Pakistan F-16 Discussions 2

[fatman17]

Yes jf -17 will make a lot of difference when it comes to number game in any ofence situation with other country and we can upgrade it much as we want and also through export we can earn a lot of money so JF-17 is future backbone of PAF...............

mumbers game is not enough. you need force multiplyers. the JFT will eventually be a force multiplyer as it develops further.

 

[Manticore]

 

[Chogy]

Mr.Chogy, We have never doubted the F-16 capabilities. It's one hell of a fighter. We love to see them in our inventory But

the anger you see here is w.r.t Uncertain behavior of America supplying Spare parts of F-16 in all conditions. Any Ugly turn in Relation Between Pak-America first thing to hit will be F-16 Spare parts chain.

And for me, My Anger is directed towards Not giving DFRM with F-16 block 52, whereas when Indian were offered F-16, DFRM was already in that package. I don't understand this weird logic.

So the Uncertain Spare parts delivery plus not giving certain technologies with F-16 when Next door neighbor was allowed to have them plus Dictating how to Use F-16 is what making Us angry towards new procurement.

There's certainly a lot of angst and anger over certain aspects of the deal. It's way over our "pay grades" and we can speculate, but that's all it is. I do want to emphasize again that restrictions aren't there to make the F-16 less lethal, they exist because of very sensitive technology.

It's like your neighbor borrowing your car, and you loan him your new Mercedes instead of a beat up old Toyota... you trust him with it.

Like I mentioned, the AIM-120 is HUGE. We sold them to Pakistan, NOT Egypt. That's saying a lot.

 

[Donatello]

There's certainly a lot of angst and anger over certain aspects of the deal. It's way over our "pay grades" and we can speculate, but that's all it is. I do want to emphasize again that restrictions aren't there to make the F-16 less lethal, they exist because of very sensitive technology.

It's like your neighbor borrowing your car, and you loan him your new Mercedes instead of a beat up old Toyota... you trust him with it.

Like I mentioned, the AIM-120 is HUGE. We sold them to Pakistan, NOT Egypt. That's saying a lot.

I like your analysis, but however, please note that AIM 120s were forced in by PAF. No point in getting BLK 52 class fighter without a BVR weapon to arm it!!!!
Also, that was 2005, when the Musharraf was offering USA anything that the Americans could dream of. Relations weren't as sour as today.

 

[MastanKhan]

AIM 120 is a gift which levels out the playing field-----it is a game changer----. It should be understood that nothing is forced upon the united states----. They felt that there was an urgent need to balance out the things in the sub-continent---because the ill effects of a one sided conflict would be terrible----.

Why did they not give it to egypt----there was no need to level the field-----. A conflict would be contained and stay within the local area---with no ill effects to the rest of the world. Procurements like the aim120 hold a special meaning in a relationship---and it falls more so on the receiver to understand the significance of the sale.

It is on the same level as a condemned man gets to live----pakistan and pakistanis need to learn to thank the favours they have received from america.

 

[IceCold]

Like I mentioned, the AIM-120 is HUGE. We sold them to Pakistan, NOT Egypt. That's saying a lot.

With all due respect sir i tend to disagree. The US only allowed the sale of AMRAAM once the market of BVR was open to us. R-darter as per reports is in service with the PAF. I wouldnt count SD-10 as we cannot integrate it into a US built jet. Its not that i dont appreciate the sale of AMRAAM, just setting the record straight.
By the way Pakistan was also interested in the MICA for the JF-17 back then.

 

[araz]

So, in your estimation Pakistan policy makers will not be able to get a handle on Extremism 00 after all, other than the extremists, whom do we seek conflict with ?? And if we are not seeking conflict with any other than terrorism and terrorists, why exactly....?

The Indian is pinning his hopes on US investment in his economy and neither US nor India want to see that investment up in flames -- so I'm not quite sure why we need to spend this money and make ourselves hostage in this 8 year period till 2020? Perhaps you will elaborate on your thinking

Muse.
What I think of the prospect of future war/wars in the region is beyond the scope of the F16 discussion at hand. However, looking purely at the PAF current fleet it needs modernization and keeping a credible deterrance against our main adversary. I am all for peace, but you know as well as anyone else that peace from a position of defence has an entirely different connotation to peace from a position of respectability. All that i am saying is that there are issues around the acquisition of FC20 which remain undefined, but may relate to the engine issue. If that is the case you could land your self in a very tricky situation relying on just the thunder in case of adversity.
This leads you to the next question of what is plausible for PAF in the current environment . If you exclude the FC20 the next answer has to be F16s if we can get them.
Even if we explore the option of embargo, it would boil down to a decent number of planes being kept in service by PAF , even if it means cannabolization. However, you need to realize that on the black it is much more likely to get spares for F16s than any other plane purely due to use by other vendors.
I know why people are against the acquisition but this must be looked at in the light of all the aspects I have highlighted.
I hope I have been a bit more clearer.
Araz

 

[muse]

Thank you for your reply - I remain unpersuaded that F16 and the US is the way to go - I do take your point with regard to Engine problems with FC20, but to jump from the frying pan into the fire -- Anything that has to do with security, so long as US is involved, is just poison - it's a unnecessary gamble - if the US is now when it refers to us as a major non-Nato ally, (and Frenemy) is engaged in maligning the Pakistan armed forces and the Pakistan state, what hope is there for any sense that relations can be normal.

The blackmail the US has engaged in, is something we can avoid, we must seek better relations with India and to bring the vision of a region in which Pakistan, India and China see their interests in cooperation rather than this US inspired antagonism.

Peace from a position of respectability is always preferred, however, aligning with so irrational, so fanatic, a policy like that of the US, not just respectability but defense of the nation itself is imperiled. Time to let the US go her own way and take her F16's with her.

 

[araz]

sir all this big money and risk purchase cannot be based on a rumor about the J-10B being shelved.
we all have gone through many reports claiming that the J-10B procurement is well on track.

as danger zone have out it, no one will advise going gambling in these crunch economic times!
well that my point of view. i agree with MUSE and Danger Zone. there is no hurry, we must wait for the J-10B to materialize and keep our fingures crossed that the existing fleet is not grounded due to spares issues in coming time and the MLU and STAR upgrade keep on track.
with the elections approaching, i sense lot is going to change in near future!

Arsalan
We are all arm chair Generals so your view is as valuable as anyone elses. I am merely quoting the ACM of PAF and not some unnamed source and you have read the news as well as me. No one is denying that the FC20 is well on track and the capabilities will eventually be on par and perhaps better than F16s. However, there are 3 objectives at hand here.
1) The time frame: No one is talking about the time frame in which FC20 will be acquired.Even though there is a recent MOU for FC20s , we have had one in place since the last 4-5 yrs. What has prevented PAF from acquiring the platform since then? There has to be a reason. Do we know it? The answer has to be NO!! Secondly even if we order F16s today it will take 3yrs for delivery. How do you think our inventory will be in 3 yrs time. Now if you apply the same logic to say theFC20 will be deployed in 3yrs time, we will still need the time to develop an understanding of the plane and devlop strategies based on its strengths and weaknessses. However we have sufficient manpower trained on a plane that we already know well in the F16s
2) Capabilities: No one is denying that the chinese are advancing by leaps and bounds every day. However, there have been some glaring deficiencies which have been quite obvious for quite some time. A) Engine development and B) BVR missiles. PAF has long lacked the capability for BVR combat and only just acquired it with AIM 120C5. Why have we not gone for the chinese option from before inspite of the fact that the SD10 has been around for some time. We are now talking of SD10A and B as a future prospect only because the missiles are now becoming advanced enough. It goes to show that the US tech is providing us capabilites and valuable experience not only in these fields but with their fantastic pods which we did not have before.
3) The next step:For PAF the FC20 is the next step in capabilities and they will not go down that route till the MRCA contract is firmed up and the capabilites are known.Two PAF ACMs have been on record as saying that the fc20 will be structured to counter the MRCA contender. I strongly suspect PAF will only place an order after the MRCA contract is finalized. So we need something for the interim, which F16 serves admirably well. You also have to look at diversity (within limits ). From that point of view as well F16 seems a very good platform for us.
Araz

 

[muse]

I think there may be some misunderstanding -- the argument and points raised by distinguished forum member Araz, are all valid - and together they make a strong case for the F16 -- But these arguments do not account for the REALITY that the supplier has in place a policy which will continue to see relations between Pakistan and the US, deteriorate, in fact this is a given.

The Pakistan that US policy seeks to fashion is a Pakistan that the people of Pakistan will not accept, the geo-strategic environment that the US policy seeks to fashion, the eventualities it seeks to create, are not acceptable to the people of Pakistan and are in fact a mortal danger to the state of Pakistan.

The F16 is a marvelous aircraft, the PAF have experience with this ship, the infrastructure to operate and maintain this weapon system is already in place -- but what about US policy?

The argument that these aircraft offer a capability that engenders sobriety into an adversary - unimpeachable, no question about that - but what about the US policy?

And when this weapon system and the capability it offers is actually needed -- what assurance that we can actually avail these capabilities over the range of time we need them -- again, we come back to US policy.

It is time to be sober, lets not go for this pie in the sky -- lets not allow ourselves to be blackmailed into turning over our defense to those whose hostility towards us is manifest for all to see. Lets allow them to go their way, our interests are on parallel tracks, lets recognize that and plan to attenuate threats.

 

[araz]

Muse
Thank you for your response. I have never denied the difficulties that have traditionally existed with allying with the US. However the fact is that we have done so. The stupidity of this, although undeniable, is a fact that we have to live with.
We have had this cat and mouse game of blame and shame going on for a decade while underneath the table it has been business as usual ala US and Pakistani style. In this environment we have received capabilites which we desperately needed and in many ways we have achieved some of our objectives. So it has not all been bad.
Relations with India are not as straight forward as you think there are complexities mainly borne out of the kashmir dispute. I dare say at the expense of starting another flame war, that the issue will not be resolved anytime soon and the offshoot of it is something that will still paint this soil red in the future! While I am the last to suggest an aggressive posture and the first to go for peace, i think it is wishful thinking. So while we must always hope and pray and act to achieve the best , we would be negligent not to be prepared for the worst.
Lets get back to F16s. HOW we LOVE AND HATE THE BEAST SIMULTANEOUSLY!!!
Regards
Araz

 

[muse]

Lets get back to F16s. HOW we LOVE AND HATE THE BEAST SIMULTANEOUSLY!!!

Indeed, Alas, it's not possible to do so, without reference to the ever present US policy, is it?

 

[araz]

I think there may be some misunderstanding -- the argument and points raised by distinguished forum member Araz, are all valid - and together they make a strong case for the F16 -- But these arguments do not account for the REALITY that the supplier has in place a policy which will continue to see relations between Pakistan and the US, deteriorate, in fact this is a given.

The Pakistan that US policy seeks to fashion is a Pakistan that the people of Pakistan will not accept, the geo-strategic environment that the US policy seeks to fashion, the eventualities it seeks to create, are not acceptable to the people of Pakistan and are in fact a mortal danger to the state of Pakistan.

The F16 is a marvelous aircraft, the PAF have experience with this ship, the infrastructure to operate and maintain this weapon system is already in place -- but what about US policy?

The argument that these aircraft offer a capability that engenders sobriety into an adversary - unimpeachable, no question about that - but what about the US policy?

And when this weapon system and the capability it offers is actually needed -- what assurance that we can actually avail these capabilities over the range of time we need them -- again, we come back to US policy.

It is time to be sober, lets not go for this pie in the sky -- lets not allow ourselves to be blackmailed into turning over our defense to those whose hostility towards us is manifest for all to see. Lets allow them to go their way, our interests are on parallel tracks, lets recognize that and plan to attenuate threats.

Muse
I assure you that the situation is not at all to my liking either. However, we are caught between the devil and the deep blue sea (Or the Arabian Sea!!). The supplier is no doubt a problem in its own right, but then this has always remained a question of mutual interests. To date the reason Pakistan has not acquessed to the US demands points to the reality that we are fighting out for our personal interests as well. What these are and whether it is a wise move can be debated till the cows come home , and i assure you no right answer will emerge. Needless to say, ouleaders were put into a position where it was considered a must to comply with the wishes of the master. Since then it has been a war of mutual interests where we have lost most but not all the battles.
The policies towards AfPak and specially towards Pakistan are unlikely to change as the agenda is predetermined. We probably have also bided our time and slowly maneouvered int oa position from where we can mount a defence. To say that the embargo will affect us as badly as it did in the 80s would be wrong. By delivering Bl 52s and all the asociated goodies, US has effectively ceeded the fact that the embargoes will not work now.
So the logic works in a very weird way .
I am sorry cant be more elaborate , but I hope you are gettting the drift.
Araz

 

[muse]

To say that the embargo will affect us as badly as it did in the 80s would be wrong. By delivering Bl 52s and all the asociated goodies, US has effectively ceeded the fact that the embargoes will not work now.
So the logic works in a very weird way .
I am sorry cant be more elaborate , but I hope you are gettting the drift.

I do get your drift - but truthfully, I worry, this is a unnecessary gamble - once again, held hostage by these people - and Sir, I genuinely think that Pakistan armed forces misread the sentiment among people - and they misread it to their misfortune - It is no longer unimaginable that the orientation and ethic of the armed forces, is called into question.

 

[Patriot]

I agree with Muse - I was in 100% favor of F16's but i don't think it is a good choice for PAF now (Not the fighter itself but the political situation is fluid).Look at the IED Factory Blame, JOurnalist Killing Blame put on Pakistan by US and then arrest of Kashmir's lobbyists who worked for Pakistan.I think US is taking the game personal (As Bruce Ridel The pig who reviewed strategy for Pakistan and AFghanistan for Obama said in a video that we should make it personal with PAkistan ARmy and make sure they do what we want.)So I doubt we will even get the next F-16's.I think time is coming soon for another round of sanctions from US unless we absorb the pressure and do what the US wants.