Pakistan is at risk of default

[epebble]

Risk of having immediate elections is that people will expect relief from hardships post new government formation. Whoever forms the next government, should be ready to see political capital vanish within months.

There will never be any political capital to vanish. It will be the most fractious election and government forming, if there ever will be. Israel will look beautiful by comparison (in elections and government forming).

 

[VCheng]

I will respectfully disagree, I don't think that the rent-seekers will be able to survive without subsidies. This will lead to the collapse of these rent-seekers or at the very least it will collapse the way these rent-seeking corporations are run and force them to innovate for their survival. Considering this, I fail to understand how you can say that the current environment will not cause the current system to undergo substantive changes.

As I said, let us just agree to give the situation some more time to evolve. It will be clearer soon enough.

 

[_NOBODY_]

Actually, your own argument is the perfect proof why IMF terms and conditions are not likely acceptable to the present weak government which has to look at the citizenry with pitchforks in the front and also IK and his supporters with pitchforks in its back. They may prefer to default and take the path of least resistance by dissolving the government and announcing elections.

Default for a country like Pakistan can result in the death of the country. I doubt that IK would like the country to die otherwise he won't be able to rule again.

 

[Indos]

Either option you suggest there is impossible, for free markets mean competition, which cannot be allowed for fear of disturbing the favored entrenched monopolies, and government support will continue to be determined by nepotism and corruption, as always, and not by any other measure.

USA was also corrupt as we know there were Al Capone period there, being corrupt is actually the first phase a country should faces

The institution continuous reform that will become the solution. With institution reform there will likely be

1. Better decision making
2. Better leaders in its leadership level
3. Less corruption
4. Improve of ease of doing business
5. Better regulation
6. Better Credit Rating

Etc

First to reform institution is to raise their salary based on performance system (done already in Indonesia since 2004)

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Better democratic system like changing parlimentary system into Presidential system can be another step to take

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First step to start it all is to reduce the Defense Budget significantly. Retain Army strength but reduce Air Force strength with just current F16 and JF17. Use that money for institution reform and remedy Pakistan circular debt.

Enough already with Nuclear Bomb and missile stock pile

10 years after that, Defense budget will likely increase significantly due to bigger GDP and state revenue

 

[epebble]

Default for a country like Pakistan can result in the death of the country. I doubt that IK would like the country to die otherwise he won't be able to rule again.

No such thing. Default will lead to new paradigm: imports are limited to what can be bought with export earnings and remittances. It is like strict dieting but not starvation.

 

[VCheng]

The institution continuous reform that will become the solution.

The current system has evolved itself over decades to become what it is today, by design. Further evolution is therefore likely to be in the directions it has set for itself. Clearly.

 

[_NOBODY_]

As I said, let us just agree to give the situation some more time to evolve. It will be clearer soon enough.

Ok, but can you kindly explain why you so adamantly believe that the current environment cannot lead to substantive changes?

 

[VCheng]

Ok, but can you kindly explain why you so adamantly believe that the current environment cannot lead to substantive changes?

Please show me first how this current environment is any different than what has Pakistan gone though many times before, without any enduring or substantive changes.

 

[Indos]

The current system has evolved itself over decades to become what it is today, by design. Further evolution is therefore likely to be in the directions it has set for itself. Clearly.

Pakistan is a new nation and they still have enough capacity to reform, particularly by seeing the threat from raising India. I believe those in powers will some how start to change the system as well due to the threat.

USA is also changed because of there were threat from German and then USSR. External threat makes them reform.

Singapore I believe is pressured by the fact they are close to Indonesia as once Indonesia wants to grab their nation along with Malaysia.

Countries can make mistake in the past but human has capability to think and to have some kind of reform mind. There are many individuals that can change their past course into successful ones, as well as countries. It is just Pakistan has been late, being late doesnt mean Pakistan will not start reforming itself as India raise has become so eminent

 

[_NOBODY_]

Please show me first how this current environment is any different than what has Pakistan gone though many times before, without any enduring or substantive changes.

The country is on the brink of default, the IMF's conditions are harsher than ever before and inflation is the highest it has ever been in the country.

 

[VCheng]

The country is on the brink of default, the IMF's conditions are harsher than ever before and inflation is the highest it has ever been in the country.

All three conditions have been endured before.

Pakistan is a new nation and they still have enough capacity to reform, particularly by seeing the threat from raising India. I believe those in powers will some how start to change the system as well due to the threat.

USA is also changed because of there were threat from German and then USSR. External threat makes them reform.

Singapore I believe is pressured by the fact they are close to Indonesia as once Indonesia wants to grab their nation along with Malaysia.

Countries can make mistake in the past but human has capability to think and to have some kind of reform mind. There are many individuals that can change their past course into successful ones, as well as countries. It is just Pakistan has been late, being late doesnt mean Pakistan will not start reforming itself as India raise has become so eminent

And Pakistan is not any of the countries mentioned. Clearly.

 

[_NOBODY_]

All three conditions have been endured before.



And Pakistan is not any of the countries mentioned. Clearly.

This time they are far worse and the public pressure is also significantly greater.

 

[Dalit]

Boomer generals.

 

[VCheng]

This time they are far worse and the public pressure is also significantly greater.

LOL. Nope. that is just a perception on part of a certain demographic, that is all.

 

[datafreak]

There is no 'risk' of default. It will definitely default.

To avoid it there must have been some breakthrough with IMF weeks ago.