our naval fleet. But in the Indo/Pak context, the distances involved and the capabilities available on both sides makes huge fleets of large surface vessels an oxymoron. Which means we can sit back and enjoy seeing at our neighbors wasting money on a blue water Navy to 'project power'. I would love to read a research paper that explains Indian 'projection of power' in more detail.

My personal view of navsl warfare in the sub-continent is that it will be largely sub-surface. A completely arbitrary, off-the-cuff division that I would present is 80% sub-surface and 20% surface assets for ASW and AShW. There is still a case for land attack vessels and the number/type of these will be dictated by an overall war doctrine. I haven't given much thought on the subject.

Would LOVE to receive constructive criticism of the numbers above by you as well as others.

 

[ghazi768]

Thanks for the clarification.

What I am concentrating on is the massive quantitative and qualitative disparity between the Pak Navy and IN and the easiest way we can balance that. My scenario is intentionally apocalyptic: a huge IN battle group moves towards Pakistan with nefarious intentions. You would have seen Indian posters here bragging about their Navy. This is a rejoinder that false pride grounded in numerical superiority will lead to obliteration.

As I have said previously, we definitely need to invest in our naval fleet. But in the Indo/Pak context, the distances involved and the capabilities available on both sides makes huge fleets of large surface vessels an oxymoron. Which means we can sit back and enjoy seeing at our neighbors wasting money on a blue water Navy to 'project power'. I would love to read a research paper that explains Indian 'projection of power' in more detail.

My personal view of navsl warfare in the sub-continent is that it will be largely sub-surface. A completely arbitrary, off-the-cuff division that I would present is 80% sub-surface and 20% surface assets for ASW and AShW. There is still a case for land attack vessels and the number/type of these will be dictated by an overall war doctrine. I haven't given much thought on the subject.

Would LOVE to receive constructive criticism of the numbers above by you as well as others.

I agree with you, not sure about what percentage share the surface and submerged parts should have, but over-all relying more on sub-surface armed with latest technology and more AShMs, land as well as sea based, is steps in the right direction.
I was sifting through my collections of journals and came across an interesting article, it was probably written in US-China perspective but I think applies equally to our scenario as well. Just posting it as a matter of furthering discussion..

 

[araz]

No doubt I appreciate their expertise and services but when to mock the civilians, as you did, That too consistently, that is some thing that represent their mindset. and that mindset is deplorable.

The problem is that the civilians are to be blamed for their choices with regards to the governance they have chosen. We chose to bring in Zardari knowing fully well his reputation as an accumulator of money by any means available. We then brought in Ganja Sharif and his band of merry men and looters. They are not only filling their coffers at the expense of the public but also maligning ewvery organized instittution in their quest for total dominance.The armed forces were not responsible for those choices. The armed forces do not force people to sell their votes or vote on the basis of Biradari, regionalism and who pays more.
Sure the armed forces are not without their own actors and do have a lot of corruption in them but as institution people from the middle rank do stand up and put their careers on the line and say no. Not many civilians do!!!
A

My brother defeat comes after war not before and it is probable under the current circumstances given if you accept the reality that we lack too much and we plan not according to the requirements and the current threats and modern warfare, look at the 1300 ton saar 5 of Israel and compare it to any of our naval ship from 2500 to 4100 ton.

No Sir. You lose a war much beofre it has started. The morale of the nation, its economic standing, its belief in itself are much more important factors.
Although it hurts me immensely personally, I hhave to quote the example of East pakistan. You lost the war much before it actually started as you tried to crush a rebellion without taking into account what was required and imminently possible from Governance point of view to ease tensions. Why was a stupid idiot who did not have majority in PArlianment allowed to state "I will break the legs of anyonewho goes there". Why did hte army sit like a mute neutered institution instead of arresting a few individual and breaking their legs or transferring the power to the party with the most seat. The fact remains we handed over the Eastern wing without any tangible fight and on a silver platter. Or perhaps read the account of Sam Manek Shaw on the subject.
If you look at the Iran iraq War Iraq had the support of the whole world yet couuld not do anything against the determined Iranian forces. WHY???? No conviction .The US retreat from Vietnam or the Soviet union army against the Afghan resistance would not by any scope of imagination be considered a victory for the mighty.
A

Hi,

Thank you for some some excellent posts---. Young and adult pakistanis don't realize that naval weapons must be ordered 10-15 years before you want to be in a position to fully utilize their capabilities---.

Cant agree with you more. This is the one aspect where we have been lacking. Again I would say we have been trying to get by with older stuff due to lack of appropriate armaments as well as lack of finances. This is not a good approach in view of the latency between acquisition and appropriate useage to best advantage.
A

 

[CriticalThought]

The problem is that the civilians are to be blamed for their choices with regards to the governance they have chosen. We chose to bring in Zardari knowing fully well his reputation as an accumulator of money by any means available. We then brought in Ganja Sharif and his band of merry men and looters. They are not only filling their coffers at the expense of the public but also maligning ewvery organized instittution in their quest for total dominance.The armed forces were not responsible for those choices. The armed forces do not force people to sell their votes or vote on the basis of Biradari, regionalism and who pays more.
Sure the armed forces are not without their own actors and do have a lot of corruption in them but as institution people from the middle rank do stand up and put their careers on the line and say no. Not many civilians do!!!
A

Sir, we don't elect anyone. The waderas arm twist poor vassals into electing them. Polling station staff in collaboration with police cast fallacious votes to elect their favorite politicians. This is how many people come into power.

Thankfully, the balance of power lies with the armed forces with the pollies allowed to have their bit of fun. Gives the world a good impression. The only thing that I dislike about the current situation is the handling of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The civvies have no business (and I am not joking) conducting foreign affairs since they have no idea what kind of power Pakistan wields and what kinds of challenges we are ready to take on. I remember NS observing the recent Ra'ad ul Barq exercising sitting beside GRS and I imagine in my mind NS telling GRS:

'This is all fine, but wouldn't the Indians have all of this as well? As a matter of fact, I am certain the Indians have many times more of such toys and of higher quality. Let's just keep doing exercises within our borders, was is too dangerous.'

The humiliation of Heart of Asia, the repeated verbal insults hurled at us on international forums, and no cogent response. Shame. That's all I can say.

 

[araz]

Sir, we don't elect anyone. The waderas arm twist poor vassals into electing them. Polling station staff in collaboration with police cast fallacious votes to elect their favorite politicians. This is how many people come into power.

Thankfully, the balance of power lies with the armed forces with the pollies allowed to have their bit of fun. Gives the world a good impression. The only thing that I dislike about the current situation is the handling of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The civvies have no business (and I am not joking) conducting foreign affairs since they have no idea what kind of power Pakistan wields and what kinds of challenges we are ready to take on. I remember NS observing the recent Ra'ad ul Barq exercising sitting beside GRS and I imagine in my mind NS telling GRS:

'This is all fine, but wouldn't the Indians have all of this as well? As a matter of fact, I am certain the Indians have many times more of such toys and of higher quality. Let's just keep doing exercises within our borders, was is too dangerous.'

The humiliation of Heart of Asia, the repeated verbal insults hurled at us on international forums, and no cogent response. Shame. That's all I can say.

Thank you for your reply. I slightly disagree in that even though the Wadera arm twists people no one actuallly goes in to the polling station and casts the vote for them. The great majority of people are enamoured by the food they get and the money to cast their votes. The next fallacy is the polling staff and police casting votes. What are the other representative of the other parties doing? I agree this has happened during Zia times or during referendums where no other party was involved. Yes oddities do happen and a lot of Jaali votes are cast but it is the responsibility of the relevant members of the station to prrevent that.
the foreign office is entirely a different matter altogether as people are reared and trained for the job. If you have a trained beaurocrat then the minister assumes a supplementary role. What has been done is systematic destruction of the foreign office people and distribution of seats on hte basis of rewards or sifaarish. This is the matter rather than ARMY OR CIVVIES running the FO.
We as a nation have lost our pride. We have progressively taken this country as a golden goose good toloot but not good to serve. People want to run away and if our passport had any value I can bet you every educated pakistani and some non educated ones would be flying out like we have been beset with plague.
There are many things wrong with our country and the worst of it is lack of security. but poverty and 44% of the population being less than 25 hhas a lot to do with it. We need vision an ideology and SOME honesty to regain our lost pride. We need the NAwaz Shareefs and the Zardaris of our time to step out of hteir houses and see what the masses are rally feeling. In this matter the armed forces are also no better.
A

 

[Sheraz Patriot]

No Sir. You lose a war much beofre it has started. The morale of the nation, its economic standing, its belief in itself are much more important factors.
Although it hurts me immensely personally, I hhave to quote the example of East pakistan. You lost the war much before it actually started as you tried to crush a rebellion without taking into account what was required and imminently possible from Governance point of view to ease tensions. Why was a stupid idiot who did not have majority in PArlianment allowed to state "I will break the legs of anyonewho goes there". Why did hte army sit like a mute neutered institution instead of arresting a few individual and breaking their legs or transferring the power to the party with the most seat. The fact remains we handed over the Eastern wing without any tangible fight and on a silver platter. Or perhaps read the account of Sam Manek Shaw on the subject.
If you look at the Iran iraq War Iraq had the support of the whole world yet couuld not do anything against the determined Iranian forces. WHY???? No conviction .The US retreat from Vietnam or the Soviet union army against the Afghan resistance would not by any scope of imagination be considered a victory for the mighty.
Most respectfully win or loss is the end result after a fight or match.


My Part


We can predict by considering the situations and the morale and that is why i used 'loss is probable', but we have time to that is running fast if we dont utilize it then a loss and a shame.
If in the current equipment we have to fight a war like the Iran Iraq war what do you think the result would likely be?
In my opinion we would loss the 9 larger ships plus the smaller boats on which we spent millions and billions and all the personnel on board on the naval front. Though it would not last like that war.
Think of the other branches yourself and give your kind opinion?
Would the war last that long?
After we loss all our assets how much would be left for resistance?
We are not Iran or Iraq we are Pakistan and we have made enemies all around us except china. We need to look at our internal and foreign policy our defense and our forces.
Thanks

 

[CriticalThought]

Thank you for your reply. I slightly disagree in that even though the Wadera arm twists people no one actuallly goes in to the polling station and casts the vote for them. The great majority of people are enamoured by the food they get and the money to cast their votes. The next fallacy is the polling staff and police casting votes. What are the other representative of the other parties doing? I agree this has happened during Zia times or during referendums where no other party was involved. Yes oddities do happen and a lot of Jaali votes are cast but it is the responsibility of the relevant members of the station to prrevent that.
the foreign office is entirely a different matter altogether as people are reared and trained for the job. If you have a trained beaurocrat then the minister assumes a supplementary role. What has been done is systematic destruction of the foreign office people and distribution of seats on hte basis of rewards or sifaarish. This is the matter rather than ARMY OR CIVVIES running the FO.
We as a nation have lost our pride. We have progressively taken this country as a golden goose good toloot but not good to serve. People want to run away and if our passport had any value I can bet you every educated pakistani and some non educated ones would be flying out like we have been beset with plague.
There are many things wrong with our country and the worst of it is lack of security. but poverty and 44% of the population being less than 25 hhas a lot to do with it. We need vision an ideology and SOME honesty to regain our lost pride. We need the NAwaz Shareefs and the Zardaris of our time to step out of hteir houses and see what the masses are rally feeling. In this matter the armed forces are also no better.

I was a child (maybe 10-13 yrs) when I saw with my own two eyes the blatant casting of votes for the MQM kites. In areas under MQM hold, other political parties wouldn't dare to enter the polling station. I have heard that in rural areas poor vassals are carted in buses and trucks and forced to cast for a certain candidate. Remember we are talking about people who live in bonded labor.

Pakistan doesn't have politics of principles. We have politics based on the power of gun (whenever MQM is able to function) we have politics based on the power of subjugating the poor. Yes we also have the politics of obscene money to literally but the vote bank. We also have the politics of linguistics the politics of provincial interests (sindhu desh) etc etc. People elected through such a process do not deserve to rule.

If the army ever takes over foreign affairs, I am sure they will train themselves or hire well trained people to look after the portfolio. They have a lot of practice due to all the Marshal Laws.

 

[Syed_Adeel]

I really suggest Mastan Khan to goto Military planners and tell them how to take decisions, As per him all military planners are stupid enough to take any viable working decision.

 

[Sheraz Patriot]

My brother

I was a child (maybe 10-13 yrs) when I saw with my own two eyes the blatant casting of votes for the MQM kites. In areas under MQM hold, other political parties wouldn't dare to enter the polling station. I have heard that in rural areas poor vassals are carted in buses and trucks and forced to cast for a certain candidate. Remember we are talking about people who live in bonded labor.

Pakistan doesn't have politics of principles. We have politics based on the power of gun (whenever MQM is able to function) we have politics based on the power of subjugating the poor. Yes we also have the politics of obscene money to literally but the vote bank. We also have the politics of linguistics the politics of provincial interests (sindhu desh) etc etc. People elected through such a process do not deserve to rule.

If the army ever takes over foreign affairs, I am sure they will train themselves or hire well trained people to look after the portfolio. They have a lot of practice due to all the Marshal Laws.

My brother don't drag MQM it is a fashion in our politics, the situations you described are our self made. These so called muhajirs though they sacrificed more than any other Pakistani for Pakistan. It is our political insight and incapability to make such people to take arms. After almost 70 years they are still muhajirs why? Because of injustice ignorance and the personal benefits of the so called political leaders.

As per Mastan Khan we have no policy and no leadership,if we had leadership all important decisions would be made with mutual consensus at proper platforms.
But in those platforms we are only trying to exhaust our energies to save the thieves and destroy our beloved mother land.

 

[CriticalThought]

My brother

My brother don't drag MQM it is a fashion in our politics, the situations you described are our self made. These so called muhajirs though they sacrificed more than any other Pakistani for Pakistan. It is our political insight and incapability to make such people to take arms. After almost 70 years they are still muhajirs why? Because of injustice ignorance and the personal benefits of the so called political leaders.

MQM is just an example. I wouldn't be surprised if the exact same situation prevails in other areas as well.

 

[I FLY HIGH]

it am

Hi,

Finances are available---by slitting the 5 billion in two ways---2 1/2 billion for 4 subs and 2 1/2 billion for aircraft and ships----and then go for another 5 billion after 5 years---.

what you r saying makes sense , in the start 4 subs still give an immaculate strength the navy and if you add to this the naval dedicated air crafts and surface fleet , it makes sense .

 

[araz]

I was a child (maybe 10-13 yrs) when I saw with my own two eyes the blatant casting of votes for the MQM kites. In areas under MQM hold, other political parties wouldn't dare to enter the polling station. I have heard that in rural areas poor vassals are carted in buses and trucks and forced to cast for a certain candidate. Remember we are talking about people who live in bonded labor.

Pakistan doesn't have politics of principles. We have politics based on the power of gun (whenever MQM is able to function) we have politics based on the power of subjugating the poor. Yes we also have the politics of obscene money to literally but the vote bank. We also have the politics of linguistics the politics of provincial interests (sindhu desh) etc etc. People elected through such a process do not deserve to rule.

If the army ever takes over foreign affairs, I am sure they will train themselves or hire well trained people to look after the portfolio. They have a lot of practice due to all the Marshal Laws.

My friend thwre is no politics of principles. This is a sham lambasted by the west for unsettling the lesser fortunate countries. Thw recent doings of the political leaders of the west have amply proven that. So politics by itself is a tool for more power for the already powerful. If it is any consolation do you not see it as a coincidence that the thre major events in the region in the last40 yrs in our neighbourhood, we hace seen a military establishment in place. WHY? Because the political card can be used against them to make them more pliable. The one time we had someone who was showing signs of standing up to the system although I am no lover of that whole corrupt family, a leader was done away with and the taliban and then Musharraf conveniently blamed for it.
Take ot as a fact, politics will never work in Asia because of the mindset of people. Yet we fool ourselves in thinking it might so let the show go on.
Sorry forcthe long rant but the sham needs to be exposed.
A

 

[JK!]

Firstly I'd like to extend thanks to @MastanKhan for starting this thread. If nothing else it has allowed for debate and an exchange of ideas rarely seen here nowadays.

Being in Britain my thoughts on the submarine deal here are in comparison to the Royal Navy's acquisitions notably the Dreadnought class submarines that are being considered for service to replace the Vanguard Class which carries Britains nuclear deterrent.

Costs with that program when broken down are £11 to £14 billion just for the four submarines alone. Also £2 to £3 billion for the cost of infrastructure over the lifetime of the submarines.

If Pakistan is getting 8 subs for $5 billion with all associated costs then it seems to be a good deal. Late maybe as you've discussed in the initial post but better late than not at all surely.