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Pakistan Icbm Missile Test In 2018 and 2019 Urdu & Hindi

The key thing is Pakistan's distance. NK is sitting just across the pond from them. With a total flight time of 30 mins, although they will have time to react, but you can say 'no defence is 100%'. In Pakistan's case, we are sitting on the other side of the world. They will have a lot of time to react. They definitely have space assets for tracking. Recently, they have been testing a space vehicle with unspecified functions that can stay for months at end. The prime feature is its maneuverability. I wouldn't be surprised if they have space based assets for destroying warheads. My friends have implied as much, but don't provide any details.

Secondly, we won't achieve full range in one test. It will be step-wise. Long before America is within range, we will end up threatening Europe and Australia inadvertently. And that is a very wrong move. At this point, we need nations speaking in our favor. Take the example of British opposition leader recently. We need more of that. Performing ICBM tests doesn't just send America a message, it sends the whole world a very wrong sort of message.

I am completely against ICBM tests at this stage. Of course, if America escalates further, there IS a tipping point where I will agree, but I don't think we have reached that point yet. What we need to be doing today, is actively work to diffuse American influence and the big game of encircling us. It is a mixture of subterfuge and diplomacy. A coordination between ISI and government is needed. And this is our single biggest weakness at the moment.

I concur, Pakistan does not need a ICBM test. What you guys need is at least 3000ks range SLBM obviously with required infrastructure for assured second strike capability. ICBM does not add anything instead it would antagonize so many countries, which I don't think would be in Pakistani interests especially in short to medium term future. People thinking about giving signal to yanks, just look at the location of Diego Garcia and make up your own mind. IMO, relevance of ICBM as a strategic weapon would be gone in next 20 years with advancement in direct energy weapons, and anyone entering in ICBM race now is already too late.
 
I concur, Pakistan does not need a ICBM test. What you guys need is at least 3000ks range SLBM obviously with required infrastructure for assured second strike capability. ICBM does not add anything instead it would antagonize so many countries, which I don't think would be in Pakistani interests especially in short to medium term future. People thinking about giving signal to yanks, just look at the location of Diego Garcia and make up your own mind. IMO, relevance of ICBM as a strategic weapon would be gone in next 20 years with advancement in direct energy weapons, and anyone entering in ICBM race now is already too late.

Almost nothing beats a saturation attack. By the time there are space based lasers, there will be laser warhead missiles as well to take out the lasers.

If Pakistan could get an arsenal overnight to perform a saturation attack on the US, I'd day go for it. But getting a few will be useless because US knows if we make the mistake of using them, we will be history.

It should be very obvious to all that NK has no power over US. It is playing a dangerous game of brinkmanship, and using SK and Japan as hostages. We should do well to avoid following in their footsteps.
 
Of course things have improved.

I wouldn't make that assumption. Boosted fission designs are often heavier, and of course can be scaled up as much as allowed. Agni-III's 2000+kg payload might house a larger and powerful fission device.


Well compared to the US of course both India and Pakistan haven't reached that level of miniaturization, let alone of 2-stage thermonuclear designs.

I thought you had calculated that the biconical nose was a smaller RV, common in design with Shaheen-IIIs RV.
So which one is it, a radar seeker or a RV?
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Well you can keep such assumptions to yourself. Its not like "Hey, lets put a 3-stage system together and fly it out to thousands of kilometers to check if the payload fairing works and third stage starts".
Test flights are expensive activities, and it is preferred to test everything that can be tested.
Hi @The Deterrent
Yeah there is no doubt that test flights are expensive activities but tests are planned in a phased manner. No country has tested a ballistic missile system right from adding a third stage, bulged payload fairing and also the bus in the very first trial itself-- especially a country with no prior experience of orbital maneuvers. Do you have any idea about the dynamical stability of the rocket with such a payload fairing. Perhaps I can assume that Pakistani scientists would have performed both CFD and actual wind tunnels tests on the vehicle before flying it.
Now, it is very very hard to believe Pakistan would have done all the tests, in the very first flight itself-- highly unlikely. The tests are more designed in a gradual manner. I highly doubt Pakistan, with no prior experience of orbital maneuvers would have pulled off all the trials in the first launch itself.

PS: I do not in any way imply that they cant do it, I merely disagree with the proposition that they would have flight tested everything from 3rd stage to the bus(especially this modified bus!) in the first launch itself!
 
Read the RV weight.
Obviously now Pakistan has warhead less than 700 kg in weight.
Because total RV mass is 850 kg .
 
Almost nothing beats a saturation attack. By the time there are space based lasers, there will be laser warhead missiles as well to take out the lasers.

If Pakistan could get an arsenal overnight to perform a saturation attack on the US, I'd day go for it. But getting a few will be useless because US knows if we make the mistake of using them, we will be history.

It should be very obvious to all that NK has no power over US. It is playing a dangerous game of brinkmanship, and using SK and Japan as hostages. We should do well to avoid following in their footsteps.

Saturation attacks looks good in theory but very hard to execute. You need planning for years with reasonable industrial capability just to accumulate good enough volume, and to sustain that effort if push come to shove for reasonable period, will require almost unlimited resources for any country.

I used to have NV2 level security clearance for work few years ago, so bit hamstrung in what I can disclose openly. Some of stuff Yanks are researching is not too far from movies. We can be be jealous or impressed, Americans were able to produce 100k aircrafts a year during WW2, and you can just imagine what they can do now. Other thing which most people discount is, when you fight yanks on any level, you need to fight their influence also. Give you an example, India was able to get NSG waiver even with Chinese being part of NSG, only because of yanks influence. Recent one, Trump was able to convince Chinese about cutting their coal imports from NK.

Don't think anyone has the ability to challenge Americans in next 30 years, after that may be China, however, I'm not sold on that either. Main reason, know some Chinese here in Melbourne at personal level, and very good friend of mine lived in China for 18 months, all I can say, there is systemic culture of numbers distortion and very opaque government, so very hard to gauge their true capabilities.

On a side note, good to know, someone posting stuff on PDF without their nationalistic blinkers on.
 
Read the RV weight.
Obviously now Pakistan has warhead less than 700 kg in weight.
Because total RV mass is 850 kg .
Also read the range & CEP. :P
Hi @The Deterrent
Yeah there is no doubt that test flights are expensive activities but tests are planned in a phased manner. No country has tested a ballistic missile system right from adding a third stage, bulged payload fairing and also the bus in the very first trial itself-- especially a country with no prior experience of orbital maneuvers. Do you have any idea about the dynamical stability of the rocket with such a payload fairing. Perhaps I can assume that Pakistani scientists would have performed both CFD and actual wind tunnels tests on the vehicle before flying it.
Now, it is very very hard to believe Pakistan would have done all the tests, in the very first flight itself-- highly unlikely. The tests are more designed in a gradual manner. I highly doubt Pakistan, with no prior experience of orbital maneuvers would have pulled off all the trials in the first launch itself.

PS: I do not in any way imply that they cant do it, I merely disagree with the proposition that they would have flight tested everything from 3rd stage to the bus(especially this modified bus!) in the first launch itself!
No country..., No prior experience..., Highly unlikely..., highly doubt..., disagree...
I'm amazed that you Indians just can't seem to absorb the shock(s). After all, how could a country become a robust nuclear & missile power, when it couldn't even make a (insert suitable low complexity tech of your choice here).
go-on-then-afr2ct.jpg


Arz kia hai:
Ibtada-e-Ishq Hai Rota Hai Kya
Aage aage dekhiye hota hai kya
:partay:
 
About NK, that is a mistaken assumption. NK's HS-14 ICBM flew 965 km downrange with an apogee of 3724 km. The reason for lofted trajectory test flights is the available testing space for initial tests. Anything greater than around 1000 km has to fly over Japan or China (while remaining clear of South Korea), so they need to be sure it won't crash midway. The HS-12 which flew over Japan was launched by their Strategic Artillery Forces as an exercise.
For an optimized trajectory, almost all western analysts are putting HS-14 at around 10,000km range, capable of hitting as far as New York. You can't dismiss this fact just by saying that they haven't tested it yet at full range. They most probably will as soon as they're confident that HS-14 is reliable enough.
They are very unlikely to test at full range, ever. Besides scaring the Americans shitless (never a good idea) it will end up near American waters, giving their undersea assets a chance to obtain intelligence from spent stages falling in deep ocean.
About Pakistan, the navigational warnings reveal a lot about trajectories. Rest assured, there is no hidden masala in Pakistani solid-fuel motors which we can activate to add 1000 more kilometers to the range. They are what they are.
No. Navigational warnings reveal a lot about the trajectory employed on the test. Not so much in the actual capabilities of the missile.
You are also wrong about what can and cannot be done with a solid fuel missile. The Posideon used the same third first and second stage as the later Trident C-4 weapon, but the later had 3000 km longer range and (IIRC) 30% greater throw weight. THis was accomplished inter-alia by by use of a smaller third stage (absent in Posideon). There is a lot we can do to increase the Shaheen series range. This includes longer burn time of the motor, accomplished by denser packing, more efficient propellent (something we have spent a lot of time and effort on), improved body (the first versions of the Shaheen were basically fibreglass, the newer ones are composite material) addition upper stages, the addition of an aerospike (already done), better nozzels (already seen with Shaheen III). Everything comes with its own engineering challenges. But I can assure your, if and when Pakistan tests an ICBM, it will be basically based on Shaheen II/III. Making incremental improvements provides far greater performance than building a new missile every second day

More inaccuracies here, elaborated below.
Pakistan has:
1. No penetration aids as of present.
2. High Speed RVs (MRBM-class, no big deal, speed is a result of propulsion required for longer range).
3. No MaRVs (capable of maneuvering INSIDE atmosphere) as of present.
4. Faster response & launch times (absolutely true).
5. No capability to hit hard targets (as no MaRVs available for precision strikes) as of present.
6. Secure comms (no big deal, a must for nuclear command and control)
1) Yes we do. Chaff, decoys have been tested. While we don't have (yet) active penetration aids, no once else does either (except maybe the newer SS-27).
2) Thats not what high speed RV's are. You are mixing up max-speed during coast and with terminal velocity, basically the speed the RV is going when it strikes (this is different frophysicalal terminal velocity, which ideally a fast RV never reaches). Once RV renters, it tend to slow down due to the atmosphere. Typically it slows from its max speed, to sub-sonic before striking. A high speed RV will instead strike at very high (3-5) Mach numbers, reducing the time its exposed to ABM fire. To accomplish this requires special shielding for thermal effects as well as protection from the shockwave. We have demonstrated this, the NORKs are nowhere near doing so.
3) MaRV inside the atmosphere, IIRC Ghaznavi has displayed that. Shaheen series employs high speed RV as alluded above, which precludes atmospheric MaRV, but not exo-atmospheric ones, which reduce effectiveness of ABM.
4).Faster means minutes from cold to launch. As well as rapidly retargeting and being able to launch or less from anywhere, rather than merely prepared areas. (our missiles TEL can stop, erect, launch from any position)
North Korea has to launch from a pre-surveyed site only.

5) Shaheen has a CEP of 200m, which (presuming a 50 kt warhead) will place any target inside its blast crater or well inside (presuming a 100KT warhead which is more likely). So yes, we do have a hard target kill capability. Ae also have earth-penetrator warheads. Though on shorter-range missiles.

6) Its an extremely big deal., Secure comms mean secure and reliable comms in a nuclear senario. Meaning comms which are hardened, and redundant against direct hits and useable in the intense x-ray radiation of a nuclear war. We have that (and so does India), which means we can make adjustments on the fly in our war plans. The NORKs will have to stick to pre-planned targets, meaning only soft targets like cities,

1. No penetration aids as of present.
2. Much higher speed RVs (ICBM-class).
3. MaRV (tested aboard HS-5G [KN-18][derivative of Scud-C], essentially Pershing-II type MaRV for precision strikes, potential ASBM)
4. Much slower response & launch times (liquid-fueled systems)
5. Capability to hit hard targets with precision. (see #3)
6. Secure comms (no big deal, a must for nuclear command and control)
1) None yes.probably working on chaff and balloons.
2) No. They use blunt RV's which has a sub-sonic pre-impact velocity.
3) Did not know, thanks.
4) Yup and they have no ability to attack time sensitibe targets and make adjustments on the fly
5) Crappy accuracy precludes that. I think their CEP is approximatley 1 mile at best and for longer range, literally, a city/
6 They have hardened, redundant comms? Sufficient to withstand the heavy radiation of a nuclear war?

 
They are very unlikely to test at full range, ever. Besides scaring the Americans shitless (never a good idea) it will end up near American waters, giving their undersea assets a chance to obtain intelligence from spent stages falling in deep ocean.
Well just today they flew HS-12 over Japan again, and splashed it down 3700 km downrange (with an apogee of 770 km). This was their longest-range missile test so far, and quite close to the predicted maximum range of 4400 km (calculated when they launched it in May at a lofted trajectory).
The Kim regime has nothing to lose, it seems. Till now they have taken every chance to prove themselves, and if the US continues to put pressure on them, they might even do a live nuclear demonstration launch via the HS-14 ICBM. Here is an article you might find interesting.
http://www.npr.org/sections/paralle...-nuclear-tests-could-get-even-more-terrifying

No. Navigational warnings reveal a lot about the trajectory employed on the test. Not so much in the actual capabilities of the missile.
I meant that for the test trajectory only. Of course it doesn't means that the missile will follow the same trajectory every time, actual capabilities may vary (for instance, executing evasive maneuvers in mid-course phase).

You are also wrong about what can and cannot be done with a solid fuel missile. The Posideon used the same third first and second stage as the later Trident C-4 weapon, but the later had 3000 km longer range and (IIRC) 30% greater throw weight. THis was accomplished inter-alia by by use of a smaller third stage (absent in Posideon). There is a lot we can do to increase the Shaheen series range. This includes longer burn time of the motor, accomplished by denser packing, more efficient propellent (something we have spent a lot of time and effort on), improved body (the first versions of the Shaheen were basically fibreglass, the newer ones are composite material) addition upper stages, the addition of an aerospike (already done), better nozzels (already seen with Shaheen III). Everything comes with its own engineering challenges. But I can assure your, if and when Pakistan tests an ICBM, it will be basically based on Shaheen II/III. Making incremental improvements provides far greater performance than building a new missile every second day
Again, I was referring to the PRESENT systems only. I meant to convey that Shaheen-III (for example), in its present form, can only go up to the range it was designed for i.e. ~2750km.
The improvements (lighter RV, efficient solid fuel, composite stages) are of course the technologies implemented to go from Shaheen-I to IA, and Shaheen-II to III. Just wanted to point out that fiberglass(?) is itself a composite type IIRC, but Shaheen series (I/II) motor casings have always been made of maraging steel. Also, the aerospike is only present on Ghaznavi, which is an SRBM.
I do however agree that if Pakistan decides to develop a 5500+ km range system (i.e. an ICBM), it will be based on the Shaheen series. For the foreseeable future, it won't happen. But there is still a lot of room between 2750 & 5500 km that needs attention.

1) Yes we do. Chaff, decoys have been tested. While we don't have (yet) active penetration aids, no once else does either (except maybe the newer SS-27).
Pakistan hasn't tested any penetration aids yet, you've likely been misinformed.

2) Thats not what high speed RV's are. You are mixing up max-speed during coast and with terminal velocity, basically the speed the RV is going when it strikes (this is different frophysicalal terminal velocity, which ideally a fast RV never reaches). Once RV renters, it tend to slow down due to the atmosphere. Typically it slows from its max speed, to sub-sonic before striking. A high speed RV will instead strike at very high (3-5) Mach numbers, reducing the time its exposed to ABM fire. To accomplish this requires special shielding for thermal effects as well as protection from the shockwave. We have demonstrated this, the NORKs are nowhere near doing so.
Agreed on the terminal velocities (before impact). NK RVs are truly more blunt, and likely decelerate below Mach 3 before impact. So yeah, in that sense Pakistan does have higher (terminal) speed RVs, i.e. they have a higher beta-coefficient IIRC.

3) MaRV inside the atmosphere, IIRC Ghaznavi has displayed that. Shaheen series employs high speed RV as alluded above, which precludes atmospheric MaRV, but not exo-atmospheric ones, which reduce effectiveness of ABM.
Nope, Ghaznavi's fins are fixed and cannot be actuated. They provide stability only.

4).Faster means minutes from cold to launch. As well as rapidly retargeting and being able to launch or less from anywhere, rather than merely prepared areas. (our missiles TEL can stop, erect, launch from any position)
North Korea has to launch from a pre-surveyed site only.
Agreed as far as Pakistan is concerned. North Koreans likely utilize pre-surveyed sites, but they have also tested SLBMs, so they might also have the capability to launch from any location.

5) Shaheen has a CEP of 200m, which (presuming a 50 kt warhead) will place any target inside its blast crater or well inside (presuming a 100KT warhead which is more likely). So yes, we do have a hard target kill capability. Ae also have earth-penetrator warheads. Though on shorter-range missiles.
I was referring to conventional warheads. Sure, a nuke is more capable of hard kills.
Having earth-penetrating warheads on SRBMs is of less use unless they are precise as well.

6) Its an extremely big deal., Secure comms mean secure and reliable comms in a nuclear senario. Meaning comms which are hardened, and redundant against direct hits and useable in the intense x-ray radiation of a nuclear war. We have that (and so does India), which means we can make adjustments on the fly in our war plans. The NORKs will have to stick to pre-planned targets, meaning only soft targets like cities,
Well since secure & hardened comms form the essence of deterrence, and every nuclear weapons state has them, its sort of a must-have-by-default thing. We shouldn't assume that North Korea is behind in that aspect, they have acquired much more sophisticated technologies than that.

1) None yes.probably working on chaff and balloons.
2) No. They use blunt RV's which has a sub-sonic pre-impact velocity.
3) Did not know, thanks.
4) Yup and they have no ability to attack time sensitibe targets and make adjustments on the fly
5) Crappy accuracy precludes that. I think their CEP is approximatley 1 mile at best and for longer range, literally, a city/
6 They have hardened, redundant comms? Sufficient to withstand the heavy radiation of a nuclear war?
6) I believe so, since it is not a very complex technology. They would have easily sourced it from China or Russia.
Agreed on all the rest.
 
We have everything we need to build an ICBM validated & ready. Its like putting Lego pieces together when the dire need arrives.
how do you know that?do you have the rocket?or guidance?how do you know the parts are ready?

We have more than ICBM ,:toast_sign:
as?

I don't agree with that....

The second gravest threat to our security after internal issues is not India.... there is only one power in the world that can even think of war with an established nuclear state .... and it's not India ( sory to break Indian hearts here)
that power is currently getting hooked up by marshal kim jong un back and forth every day,that power will only "think of war" with nuclear state when they are assured of their adversary cant hit their a*s with nuke back in their home,when you can do that,that power starts whining.

Your ICBMs will be easily intercepted by USA. They have been preparing for these types of threats for half a century now. My American friends tell me they have no fears of an ICBM. What would be nightmarish is Russia/China overwhelming them with ICBMs. One, or a few will not matter.

What we really do need, is a nuclear powered submarine, armed with ICBMs. So, first step, nuclear powered submarine. Until that time, use diplomacy.
they will intercept everything,in hollywood movies. :rofl:
There is no defense against icbm.The defense you are claiming has less than 50% chance at one-one interception in battlefield condition(that is without multiple re-entry).ICBM defense is a hoax.
 
Guys think of it this way... even we don't need ICBM it is an important leap in technology for the country to build them. These ICBMs can later be modified to space launch vehicles. We all know in the coming decades warfare will go to space and if we start building ICBMs then, we will be really behind our competitors.



That being said no military advancement should be done that takes funding away from health and education. We need to educate our population on a war footing. Every kid born has to have minimum matriculation enforced by law. Only then we will advance as a nation.
 
Its not that simple, it would take YEARS to develop a reliable barely-ICBM (~5000km range), if that decision is taken. However, Pakistan has no such plans for the foreseeable future.
Not years...If we get desperate, we will probably add another motor as we have done in the past in missiles to extend their range.
Exactly, all Pakistan can manage right now can only be termed as Jugaad.
But the 'Jugaad' we do is quite extensive. Though mostly internally, we do get the Sh*t done.

Despite the common belief, Pakistan only received Nodongs (Ghauris) and DF-11s (Ghaznavis) with complete ToT. Almost everything else has been developed using them as base technologies, and minimal support from China. And after the AQK fiasco, China almost permanently shut the doors on Pakistan as far as 'critical' technologies were concerned. Without such support, its extremely difficult to develop these technologies from scratch. It takes a LOT of time and money to develop mature & reliable systems like the G-5 have today.
Agreed. Not to over praise our engineers, but they are given very less credit than they deserve by most of us and the knowledgeable foreigners. We did quite good on our own.
I do however agree that if Pakistan decides to develop a 5500+ km range system (i.e. an ICBM), it will be based on the Shaheen series. For the foreseeable future, it won't happen. But there is still a lot of room between 2750 & 5500 km that needs attention.
We have successfully extended the ranges before, we can make the Shaheen (?[4]) an ICBM(though, less than 6500 at max)
Well since secure & hardened comms form the essence of deterrence, and every nuclear weapons state has them, its sort of a must-have-by-default thing. We shouldn't assume that North Korea is behind in that aspect, they have acquired much more sophisticated technologies than that.
But what about the rumors that US sabotaged few missile tests of NK by covert cyber attacks?
On Pakistan, I was assured that at least on operational missiles, Cyber attack is of no worry to us. though, I fear that while testing our Missiles, Cyber theft of the data we are collecting during the testing can be taken by the surveillance/ other equipments...
 
how do you know that?do you have the rocket?or guidance?how do you know the parts are ready?


as?


that power is currently getting hooked up by marshal kim jong un back and forth every day,that power will only "think of war" with nuclear state when they are assured of their adversary cant hit their a*s with nuke back in their home,when you can do that,that power starts whining.


they will intercept everything,in hollywood movies. :rofl:
There is no defense against icbm.The defense you are claiming has less than 50% chance at one-one interception in battlefield condition(that is without multiple re-entry).ICBM defense is a hoax.

Keep living in your deluded world.
 
Even after Turmp speech you think we don't need ICBM than nothing can change your mind. Sooner or later USA will come after us and we better be prepared to strike any where we want other wise we are doomed


After Trump Speech Yes we need also need to increase nuclear arsenal massively

Conflict with the the US is inevitable. It's been on the cards for a long time.
 
Conflict with the the US is inevitable. It's been on the cards for a long time.
Unlikely, bro.

Bigger issue is seemingly continuous harassment along LOC in Kashmir from across the border.
 

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