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Pakistan holds the key to peace in post-US Afghanistan

Afghanistan’s President Hamid Karzai’s visit to New Delhi last week may have conveyed the impression that it was a backlash against Islamabad with whom he had heated exchanges, accusing it of carrying out the assassination of Burhanuddin Rabbani, the head of the Afghan Peace Council. Rabbani was a key figure in the Karzai regime and his assassination resulted in Karzai immediately flying back home from New York.

Karzai accused the Pakistan military of planning out the attack from Quetta in Pakistan which Pakistan denied. Rabbani was not only the chief Afghan negotiator but also Karzai’s chief negotiator in building bridges between the rival Pushtuns and non Pushtun and other ethnic groups. Karzai called off peace negotiations with the Taliban after the Rabbani killing.

Karzai shaky:

Karzai’s position as head of the Afghan state has been very shaky following recent daring attacks by the Taliban in Kabul and the rest of the country killing key personalities in the government. Karzai’s allies, the United States and Britain and some European countries too are disenchanted with his ability to head an effective government free of corruption.

The United States is very concerned with the ability of Karzai to hold Afghanistan together after the scheduled pull out of US troops from the country.

It is under such circumstances that the New Delhi visit was undertaken. It may have conveyed the impression to some that he was attempting to draw in India as a counter force to Pakistan but such an impression would not have been made on the key players involved – America, Pakistan, other European allies or even China.

India’s interests:

India has certainly attempted to make inroads into Afghanistan by going into infrastructure development such as building of key roads and even the Afghan parliament. Over a billion dollars of investments have been made. The Taliban have has strongly resisted the Indian entry into Afghanistan and even accepted responsibility for the August 2008 bombing of the Indian Embassy in Kabul that killed over 40 people including the Indian defence attaché. A second bombing of the Kabul embassy followed in 2009 that resulted in the killing of 17 people and wounding of 63. It is quite unlikely that despite the strategic partnership agreements signed between the two countries during the Karzai visit which included training of Afghan security personnel by Indian forces, India would risk the wrath of the fanatical fundamentalist Taliban groups or Pakistan’s intelligence forces; Afghanistan being considered by Pakistan as its sphere of influence vis-à-vis India. It is no secret that Pakistan’s intelligence forces set up the Taliban in Afghanistan to create a‘strategic depth’ for their country against India.

India as a regional and emerging global power would want to establish its presence in the neighbourhood. It would be extremely naïve for it to take on the role – which the Soviet Union, a one time super power that failed in the task – with now the only superpower, America, trying to disengage itself.

India’s problems:

India despite having the fourth largest army in the world is yet unable to ward off terrorist attacks which they allege are emanating from Pakistan. Afghanistan and Pakistan have been fertile grounds for nurturing terrorism in the past two decades. And any provocation provided to fanatical Islamist groups by ‘Hindu India’ would be inviting retaliation.

The end of the Afghan war against the Soviet Union saw the proliferation of Islamic terrorism within Afghanistan. When Soviet forces withdrew and Americans and countries like Saudi Arabia which had been financing the Islamic groups too lost interest in the future of Afghanistan ,that led to the growth of fundamentalist groups like the Al-Qaeda of Osama bin Laden. Some of these militants hell bent on ‘liberating’ Kashmir went through Pakistan into the regions close to Indian controlled Kashmir. Indian authorities allege that Pakistan gave sanctuary to these terrorists and helped to build up terrorist groups.

U.S. pull out and its implications.

Even though the call for American troops to pull out of Afghanistan is not only supported in Afghanistan and Pakistan but among sections in most South Asian countries; if the Americans do pull out of Afghanistan leaving a vacuum in power, would history be repeated as after the Soviet pull out? The Obama plan is to pull out all troops by 2014.

What happens then? Afghanistan is the cockpit of the world with very powerful nations around it: China, Pakistan, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran and some of the former Soviet Republics. Should they leave Afghanistan as one of the least developed and impoverished countries to itself? That is quite unlikely because in recent times its strategic importance has increased. Through it has to pass oil and gas pipelines which global and regional powers are interested in.

It could also provide a gateway to China through Pakistan to the Indian Ocean and now it has been found to be a country extremely rich in mineral resources.

Unconquered:

Poor Afghans, will they be able to ever have their own country and govern themselves? One fact however they have proved to the world: Afghanistan has remained unconquered throughout history.

India Can
 
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Poor Afghans, will they be able to ever have their own country and govern themselves? One fact however they have proved to the world: Afghanistan has remained unconquered throughout history.
Well then, Shouldn't Pakistan be worried too? It therefore will not be easy for the Pakistani Establishment to install a pliable regime in Afghanistan. Pro Taliban Pashtuns may be in a majority, but then there are myriad other ethnic groups like the Tajiks who'll be averse to being 'ruled' by the Pashtuns/Taliban.

So it's not only Iran, the CIS Republics, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and China who'll want a piece of the pie but also the many ethnic groups and war lords who'll be spokes in the wheel for an amicable solution. The Pakistan Army's simplistic view of being able to install the Taliban at the helm in Afghanistan for its doctrine of strategic depth is easier said than done. The geostrategic imperatives are too complex for a military mind to fully comprehend.

I wouldn't be surprised if this conflict spills well into the next decade. And caught in the crossfire is the poor ordinary Afghan. It seems their lives will never change for the better.

In today's world, power games take precedence over the lives of ordinary mortals.
 
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Poor Afghans, will they be able to ever have their own country and govern themselves? One fact however they have proved to the world: Afghanistan has remained unconquered throughout history.

you see, this is the very wrong notion given to us by people who dont wana see us prosperous, keep us busy fighting in our own home and destroy it, the truth is, we have been conquered and ruled in the past by the others. Being ruled/conquered or not, shouldntnt be the issue, what a nation achieve should be the focus which we have lacked. Forget about the long history of the country which was conquered and ruled, even in its recent history, Afghanistan have been conquered and ruled for the past 40 years through direct and indirect invasions.
 
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pakistan has no footing in afganistan's economy , culture , politics , policies..
pakistan is a suppoert of small-small armed groups at afgan-pakistan boarder areas which are considered now as just a troble maker in afganistan ...
where to replace pakistn in afganistan...?
 
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India is not trying to replace Pak in Afghanistan since we dont want to end up having the same fate as what Pakistan is facing now vis-a-vis Afghan ..... India just wants to train Afghan soldiers so that Afghani soldiers can replace Pakistanis in Afghanistan ... !!!

if you get what i am saying !!!
 
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India is not trying to replace Pak in Afghanistan since we dont want to end up having the same fate as what Pakistan is facing now vis-a-vis Afghan ..... India just wants to train Afghan soldiers so that Afghani soldiers can replace Pakistanis in Afghanistan ... !!!

if you get what i am saying !!!

Wrong.. USA and other NATO countries know how to train ANA... Its not like only IA can train Afghan.

Its all about India who wish to jump into Afghan to use its influence in Afghanistan against Pakistan. Its a real world not Bollywood.
 
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India is not trying to replace Pak in Afghanistan since we dont want to end up having the same fate as what Pakistan is facing now vis-a-vis Afghan ..... India just wants to train Afghan soldiers so that Afghani soldiers can replace Pakistanis in Afghanistan ... !!!

if you get what i am saying !!!
As I said somewhere else, we would love to see the micro power achieve what the Super powers couldn't in decades. :rolleyes:
The danger and a good chance is that those so called Pakistanis in Afghanistan, after seeing off the Russians and Americans may turn their attention on the new adventurers. ;)
 
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Wrong.. USA and other NATO countries know how to train ANA... Its not like only IA can train Afghan.

Its all about India who wish to jump into Afghan to use its influence in Afghanistan against Pakistan. Its a real world not Bollywood.

I Can understand your frustration , however Musharraf himself had said that Afghan rejected his offer and instead have chosen India over pak WRT training part ...Also Pak doesnt have this kind of influence on Afghan which it intended to have after decades of groundwork for the achieving same .... Pak doesnt even have a similar pact to that of what India has with Afg .... Its time Pak realises the changed situation and humbly live with it !!!

That is the real world !
 
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As I said somewhere else, we would love to see the micro power achieve what the Super powers couldn't in decades. :rolleyes:
The danger and a good chance is that those so called Pakistanis in Afghanistan, after seeing off the Russians and Americans may turn their attention on the new adventurers. ;)

Breaking news: Their attention is already turned.. and your frontier areas are not enjoying it much :D
 
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you know whats pakistani problem is they think they can take panga withanyone & get away with it but every time they do it they get a very bad&ugly result(afghanistan)and all there problems are not because of there own idiotic ,stupid &short sighted policies but RAW, CIA & MOSSAD conspiracy but one day maseeha will come & ghazwa e hind will happen & they will live happily ever after:hitwall:
 
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Breaking news: Their attention is already turned.. and your frontier areas are not enjoying it much :D

Damn...never knew certain countries had their Embassies near the frontier. ;)
However, the real breaking news is that as of today, Education institutions have reopened in the most of FATA areas. :)
 
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pakistan has no footing in afganistan's economy , culture , politics , policies..
pakistan is a suppoert of small-small armed groups at afgan-pakistan boarder areas which are considered now as just a troble maker in afganistan ...
where to replace pakistn in afganistan...?

You seriously need to learn and get knowledge about the highlighted part.
 
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